Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more favorable outlook for bonds amid expectations of continued monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached 1.793%, marking a significant decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The bond futures market saw an overall increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 108.490 [2]. - The yield on the "25附息国债16" bond fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.8%, while the yield on the "25超长特别国债06" bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.2275% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent bond market recovery is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with increased volatility in equity and commodity markets providing a safe haven for investors [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.3%, raising expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan as of February 6, indicating strong institutional support for the bond market [3][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Analysts suggest that the market is currently betting on potential interest rate cuts post-Spring Festival, with the upcoming inflation data being a key focus [6][8]. - The 7-day reverse repo rate is seen as a critical factor influencing the downward trend of the 10-year government bond yield, with recent rates dropping to 1.4% [6][7]. - There is an expectation of policy rate cuts in the next 2-3 months as internal and external constraints on monetary easing have eased [7][8].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 短期内国债期货延续震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。由于最新宏观经济指标有所走弱，有效 需求不足的问题显现，"弱现实"压力上升，未来降息预期升温。另外临近 长假，流动性趋紧，加上避险需求提升国债配置需求，国债期货震荡偏强。 不过短期内美联储降息预期放缓，加上央行货币宽松政策以结构性降息为 主，短期内全面降息的必要性不强，国债期货上行空间有限。总的来说， 短期内国债期货延续震荡整理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold experienced a significant rebound, soaring nearly 4% in a single day, with prices approaching $4955, and currently trading around $5025 [1] - Silver showed even more volatility, plummeting 10% before rebounding over 9% to close at $77.50, and is now trading around $81.79 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1206.95 points, a 2.47% increase, reaching a record close above 50000 points [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated the possibility of one or two rate cuts to address the weak labor market, marking the first mention of rate cuts since the recent market downturn [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is estimated at 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of maintaining current rates [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of job growth between 60,000 and 80,000, which could influence rate cut expectations if the numbers fall short [8] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also set to be released, with predictions of a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [10] Group 5: Market Signals and Risks - The "Hindenburg Omen" has been triggered multiple times in the past six months, historically indicating potential market tops, suggesting that investors may face further losses despite recent rebounds [12] Group 6: Geopolitical Developments - U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have concluded temporarily, with ongoing tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program and U.S. sanctions [13][15] - Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation include the arrest of a suspect involved in an attack on a Russian general, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [17]

基本面： 周一（2月9日）黄金价格早盘高开大涨，随后大跌，市场短线追空或者等地回落支撑位多单布局，金价早盘上演绝地反击，单日狂飙近4%，现货价格一度 逼近每盎司4955美元，周线顽强收涨。现货黄金延续涨势，一度上涨1.7%至5046.15美元/盎司。与此同时，白银的波动更为剧烈，上周五盘中暴跌后10%后 大幅反弹，收盘上涨逾9%，收报77.50美元/盎司，波动幅度令人咋舌，周一续涨3%至79.90美元/盎司。这绝非简单的技术性反弹，其背后是美元指数的微妙 转向、中东地缘政治"火药桶"引信的忽明忽暗、以及全球央行政策路径的混沌交织。 本次金价暴力拉升，最直接的催化剂来自于外汇市场与地缘政治两个层面的"共振"。美元的"短暂喘息"：美元指数在上周五下跌0.2%，结束了连续多日的强 势。尽管整周仍录得上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日元等其他货币的投资者而言变 得"更便宜"，从而刺激了实物买盘和投资需求。这种"跷跷板"效应在情绪敏感时期总是被放大。中东迷雾中的"避险脉冲"：伊朗方面关于在阿曼与美国举行 的核谈判取得"良好开端"并将持续推进的表态，本意是缓和局势， ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《楼市"开门红"，债市怎么看？》 - 2026.02.05 固收周报 债券的交易窗口还在 ——流动性周报 20260208 ⚫ 2 月债市还有交易窗口，选择可以 10 年为主 1.8%以下的 10 年期国债，实质是在透支降息交易预期空间。10 年国债临近 1.8%后，配置价值已经弱化；投资者普遍相信权益的调整 是暂时的；只有降息可以对债市形成实质性的利好，收益率若突破 1.8%之后持续下行，其原因必然是政策利率降息，开启新一轮广谱利 率的下行，债市在试图提前交易这种预期。 对于资金和短端利率，低波动已经成为常态，已经失去讨论的意 义。央行诉求的是稳定的资金利率，未来还将有"收窄利率走廊"来 约束。资金波动的缩小意味着短端波动的同步缩小，加上没有需求端 理财规模的明显变动，后续的资金和短端运行注定要在偏窄区间，也 不会做过多的所谓"预期定价"，已经失去了讨论的意义。 "持股过节"和"持债过节"可以同时存在吗？同时存在的情况 可能是两种：最好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the silver market, particularly the performance of the Guotou Silver LOF fund, have drawn attention due to significant price adjustments and investor concerns following international silver price declines [5][11]. Market Performance - On February 9, Guotou Silver LOF experienced a volatile trading session, initially hitting the daily limit down before rebounding to a peak increase of 8%, ultimately closing with a gain of 6.45% [7]. - International spot gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold rising over 1.5% to exceed $5040 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by over 4% to touch $81 per ounce [3][9]. - Domestic precious metal futures also saw significant gains, with platinum rising over 9% and Shanghai silver increasing over 8% [3]. Fund Valuation Adjustments - On February 2, Guotou Ruijin Fund announced a valuation adjustment for the Guotou Silver LOF due to a significant discrepancy between international silver prices and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures prices [5][11]. - The fund's valuation will now reference international market prices at 3 PM to better reflect asset values [11]. Investor Communication - In response to investor concerns, Guotou Ruijin Fund emphasized its commitment to prioritizing investor interests and has established a dedicated task force to address investor grievances through various resolution channels [6][11]. - The fund reassured investors of its capability to protect their legal rights amid the market's short-term volatility [6][11]. Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, some institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold and silver prices, citing factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and a return to rational valuation attracting bottom-fishing capital [6][11]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments do not indicate a trend reversal, and the long-term bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact [6][11].

近日，华尔街资深专家明确表态，美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什在今年将实施4至5次降息，直言当前市场普遍预期的2次降息存在明显误判。与此同时， 高盛最新研报给出关键佐证，称"愿意降息，是他能获得美联储主席这份工作的先决条件"，而大资金已提前行动，布局降息预期带来的市场机遇。 凯文·沃什拥有跨界履职经历，兼具华尔街、白宫与美联储背景，曾担任美联储理事、白宫国家经济委员会执行秘书，还曾在摩根士丹利并购部门任职， 深谙全球货币政策与市场动态。今年1月，特朗普正式提名沃什为下任美联储主席，该提名仍需参议院批准，而其货币政策倾向已成为市场关注的核心焦 点。 当前，市场主流预期认为，沃什今年仅会实施2次降息，每次下调25个基点，这一判断主要源于其过往对通胀的担忧，市场一度将其归为偏鹰派决策者。 但华尔街资深专家、前汇丰控股全球固定收益研究主管Steven Major反驳了这一观点，他表示，沃什能进入美联储主席提名名单，本身就意味着其倾向于 降息，"市场计入的2次降息预期过于保守，合理预期应为4至5次"。 在降息预期分歧之下，大资金已率先布局。从资金面来看，全球最大黄金ETF近期出现明显增仓，债券市场也有持续资金流入，机构投资者 ...

摘要今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 剧情并未止步于此。为了给高烧不退的市场降降温，全球最大的衍生品交易所——芝商所(CME)，在两 周内三次念起了"紧箍咒"：接连上调黄金和白银期货的保证金要求。这等于直接增加了投机者的"呼吸 成本"，通常会挤走一批玩家，导致市场暂时"缺氧"(流动性下降)，价格更容易坐上"过山车"。 然而，令人惊讶的一幕发生了：金价不仅没有因"缺氧"而萎靡，反而上演了一出漂亮的"韧性秀"，强势 反弹！这出人意料的表演，等于向市场宣告：在当前价位，有一股强大的"铁杆粉丝"(逢低买盘)在默默 守护。能够在交易所"紧箍咒"的考验下屹立不倒，本身就是黄金内在 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the intensified fluctuations in the commodity and equity markets, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, the weakening of macro - economic indicators indicates insufficient domestic demand, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for national debt futures. However, in the short - term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy mainly focuses on structural interest rate cuts, so the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is not strong, and the upward space for national debt futures is limited. Overall, national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The risk - aversion sentiment due to market fluctuations boosts the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for national debt futures. In the short - term, the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of national debt futures, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View - Precious metals rebounded after a significant shock, mainly influenced by the nomination of the Fed chair and fund stampede. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a traditional hawk, cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a rebound in the US dollar index. A large number of funds took profits. In the long run, the supporting factors for the upward movement of gold have not reversed. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 decreased by 1.48% and 1.41% respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 decreased by 7.93% and 7.19% respectively compared with the previous day [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are 84,618 and 163,840 respectively, and the trading volumes are 126,031 and 494,742 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are 128,060 and 227,163 respectively, and the trading volumes are 597,736 and 1,291,544 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 1.23, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1.37. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 253, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 602 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.30%, and the closing price of London Gold increased by 3.98%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D decreased by 8.49%, and the closing price of London Silver increased by 9.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 is 2.60, and the current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 855.00. The current value of the gold - silver ratio (spot) is 59.98, the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 0.98, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.05 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms, and the inventory of silver decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 121,403 ounces to 35,370,105 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 3,498,075 ounces to 394,511,408 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2 tons to 1,076 tons, and the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2] Macro Information - **Political News**: The scandal of Peter Mandelson's appointment as the British Ambassador to Washington has put pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. His chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, and there are speculations about Starmer's possible resignation. In the Japanese House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats [3] - **Market Trends**: The yen continued its recent decline in the Asian trading session on Monday. The market is concerned about the design and communication of fiscal policies. The US Treasury Secretary believes that gold is in a typical speculative selling market and does not expect the Fed to take rapid action on the balance - sheet issue [3]