Group 1 - The U.S. government has unilaterally imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued import of Russian oil, raising the overall tariff rate on Indian products to 50% [1] - The new tariff policy is expected to reduce India's exports to the U.S. by 40% to 60%, significantly impacting key industries such as textiles, seafood processing, jewelry, and auto parts [1] - Over 200 small and medium-sized enterprises in Mumbai's textile sector are considering layoffs, potentially leading to a loss of at least 150,000 jobs, exacerbating India's already fragile employment market [1] Group 2 - The trade sanctions from the U.S. are prompting the Indian government to reassess its relationship with China, as India faces structural challenges in infrastructure, manufacturing upgrades, and employment [3] - India's electronics manufacturing sector has suffered a cumulative loss of $15 billion in output from 2020 to 2024 due to restrictions on Chinese technical personnel and investment approvals, resulting in the loss of approximately 100,000 technical jobs [3] - Indian business leaders believe that deepening industrial cooperation with China could attract much-needed capital and technology while diversifying trade risks [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's trade policy may be subject to change, contingent on India making substantial concessions regarding the U.S. trade deficit, including lowering tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports and increasing Boeing aircraft purchases [5] - India's recent high-level visits to China signal a strategic recalibration based on economic calculations, as India aims to attract $100 billion in foreign investment annually to achieve its goal of becoming one of the top three economies by 2030 [5] - The Indian government is revising its Foreign Exchange Management Act to allow Chinese investors to acquire stakes in Indian companies through an automatic route [5] Group 4 - India's strategic community is concerned about the deepening military cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan, as well as the partial thaw in U.S.-China relations, prompting India to consider improving its relationship with China to mitigate uncertainties in U.S. policy [7] - The Modi government's diplomatic adjustments are fundamentally based on a strategic rebalancing of national interests [7] Group 5 - As core members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China and India share broad consensus in global governance, advocating for reforms in the international financial system and opposing double standards on climate issues [8] - Future cooperation between China and India may include establishing a monthly meeting mechanism for brigade-level commanders to improve border crisis management and enhancing infrastructure financing cooperation under the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank framework [8] - Joint efforts to reform the United Nations Security Council could enhance the voice of Global South countries, laying the groundwork for a more stable regional environment [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has no plans to lower tariffs on India, which were recently doubled to 50% as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - Trump criticized India's high tariffs, stating that they have led to an imbalanced trade relationship, with India imposing some of the highest tariffs in the world [1] - The tariffs affect over 55% of goods exported from India to the U.S., which is India's largest market [1] Group 2 - The Indian government condemned the U.S. tariffs as unfair and plans to continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it is economically beneficial [2] - India has challenged U.S. tariffs on certain copper products at the World Trade Organization (WTO), arguing that the high tariffs restrict its exporters [2] - Trump is closely monitoring Russia's actions regarding negotiations with Ukraine and hinted at considering additional measures if talks do not progress [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that both the U.S. and India are open to resolving their tensions, with India's Commerce Minister expressing hope for a trade agreement by November [3] - The Indian Minister indicated that geopolitical issues are intertwined with trade discussions, emphasizing the desire to return to normalcy in U.S.-India trade relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues its bullish momentum, reaching a new historical high above $3500, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut bets and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have extended their upward trend for six consecutive days, surpassing $3500 [1] - The rebound of the US dollar from a one-month low has temporarily limited further gains in gold [1][3] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for further trading guidance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a potential increase in the ISM Manufacturing PMI from 48 in July to 49 in August, although it remains in contraction territory [3] - A disappointing ISM data release could lead to renewed selling pressure on the dollar, potentially supporting gold's record rise [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine continue to bolster gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky's announcement of plans for deeper strikes into Russia after recent attacks on Russian energy assets has drawn attention [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is targeting further increases, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71, not yet severely overbought [6] - The bullish crossover of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with the 50-day SMA supports gold's strong performance [6] - The new record high of $3509 sets the stage for a challenge at the psychological level of $3550, while any pullback would first test the intraday low of $3475 [6]

头号创作者激励计划 德国检方随后高调公布，被捕者正是北溪爆炸案的关键人物——乌克兰人谢尔盖·库兹涅佐夫。意大利 警方瞬间陷入尴尬，因为在移交尚未完成前，德国就已将此事昭告天下，直接指认乌克兰为幕后黑手。 更劲爆的是，《晚邮报》紧接着披露：整场行动仅花费30万欧元，乌克兰特工小队接单后就像完成一 桩"职业任务"，收钱、干活，一气呵成。 据报道，库兹涅佐夫为前乌军上尉、SBU特工，率领的7人小组由老练潜水员、乌军特种兵及一名女性 成员组成。他们租用了一艘名为"安德洛墨达号"的15米帆船，携带声呐、潜水装备和定制炸药，在水下 80米的深度作业：20分钟完成布置，3小时进行减压，24小时静养恢复。整个行动看似简陋，却因背后 可能存在的国家支持而充满疑点。德国调查人员的怀疑直指前乌军总司令扎卢日内，甚至有人暗示CIA 和美国政府也深度介入。没有这种层面的支持，单靠几名特工根本不可能完成。 2022年9月26日，发生在丹麦与瑞典近海的"北溪-1"和"北溪-2"天然气管道爆炸事件，成为震惊全球的重 大新闻。当时，水下炸药精准摧毁了三条管道，导致海底喷涌出大量天然气，画面骇人。这不仅直接打 击了俄罗斯对欧洲的能源供应，更引发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

Group 1 - Modi's visit to China for the SCO summit is seen as a strategic move to leverage China's influence in negotiations with Russia, especially in light of recent U.S. tariffs on Indian imports [1][3] - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, rising from less than 1% before the Ukraine conflict to 42% currently, with daily purchases reaching 2 million barrels [3][5] - The U.S. tariffs on India are perceived as a shift in strategy, moving away from supporting India as a counterbalance to China, and instead focusing on economic interests [5][6] Group 2 - The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan has diminished India's perceived strength, leading to a reassessment of its strategic value by the U.S. [6][9] - The U.S. is interested in opening India's agricultural market, which poses a significant risk to India's large farming population, potentially leading to widespread unemployment [9][11] - The core conflict between the U.S. and India revolves around agricultural market access, which is critical for India's economic stability and political landscape [9][11]

黄金方面： 地缘冲突在相对稳定一段时间之后又迎来升温。中东方面，也门胡塞武装准备与以色列展开对抗，土耳其方面也已经决定完全 切断与以色列的经济和商业联系，并且对其飞机关闭领空。 俄乌冲突方面也有所升温，8月29日俄乌在顿涅茨克重镇展开激烈交战，乌克兰方面计划对俄罗斯境内发动新一轮深入打击。欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩更是表示，欧盟已有明确的计划派兵乌克兰。 在地缘升温的同时，美联储官员们再度向市场释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示将在9月份降息。 技术面：日线上，近期行情总体维持在63-65美元区间震荡，短期大概率将延续。指标上看，62日均线延续下行，并且行情反弹 并没有有效上破65美元一线压力，后续行情重回弱势将是大概率事件。日内关注上方65美元一线压力情况。 美元指数： 数据方面看，美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，为2025年2月以来的新高，符合市场预期。数据公布之后，市场继续押 注美联储9月份降息。 美联储官员们继续释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示9月份降息；另外美国法官未就特朗普罢免库克案当庭做出裁决，这就意味 着这位利率决策者将继续留任。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，降息的预期叠加地缘摩 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights the longstanding special relationship between Russia and India, characterized by friendship and trust [1] - Modi expressed India's anticipation for Putin's visit in December, emphasizing the depth and breadth of their special relationship, which is crucial for global peace and stability [1] - The recent imposition of a 50% tariff by the U.S. on Indian goods, including a 25% punitive measure against India's purchase of Russian oil, is expected to impact $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports [1] Group 2 - In response to U.S. threats regarding oil purchases from Russia, the Indian government has taken a strong stance, criticizing the double standards of the U.S. and emphasizing its stable partnership with Russia [2] - India's historical ties with Russia date back to the Cold War, and the two countries have maintained close cooperation in energy and military sectors, with a recent $248 million deal for T-72 tank engines [2] - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Russia was not a major oil supplier to India, but has since become the largest source due to discounted oil sales, with India importing an average of 1.75 million barrels per day from Russia in the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - Despite initial reports of Indian state-owned refineries pausing Russian oil purchases, companies like Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have resumed buying Russian oil for September and October deliveries, attracted by the price discount [3] - The relationship between India and the U.S. appears to be cooling, with reports indicating Modi's refusal to engage in phone conversations with Trump since June, and Trump's plans to cancel his visit to India [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. At the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The contango of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while that of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the diesel crack spread in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have slightly increased, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased seasonally, the absolute inventory is at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil contango is expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the expected adjustment of European autumn maintenance, the forecast of the European diesel crack spread in the fourth quarter is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 25 - 29, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59, BRENT decreased by $1.14, and DUBAI increased by $0.01. Among other related indicators, SC increased by 3.50, OMAN decreased by 0.83, etc. [3] 2. Daily News - The CEO of a Russian oil company expects the global oil market surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level since 2007 due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 lots to 24,225 lots, the lowest since January 2007, and short - only bets on WTI crude oil reached a 20 - month high [3]. - The U.S. Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production reached 1.92 million barrels per day in June 2025, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - Due to increased production from major oil - producing countries and U.S. tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, and that of U.S. crude oil is $64.65 per barrel [4]. - Despite sanctions and U.S. tariffs, Russia's oil exports to India will increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. U.S. crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5][6].