人民财讯12月11日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，利率处于合理中性水平估计的区间内，货币政策并未设 定固定路径，美联储将逐次会议作出决策。 ...

Betting markets and brokerages have projected a third interest rate cut this year from the Fed.The Federal Reserve on Wednesday opted to cut interest rates, the third-straight vote in favor of a reduction, as Wall Street anticipated a cautious approach to monetary policy from the central bank next year.The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 in favor of lowering interest rates by a quarter-point to between 3.5% and 3.75%, down from the 3.75% and 4% range the central bank approved during the FOMC’s Octob ...

12月11日，美联储以9-3的投票比例将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，为连续第三次会议降息。政策声明删除了对失业率"较低"的描述。最新点阵图 维持2026年降息25个基点的预测。 另外，美联储将于12月12日开始的30天内购买400亿美元国库券，以维持充足的准备金供应。 利率决议全文 可用的数据表明，经济活动正以温和的步伐扩张。今年以来就业增长放缓，失业率截至9月有所上升。更近期的指标与上述情况一致。通胀较年初有所上 升，仍处于偏高水平。 委员会的长期目标是实现最大就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位。委员会密切关注其双重使命两端的风险，并认为近数月就业方面的 下行风险有所上升。 在评估适当的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监测最新信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备适时调整货币政策 立场。委员会的判断将考虑广泛的信息，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力与通胀预期，以及金融与国际形势的发展。 委员会认为，准备金余额已下降至充足水平，并将按需启动购买短期美国国债，以在持续基础上维持充足的准备金供应。 投票支持此次货币政策行动的有：主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Je ...

A  Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie lowered its key interest rate Wednesday, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions.Fulfilling expectations of a "hawkish cut," the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee cut its key overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, putting it in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.However, the move carried caution flags about where policy is headed from here and featured "no" votes from three members, which hasn't happened since ...

The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, lowering the range on its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third straight quarter point reduction and brings short-term borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated," said the Fed in its policy statement. "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices have plummeted to a four-year low, with a significant drop of over 0.6 yuan per liter in just one year, reflecting broader economic implications and consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil is priced at $58.23 per barrel, down 1.10%, while Brent crude oil has fallen to $61.91 per barrel [1] - The current price levels indicate a return to the lows seen four years ago, impacting consumer budgets and overall economic sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand, characterized by a "supply glut" due to increased production signals from Iraq, which is pressuring prices downward [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's policies, contribute to market volatility and risk premiums [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly affect the strength of the dollar and global economic expectations, which in turn influence oil prices [4] - The next adjustment window for domestic oil prices is on December 22, with a current oil change rate of -0.89%, suggesting a potential price reduction of 40 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - There is a shift in consumer psychology from passive acceptance of rising prices to a more proactive wait-and-see approach regarding potential further declines in oil prices [4] - The emotional response to falling oil prices is mixed, with consumers feeling both relief and concern about the underlying economic implications of sustained low prices [6][7]

作者：龙玥 来源：华尔街见闻 美联储下一任主席的遴选正进入终局。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特目前处于领先位置，但特朗 普决定启动最后一轮面试，表明最终人选远未「板上钉钉」。 今日，据英国《金融时报》援引三名美国政府高级官员透露，特朗普与财政部长贝森特计划于本周三会 见前美联储理事沃什。此举标志着为寻找现任主席鲍威尔继任者的最后一轮面试正式拉开帷幕。 这一最新进展表明，哈塞特的提名并非十拿九稳。除哈塞特和沃什外，最终候选人名单还包括另外两名 来自美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼以及贝莱德高管里克·里德等人中的入围者。最终决定预计将在明年 1 月初 宣布。 这一人事变动的核心影响在于未来的货币政策走向。部分华尔街投资者已表达担忧，认为与总统关系密 切的哈塞特可能会过于激进地降息，从而给市场带来潜在风险。 哈塞特领先，但任期或存变数 贝森特仍有可能接管美联储 财政部长贝森特在此次遴选中扮演着关键角色。据官员称，他向白宫提交了一份包含四人姓名的名单， 哈塞特和沃什均在其中。尽管特朗普曾多次公开表示希望贝森特担任美联储主席，但贝森特本人已表态 无意此职。 然而，若哈塞特的任期缩短，则可能为贝森特在特朗普第二个任期的晚些时候接掌 ...

北京时间周四凌晨，美联储预计将再次降息，但这很可能是近期最后一次降息行动。持续的通胀担忧正 在联储内部引发深度分歧，这将阻止美联储主席鲍威尔释放明年初进一步降息的信号。 通胀持续高于目标，再加上关键经济数据的缺失，进一步加大了鲍威尔凝聚共识的难度。由于政府停摆 贯穿整个10月和11月大部分时间，11月劳动力市场数据要到12月16日才会发布，通胀数据则将在两天后 公布。分析人士指出，经济数据的矛盾信号让美联储处于必须"走钢丝"的位置。 11月裁员数量有所下降，但亚马逊和威瑞森等大型美国公司宣布了裁员计划。9月消费者支出基本持 平，而美联储首选的通胀指标升至2.8%，较2%目标高出近1个百分点。 KPMG首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示："这让美联储处于必须走钢丝的位置。"她指出，鲍威尔无法在 记者会上保证下一步行动，"他必须代表各种观点，这些观点从一个极端到另一个极端，这是一个更难 传达的信息。" 分析师预计，部分政策制定者还将在声明中表达对未来几个月额外利率调整可能性的不确定性。Swonk 表示： "我的感觉是他们将暂停并等待更多数据，因为他们已经向系统中注入了一些降息。" 本次会议关注焦点将迅速转向2 ...

德国10年期公债收益率周三创下数月新高，交易员的定价排除欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性，聚焦于稍 晚的关键美联储会议。 意大利10年期公债收益率也上升4个基点，达到3.59%。 交易员也在减少对其他全球央行进一步宽松的押注，但最重要的央行--美联储是个例外。市场预计美联 储将在周三稍晚降息25个基点，并认为明年可能还会有两次降息。 如果美联储周三会议不降息，将令市场大跌眼镜，但未来前景更令人怀疑，交易商将急于消化决策者的 经济和利率预测。 回到欧洲，虽然法国公债收益率与德国同步上涨，但涨幅略小，法国和德国10年期公债收益率差距为71 个基点，约为8月以来最低。 此举提振了市场情绪，周二，法国议会以微弱优势通过了2026年社会保障预算，为法国总理勒科尔尼 （Sebastien Lecornu）赢得关键性的胜利，但也付出了巨大的政治和财政代价，这仍可能威胁到他脆弱 的政府。 法国10年期公债收益率上升4个基点至3.60%，也接近3月以来高点。 德国10年期公债收益率略升4个基点至2.89%，上次触及该水平是在3月德国大幅增加借贷和政府支出之 后。 近几个月来，欧元区指标收益率基本处于区间波动状态，但周一欧洲央行颇具影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy has shown resilience against uncertainty and trade tensions, which is "stronger than expected" [1] - Lagarde indicated that the ECB may raise its economic growth forecasts in the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Position - Lagarde reaffirmed that the current monetary policy is in a "favorable position" or "good position," suggesting that interest rate policies will remain unchanged in the short term [1] - This statement has been widely interpreted by the market as a clear signal that the ECB has no plans to adjust the benchmark interest rate at this time [1] Group 2: Shift in Policy Focus - The ECB's policy focus is subtly shifting from combating inflation to assessing the ongoing resilience of the economy [1] - Analysts suggest that this indicates a potentially more hawkish stance from the ECB than previously anticipated by the market [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market attention is now directed towards the December meeting, where the ECB will release its latest macroeconomic forecasts [1] - The extent of the upward revision in economic growth forecasts will directly influence market judgments regarding the timing of the ECB's first interest rate cut [1]