Economic Data Summary - S&P Global PMIs indicate manufacturing PMI at 52.2%, exceeding expectations of 51.9%, signaling expansion [1][2] - Services PMI also surpassed expectations at 55.2%, compared to the anticipated 53.5%, showing month-over-month improvement [2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Production volumes in manufacturing increased for the fifth consecutive month, marking the largest expansion since August [2] - Domestic orders are driving growth, while export orders have significantly declined, the steepest drop since February, attributed to tariff policies and weaker demand from China and Europe [3] Services Sector Insights - The services sector is experiencing a deceleration in input and output prices, but faces challenges in employment due to a lack of qualified candidates [4] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey shows little change, with consumer expectations at 50.3%, sentiment at 53.6%, and current conditions at 58.6% [6][7] - One-year inflation expectations remain stable at 4.6%, indicating no significant shifts in consumer outlook [8] Inflation and Market Reaction - CPI year-over-year is reported at 3%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI also matches at 3% [14][15] - Month-over-month CPI figures came in slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a positive market reaction [13][16] Market Performance and Technical Analysis - S&P 500 reached a key resistance level at 6,800, with potential for further gains if it breaks through this level [18][19] - Leading sectors include communication services, technology, and financials, which are performing well in the current market environment [20]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data is critical, as a higher-than-expected reading could disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts and negatively impact the recent strong rebound in U.S. stock and bond markets since October [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices despite the government shutdown delaying key economic data [1]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]. - If the September CPI data exceeds expectations, it could lead to a sharp rise in Treasury yields, negatively affecting global stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI for September will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, both indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8]. - There is a prevailing concern that strong inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in further rate cuts, as indicated by various market strategists [10][11]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but a significant rise in inflation could jeopardize these expectations [9]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The strong performance of major tech companies and the AI sector has driven a historic investment surge in U.S. equities, with indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Global Index reaching new highs [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical component in equity valuation models, and a sustained decline below 4% could support a continued bull market in stocks, particularly in technology [3][4]. - If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could lead to a reassessment of risk asset valuations, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are currently at historical highs [4][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming China-US trade negotiations from October 24 - 27 have boosted market optimism. However, the new US sanctions on a Russian oil company have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing inflation expectations, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rebound. The domestic economy is growing faster, and the impending trade negotiations have lifted domestic market sentiment. The Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, with manufacturing and technological self - reliance taking the lead, which is expected to enhance domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach. Treasury bonds are also expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is recommended; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, and a cautious long - position is also suggested; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is appropriate; precious metals are experiencing a short - term correction at high levels, and it is advisable to observe cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro - situation**: Overseas, the upcoming China - US trade negotiations have boosted global risk appetite, but US sanctions on a Russian oil company have increased inflation expectations. Domestically, the economy is growing faster, and the trade negotiations are expected to lift the domestic market. Policy - wise, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee's stance is favorable for domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation [2]. - **Asset suggestions**: Stock index: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; Treasury bonds: short - term fluctuation, cautious observation; commodities - black metals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; non - ferrous metals: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; energy and chemicals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; precious metals: short - term high - level correction, cautious observation [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as coal, energy metals, and film and television theaters. The improving domestic economy and upcoming trade negotiations have boosted market sentiment. Policy support from the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee has enhanced risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to take a cautious long - position in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. Geopolitical risks and anticipation of US inflation data drove the increase. Spot gold rose 0.76% to $4125 per ounce. In the short term, precious metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term investors should reduce long - positions and observe, while long - term investors should buy on dips [3]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the steel futures and spot markets rebounded to varying degrees, with low trading volumes. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations have maintained strong macro expectations. The real - world demand for steel has improved marginally, with a 27.41 - million - ton decrease in inventory and a 17.32 - million - ton increase in apparent consumption this week. Supply has increased slightly but is expected to decline due to compressed steel mill profits. The steel market has no clear trend, with limited upward and downward space in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rebound. Steel mill profits are compressed, leading to a three - week decline in pig iron production, and further decline is expected. Steel mills are mainly making just - in - time purchases. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 million tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 million tons. The price difference between Carajas fines (Carajás) and PB fines has narrowed. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferro - alloy**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese were stable, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferro - alloys is currently stable. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased, and the daily output rose. The prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.5 Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is in a capacity - expansion phase, with plans for new capacity in the fourth quarter, resulting in high supply and inventory. Although there are anti - involution policies, the industry lacks clear policy implementation. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices, and a bearish outlook is maintained [8]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of operating production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. With anti - involution policies providing some support, but limited demand growth, short - term range - bound trading is recommended [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper reached its highest level since October 9. High US copper inventories may limit future imports. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has tightened the global copper supply, but it is a temporary situation, and next year is expected to be a year of increased copper supply. China's refined copper inventory reduction has been less than expected. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, SHFE aluminum rose significantly due to a positive macro environment and a general increase in commodity prices. An overseas aluminum smelter's accident has a limited impact on production. China's aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction. However, market expectations are positive, and short - selling should be cautious [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, Indonesia's actions have tightened the global tin supply in the short term, and the mining approval cycle adjustment has added uncertainty. The smelting start - up rate has recovered. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder is low, and demand in traditional and emerging industries is weak. High tin prices have suppressed consumption, but inventory has decreased due to some downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 4.17%. The market is experiencing both increased supply and demand, with strong seasonal demand and continuous inventory reduction. The market is strengthening with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure zone [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main industrial silicon contract rose 2.72%. Production reached a new high, but there has been no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.07%. The market is facing high supply and low demand. Expectations of policies such as state purchases are awaited, and attention should be paid to spot price support [13][14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybeans rose overnight. Brazil's soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentina's weather conditions are favorable. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations, and attention should be paid to China - US soybean trade developments [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a widespread phenomenon of hastening the delivery of soybean meal. Oil mills are facing losses, increasing their willingness to support prices. There is a potential supply gap in the domestic market before the arrival of South American new soybeans next year. After a sharp decline, soybean meal is expected to stabilize with fluctuations. Rapeseed meal is in a state of balanced supply and demand, and its price is mainly influenced by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term prices of soybean and rapeseed oil may be dragged down by palm oil. Soybean oil is in the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. Palm oil is weak due to increased production in Malaysia. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to continue to adjust. Rapeseed oil is supported by inventory reduction before new supplies arrive [16]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production has increased in October, and China's palm oil inventory has increased due to concentrated arrivals. MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain stable above 4400 ringgit per ton for the rest of 2025 [16]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' willingness to build inventories is relatively low. The price is approaching the cost of production, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the weather cools. The buying sentiment in the futures market has increased [17]. - **Hogs**: The price of hogs in the north has risen, increasing the cost of secondary fattening and reducing the enthusiasm of secondary fatteners. The breeding industry is facing losses, and the supply peak has not yet arrived. The price is expected to remain weak before the winter solstice consumption peak. The LH2601 futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has declined, and the A - share market has seen a shrinking - volume weak oscillation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, it is cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market oscillated and rebounded, and a wait - and - see approach is still recommended [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to economic data, the medium - term adjustment trend remains unchanged [4]. - Copper prices are oscillating. Before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market is cautious. The overseas macro environment is unstable, and the fundamentals show that supply is constrained and consumption is slightly suppressed, so copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to perform well. Overseas supply is affected, and the domestic market follows the upward trend of the overseas market [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and stagnant at a low level. Supply is in an oversupply state, but there is cost support at the futures end [9][10]. - Zinc prices are experiencing a weak rebound. Overseas squeeze - out support exists, but the domestic high - inventory pressure remains [11][12]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. Transportation control and production adjustment of some refineries support the price in the short - term, but there is downward pressure in the future [13][14][15]. - Tin prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Supply and demand are both weak, and there are few new contradictions [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Supply is stable, and demand is mixed. The market is waiting for policies in the polysilicon industry [17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may see a short - term upward trend driven by bulls, but the upside is not expected to be overly high [19][20]. - Nickel prices may have a technical rebound due to cost support [21]. - For soda ash and glass, the strategy of widening the price difference can be gradually stopped, and the market will be in an oscillating and wait - and - see state later [22]. - Steel prices are under oscillating pressure. Spot trading is stable, but terminal demand is weak [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. Supply is high, and demand is weakening [25]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are weakly oscillating. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the lower support range [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [30] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, and other aspects from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and related data on warehouse receipts, inventories, and premiums from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - Similar data summaries are provided for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal, including price changes, warehouse receipt and inventory data, and other relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38]

Core Viewpoint - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley questions Powell's neutral interest rate assessment, warning that further rate cuts could lead to inflation if monetary policy does not effectively restrain economic growth [2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Dudley suggests that if the Fed cuts rates next week, it will be based on the assumption that current monetary policy is restrictive and suppressing economic growth, a view he believes carries risks [2] - Powell argues for a neutral monetary policy, citing recession risks in the labor market, which he believes offset inflation risks from rising import tariffs [2] - The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model predicts a 3.8% growth rate for Q3, higher than the previous estimate of 3.0%, contradicting the notion of a restrictive monetary policy [2] Group 2: Financial Environment and Market Dynamics - The FOMC assesses the neutral interest rate (r*) based on actual interest rate effects, indicating that their median estimate of r* at 3.0% may be too low [3] - Financial conditions have significantly eased over the past year, with stock prices rising, bond yields falling, and a weaker dollar, suggesting the current financial environment is the most accommodative since April 2022 [3] - The surge in AI investments has led to a substantial increase in the market capitalization of the "seven tech giants," raising their share from about 1/5 at the end of 2022 to approximately 1/3 now [3] Group 3: Inflation Risks and Expectations - The likelihood of inflation exceeding the Fed's target for a fifth consecutive year is high, with the FOMC projecting inflation will not return to 2% until 2028 [4] - Consumer confidence surveys indicate rising long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that the Fed may need to signal that future rate cuts will not meet market expectations [4] - To better achieve its inflation and employment goals, the Fed must manage market expectations regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the gold price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has significantly cooled. Despite short - term capital pressure making the gold price weak, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Silver: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the silver price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai silver has rapidly and significantly expanded to 300 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. With cooling trade concerns, the silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%. The US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1257. The basis of gold was - 2.31, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 87015 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce. The basis of silver was - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 57674 kilograms to 691688 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, but it is weak in the short term due to capital pressure. Today, pay attention to the closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, as well as speeches by members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [4]. - Silver: The silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Photovoltaic Industry High - Quality Development and Technology Standards Forum; South Korea's central bank to announce interest - rate decision. - 15:30: Swiss National Bank to release the meeting minutes of the September interest - rate decision. - 17:15: Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Woods, to speak on economic growth in northern England. - 19:00: Central Bank of Ukraine to announce interest - rate decision. - 20:00: Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, to speak. - 21:00: Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Dhingra, to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision, Bowman, to testify on the supervision of financial regulatory agencies at a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, and possibly release the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in September. - 22:25: Fed Governor Barr to speak on "community investment" at a tax conference [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 6.81% to 175,296, the short positions decreased by 8.20% to 68,493, and the net position decreased by 5.90% to 106,803 [28]. - Silver: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.56% to 362,840, the short positions decreased by 9.41% to 270,707, and the net position increased by 18.99% to 92,133 [31].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices, from over $1,500 per ounce in 2020 to over $4,200 currently, is primarily driven by excessive money supply, leading to currency devaluation and increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Money Supply and Gold Prices - "Excessive money supply" refers to central banks printing large amounts of money, exemplified by the Federal Reserve increasing its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $8.96 trillion post-2020, effectively printing money equivalent to decades of previous issuance [1][4]. - The relationship between money supply and gold prices is illustrated by historical data, such as during the 2008 financial crisis when the Fed's quantitative easing led to a tripling of gold prices from $700 to $1,920 per ounce [4]. - A 1% increase in the U.S. M2 money supply correlates with an average monthly increase of 0.0113% in London gold prices, indicating that 78% of gold price fluctuations are related to excessive money supply [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Gold Demand - Increased money supply typically results in inflation, which has been observed with rising prices for essential goods like food and fuel [3]. - Anticipation of inflation drives investors to buy gold as a protective measure, with gold prices rising by 28% in 2023 due to inflation expectations even before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates [3][4]. - Lower interest rates, resulting from increased money supply, reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment [3]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Gold Investment - Economic conditions influence gold prices; during strong economic periods, such as in 2017, gold prices rose only 13% as investors favored stocks and real estate [6]. - Conversely, in weaker economic conditions, such as projected low global growth in 2025, gold prices can surge significantly as investors seek safety [6]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar due to excessive printing makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, further increasing demand [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy for Gold - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly interest rate changes, as these can significantly impact gold prices [8]. - A recommended allocation of 10%-15% of an investment portfolio to gold is suggested for hedging against currency devaluation, balancing the need for protection without overly compromising potential returns [8]. - Investors should be cautious of the volatility in gold prices, as they can decline during periods of interest rate hikes, emphasizing the importance of strategic buying during market corrections [9].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% by the end of 2028, primarily due to increasing government deficits and economic pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Predictions - The average mortgage rate has remained above 6% for the past three years, currently at 6.27% [4]. - The MBA's economic research team forecasts that mortgage rates will stay above 6% until 2028, despite potential short-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Some institutions are slightly more optimistic, predicting rates may dip below 6% by the end of 2026, but experts remain skeptical [5]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - Despite high interest rates, the volume of home sales is expected to slightly increase, with an estimated 5 million homes sold next year, up from 4.8 million this year, due to increased housing supply [10]. - National home prices are predicted to decline for several quarters before gradually recovering by the end of 2027 [12]. - Regional disparities in housing prices are significant, with states like Florida and Colorado experiencing price drops due to increased supply, while states like New York and Illinois see faster price increases due to limited supply [13]. Group 3: Financial Burdens on Homebuyers - The current median monthly mortgage payment is approximately $2,067, which, while slightly lower than peak levels, remains significantly higher than five years ago [14]. - Many buyers are shifting to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or FHA loans to reduce monthly payments [15]. - Rising property taxes and homeowners' insurance add to the financial strain on both prospective and current homeowners [16][17].

Report Overview - This is a precious metals morning report released on October 22, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Due to profit - taking by funds and a stronger US dollar, gold prices dropped significantly, with an intraday decline of over 5.7%, the largest single - day decline since 2013. However, long - term upward trends remain due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the short term, prices are likely to be volatile under capital pressure [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices also tumbled, with an intraday decline of nearly 8%. It still has support as it follows gold prices, but there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures closed down 5.07% at $4138.5 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%, and the US dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.97 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures closed down 6.27% at $48.16 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index had the same changes as gold [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the UK's September CPI and the speech of the ECB President. The long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, but it is volatile in the short term [4]. - **Silver**: Although silver prices are supported by following gold, there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September imports, exports, and trade balance; Time TBD China's Solid - State Battery Conference; 10:00 Thailand's central bank's October monetary policy meeting minutes and policy forum analyst meeting; 14:00 UK's September CPI; 19:00 ECB Deputy President de Guindos' speech; 20:25 ECB President Lagarde's speech; Next day 05:00 Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods' speech [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.03, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts are 86,565 kg, a daily decrease of 1,959 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 15, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 749,362 kg, a daily decrease of 106,488 kg [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relief of the US credit crisis and the expectation of the end of the government shutdown may put pressure on precious metal prices. However, factors such as the weakening employment performance in the US leading to an increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, tight inter - bank liquidity potentially causing the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction by the end of 2025, the proactive fiscal expansion expectations of many global countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and intractable geopolitical risks provide long - term support for precious metal prices [3]. - It is expected that precious metal prices may be adjusted. Investors are advised to wait for price pull - backs before establishing long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The US outstanding public debt scale reached $3.80 trillion, an increase of $102.7 billion from the previous week. The net issuance of US federal government treasury bonds in Q3 2025 was $964.5 billion, and the net issuance in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter. The CBO's 2025 forecast shows that making the expanded additional tax credits permanent may increase the fiscal deficit by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035, and repealing health insurance - related provisions may increase the fiscal deficit by $1.4 - $37.5 billion from 2026 - 2035 [10]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $4.1 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased from the previous week to $2.99 trillion, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased to $347.9 billion, and the US Treasury cash account increased to $852 billion. The US Congress has not passed a new temporary appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with 4,108 federal employees laid off [11][13]. - The Fed's rediscount loan to commercial banks decreased to $6.018 billion from the previous week, the seasonal loan increased to $0.49 billion, and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expired on March 11 and dropped to $0 [14]. - Due to the relief of the US credit crisis, the Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) suspended operations on October 17, after having a scale of $15.1 billion on October 15 and 16 [15]. - The medium - and long - term inflation expectations implied by US Treasury bonds decreased, but the one - year and five - year inflation expectations of consumers in September were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, remaining flat or higher than the previous values. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September consumer - end inflation CPI data on October 24 [16][17]. - Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market and the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and end of balance - sheet reduction led to a decline in the yields of short -, medium -, and long - term US Treasury bonds [19]. - The difference between long - and medium - term US Treasury bond yields was positive, but the difference between long - and short - to medium - term Treasury bond yields narrowed due to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts [22][23]. - The US Office of Financial Research (OFR) Financial Stress Index increased from the previous week to - 1.8610, mainly due to the Fed's continuous balance - sheet reduction and the US Treasury's reconstruction of the cash account, which tightened inter - bank market liquidity [24]. Second Part: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased quarter - on - quarter. The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases was 0.01%, with different changes in various types of loans such as business and industrial loans, residential real estate loans, etc. [29][31]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales increased to 5.9% from the previous week, indicating stable consumer spending [34]. - The US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index decreased to 317.2 from the previous week. The 15 - year and 30 - year fixed mortgage rates decreased to 5.52% and 6.27% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in August increased to 4.8 million units [37]. - As of September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 218,000, lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims was 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The ADP non - farm private employment in September was - 32,000, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating concerns about the weakening of the US employment market [40]. - The differences in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany and Japan decreased due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different monetary policy expectations of central banks in different countries [41][43]. - The euro - to - dollar exchange rate began to rise, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate began to weaken due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different economic and political situations in different countries [44]. - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index decreased, while the volatility of the gold ETF increased [46]. Third Part: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from the previous week [55]. - The total inventory of gold in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from the previous week, with the COMEX gold futures inventory decreasing and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures inventory increasing [59][60]. - The differences between domestic and foreign gold futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign gold futures or spot prices [64]. - The London - COMEX gold basis was negative and at a relatively low level, while the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange was positive and at a relatively high level. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [66]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to take profit on last week's long positions in the Shanghai gold monthly spread at high prices [69]. - The 1 - month London silver lease rate began to decline, and the supply shortage in the London silver market may be alleviated [71][73]. - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased quarter - on - quarter, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings increased from the previous week [75]. - The total inventory of silver in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased from the previous week [77][79]. - The differences between domestic and foreign silver futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign silver futures or spot prices [82]. - The overseas and Shanghai silver bases were positive and at relatively high levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [83]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the Shanghai silver near - and far - month contract spread [85]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was higher than the 25% and 50% quantiles of the past five years respectively. Investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - silver ratio" cautiously [87]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the expected increase in oil production by OPEC +, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously. The "gold - copper ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was also much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously [89].