10月22日，欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布对俄罗斯实施第19轮制裁，令人意外的是，制裁名单中竟然包括了四家中国石油企业。这一消息引起了外界的广泛关 注，因为就在前一天，中国商务部长王文涛还与欧盟贸易委员谢夫乔维奇进行了长达两小时的视频会谈，并且欧方还热情邀请王部长前往布鲁塞尔讨论合作 事宜，并表示愿意寻找"建设性解决方案"。然而，不到24小时，从握手和友好的邀请到直接制裁，欧盟的反转速度让很多人感到震惊，有网友甚至戏谑道， 这比翻书还快，连特朗普这样的反复无常人物都得甘拜下风。 10月21日，中欧经贸对话气氛一片和谐，王文涛和谢夫乔维奇的视频通话涉及了三大敏感议题。第一个是稀土出口管制问题，稀土是新能源汽车和风电设备 的核心原材料，今年中国扩大了稀土出口的管制范围，欧盟的企业对此感到焦虑不安。谢夫乔维奇在通话中多次强调，希望与中方共同寻找解决方案，甚至 提出尽快在布鲁塞尔召开升级版对话会，期待尽早达成具体的解决细节。 第二个议题是电动汽车的贸易摩擦，欧盟曾对中国的电动汽车进行反补贴调查，双方已经就此展开了多轮磋商。谢夫乔维奇表示，欧方认可中方提出的"务 实平衡"原则，希望通过价格承诺的方式解决争议，这与中方的立场不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with the index rising over 70% year-to-date, but there is increasing internal differentiation among sub-sectors, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, which are experiencing high-level fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, the non-ferrous metals (CITIC) index has gained over 70% this year, attracting market attention [1] - The performance of precious metals has been under pressure due to geopolitical changes and profit-taking, while industrial and rare metals show relative resilience [1] - The market trend can be divided into three phases: initial strength in precious metals due to risk aversion from tariffs, followed by valuation recovery in industrial and rare metals, and finally a divergence in driving logic among the sub-sectors [1] Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - Precious metals (gold, silver) are linked to global political and economic situations and tend to strengthen during periods of uncertainty [1] - Industrial metals (copper, lead, zinc, aluminum) are driven by cyclical factors and primarily influenced by unexpected changes in supply and demand [1] - Rare metals (such as rare earths) are critical for high-end manufacturing, facing short-term supply-demand mismatches but benefiting from technological advancements in the long term [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The analysis indicates that gold's recent fluctuations are due to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, but it still holds asset allocation value in the medium to long term [2] - Silver has faced a pullback after a previous surge, with its future performance remaining uncertain and closely tied to geopolitical and Federal Reserve developments [2] - Copper is currently in a "double weakness" situation regarding supply and demand, with production disruptions and global economic slowdown affecting its outlook [2] - Rare earths are expected to perform strongly, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade policies and export control expectations [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector may still present structural investment opportunities, but differentiation among varieties will continue [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals to identify investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

【华通白银网10月24日讯】•黄金攀升至4,145美元，因投资者在周五美国关键通胀数据公布前调整仓位。 •特朗普制裁俄罗斯石油巨头卢克石油公司（Lukoil）和俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft），重新激起了避险需求。 •白宫计划对中国实施新的软件出口限制，加剧科技紧张局势。 由于交易员在美国9月份通胀报告发布前获利了结，以及特朗普对中国的贸易言论略有缓和，金价在连续出现日跌点位后，周四收复了部 分失地。截至撰写本文时，黄金价格为4,145美元，涨幅超1.10%。 黄金在大幅获利了结后回升1%，受到新制裁和贸易局势缓和的支撑 市场情绪有所改善，但这并不影响黄金多头进场推动黄金现货突破4,100美元大关。随着特朗普因乌克兰战争对俄罗斯实施制裁，开始针 对卢克石油公司（Lukoil）和俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）这两家石油公司，地缘政治对黄金的影响起伏加剧。 尽管金价周二创下五年来最大跌幅，但今年以来仍上涨了57%。市场参与者正在关注周五发布的美国9月份消费者价格指数（CPI），经 济学家预计整体和核心CPI将同比增长3.1%。 每日市场动向：尽管美元走强，美国国债收益率高，但黄金仍出现反弹 •尽管美元指数上涨0 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term geopolitical trends support oil prices, with a short - term low - level bullish mindset for oil [1] - The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, gold rebounds slightly, and the US dollar index has increased downward pressure, which is bullish for gold. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and the tire operating rate increases, driving the market upward. A low - level bullish mindset is adopted for rubber [3] - PTA has many maintenance expectations, low polyester inventory, and poor polyester operating load. It is advisable to follow the upward trend of crude oil and take a low - level bullish operation [3] - The futures price of lithium carbonate continues the oscillating and strengthening trend. In October, although the supply increases steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will lead to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for steel products recovers this week, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and the high cost supports steel prices. Steel prices may oscillate in the short term [5] - The supply - demand structure of coking coal is tight in the short term, and the market sentiment is positive. Coking coal prices are expected to continue to rise slightly [5] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the stock market may react in the short term. The bond market operation is difficult, with a medium - term slightly bearish oscillating mindset [6] - Although silver follows gold's decline, due to the almost certain interest rate cut in October, the decline of silver is limited. It is long - term bullish, short - term oscillating, and there are opportunities to go long [6] - The upward trend of national hog prices slows down. After the oscillating adjustment, there may be a bullish expectation. Hog futures prices stop falling and rebound, maintaining a bottom - oscillating and rebounding pattern [7] - The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the inventory pressure increases. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. Palm oil will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term [7] - The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and domestic demand is strong. Bean No. 2 oscillates and stabilizes, and Bean No. 1 maintains a bullish pattern [8] - The domestic methanol operating rate is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - The float glass operation is stable, the inventory rises, and the downstream demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly and stably, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene eases slightly, the demand - side operating rate rises slightly, and the inventory decreases. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Group 2: Specific Product Data and Analysis Crude Oil - On October 23, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia, and a US B - 1B bomber approached the Venezuelan coast [1] Gold - Putin said that US sanctions on Russia would not have a major impact on the Russian economy, and the US - Russia meeting was postponed [1] Rubber - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, the production increased by 1.5% year - on - year to 8.99386 billion. The tire capacity utilization rate continued to rise [3] PTA - PTA social inventory is 314.13 million tons, a decrease of 5.03 million tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.51% [3] Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 458 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 450 yuan/ton [4] Steel and Coking Coal - As of October 23, the weekly output of rebar was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 59,100 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, a decrease of 189,300 tons from last week [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [5] Bonds - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in various strengths and reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035 [6] Silver - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 [6] Hog - On October 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous day [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20 in Malaysia, the production of crude palm oil increased by 10.77% compared with the same period last month [7] Soybean - The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 1 million tons year - on - year to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 87.4%, a decrease of 2.13%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.53% [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide is 1,271 yuan/ton. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7021 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.09% [11] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is 75.01%, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment [1] - Copper: Long-term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Stabilize and recover [1] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are temporarily halted from falling due to factors such as tense US-Russia relations and uncertain US policies. In the short term, there are key negotiation periods and geopolitical issues, while in the long term, the supporting logic remains unchanged, including the start of an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. - Silver prices are in a high-level adjustment. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly, and in the long term, global policy stimulus will drive up demand, resulting in a continuous supply-demand gap [1]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term. With the improvement of the market atmosphere and the increase in risk appetite, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions should wait for a pullback [1][7]. - Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, supply will increase while demand will decrease [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain bullish in the short term due to the stabilization of alumina prices and the depletion of inventories during the peak season [1][14]. - Nickel prices are stabilizing and recovering, supported by the peak season demand for nickel sulfate [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices showed signs of halting their decline due to tense US-Russia relations and the EU's new round of sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the US economic data was strong. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long-term upward logic remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver prices halt their decline. For domestic gold, pay attention to the support at 930, and for silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 11,200. Long-term positions can continue to be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened higher overnight and consolidated at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. After the copper price rose, downstream demand was weak, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper, be cautious about chasing high prices, and new long positions should wait for a pullback. In the long term, copper is a strategic resource in the US-China game and a substitute for precious metals, and its demand is expected to increase [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc opened lower overnight and then rose, recovering the gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season demand is weak, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas markets continues [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, it is still a short position in the sector. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,500 [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices also rose [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The peak season demand for stainless steel is not obvious, and the market is under pressure to destock [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened higher and closed higher, with increasing positions and trading volume [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The main funds may drive up the price when shifting positions [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with a focus on the range of 78,500 - 82,000 [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost - supported, with a unilateral trend of being oscillatory and slightly strong. PXN is expected to fall, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between 240 - 250 US dollars [10]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. The new PTA device of Xin Fengming is planned to start this week [10]. - **MEG**: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [11]. - **Rubber**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. - **Asphalt**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. - **LLDPE**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. - **PP**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [38]. - **Pulp**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [41][44]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. - **Methanol**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. - **Urea**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. - **Styrene**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. - **LPG**: Significantly supported by cost, but with macro - risks [62]. - **Propylene**: Supported by cost, with a short - term rebound from a low level [63]. - **PVC**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Relatively resistant to decline [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: On October 23, the price of PX in Asia increased, following the rise of crude oil. The load of PTA devices changed, and the overall start - up load of MEG in the Chinese mainland decreased. The polyester load remained stable, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased [5][8][9]. - **Trend and Suggestion**: PX is oscillatory and slightly strong, and factories are advised to hedge PXN spreads. PTA demand is expected to improve, and MEG short positions should be reduced [10][11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The prices of glue and cup - glue in Thailand increased, and the raw material prices in Yunnan increased slightly. The supply in Hainan decreased due to typhoons, and the raw material supply in Vietnam was limited [13][14][15]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene increased [16][17]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The asphalt futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate increased slightly. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and the factory and social inventories decreased [19][29]. - **Trend**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The LLDPE futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PE market price decreased overall, with a slight increase in some varieties over the weekend [30]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. PP - **Market Data**: The PP futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PP market price rebounded after a decline, with a downward - moving price center [33][34]. - **Trend**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The price of caustic soda futures and the spot price in Shandong remained stable. The supply pressure of caustic soda is not large, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [37][38]. - **Trend**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [38]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The pulp futures trading volume decreased, and the positions decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp varieties changed, and the port inventory decreased but remained at a high level. The downstream demand was weak [42][43][44]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [41]. Glass - **Market Data**: The glass futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with a slight improvement in overall sales [46]. - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, with different trends in different regions [49][51]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. Urea - **Market Data**: The urea futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the spot trading improved [53][54][55]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. Styrene - **Market Data**: The styrene futures prices changed, and the profit margins of different production methods decreased. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene turned into de - stocking expectations [56][57]. - **Trend**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The soda ash futures price increased, and the positions increased. The domestic soda ash market was stable, with an increase in supply and weak demand [59]. - **Trend**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The LPG and propylene futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The CP prices of propane and butane increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [63][67][68]. - **Trend**: LPG is supported by cost but has macro - risks; propylene is supported by cost with a short - term rebound [62][63]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC futures price and the spot price remained stable. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is affected by trade wars, with weak demand and high inventory [70]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The fuel oil futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume and positions changed. The spot prices of fuel oil in different regions increased [73]. - **Trend**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices changed, and the trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [75]. - **Trend**: Relatively resistant to decline [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Despite large pressure on spot supply and a sharp drop in PG basis turning negative, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term under the influence of tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances because of concerns about future supply. There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Thursday, the price of civil LPG rebounded. In East China, it was 4267 (+8), in Shandong 4340 (+90), and in South China 4400 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4440 (+50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 89 (-21), and the November - December spread was 122 (-22). FEI and CP increased to 494.5 (+16.5) and 456 (+9) dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI monthly spread was - 10 dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was - 4 dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production in the coming week [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Commodity Market**: The coal market has shown signs of a mid-term bottom, with expectations for a gradual upward trend, providing support for energy prices. The oil and gas markets continue to exhibit a mid-term downward trend, but the decline may be limited due to coal's stabilizing effect [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Market Dynamics**: The oil market has entered a loose phase, with a shift to a backwardation structure, indicating increased bearish risks. OPEC+ has increased production significantly, and geopolitical tensions have eased, but sanctions have limited actual supply impacts [3][4][5]. - **Demand Weakness**: Oil demand is relatively weak, with a notable decline in China's gasoline and diesel demand, which has contracted by approximately 3% and 5% year-on-year, respectively. This has led to increased pressure on refined oil inventories in Q4 [7][8]. - **Coal Market Stability**: The supply of thermal coal remains stable, with a reduction in imports and a slowdown in the growth of renewable energy substitutes. Non-electric demand for coal is strong, and there is an upward price risk in Q4, with prices expected to peak around 800 RMB/ton [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks have been fully priced into the oil market, presenting opportunities for short positions. The mid-term supply-demand balance remains unclear, with non-OPEC production growth expected to decline [10]. - **U.S. Shale Oil Production**: U.S. shale oil production costs are around $50/barrel, with slight increases expected in production this year. A significant reduction in production may not occur until 2026, indicating ongoing competition between OPEC+ and U.S. producers [6]. - **Refined Oil Inventory Pressure**: There is an increasing pressure on refined oil inventories, with a notable accumulation observed in Q4, driven by seasonal factors and reduced operational rates at refineries [8]. Market Trends and Predictions - **Price Forecasts**: Brent crude oil is projected to find support around $57, while WTI is expected to stabilize near $52. The market is currently at a critical juncture, with potential for further declines limited by geopolitical risk premiums [9][10]. - **Fuel Oil Market**: The fuel oil market is characterized by a strong high-sulfur segment, with geopolitical factors influencing prices. However, the low-sulfur segment faces oversupply issues [11][12]. - **Asphalt Market**: The asphalt market is expected to weaken due to reduced demand from the construction sector, with supply constraints anticipated in Q4 [13]. Conclusion - The commodity markets are experiencing significant shifts, particularly in coal and oil, with geopolitical factors and demand dynamics playing crucial roles. Investors should remain vigilant regarding inventory pressures and potential price movements, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical developments and market adjustments.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" - Asphalt: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "なな☆" - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" Report's Core View - The oil market is in a state of short - term rebound. In the absence of additional negatives, the downward momentum of oil prices this week has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical fluctuations on the resistance level of Brent at $65 per barrel [2] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term, but supply is expected to be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] - The asphalt market maintains a tight balance, and the strengthening of the cost side helps to consolidate the upward trend [4] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil gives it a boost [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded violently, and the SC11 contract rose 4.4%. Considering the approaching of the low point in April and the decline of net long positions in futures and options, the downward momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week. EIA inventories declined last week, and geopolitical risks have increased. The market is in a state of oversold rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow the strengthening of the crude oil cost side due to multiple macro - factors. The supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but supply may be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently, but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - Crude oil leads the rise of oil product futures, and BU continues the upward trend. The weekly start - up rate of asphalt nationwide declined, the production plan of refineries in November decreased significantly. The weekly shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises declined. Social inventory continued to be destocked, and factory inventory was destocked slowly. The market maintains a tight balance [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, the rebound of crude oil led to the rise of oil product futures, and the LPG main contract rose about 2.6%. This week, the supply increased slightly. Chemical demand has increased, and the demand expectation of the combustion end is strong, but the actual demand is currently flat. Weekly refinery and port inventories declined [4]