★年底结汇潮过后，人民币升值动能将减弱，明年或进入6.8-7.1的拉锯震荡区间 ★人民币升值受益板块明确，成本降毛利升 ★有色行情下半场：从追逐泡沫到拥抱价值 ★避险情绪升温，电解铝凭借低波动率与价格位置成为"压舱石" 第一财经资讯2025-12-31 22:14:42 【本期重点】 ★一致看多下的隐忧：全球权益资产估值已高，警惕"黑天鹅"波动 ★煤价区间锁定，高股息凸显：煤炭板块仍是优质的"压舱石"资产 ★穿越内卷：如何筛选化工板块中，兼具供给侧改革与需求弹性的品种？ 本期会谈邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 港股速报 | 2025年港股收官 恒指年涨幅27.77% "深港指数"领涨全球 每经记者|曾子建 每经编辑|袁东 12月31日，因元旦假期，今日港股只交易上午半天。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收于25630.54点，下跌224.06点，跌幅0.87%。 回顾全年港股走势，在2024年上涨17.67%的基础上，恒生指数2025年累计上涨27.77%，恒生科技指数同样迎来两年连涨，2025年累计涨幅23.45%。 横向对比全球重要指数，恒生指数年涨幅仅落后深成指（截至午间收盘，深成指年内涨幅30%），位居第二。 就港股个股表现来看，年内黄金及有色金属板块涨幅亮眼，珠峰黄金（HK01815）全年涨幅超1200%，灵宝黄金（HK03330）年内涨超570%；半导体板块 表现突出，华虹半导体（HK01347）涨超240%，中芯国际（HK00981）涨超120%；券商股方面，国泰君安国际年内涨超140%；生物医药板块亦表现活跃， 药捷安康年内涨幅超770%；因行业调整，地产、教育等板块表现较弱。 今日港股盘面上，受节日因素影响，市场整体表现清淡。科网股跌 ...

12月31日消息，港股2025年最后半个交易日，三大指数低开低走，截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.96%，报 25606.37点，恒生科技指数跌1.24%，国企指数跌0.95%。今日港股盘面上，科网股跌多涨少，百度涨超 1%，网易跌超3%，京东、美团、阿里巴巴、快手跌超1%；汽车股高开低走，零跑汽车跌超2%；半导 体板块回调，中芯国际跌超1%；航空股涨幅居前，南方航空涨超4%；影视股活跃，大麦娱乐涨超5%。 | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | . | 最新 | 涨幅% ↓ | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSCEI | 恒生国企指数 | | 8905.74 | -0.95 | 22.17 | | 2 | મંદા | 恒生指数 | 1 | 25606.37 | -0.96 | 27.65 | | 3 | HSTECH | 恒生科技指数 | | 5509.26 | -1.24 | 23.30 | 从年线看，恒指全年涨27.65%，恒生科技指数全年涨23.30%，国企指数涨22.17%。年内黄金及有色金 属板块涨幅亮眼，珠峰黄金全年 ...

凤凰网财经讯 12月31日，三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.09%，深成指涨0.17%，创业板指涨0.15%。先进 封装、存储器、消费电子、光伏题材走强，稳定币、商业航天、能源金属概念股走弱。北交所新股N蘅 东光上市涨逾1000%。 | | | | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 * * ● | 咸新 | 张幅% | | 涨跌 涨跌家数 | | 用 | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3968.73 | 0.09 | 3.62 | 1047/784 | 0.03 | 350万 | 350万 62.61 7. | | 深证成指 | 13627.26 | 0.17 | 23.19 | 1542/867 | -0.01 | 808万 | 808万 119.18亿 | | 北证50 | 1449.56 | -0.07 | -1.08 | 149/87 | -0.15 | 17.5万 | 7.70 Z 17.5万 | | 创业板指 | 3247.74 | 0.15 | 4.84 | 760/445 | 0.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin Industry - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, with a steady increase in imports in November and a significant increase in Indonesia's exports in November. The trading volume of the exchange in December also remained at a relatively high level. - In the demand aspect, tin solder enterprises in South China showed certain resilience, while those in East China were more obviously affected. - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, and the tin price has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended to be cautious in operation and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations is more of an emotional drive, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended that pre - existing long positions be closed at high prices [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum prices and the market trading became light. The cost is strongly supported, but the demand is weak. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [5]. Zinc Industry - The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, but the opening of the zinc ore import window may ease the short - term supply pressure. The increase in refined zinc production is limited, while the demand side is better, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. - In the future, the price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventories [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. The price is expected to enter a shock adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the support level [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a slight decline, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production reduction [13]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon futures further reduced positions and rebounded. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industrial chain by raising prices, but the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [14]. Nickel Industry - The Indonesian government's plan to cut nickel production has driven up market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market was driven by raw material nickel, and the market sentiment improved. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. It is expected to maintain a strong shock adjustment in the short term [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a large amplitude. The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The price is supported by fundamentals, but the new driving force is limited. The market is affected by market sentiment, and the disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock before the New Year's Day [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 5.82% to 323,500 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 12.50% to 350 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 26.92% to 95.00 dollars/ton [2]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 7.19% to - 13,988.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at 7.87 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 70.73%, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 18.06% [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, the output of refined tin decreased by 0.81%, the import volume of refined tin increased by 127.19%, and the export volume increased by 31.62%. - The average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.76%, and the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises increased by 0.96% [2]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, social inventory increased by 2.02%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68%, and LME inventory increased by 3.60% [2]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.38% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - The prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged [4]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 34.3 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 1.1 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread of AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of AL 2602 - 2603 remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of alumina decreased by 4.44%, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas output decreased by 3.50%. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83%, and the export volume increased by 116.23%. - The operating rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory of various types increased to varying degrees [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - The prices of various types of SMM ADC12 decreased by 0.45%. - The refined - scrap price differences of various types of aluminum increased to varying degrees [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 25.0 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. - The import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.19%, and the export volume decreased by 0.97%. - The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.06% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.60% to 23,300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 175.63 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 10.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of refined zinc decreased by 3.56%, the import volume decreased by 3.22%, and the export volume increased by 402.59%. - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased to varying degrees. - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 10.12%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 3.10% to 97,620 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 90.00 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 33.11% [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 1.05%, and the import volume decreased by 3.90%. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 27.55% [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of some types changed to varying degrees [13]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees, such as the spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 16.67% [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national output of industrial silicon decreased by 11.17%, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. - The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, and the output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 21.78% [13]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 2.33%, the social inventory increased by 0.36%, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.09% [13]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 37.45% [14]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 4.16%, and the spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees [14]. Fundamental Data - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 3.19%, and the monthly output decreased by 10.35%. - The monthly output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%, the import volume decreased by 27.05%, and the export volume increased by 108.68% [14]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.65% to 132,550 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.55% to 136,150 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 decreased by 14.82% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP increased by 0.19%, and the cost from integrated high - grade nickel matte decreased by 3.60% [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2604 - 2605 increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The output of refined nickel in China decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.85% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.77%. - The prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.27% [18]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, and 2604 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [18]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the output in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 9.68%, and the export volume increased by 13.18%. - The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.50% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. - The price of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.68% [20]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, and 2601 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume decreased by 7.64%, and the export volume increased by 208.75%. - The total inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed trends in metal prices, highlighting the impact of economic indicators and government policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals, stock indices, and copper [2][3][20]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the need for technological advancements in agriculture and efficient application of scientific achievements [1]. - The State Council announced the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law from January 1, 2026, with a focus on four main categories of national subsidies [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a digital transformation plan for the automotive industry, aiming to enhance key technology products and encourage the use of self-controlled technology [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Silver has shown signs of recovery, supported by a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.7% in November, which is below the anticipated 3.1% [2][20]. - The U.S. labor market data showed a mixed picture, with 64,000 new jobs added, exceeding the forecast of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][20]. - The overall downward trend in CPI provides room for potential interest rate cuts, which could support precious metal prices in the long term [2][20]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with significant trading activity in the oil and petrochemical sectors [3][12]. - The financing balance increased by 8.38 billion yuan to 25.348 trillion yuan, indicating a potential influx of capital into the market [3][12]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract foreign capital back into Chinese assets, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend in A-shares [3][12]. Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices rose by 1.15% in the night session, driven by tight supply conditions and fluctuating smelting profits [4][21]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable electricity investment and positive growth in automotive production, while the real estate sector remains weak [4][21]. - Market sentiment is influencing short-term copper prices, with a focus on changes in the dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [4][21]. Group 5: Other Commodities - The article also touches on various other commodities, including oil, methanol, rubber, and agricultural products, indicating a mixed outlook based on supply and demand dynamics [15][19][28][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of loose monetary policies both domestically and internationally, foreign capital and southbound funds are expected to continue their net inflow trend, leading to a substantial improvement in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies, with the market anticipated to experience both profit and valuation increases by 2026 [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment themes, the focus should be on technology innovation, as the goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will drive investment in this area. The Hang Seng Technology Index has considerable room for valuation recovery, and leading companies are expected to show high growth characteristics [1] - The cyclical industries are also highlighted, where the deepening supply-side reform policies are expected to optimize the supply-demand dynamics in sectors such as steel, building materials, electrical equipment, and paper, leading to steady improvements in capacity utilization and gross margins [1] - The consumption theme is emphasized under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, with expected growth in performance and valuations at historically low levels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, "trade-in" programs, and new consumption [1] - Overall, the investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should focus on the flow of funds ("water") and the quality of performance ("quality"), with a high sensitivity to global liquidity, domestic policy implementation, and corporate profit recovery [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属集体回调 中国人民银行副行长陆磊发文称，《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和 相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》从机制上明确了数字人民币将从数字现金时 代迈入数字存款货币（Digital Deposit Money）时代。特朗普暗示，他已经有 了一位心目中的美联储下一任主席人选，但并不急于宣布，可能会在 1 月宣布。 特朗普承认，乌克兰领土问题实际上"仍未谈妥"，顿巴斯地区的非军事化区划 设等"棘手"问题尚待解决。日本央行 12 月政策会议纪要显示，多位委员认为 该国实际利率仍处于极低水平，暗示未来将继续加息。 贵金属： 贵金属波动加剧，白银大幅调整。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于 预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引 发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分 化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。 疲软的就业数据支持美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形 成提振。从长期 ...