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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250619
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:35
有色金属日报 2025-6-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号:F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号:F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号:F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号:F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号:F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 地缘局势边际恶化,美联储议息会议表态偏鹰,铜价震荡下滑,昨日伦铜收跌 0.2%至 9650 美元/吨, 沪铜主力合约收至 78610 元/吨。产业层面,昨日 LME 库存减少 200 至 107350 吨,注册仓单量维持 低位,注销仓单比例下滑至 49.3%,Cash/3M 升水 106 美元/吨。国内方面,昨 ...
宝城期货铜铝日内上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 13:39
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名:何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F03090813 投资咨询证号:Z0019840 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 核心观点 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 沪铜 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 今日沪铜增仓上行,主力期价逼近 7.9 万关口。本周市场消化中 东局势消息,风险偏好回升,金价持续回落,今日白银再创新高。 产业层面,国内处于供需双强,电解铜社库淡季去化放缓。宏观氛 围回暖或持续推升铜价,关注 7.9 万一线多空博弈。 铜铝日内上行 沪铝 今日铝价整体呈现增仓上行趋势,主力期价拉升至 2.07 万关口。 本周市场消化中东局势消息,风险偏好回升。产业层面,国内需求较 好,电解铝库存持续去化。随着期价上行,下游需求或受 ...
今夜 不平静 全球震荡
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-13 16:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, which has shaken global markets and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][3]. - Following the attack, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points at one point, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell approximately 0.4% [2]. - Oil prices saw substantial volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surging over 10% before retreating more than half of that gain, indicating heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical events [3]. Group 2 - The attack has led to a surge in safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which remains near historical highs, reflecting investor caution amid rising geopolitical risks [5][7]. - Energy and defense stocks have risen, while airline and tourism companies faced declines, showcasing a shift in market sentiment towards sectors perceived as safer during geopolitical turmoil [3]. - The timing of the attack disrupted a previously favorable risk appetite in the market, as recent U.S. inflation indicators had shown improvement and trade negotiations with China were progressing [7]. Group 3 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that the U.S. was aware of the attack beforehand and emphasized the goal of destroying Iran's ballistic missile production capabilities, which currently stands at 300 missiles per month [8][9]. - Former President Trump stated that Iran officials have expressed interest in negotiating a nuclear deal, suggesting that the attack may not preclude diplomatic discussions [10][11]. - Trump also remarked that the attack could be beneficial for the market, as it implies that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons, which he believes would be a positive outcome for market stability [12].
中信期货晨报:黑色系表现弱势,金、油相对偏强-20250613
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 06:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].
汇丰2025年下半年展望:风险偏好回归 AI乐观情绪及疲弱美元或成关键催化剂
智通财经网· 2025-06-12 07:19
Group 1 - HSBC has a positive outlook for the second half of 2025, noting a rebound in trading activity in the US market despite some signs of demand being pulled forward [1] - The bank suggests an overweight position in equities, high-yield bonds, and emerging market bonds, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and a weaker dollar [1] - Historical data indicates that during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, risk assets tend to rebound rather than decline further [1] Group 2 - Market confidence in the US government's tax reduction agenda is waning, with potential agreements in the summer serving as a short-term catalyst for risk asset increases, provided long-term yields do not rise sharply [2] - Downside risks include a rising unemployment rate and US Treasury yields approaching a "danger zone" of 4.7%, which could trigger widespread selling of risk assets [2] - HSBC plans to slightly overweight equities and increase positions during market pullbacks, particularly in US stocks, while maintaining an overweight in emerging markets and high-yield credit [2]
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-06-12 02:24
Group 1 - The market experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday but managed to recover on Wednesday, indicating strong resilience despite concerns over external negative news [1] - The index showed hesitation in breaking through the 3400-point level, leading to continued consolidation and a lack of sustained trading volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw upward movement driven by positive news expectations, while previously leading sectors like bioproducts, communication services, and port shipping experienced pullbacks, indicating a "short and quick" rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests continued mild consolidation, with attention on upcoming monthly macroeconomic data and trading volume changes [1] - According to technical analysis principles, a sustained increase in trading volume is necessary for the market to choose a direction [1]
研究所晨会观点精萃:美国5月通胀数据全面低于预期,美元走弱-20250612
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:28
从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-68751490 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-68756925 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758786 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-58731316 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号:F0314 ...
全球资产配置资金流向月报(2025年5月):5月欧洲股债流入明显,中国股债出现“跷跷板”效应-20250606
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-06 08:12
Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 6 月 5 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 地缘政治和贸易政策均升温,金 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 价冲高回落,上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 上游强势,下游弱势,镍触底回升 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:观望 核心逻辑:昨夜美 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250605
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 00:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].