美联储理事沃勒周五表示，他在本周美联储会议上反对维持利率不变，主张降息25个基点，因为他认为 本已疲软的劳动力市场存在"重大风险"，可能出现更严重的下滑。 "对于未来就业增长存在相当大的疑虑，"沃勒在解释其反对意见的声明中表示。他同时指出，去年疲软 的就业增长及其他数据"意味着劳动力市场出现显著恶化是一项重大风险。" 沃勒表示，他认为当前政策仍对经济活动造成过度抑制。他称，政策应更接近中性利率，或约在3%， 而当前利率区间为3.50%至3.75%。 他称，尽管经济增长稳健，劳动力市场依然疲弱，劳动力市场一点也谈不上健康，虽然供给是一个因 素，但需求依然疲软。他并称，预计去年发布的已经很疲弱的就业数据将被下修，从而反映2025年就业 几乎没有增长。 沃勒表示，关税推动通胀攀升，但在通胀预期已锚定的情况下，货币政策应当将目光投向这类影响之 外。他称，剔除关税影响后，通胀接近美联储2%的目标，并正朝着目标迈进。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 美联储理事沃勒周五表示，他在本周美联储会议上反对维持利率不变，主张降息25个基点，因为他认为 本已疲软的劳动力市场存在"重大风险"，可能出现更严重的下滑。 "对于未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown strong performance against the US dollar (USD) and is positioned as a leading currency among G10 currencies, driven by monetary policy divergence and robust commodity prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.7016, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 4% [1]. - The AUD has consistently broken key resistance levels against the USD, reaching a 16-month high of 0.6931 on January 26 and further climbing to 0.7050 [1]. - The AUD/CNY exchange rate has shown high volatility, fluctuating between 4.86 and 4.90, indicating a strong overall performance since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 3.6% and indicated a shift towards potential rate hikes, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts [2]. - Australia's consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December 2025, exceeding the RBA's target range, which has strengthened the case for interest rate increases [2]. - The market is pricing in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in March, with predictions that the benchmark rate could rise to 3.85% [2]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Economic Indicators - The AUD is closely linked to commodity prices, with recent strong performances in gold, copper, and iron ore, benefiting Australia's trade balance [3]. - Australia's GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a robust economic environment [3]. - The National Australia Bank's business survey showed a capacity utilization rate of 83.3%, reflecting strong operational performance across sectors [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD index has weakened due to expectations of coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen and rising concerns over US government debt [4]. - The AUD is viewed as a preferred alternative investment due to its high yield and solid fundamentals, with analysts expressing optimism about its future performance [4]. - Technical indicators suggest a clear bullish trend for the AUD/USD, with significant support levels identified at 0.7000 and 0.6931 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from major banks predict that the AUD/USD could reach the 0.70 mark by the end of March 2026, with a probability exceeding 70% according to options market data [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, potential risks include a downturn in commodity prices, lower-than-expected interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions that could affect the AUD's performance [6]. - Key variables to monitor include the RBA's upcoming policy meeting, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and changes in Chinese demand and commodity prices [6].

当地时间1月29日，南非储备银行宣布维持基准利率在6.75%不变，同步将主要贷款利率保持在 10.25%，延续此前货币政策立场。 南非储备银行表示，此次利率决策旨在观察通胀预期是否进一步下行，同时密切关注食品、电价领域存 在的潜在价格上行压力。该行货币政策委员会内部存在分歧，4名委员支持维持当前利率水平，2名委员 则主张下调25个基点。 南非央行行长卡尼亚戈指出，央行判断2025年12月或已成为通胀阶段性高点，后续通胀将逐步放缓。数 据显示，南非2025年12月整体通胀率升至3.6%，较11月小幅上行，高于央行设定的3%通胀目标。 南非储备银行同步调整通胀预测，将2026年平均通胀率预期从此前的3.5%下调至3.3%，2027年预期从 此前的3.1%上调至3.2%；经济增长预期保持不变，预计2026年经济增长率为1.4%，2027年为1.9%。 此外，兰特自2025年11月上次货币政策会议以来累计升值超8%，表现优于多数新兴市场货币。南非将 于2月发布国家预算案，市场正关注政府支出是否与低通胀目标保持一致。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

如市场所料，在2026年首场利率决议中，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%至3.75%不变。 尽管决议获得多数赞成，美联储内部分歧仍存，两位美联储理事投出反对票、主张降息25个基点。 在 市场充分定价的背景下，此次会议的焦点并非"降息与否"，而是美联储如何在政治压力下坚守独立性防 线。在货币政策新闻发布会上，面对是否留任理事、刑事调查等敏感问题，美联储主席鲍威尔避而不 谈，同时强调希望继任者"远离政治"。 分析认为，当前美国经济在就业韧性和通胀预期之间达成了微 妙平衡，且美联储需要维护政策独立性立场，这共同抬高了美联储进一步降息的门槛。与此同时，随着 美联储换帅时点的临近，下一任美联储主席人选的不确定性也为市场预期增添了新的变量。 美联储维 持利率不变 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不 变，暂停了此前连续三次的降息，符合市场预期。 尽管决议获得多数赞成，美联储内部分歧仍存。美 联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒在本次会议上投出反对票，主张降息25个基点。其中，沃勒被 市场视为潜在的下一任美联储主席人选之一，他展现出支持继续降息的倾向，也让市 ...

Market Overview - The market showed significant divergence today, with traditional blue-chip sectors like liquor and real estate surging, leading to a substantial rise in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while technology sectors such as semiconductors and chips weakened, resulting in notable declines in the STAR Market and ChiNext Index [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 3,500 stocks declining [1] Key Signals - Three major changes in the market were noted: 1. The simultaneous rise of real estate and liquor stocks indicates potential structural volatility as the market rotates towards these rebound assets [1] 2. The recent surge in commodities, including gold, reflects liquidity trends, while cryptocurrencies have remained relatively subdued, suggesting inflation expectations may significantly impact AI and computing power [1] 3. The unexpected performance of government bonds, particularly the strong showing of 30-year treasury futures, indicates a complex narrative in the market, suggesting that the rotation is not strictly binary [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly liquor and retail, saw a significant afternoon rally, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Precious metals and oil and gas stocks experienced volatility but ultimately rallied, with China Gold achieving five consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Gold four consecutive limit-ups [1] - AI application concepts surged, with multiple stocks like Sai Group and Tiandi Online hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector also saw gains, with Qingdao Bank hitting the daily limit, while semiconductor, military, and automotive sectors faced the largest declines [1] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as advertising, software development, and liquor, with significant net inflows into stocks like BlueFocus, Kweichow Moutai, and iFlytek [3] Future Outlook - Short-term market trends indicate a continued oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to maintain an upward trajectory, although space for growth before the Spring Festival appears limited [2][8] - The market sentiment is supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing monetary easing, which may provide a conducive environment for further capital inflow [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and North American tech giants are anticipated to have a more pronounced impact on market structure [6]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a Q3 2025 GDP growth rate of 4.4% year-on-year, although private investment contributed only 0.03 percentage points to this growth[2] - Non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, indicating a mixed labor market[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation continued to decline, with December 2025 CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, approaching the Fed's 2% target[2] - The Fed's decision to hold rates steady is justified by the ongoing economic conditions and previous rate cuts in late 2025[1][2] - Future monetary policy may see 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50-75 basis points, potentially faster and more aggressive than current market expectations[6] Political and Institutional Challenges - Increased political pressure on the Fed since April 2025 poses risks to its independence, with potential impacts on inflation expectations and long-term price stability[3][5] - The upcoming transition in the Fed chair position may influence the committee's focus on potential economic downturns, leading to a more proactive approach in monetary policy adjustments[6] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market signals are lagging, complicating the Fed's ability to gauge inflation accurately, as the relationship between wage growth and prices has weakened[6] - The Fed may adopt a forward-looking risk management approach, adjusting policies before clear signs of labor market deterioration emerge[6]

一是地产股和白酒齐飞，当板块轮动到地产和白酒这类补涨资产时，市场的结构性波动可能会加大。 二是包括黄金在内的大宗商品近期持续飙升，同样反映流动性的虚拟币近期却低调很多，通胀预期可能 成为AI和算力的最大变数。 三是在通胀预期被调动之时，国债的表现也让人意外，近期30年期国债期货亦明显强势，逻辑仍处于复 杂的演绎当中，轮动似乎也未到"非此即彼"之时。 1月29日，白酒股午后持续拉升，贵州茅台"罕见"大涨8%，皇台酒业涨停； 消息面上，飞天茅台价格节前连续上涨，整箱批价突破1600元。第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026 年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前 几日茅台的批价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。记者在"i茅台"平台看到，1499元的普茅连续第29天在多次秒 空后显示售罄。 据券商中国，值得注意的是，市场迎来了三大变局信号： ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ANZ Bank's latest monthly business outlook survey indicates a significant decline in New Zealand's business confidence index from a 30-year high in December 2025, suggesting potential challenges ahead for the economy [1] Group 1: Business Confidence - The net percentage of businesses expecting an improvement in future economic conditions dropped to 64.1% in January from 73.6% in December 2025, a decrease of nearly 10 percentage points [1] - The proportion of businesses anticipating growth in their own operations fell from 60.9% to 51.6% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite the decline in confidence indicators, most sub-indicators reflecting actual economic activity remain at high levels, supporting strong GDP growth projections for Q4 2025 [1] - Analysts believe that New Zealand's economy still possesses a degree of resilience as it approaches early 2026 [1] Group 3: Inflation Pressures - Signals reflecting inflationary pressures have significantly increased, with a notable rise in businesses' pricing expectations [1] - This trend diverges from the current inflation forecast path of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), potentially posing challenges for monetary policy and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]