Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly observed significant economic performance disparities across different regions in the U.S., with Las Vegas concerned about reduced international tourism, while states like Utah and Alaska maintain robust economic activity [3] - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a "divided" state regarding the economic outlook, with Daly expressing optimism about the economy's strength and declining inflation, while Vice Chair Jefferson warns of declining confidence among businesses and households [3] - Jefferson highlighted that if Trump's tariff policies continue to escalate, it could hinder the decline in inflation and potentially lead to rising prices again, indicating increasing uncertainty within the Fed regarding future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3155.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.78%, with a daily high of $3195.60 and a low of $3150.90 [4] - The short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3358 and $3368, while support levels are noted between $3130 and $3140 [4]

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...

美国总统特朗普：（潜在的）税收法案有望推动美国经济腾飞。 ...

分析师：4月CPI报告对美债市场来说是一份不错的报告 金十数据5月13日讯，AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示，总的来说，相 对于最近美债收益率的上升，这份CPI报告对债券市场来说是一份不错的报告，而且我们可能需要几个 月的时间才能对美国经济有一个更清晰的了解。交易前景仍然是美联储有降息空间，尽管短期内持谨慎 态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].

美联储理事巴尔：美国经济仍处于良好状态。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：迄今为止的数据与美国经济强劲、失业率低的情况相符。 ...

德国总理默茨：美国总统特朗普也在讨论关税争端对美国经济的损害。 ...

美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔新闻发布会要点总结：年内第三次维持利率决议不变 鲍威尔重申美联 储无需急于降息 ②鲍威尔表示，美联储不需要急于调整利率。 ③鲍威尔表示，美联储的政策是适度限制的。 ④鲍威尔表示，特朗普要求降息的呼吁完全不影响美联储的工作。 ⑤被问及3月预期两次降息时，鲍威尔表示，现在不能做出预测，要等到6月份。 二、通胀方面 ①FOMC声明显示，委员会判断失业率和通胀上升的风险已经加剧。 ②FOMC声明显示，通胀仍然处于略高企水平。 ③鲍威尔表示，通胀已经大幅度下降。 ④鲍威尔表示，短期通胀预期有所上升，长期通胀预期与目标保持一致。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，美联储有义务稳定通胀预期。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经上升，但还没有出现在数据中。 三、美国经济 ①FOMC声明显示，美国经济前景不确定性进一步增加。 ②FOMC声明显示，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。 ③鲍威尔表示，经济处于稳健状态。 ④鲍威尔表示，贸易的异常波动使衡量GDP变得复杂。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，经济路径的不确定性极高，下行风险已增加。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，GDP数据的波动不会真正改变美联储的处境。 四、金融市场 ①FOMC声明显示， ...

金十数据5月8日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔承认，不确定性正在影响经济决策，但他再次肯定，美国经济仍 然处于良好状态。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上回答问题时表示："尽管个人和企业的一些非常悲观的情绪笼 罩着经济，但经济仍然健康。" 鲍威尔安抚市场：经济仍然健康 ...