Core Viewpoint - The market's focus on "anti-involution" has significantly increased, but there is considerable divergence in understanding "involution"; most viewpoints interpret it through the lens of supply-side reform, which may lead to misunderstandings [1] Misunderstanding of "Involution" and "Anti-Involution" - "Anti-involution" is not equivalent to "anti-surplus"; the causes of demand differ: "surplus" arises from declining demand and passive supply, while "involution" involves proactive supply increases in strong demand areas [2][9] - Price behaviors differ: "surplus" leads to follow-up price reductions due to demand decline, while "involution" results in chaotic price competition despite strong demand [2][9] Supply Issues - Prior to supply-side reform, there was surplus in upstream and state-owned enterprises; the current "anti-involution" is more pronounced in downstream and private enterprises [3][9] - High-energy-consuming industries have completed capacity concentration reforms, and traditional backward capacity is not as significant as before [4][9] Policy Focus - Policies may target industries with excessive supply growth, such as coal and photovoltaic sectors, but the focus is more on downstream adjustments rather than drastic supply reductions [5][9] - Avoiding excessive contraction in upstream supply is crucial to prevent "super-inflation" in prices, which could hinder the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [5][9] Policy Mechanisms - "Anti-involution" should not rely solely on self-discipline talks; successful strategies may include encouraging industry mergers, raising industry standards, and matching supportive policies [6][9] - The experience from Japan, the US, and Germany shows that market-driven reforms and non-price competition can effectively address overcapacity issues [7][9] Structural Adjustments - "Anti-involution" requires addressing the structural imbalance in demand rather than stimulating demand in surplus areas; developing service sector demand can help rebalance the economy [7][9] - The service sector has significant potential to absorb manufacturing job losses and alleviate "involution" challenges [7][9] Equipment and Debt Management - Addressing equipment update issues and overdue payments is essential; the current trend shows new equipment purchases without corresponding old equipment retirements, which can exacerbate "involution" [7][9] - The issue of overdue payments is more pronounced now, especially among private enterprises, necessitating stronger governance measures [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the rationale provided by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran for advocating significant interest rate cuts, suggesting that if his views are accepted, it would imply that the Federal Reserve, investors, and independent economists are all incorrect [2]. Group 1: Miran's Arguments - Miran supports a reduction of interest rates from the current 4%-4.25% range to approximately 2.5%, citing the impact of Trump's policy changes, including reduced immigration, lower government borrowing, and deregulation, which he believes should lead to lower long-term rates [2][3]. - He estimates that the "neutral real long-term interest rate" has decreased by over 1 percentage point due to these policy changes, predicting a potential 10% increase in the price of 10-year TIPS if yields drop to his estimated levels [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's assumptions hold, significant adjustments in market pricing would be necessary, leading to a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for the stock market, despite concerns about high stock prices [3]. - The combination of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is expected to benefit the stock market, suggesting that it could rise even further if Miran's views are validated [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Context - The article highlights potential downsides to Miran's proposed policy changes, such as labor shortages and rising wages due to immigration restrictions, which could increase inflation [4][5]. - It also points out that the effectiveness of deregulation is unpredictable and that Miran's reliance on the Taylor Rule may not fully account for current economic conditions, as other metrics suggest a higher recommended interest rate range [5]. - Current economic indicators, including a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3 and strong market performance, challenge the necessity for further rate cuts, indicating that the economic landscape is more robust than Miran suggests [6][7].

机构：三季度北京甲级写字楼市场净吸纳量创年内新高 中新社北京9月24日电 (记者 庞无忌)多元化专业服务与投资管理公司高力国际24日在北京发布的一份报 告显示，三季度北京甲级写字楼市场净吸纳量创年内新高。 报告指出，三季度北京写字楼市场去化进一步加快，净吸纳量达12.5万平方米，已连续九个季度实现去 化，季度平均去化量达到8万平方米。随着需求侧明显放量，北京写字楼市场空置率回落，环比下降近1 个百分点。 高力国际北京公司董事总经理李娟认为，在科技创新驱动的新周期中，更多优质企业选择从低效资产向 优质资产转移。本轮"科技创新周期"和"写字楼市场再平衡周期"的双周期共振，将驱动北京写字楼市场 迈入一场以质量变革和效率提升为核心的供给侧改革。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：熊思怡 从租金来看，跨板块与跨资产类别竞争强度居高不下，区域市场分化特征进一步凸显。报告指出，三季 度北京写字楼市场整体租金仍处于下行通道，净有效租金环比下降3.5%至每月每平方米227.3元人民 币。 值得注意的是，科技创新正为中关村市场带来源源不断的新增办公需求。中关村写字楼市场已连续五个 季度去化量达到历史较高水平，三季度该子市场净吸纳量再 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the chemical industry, particularly the petrochemical sector, which is facing challenges such as overcapacity and declining profitability [1][6][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised the Price Law and implemented measures to address excessive investment and price competition below cost, aiming to restore fair competition [1][2][4]. 2. **Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry**: The industry is experiencing significant overcapacity, with production capacity increasing by over 50% from 2020 to 2024, yet overall output value has not increased, leading to declining profitability [6][15]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The chemical industry is currently undervalued, with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and low holding ratios, presenting a good investment opportunity. The prices of chemical products are elastic and can transmit inflation, making it a favorable time to invest [2][16]. 4. **Focus on Specific Sub-industries**: Attention should be given to sub-industries with high loss levels, old equipment ratios, and high energy consumption, such as spandex, titanium dioxide, organic silicon, nylon, coal chemical, and soda ash [17][18]. 5. **Regulatory Changes**: The revised Price Law emphasizes cost monitoring to combat disorderly price competition, including low-cost dumping, and aims to transition to a more market-oriented pricing mechanism [7][15]. 6. **Environmental Regulations**: New policies, such as the Fixed Asset Investment Energy Saving Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation Measures, aim to control new capacity and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [8][10][11]. 7. **Supply-side Reform**: The current policies reflect lessons learned from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and ensuring compliance with national standards [19][20]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The chemical industry is characterized by low valuations and significant potential for recovery, with the government promoting a unified national market to stabilize growth [2][20]. - **Future Trends**: The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing overcapacity issues [20]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in high-loss sub-industries that meet specific criteria, as these companies are likely to benefit from the current policy environment [18][20].

基本面为锚，关注预期驱动 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 投资咨询号：Z0013049 行情回顾 曹璐 化工资深分析师；从业资格号：F3013434；投资咨询号：Z0013049 u 7月份开始，玻璃盘面一度大幅拉涨。"反内卷"引发了市场对玻璃行业落后产能淘汰的猜测，商品市场多 头情绪高涨，玻璃期价表现强势。 u 7月下旬至8月底，随着"反内卷"交易情绪告一段落， "供给侧改革"预期落空，基本面压力下，玻璃盘 面大幅下挫，基本跌回本轮上涨起点。 u 9月以来，玻璃走势再度偏强，在此期间宏观和基本面均较为利多玻璃：一方面反内卷交易仍时有扰动；另 一方面，地产基本面持续走弱，政策存在继续加码预期。此外金九银十旺季背景下，玻璃终端需求存在边 际改善预期。但随着盘面升水现货幅度扩大，加上市场多头情绪降温，9月下半月以来，盘面再度有所回调。 基本面分析——供给端 玻璃期现货价格 全国各主要区域浮法玻璃市场价 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 ...

今日（9月24日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中涨逾1.5%，现涨 1.3%，拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨52.82%，大幅跑赢沪指 （23.42%）、沪深300（25.92%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，华钰矿业涨超7%，海亮股份、有研新材涨逾6%，华钰钴业、西藏矿业等个股跟涨。 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.23 。注：中证有色金属指数近 5 个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020 年， 35.84% ； 2021 年， 35.89% ； 2022 年， -19.22% ； 2023 年， -10.43% ； 2024 年， 2.96% 。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。 有色金属本轮走出了一轮强劲的多头行情，其背后是多重利好因素的共同推动： 1、美联储降息推高有色金属价格：①美联储降息相当于放水，货币贬值，投资者倾向持有更保值的实 物资产；②大多数有色金属，在国际市场上是以美元计价，美联储降息带动美元贬值，美元计价的金属 相对更便宜，进一步增加全球 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. have impacted overseas chemical companies. In the long term, China's chemical industry has a clear competitive advantage, with significant cost benefits and technological advancements, allowing Chinese companies to fill gaps in the international supply chain [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - Prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, indicating a high level of industry prosperity. The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quotas, and increased downstream demand has significantly optimized the supply-demand balance. Prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have increased by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively this year. Major refrigerant producers have seen substantial profit growth, with companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. reporting net profit increases of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [15][8] 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - For the week of September 15-21, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index dropped by 1.33%, underperforming the market by 0.89 percentage points. The Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index decreased by 1.99%, also underperforming the market [18][21] 3. Key Product Price Trends - The top price increases for the week included butyl acrylate (3.86%), bisphenol A (3.75%), and phenol (3.31%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in nitric acid (-3.11%), liquid ammonia (-2.71%), and caustic soda (-2.44%) [29][31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][75] Core Viewpoints - The real estate development investment in China from January to August reached 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating a significant decline in the sector [3] - The new construction area of residential buildings decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [3] - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 344.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.9% week-on-week but a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year [4][14] - The report highlights that the supply-side reform in the building materials sector is expected to reach a turning point, with a recovery in housing purchase willingness due to declining interest rates and supportive policies [6][20] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize, driven by policies aimed at boosting housing consumption and improving purchasing power [3][6] Summary by Sections High-frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of P.O 42.5 cement is 344.5 yuan/ton, with regional prices varying [4][14] - The glass (5.00mm) ex-factory price is 1165.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.0% [21][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3%, while the building materials index rose by 0.43% [5][59] - Sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced declines [5][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery characterized by "overall pressure and internal differentiation," with significant variations in same-store performance and a shift from low-base recovery logic to genuine supply-side adjustments since 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The restaurant industry's revenue showed signs of pressure and differentiation in H1 2025, with fluctuations in year-on-year growth rates for social retail dining and above-limit dining since 2025, including negative growth in July for above-limit dining [1]. - The national restaurant industry prosperity index was 104.1 in June 2025, slightly down by 0.1% from May, indicating slight volatility despite strong demand in specific scenarios like graduation banquets and summer night markets [1][2]. - The performance of same-store sales varied significantly, with resilient performance in cost-effective categories like tea drinks and fast food, while high-ticket hot pot categories faced notable pressure [1][2]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading brands are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, adapting store types to local markets, and prioritizing profit over revenue growth [2][3]. - Companies with supply chain advantages or refined operational capabilities, such as Yum China and Gu Ming, are showing stable profitability, with some brands like Gu Ming achieving a net profit increase of 121.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Expansion and Profitability - The profitability of individual stores is crucial for supporting expansion, with the logic of opening new stores being based on whether the combined profits of new and existing stores exceed previous profits [3]. - Successful examples include Xiao Cai Yuan, which achieved a net increase of 55 stores in H1 2025 with a profit margin of 23.8%, demonstrating a positive cycle of store expansion and profit growth [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry outlook remains positive for cost-effective dining segments, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies like Xiao Cai Yuan, which is expected to accelerate store openings and achieve positive same-store growth in the current market environment [4].

Group 1 - The company announced a strategic financing agreement with Wujing Capital to raise approximately $700 million, aimed at strengthening capital reserves, developing new growth areas in silane, and optimizing capital structure [1] - The funds will be used for three main purposes: 1) reserve funds for supply-side reform to promote structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity; 2) enhancing the second curve of silane gas to achieve overseas substitution with the world's leading capacity and output, primarily for semiconductor, photovoltaic, and lithium battery sectors; 3) optimizing the company's capital structure by supplementing working capital and repaying existing loans [1] - The company is expected to benefit from industry self-discipline and the gradual implementation of supply-side policies, leading to significant profit recovery potential [1] Group 2 - Silicon materials are identified as a core aspect of the photovoltaic industry's efforts to combat disorderly competition, with supply-side optimization expected in Q4 [2] - The National Standardization Administration has proposed stricter energy consumption standards for polysilicon and germanium products, which may lead to regulatory control over high-energy-consuming capacities [2] - The company maintains a profit forecast for 2025-2027 with net profits of -2.304 billion, 1.276 billion, and 2.140 billion yuan respectively, and a target price of 2.22 HKD based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026 [2]