1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached 52.4, higher than the expected 51.3 and the previous value of 51.6; the March S&P Global Services PMI was 51.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 51.7, indicating a recovery in the US manufacturing industry and a decline in the service industry. The conflicting signals of Middle - East conflict easing and escalation continue to influence the capital market, and the market is still driven by crude oil [2]. - In the domestic market, on Tuesday, the broader market rose 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%, showing a trend of bottom - hunting and recovery. There was obvious capital inflow at 10 am and 2 pm. Sectors such as environmental protection, textile and apparel, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and social services led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined. A total of 5,135 stocks rose and 328 stocks fell. The "Token" economy may become the core pricing logic, and domestic computing power and data centers should be focused on. The domestic A - share market shows characteristics of a stock game under external uncertainties, and although there was capital inflow, the subsequent uncertainty is still high [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest since his return to the White House [5]. - The US Department of Justice admitted that the investigation of Powell lacked evidence [6]. - The Trump administration is expected to relax summer gasoline regulations as early as Wednesday to suppress energy prices [6]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil originally scheduled for April 15 [7]. - Regarding the Iranian situation, there are various news including the US intention to cease fire for a month to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran, the possible high - level talks between the US and Iran as early as Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince urging Trump to continue the war against Iran, the appointment of Bagher Zolghadr as the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Trump's statement about ongoing negotiations and Iran's agreement on "never having nuclear weapons" and offering a gift related to oil and gas, the 15 - point peace plan put forward by the US, Iran being reported to demand a "toll" of $200,000 each time, Trump forwarding a post from the Prime Minister of Pakistan willing to act as a mediator, the US continuing to deploy the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, and Iran preferring Vance to lead the negotiations and accusing Kushner and Witkoff of "breach of trust" [8][9][10]. - Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir - Abdollahian [15]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision, inspection, and anti - unfair competition work in 2026 [16]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [18][19]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the performance of various spot market indexes, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and historical quantiles of indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the influence of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, and presents the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [43][44][46]. - It also includes various charts related to the spot market, such as the relationship between market style and index fluctuations, market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [53]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures continue to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the impact on Russian crude oil exports have led to a tight supply situation. Although the short - term sanctions relief has slightly eased the tightness, the key lies in whether the strait can be unsealed. Investors should view oil prices with an oscillatory mindset [1]. - Chemical product prices have been oscillating recently. The cost of energy is the anchor for chemicals. In the context of reduced supply in oil - chemical industries, processing fees have been compressed. There is an expectation of valuation repair in the future. If the geopolitical situation eases, the decline in upstream energy prices may be greater than that of chemicals; if it persists, chemicals may experience a supplementary increase [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector continues to be in an oscillatory pattern, awaiting the clarity of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a weakening of oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The current crude oil market faces a large supply gap, and the potential release of floating storage in Iran and Russia is relatively limited. The pressure on Persian Gulf countries to cut production remains. Future expectation deviations mainly come from the progress of the US - Iran conflict, the passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Supply shortages persist, and the fluctuation of geopolitical expectations intensifies, so oil prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The sharp decline in crude oil has driven down the asphalt futures price. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and there is an expectation of a significant decline in refinery operations. The reduction in asphalt production by various groups may drive up the asphalt - fuel oil spread. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, while the demand side has a large inventory accumulation pressure. Currently, the asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core driver of oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil mean that the tense situation in Iran affects not only the export of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - East fuel oil but also the supply of Middle - East natural gas. However, the Singapore fuel oil cracking spread has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power - generation demand may be suppressed by high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from a high level following crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main - product attributes, and its valuation has been significantly repaired compared to crude oil and asphalt during the oil - price increase. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The low - sulfur fuel oil - asphalt spread has returned to a high level, and the valuation is in a moderately high state. The high profit is expected to drive an increase in low - sulfur fuel oil production. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current valuation is relatively low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost pressure on downstream polyester factories remains significant. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the US - Iran war and the reopening of the strait has led to a significant correction in international oil prices, and downstream chemicals are expected to be more affected by cost. Fundamentally, the reduction in the operation of domestic and foreign PX plants affects the future supply expectation of PX. Although the polyester sales volume has increased after the sharp decline in oil prices, the current PX/PTA prices are still at a high level, and the cost pressure forces the continuous increase in the expectation of polyester production reduction. The negative feedback on the demand side suppresses the PX price and profit. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. In the short - term, the PX price is guided by cost, with strong support at the bottom. The logic of buying at low prices in the medium - term remains. The positive spread between PX05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high, and the PXN is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The decline in cost has led to an increase in polyester sales volume. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price has fallen from a high level, and the PX price has followed suit. Although the decline in cost has driven an increase in downstream polyester sales volume, the current high cost still exerts great pressure on polyester factories. The short - term spot inventory is still relatively loose, and the basis is weakly sorted. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is expected that PTA will maintain a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term. The positive spread between TA05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high. The short - term volatility increases, and it is not recommended to try to catch the top in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuation, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the energy side, the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a tight supply of crude - oil spot and pushed up oil prices. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, which may affect the operation of domestic and foreign cracking plants. On the supply side, some refineries have reduced their operations. On the demand side, the downstream profit is acceptable, and there is no negative - feedback pressure. The value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitics brings positive factors to styrene supply and demand, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is still dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the supply side, some plants are under maintenance or have postponed maintenance, and some long - stopped plants are restarting. On the demand side, the overall downstream profit has declined, and the support for the price has weakened. The ethylene price is strong, squeezing the styrene profit, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance in the future. There is an expectation of new exports of styrene. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The high - level correction of international oil prices has significantly weakened the support for chemicals. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will drop to a low level in early April. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will be rapidly reduced. The market will continue to oscillate widely when the import supply of ethylene glycol cannot be effectively realized. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and to maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude in the short - term. Pay attention to reducing the EG05 - 09 spread when it is high [17]. 3.1.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The polyester staple - fiber market is highly polarized. Factories are holding up prices, while downstream buyers are waiting and watching. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment strongly games around the geopolitical situation. The prices of polyester raw materials fluctuate in line with the cost. Fundamentally, the supply of polyester staple fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and most buyers are waiting and watching. The cost of raw materials held by yarn mills is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the digestion and acceptance ability of the subsequent process. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price of polyester staple fiber follows the upstream, and there is certain support for the processing fee at the bottom. The short - term price volatility is large, and cautious operation is recommended [18]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The cost volatility intensifies, and polyester bottle chips passively follow. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has corrected from a high level, and polyester bottle chips have followed the upstream raw materials to rise and then fall. The overall absolute price change is limited. It is expected that the short - term price trend will still mainly follow the upstream cost. The current supply - demand situation of polyester bottle chips is relatively tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced. The position of going long PR and short TA should be temporarily exited [20]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated weakly. The inland market continued to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but the overall procurement intensity of downstream in northern Shandong was average. The inventory of methanol production enterprises and ports has decreased. The overseas situation regarding the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The situation in Iran is full of uncertainties, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, which is difficult to disappear in the short - term. The price has room to rise but is restricted by the downstream's resistance to high prices and weak demand. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - policies, and supply - side disturbances; Downward risk: Downstream negative feedback [23]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Urea oscillates and consolidates under the game between long and short positions. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, urea oscillated weakly. The supply side maintains a high - level daily production, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has a weakening agricultural demand and insufficient industrial demand. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the spot price is suppressed by the policy - guided price. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The current fundamentals of urea are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, and the agricultural demand support is slightly loosened while the industrial demand is moderately recovering. The sustainability of the futures - price increase driven by market sentiment needs to be considered. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - factors, and unexpected demand; Downward risk: A sharp decline in coal prices, policy - control risks, and unexpected demand [25]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical cooling disturbs the market, and LLDPE should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the LLDPE futures price fell back, and the market game was intense. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, the import of LLDPE may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short - term, and the refinery operation rate has declined, which still supports the near - term contracts. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market game is intense under geopolitical disturbances, and the downstream trading is average. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [29]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical relaxation disturbs the market, and PP prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PP futures price fell. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The direct impact on the PP import is limited. The oil - based and PDH profits of PP refineries are still under pressure, which supports the price, while the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired. The overall operation rate is at a low level, and the spot trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The spot trading is average, and the market has a fierce long - short game under the disturbance of geopolitical news. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [30]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations disturb the market, and PL prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PL futures price fell. The reduction in supply has a significant boosting effect, and enterprises' quotations remain firm. Downstream factories purchase as needed, and the actual - order trading is relatively scattered. However, some auctions have a small premium, pushing up the trading center. The short - term powder - material profit is compressed, and the acceptance of downstream factories is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The operation rate has declined, but the downstream powder - material profit is still under pressure. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [31]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The impact is mainly from sentiment, and PVC should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, and the PVC inventory has been reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream operation rate has improved, the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high, the overseas price has soared, and the export signing is average this week. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and enterprises are in a loss state. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and less - than - expected PVC de - stocking; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and an increase in PVC exports [33]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical sentiment has declined, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, the caustic - soda export has improved, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, and production reduction has been realized. The demand for caustic soda has been marginally boosted. The inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong has been reduced. The enthusiasm for chasing price increases of 32% caustic soda is average. The export orders continue, and the price of 50% caustic soda has been raised. The overall supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and weak spot market; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and supply reduction [

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It indicates that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation, high - level oscillation, or interval operation, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - For example, short - term price fluctuations of some commodities are affected by the decline of international night - market energy prices, but the domestic fundamentals provide support for the downside space [10][33][36]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the supply and demand of commodities is a key factor, such as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the shipping of raw materials and the production and export of products [13][71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the rubber main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and some price differences changed [4]. - **Industry News**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires increased year - on - year, but the export price decreased. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with a shift towards emerging markets. It is expected that the export volume of all - steel tires in March will decline [5][6][7]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][8] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [8]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate widely in the short term [8][10]. LLDPE and PP - **Market Trend**: LLDPE's start - up continues to decline, and cost transmission is not smooth; PP's C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the spot price follows the increase slowly [2][12] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to the strengthening of raw materials, and the cost of LLDPE increases. The demand for LLDPE's post - holiday mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, the cost is strongly supported, and the demand has improved, but the PDH profit is at a low level [13]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali in Shandong, and the basis are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The caustic soda futures premium is large, and the 04 - contract is about to be delivered, which will suppress the market. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East will affect the supply and demand of caustic soda. The market may oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillatory operation [2][21] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the pulp main contract increased during the day and decreased at night, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [23]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures price increased slightly, but the market trading was light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The price of household paper is expected to be stable [24][25]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [26] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the glass futures decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [27]. - **Market News**: The price of the domestic float glass market shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market trading is average [27]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][29] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [30]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate widely in the short term [32][33]. Urea - **Market Trend**: Interval operation [2][35] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [36]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. It is expected that the urea price will operate within an interval in the short term [36][38]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][39] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and profits changed [39]. - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene are in high - level oscillation. The conflict has affected the supply and demand of pure benzene and styrene, and the port inventory may decrease [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market changes little [2][45] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the soda ash futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [47]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise equipment is operating stably, the downstream demand is average, and the price is expected to be stable [47]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trend**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene's supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [2][49] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [49]. - **Market News**: The prices of CP paper goods increased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][55]. PVC - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][57] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the spot price in East China, the basis, and the 5 - 9 month spread are provided [57]. - **Market Analysis**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the supply of PVC, and the domestic ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. The short - term basis converges, and the market is supported in the long - term [57]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Fuel oil continues to be weak, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase; low - sulfur fuel oil drops significantly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [2][59] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [59]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: The oscillation center may move down, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [2][61] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of container shipping index futures contracts changed, and the freight rates and shipping schedules of different carriers are provided [61][67]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by geopolitical emotions. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and the change of freight rates are analyzed, and the short - term and long - term trends of the market are predicted [71][72][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: High - level fluctuations due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][78] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts decreased, and the basis, trading volume, open interest, and other data changed [78]. - **Market News**: The short - fiber futures price dropped, the spot price was stable or slightly decreased, and the sales rate was 52%. The bottle - chip factory price was mostly decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [78][79]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][81] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and inventory data changed [81]. - **Market News**: The pure benzene port inventory decreased, and the market trading was weak [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions on copper at high prices moderately; strengthening observation on aluminum and nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; selling on rallies for soda ash; buying on dips for rubber without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a sideways pattern [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating the September contract sideways; expecting eggs to move in a range - bound pattern; corn to have short - term range - bound movement; being cautious about chasing long positions on the May soybean meal contract; suggesting rolling long positions on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, and the prices of various commodities show different trends under the influence of supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations [5][14] - Different commodities have different investment strategies based on their own fundamentals, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and strengthening observation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Trump's signal of easing tensions has repaired market liquidity and risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the capital situation and institutional allocation behavior are beneficial to the bond market, fundamental factors are subtly affecting the bond interest rate center. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a sideways pattern [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the total inventory has slightly increased. Coke production has rebounded from a low level. The inventory transfer is smooth, and short - term prices are bullish, suggesting short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is below the electric - arc furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [9] - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, the inventory reduction has slowed down, the downstream demand is average, and the price of raw material soda ash is weak. The market is expected to be bearish with sideways movement, with a possibility of a small rebound. Selling call options is recommended [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Macro factors have a negative impact on copper prices, but domestic consumption is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. However, overseas inventory is increasing. Copper prices are under pressure, but there is also support. Investors are advised to hold short positions at high prices moderately and pay attention to relevant factors [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is affected by high - price fluctuations, and the inventory is waiting for a turning point. The Middle East situation is generally bullish for aluminum, but it may fall in the short term. Strengthening observation is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is tight, the production of refined nickel is increasing, the demand is average, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to wait and see [16][17] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin has decreased, the import of tin concentrate has increased, the consumption is recovering, and the supply is tight. Tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, suggesting range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Fed's interest - rate decisions, the Middle East situation, and economic data affect prices. They are expected to move in a sideways pattern, and investors are advised to wait and see [20][21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to move in a range - bound pattern [22][23] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to operate within the rising channel [24] - **Caustic Soda**: The downstream demand provides support, and the supply may be affected by maintenance. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [26] - **Styrene**: The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [27] - **Polyolefins**: The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [28] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported by high overseas raw material prices, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizer production, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [30][31] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both at a certain level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Selling on rallies is recommended [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production has increased, the consumption has decreased, and the inventory has increased. However, the domestic market is active, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [36] - **Apples**: The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being actively traded. The price is expected to move in a sideways pattern [37][38] - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, the number of repurchasing merchants is small, and the price is expected to move in a sideways pattern [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Hogs**: The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is in the process of bottom - building. The 05 and 07 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and the 09 contract is treated sideways [41][42] - **Eggs**: The demand is supported by festival stocking, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The price is expected to move in a range - bound pattern, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors [43] - **Corn**: The supply in the northeast is tight, and the supply in the north - central is loose. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to have short - term range - bound movement [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the US - Iran relationship, the price of US soybeans is under pressure. The 05 contract is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions [46][47] - **Oils**: The price of palm oil is affected by supply and demand in Malaysia and Indonesia; the price of soybean oil is affected by Sino - US negotiations and US biodiesel policies; the price of rapeseed oil is affected by import costs and supply. Oils are expected to be at a high - level sideways movement, and previous long positions are recommended to be gradually reduced [48][52]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 伊朗局势方面，特朗普推迟袭击伊朗电厂并释放谈判信号，外盘原油短期走弱由上涨转入震荡。 供需端，农膜方面，春耕启动，地膜需求良好，但高价原料导致企业备货需求观望为主，包装膜 受涨价影响以刚需为主，管材方面开工率、订单均偏低。当前LL交割品现货价8950（+100），基 本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差32，升贴水比例0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.3万吨（-0.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线 ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, but it's difficult to see a sharp increase like before in the short term. The market fluctuates greatly, making it difficult to participate. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the EC2604 contract of container shipping to Europe declined, closing at 1898.9, a 5.4% drop. The decline of far - month contracts was greater than that of near - month contracts [1] Important Information - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1] - US President Trump said the US is communicating with the "right people", and Iran "wants to reach an agreement". He also claimed that Iran "has no leadership" and the US has "achieved great success" on the Iran issue [1] - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, emphasized that Iran will stop the war only after getting all compensation, having all economic sanctions lifted, and obtaining international legal guarantees of US non - interference in Iran's affairs [1] Market Logic - On March 23, the SCFIS closed at 1693.26 points, an 8.8% increase from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures [1] - On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was 1636 US dollars/TEU, a 1.1% increase [1] - Maersk's week 14 offer for large containers is 2600 US dollars and 2700 US dollars for high - cube containers, a 400 - dollar increase. CMA CGM announced an increase of large containers to 3500 US dollars, slightly higher than the written increase of 3100 US dollars in late March. Yang Ming announced a list price of 2700 US dollars for large containers in April. The preliminary offer of the PA alliance may be at the level of 2700 US dollars for large containers. Some 0A voyages will use the end - of - March quotes at the beginning of April, and some voyages have special offers. The regular FAK is expected to be between 2800 - 3100 US dollars for large containers. Follow - up observation will focus on Maersk's week 15 opening and the PA alliance's price adjustment [1] - As of March 23, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships increased to 7,521, with a total global operating capacity of 33,924.968 TEU and a total operating ship tonnage of 402,768,003 tons. As of the week of March 23, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 169,459 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 538,820 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 524,271 TEU [1] Trading Strategy - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, but it's difficult to see a sharp increase like before in the short term. The market fluctuates greatly, making it difficult to participate. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1]

1. Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the soda ash futures market may experience increased volatility, but in the medium - to - long - term, it faces downward price pressure due to a weak supply - demand situation. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, it is unstable [8]. - The glass market is in a dilemma. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a rebound in trading, but the upside is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, an improvement in the supply - demand structure and an upward price trend depend on the sustained change in commercial housing sales data [9][10]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash Market - On March 24, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 rose first and then fell, closing at 1240 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.24%, with a daily reduction of 11,088 lots [8]. - The soda ash market is under pressure, with significant supply - side pressure due to new capacity and high operating rates, weak demand in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, and high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors support the cost side but are unstable [8]. Glass Market - The glass price is in a dilemma. High inventory and potential production capacity limit the upside, while cold - repair expectations and geopolitical - influenced upstream prices support the downside. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has little impact on the supply side, and inventory is still accumulating [9]. - In the short - term, coal and natural gas price hikes due to geopolitics have driven the glass price to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of raw material price increases. The glass price's medium - to - long - term upward trend depends on commercial housing sales data [10]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, with a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 66.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.20%, at 739.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 350.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.09%, at 4590.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 520.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93%, at 5301.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (96.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3139 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 43 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: It has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, and Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton; others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, reported at 1884 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: With a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose sharply, while stock - market and economy - sensitive commodities fell. The overall market changed rapidly. The reasons for the rise were macro - bullish expectations and seasonal expectations, while the reasons for the fall were weak demand. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 tons to 69.21 tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+5) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 17500 (+2000) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 17900 (+1700) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16300 (+1200) yuan. The Asian butadiene operating rate decreased, and supply decreased, with butadiene expected to be strong [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 398 yuan, reported at 5853 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5860 (-160) yuan/ton, the basis was 7 (+238) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 87 (-51) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2735 (+85) yuan/ton, semi - coke medium - sized material price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (+25) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 726 (+18) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 8501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closing price was 10242 yuan/ton, a decrease of 828 yuan/ton; the basis was 858 yuan/ton, an increase of 1628 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 202.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286.4 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS operating rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 580 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 56.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 tons; the trader inventory was 5.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 9114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 679 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 654 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 59.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 tons; the trader inventory was 19.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 tons; the port inventory was 7.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 74 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 334 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 682 yuan, reported at 9708 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 40 (-74) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped production, and the Kuwaiti overseas device stopped production. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 31.1 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 113 US dollars (+32), South Korea's PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 485 US dollars (+110) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 440 yuan, reported at 6694 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 (-78) yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 326 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 455 yuan, reported at 5119 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 (-68) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, among which the syngas - made was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - made load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. One line of Zhongkun was under maintenance; in the oil - chemical sector, Fulei and Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced their loads, while Zhejiang Petrochemical and Satellite increased their loads. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 23 was 1.12 tons. The port inventory was 103.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - made profit was - 3074 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2434 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1310 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam - coal price rebounded to 640 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32].