Core Viewpoint - The Fidelity Enjoy Dividend Preferred Mixed A Fund (020493) reported a profit of 4.8742 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0651 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 7.25%, and the fund size reached 49.2887 million yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][14]. Fund Performance - As of July 21, the unit net value was 1.133 yuan. The fund's three-month, six-month, and one-year net value growth rates were 19.03%, 17.96%, and 18.19%, respectively, ranking 87/607, 119/607, and 344/602 among comparable funds [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.6855 as of June 27 [7]. - The maximum drawdown since inception was 11.11%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 10.13% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund management remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the equity market and plans to closely monitor individual stock fundamentals and earnings as listed companies begin to disclose their semi-annual reports. The management also anticipates short-term market volatility due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The fund's average stock position since inception was 77.96%, compared to the industry average of 85.36%. The fund reached a maximum stock position of 92.19% by the end of 2024 and a minimum of 52.12% by mid-2024 [13]. Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included China Construction Bank, Yutong Bus, Jiangsu Bank, Placo New Materials, Satellite Chemical, Minsheng Bank, Sinopec Crown, China Merchants Bank, China Shenhua, and Milkyway [17].

欧盟最后一退，特朗普加码15%关税！德高官怒吼：要战便战 当欧盟贸易专员谢夫乔维奇结束六赴华盛顿的谈判，带回美国接受10%基准关税的乐观预期时，布鲁塞 尔的官员们以为终于躲过了贸易战的子弹。然而仅仅一周后，白宫传来的新条件如一盆冷水：特朗普要 求欧盟接受15%甚至更高的基准关税，否则8月1日起全面启动30%关税。 "所有选项都摆在桌面上。"一位德国官员面对《华尔街日报》的镜头语气冰冷，"如果他们想要战争， 他们会得偿所愿。" 步步紧逼：10%的妥协如何喂大了特朗普的胃口 四个月来，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的"谈判策略"已成固定剧本：先强硬表态，再火速让步。7月，她 刚宣称"必将采取一切必要反制"，却在24小时内突然推迟了价值210亿欧元的对美报复性关税，姿态柔 软得令人咋舌。 欧盟的妥协清单曾显得诚意十足： - 承诺采购数百亿美元美国能源与半导体 - 在汽车关税上主动提出"归零方案"（只要美国降至20%，欧盟就取消美国汽车10%关税） - 德国车企甚至设计出复杂的"出口抵进口"机制换取豁免 汽车产业是德国的生死线：2023年欧盟对美汽车出口额高达580亿美元，支撑着1400万个就业岗位。大 众、宝马等巨头已发出 ...

这种沉默并非源于西方媒体的转变或莫迪政府的妥协，而是深刻的双重甚至三重尴尬的体现。 西方沉默背后的双重尴尬：技术实力与能源困局 回顾过往，西方媒体对中国的三峡工程和青藏铁路，曾冠以"生态炸弹"、"人权污点"等诸多负面标签，质疑中国的技术实力，渲染其可能造成的生态破坏。 然而，面对雅鲁藏布江水电工程，美联社、路透社等主流媒体却仅以轻描淡写的口吻报道其规模，对潜在的政治博弈和环境影响只字不提。 这种转变，并非因为西方媒体改变了立场，而是中国水电技术实力的飞速发展，以及西方自身深陷能源危机的窘境所造成的。白鹤滩水电站攻克百万千瓦机 组技术，港珠澳大桥的建成创造了跨海奇迹，而雅鲁藏布江项目的"截弯取直，隧洞引水"方案，更是巧妙地规避了对生态环境的潜在破坏，连瑞士专家都不 得不承认中国在高海拔复杂地质领域的国际领先地位。 与此同时，欧洲正为天然气短缺而焦头烂额，美国页岩油开采的环保问题也持续受到诟病。在全球竞相实现碳中和目标的大背景下，中国水电装机量已占全 球近三成，这使得西方国家难以再以环保为由对中国进行指责。美国在科罗拉多河修建30座大坝，导致墨西哥河床干裂，却从未为此道歉，如今却反过来指 责中国"破坏跨境河流"， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is at a strategic crossroads, with its deepening layout in the U.S. potentially altering its governance logic, balancing security and commercial interests as a future challenge [3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Transformation - TSMC is entering an unprecedented transformation period, marked by its announcement of large-scale manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [4]. - The company's key deployments in wafer manufacturing, packaging testing, and R&D are driving it towards a deeper "Americanization" [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The influence of geopolitical factors on high-end manufacturing is becoming increasingly significant, with TSMC's U.S. layout appearing as a policy-driven collaboration plan [4]. - Amid rising global tech competition and supply chain security becoming a priority for governments, TSMC's expansion in the U.S. may play a crucial role in maintaining the U.S.'s leading position in the global semiconductor industry and reviving its manufacturing sector [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of London gold is $3349.42 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of $10.43, which is a 0.31% rise [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, increased economic uncertainty, and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [1] - Conversely, the volatility of the US dollar index and changes in market risk appetite are also favorable for gold prices [1] Group 2: Indonesia-US Trade Agreement - Indonesia is in the process of negotiating the details of a new trade agreement with the United States, following a reduction in the tariff rate from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other products such as cocoa, rubber, and coffee [2] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of reaching a "good agreement" with Indonesia [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing opening, with gold prices operating above the middle band, indicating a rebound from oversold conditions [3] - The MACD indicator is showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is rebounding from oversold levels, suggesting strong bullish momentum [3] - On the hourly chart, gold prices are supported by the lower Bollinger Band and are experiencing a significant rebound, with key support at $3310 and resistance at $3380 [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the silicon wafer and silicon carbide sectors, driven by strong demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications [1][2]. Core Insights - The price of silicon wafers in China has been declining, with a forecast for stabilization by 2027 due to capacity expansion [1]. - The market for silicon carbide is significantly influenced by the electric vehicle sector, with penetration rates expected to reach 28% in 2025 and 40% in 2026 [1][7]. - The Chinese silicon wafer market is dominated by five companies, holding a 57% global market share, with significant improvements in technology quality [1][5]. - Geopolitical factors are impacting the semiconductor industry, necessitating careful consideration of tariffs and policies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Silicon Wafer Market - In 2024, the price of silicon wafers in China decreased by 17%, with further declines of 8% in 2025 and an expected 5% in 2026 [4]. - The market is expected to stabilize in 2027 as production capacity continues to expand [4]. Silicon Carbide Market - The price of silicon carbide fell by 16% in 2024 and is projected to decrease by 17% in 2025, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market [5][6]. - Local manufacturers are significantly increasing their output, contributing to the optimistic market outlook for silicon carbide substrate manufacturers [8]. Key Companies to Watch - Notable companies include Nora (silicon carbide and nitride equipment supplier), Xingyi and Sankexing (leaders in AI server orders), and SICC (local silicon carbide substrate leader) [2][15]. - Infineon is highlighted for its strong performance in silicon carbide strategy, with capabilities in IGBT and silicon wafer production, as well as involvement in AI power chips [1][16]. Geopolitical Considerations - The semiconductor industry faces pressures from geopolitical factors, including tariffs and trade policies, which could affect pricing and market dynamics [1][14]. - Investors are advised to weigh these geopolitical influences carefully when considering investments in the sector [14].

Summary of ASML Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ASML - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - ASML expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, below market expectations of €8.26 billion [2][4] - Gross margin is projected to be 50%-52%, influenced by high-end EUV equipment deliveries [2][5] - For the full year, ASML anticipates a 15% year-over-year revenue growth, maintaining a gross margin of 50%-52% [2][5] Market Outlook - ASML has not provided specific guidance for 2026, citing positive impacts from AI and multi-layer UV on EUV demand, but expresses caution due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][6] - Investors are concerned about the divergence in EUV growth rates, with ASML projecting a 30% increase, lower than the market's expectation of 40%-50% [2][7] - Customers are opting for platform upgrades instead of purchasing new equipment, affecting EUV shipment forecasts [2][7] Regional Insights - The semiconductor equipment spending in the U.S., mainland China, and Europe is expected to decline in 2025, while Taiwan and South Korea are projected to see significant growth rates of 60% and 37%, respectively [2][8] - SEMI predicts a 25% decline in semiconductor equipment spending in mainland China for 2025, followed by a 5% decrease in 2026, reflecting geopolitical impacts and capacity adjustments [2][10] Revenue Contribution - The contribution of mainland China to ASML's revenue is expected to stabilize at around 25%, up from an initial estimate of 20% [2][11] - Despite a 35% year-over-year decline in mainland China revenue in Q2 2025, Taiwan's revenue surged by 274% [3][12] Industry Trends - Infrastructure spending is projected to drop by 30% in 2025, with a recovery of 3% in 2026; equipment spending is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and 12% in 2026 [2][8] - The wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market is anticipated to see modest growth rates of 5%-6% in 2026 [2][9] Investor Sentiment - Investors are currently pessimistic about 2026 expectations, which are lower than industry association forecasts [2][14] - There is potential for investment opportunities if geopolitical tensions ease and visibility on major customer investments improves [2][14] North American Equipment Manufacturers - North American equipment manufacturers are expected to perform better due to advancements in processes, GAA, and advanced packaging, despite macroeconomic uncertainties affecting investment visibility [2][13] Additional Important Content - ASML's Q2 2025 revenue was €7.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, with net profit reaching €2.29 billion, a 45% increase [3][4] - The company reported a significant increase in EUV equipment revenue by 82%, while DUV equipment revenue declined by 10% [3][4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the geopolitical and economic strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the importance of technology and leverage in their future growth [1][2][3] - The US is expected to rely heavily on technology and leverage after 2025, moving away from previous population growth strategies [2][3] - Both the US and China share similar goals regarding technological advancement, but their approaches and levels of commitment differ due to various factors [5][6] Group 2 - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a shared strategic framework, which is a notable aspect of the current geopolitical landscape [4][7] - The EU's foreign policy is complicated by its relationship with NATO, leading to mixed signals and a lack of a unified stance on security matters [9][10] - Eastern European countries tend to favor US involvement over European solutions due to historical experiences, which complicates the EU's diplomatic efforts [11][12] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the differing perspectives within the EU regarding security and foreign policy, leading to hesitations and inconsistencies [17][18] - The EU's future is uncertain, as it faces challenges in population growth, technological advancement, and maintaining fiscal discipline in a competitive global environment [18][20] - The historical context of US-Soviet relations influences current US strategies, while China's unique development path presents its own set of challenges [19][20]

Group 1 - The European Union has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes measures to further target the Russian oil and energy industry, setting a dynamic price cap on Russian crude oil that is 15% lower than the average market price [2][4] - The market's reaction to the new sanctions has been muted, indicating skepticism among investors regarding the effectiveness of these measures and the potential for enforcement by the Trump administration [2][4] - The sanctions aim to reduce Russian oil revenues, which are a significant source of funding for the country, by lowering the price cap from $60 to $47.60 per barrel [2][4] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decline in single-family housing starts to an 11-month low, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [1][3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved, and inflation expectations continue to decline, which may lead to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, potentially boosting energy demand [1][3] - The interplay of conflicting economic data is weakening the momentum for oil demand, as the housing market struggles while consumer sentiment shows signs of recovery [3][5] Group 3 - The effectiveness of the EU sanctions is questioned, as the design and intent to suppress Russian oil revenues may not be sufficient to alter the geopolitical landscape or energy market dynamics [4][5] - The potential for supply chain disruptions exists due to the sanctions targeting Russian oil refineries and key importing countries like India, but current models suggest that geopolitical premiums have not yet translated into price support [4][5] - The oil market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with prices influenced by both oversupply concerns and geopolitical risks, reflecting a complex interplay of market sentiment and economic policies [5]