【#资金大量流向黄金避险##欧美将公布重要数据#反映关税战对企业冲击】上周，市场仍聚焦美国 就"对等关税"与各方的谈判进程，依赖海外市场的科技巨头上周延续下跌势头，拖累主要股指。此外， 美国总统特朗普多次喊话美联储尽快降息，市场担忧美联储货币政策独立性受到干扰，引发了部分资金 继续撤离美股和美债等资产。美国三大股指上周集体下跌。其中道指下跌2.66%，标普500指数下跌 1.50%，纳指下跌2.62%。 特斯拉、谷歌等多行业巨头本周将发布最新财报 国际金价再创收盘历史新高 上周累计涨超2% 贵金属市场方面，由于投资者继续减持美股、美债、美元，资金大量流向黄金避险，推动国际金价上 涨，上周三纽约商品交易所6月黄金期价再创收盘历史新高，首次收于每盎司3300美元关口上方。国际 金价上周累计涨幅为2.58%。 欧美将公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值 将反映关税战对企业的冲击 数据方面，本周三，美国、欧元区和英国将分别公布4月制造业与服务业PMI初值。美国制造业PMI中 的投入价格指数尤其值得关注，它被标普全球称为衡量关税通胀压力的"第一站"。3月这项指标一度升 至两年来的最高水平，反映美国企业的成本压力加剧。分析人 ...

点击图片▲立即试听 " 我们手中的牌并不多，楼市是其中必须打好的、最重要的一张。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 所有宏大的叙事，最终都会落到一个家庭的起居之间。 2025 年春天，中美贸易摩擦不断加码，中国出口压力与日俱增，从沿海工厂到内陆中小企业，不少人开始重新计算接下来的账本：订单缩水、利 润承压，甚至员工的稳定性也打起了问号。 然而，亮眼成绩单的第二页，一个熟悉的身影却明显掉队了 —— 一季度，我国房地产开发投资同比下降 9.9% 。 这个曾经以一己之力拉动中国经济的 " 大主角 " ，如今似乎正在逐渐淡出聚光灯：不仅在新闻稿标题中失去了位置，甚至在分析师讨论时也被匆 匆带过。 宏观经济的温度计，正在测量每一个家庭最重要的决策之一 —— 买不买房，换不换房？ —— 吴晓波 楼市退场？没那么简单 近日，国家统计局公布了 2025 年第一季度宏观经济的 " 成绩单 " 。在中美贸易摩擦愈演愈烈、全球供应链重新洗牌的紧张氛围下，市场的目光 集中投向了 " 出口 " 和 " 消费 " 这两大被寄予厚望的动能引擎，而它们也的确未让人失望： 一季度，中国出口同比增长 6.9% ，社会消费品零售总额同 ...

Group 1: Humanoid Robot Marathon Insights - The first humanoid robot half marathon in Beijing revealed significant performance issues, including battery life, joint durability, and AI decision-making capabilities [1][2] - The event highlighted the need for advancements in battery technology, component strength, and AI training to enhance robot functionality [2] - Despite the challenges faced, the competition serves as a learning opportunity for the robotics industry, indicating that addressing these core issues could lead to future breakthroughs [2] Group 2: Tariff War and Market Opportunities - The tariff war is fundamentally a technology conflict, impacting sectors like semiconductors and prompting domestic industries to innovate [7] - Structural opportunities in the market are identified in four key areas: industrial upgrading, domestic consumption, foreign trade restructuring, and RMB internationalization [6][11] - The focus on domestic consumption is driven by the need to stabilize the economy amidst external demand fluctuations, with particular attention to emerging markets and health-related consumption [8][9] Group 3: Strategic Directions for Investment - Investment strategies should prioritize sectors that can adapt to the challenges posed by the tariff war, including technology breakthroughs and ecological restructuring [11] - The RMB's role as a settlement and pricing currency is crucial for countering dollar dominance, with potential growth in cross-border payment and digital currency sectors [10] - Short-term policy catalysts, such as equipment upgrades and consumer incentives, are essential for driving market resilience and long-term growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The tariff war initiated by Trump has become a significant political burden for the Republican Party, with many members secretly opposing the tariffs but hesitant to publicly criticize the president [1][5][10]. Group 1: Republican Concerns - Republican strategists express that many members are reluctant to oppose Trump openly due to the political costs involved, hoping instead for the Supreme Court to intervene and uphold the constitutional authority of Congress over taxation [5][10]. - Polls indicate that the tariff policy is unpopular, and its prolonged existence could jeopardize the re-election prospects of these members [5][10]. - Concerns are widespread among Republican senators about the potential for Trump's tariff policies to become permanent, which could lead to significant political ramifications in the upcoming midterm elections [10][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Senator Ron Johnson describes tariffs as a "blunt instrument" that harms both the economy and consumers, questioning the true purpose of the tariff war [7][8]. - The fear of economic recession due to the tariffs is causing anxiety among Republican members regarding their electoral futures, with some drawing parallels to the 1982 midterm elections when the party lost numerous seats due to economic issues [12][10]. Group 3: Legislative Actions - A group of seven Republican senators is advocating for legislation that would require congressional approval for tariff policies, countering Trump's desire for unilateral presidential authority [14][16]. - Prominent Republican figures, including Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, have publicly criticized the tariff policies, emphasizing the need for Congress to reclaim its constitutional power over trade and tariffs [16][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and adaptability of Guangdong's prepared food industry in the face of global trade challenges, particularly the tariff war initiated by the U.S., showcasing how local products like Magang goose are successfully entering international markets through innovative strategies and collaborations [4][15][30]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 9th China International Food and Ingredients Expo, the 3rd China International Prepared Food Industry Expo, and the 14th Guangdong Modern Agriculture Expo were held in Dongguan from April 18 to 20, attracting global buyers [1]. - The event featured a significant focus on the prepared food industry, which is seen as a key player in reshaping the global food landscape amidst trade tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Magang Goose's Success - Magang goose, recognized as one of Guangdong's top products, secured major contracts worth 80 million RMB with markets in Hong Kong, Macau, and Indonesia, highlighting its appeal and quality [6][5]. - The success of Magang goose is attributed to a new paradigm for Guangdong's agricultural exports, which emphasizes cultural connections, standardized production, and innovative overseas partnerships [6][7]. Group 3: Prepared Food Industry Growth - China's prepared food market is projected to grow from 200 billion RMB in 2019 to 600 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, making it a significant growth engine globally [17]. - In 2024, China's prepared food exports reached 173.2 billion RMB, accounting for 27% of total agricultural exports, indicating substantial market potential [17]. Group 4: International Market Strategies - The article discusses the importance of strategic international partnerships and market positioning for Chinese prepared food companies, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which are seen as ideal markets for expansion [22][24]. - The concept of "shared factory" models is introduced, where Chinese food companies collaborate with local partners to leverage resources and distribution channels, enhancing competitiveness in foreign markets [26]. Group 5: Financial Support and Infrastructure - Financial institutions, such as the Agricultural Bank of China in Dongguan, are providing significant support through inclusive loans, facilitating quick access to capital for food enterprises [28]. - The establishment of overseas warehouses and international cooperation agreements during the expos indicates a proactive approach to building infrastructure for global trade [19].

每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...

据央视新闻4月19日报道，当地时间4月18日，美国哥伦比亚广播公司报道称，多名消息人士透露， 由于特朗普政府对中国商品加征的畸高关税将 导致供应链危机，特朗普政府内部已开始讨论组建一个工作组，以便在未能与中国政府谈判取得突破的情况下紧急处理这些问题。 消息人士称，目前有关成立该小组的具体情况还未敲定任何细节，但工作组可能包括副总统万斯、财政部长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克、白宫国家 经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔。 01 美方对华轮番加征畸高关税 美国总统特朗普本月2日在白宫签署行政令，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》，宣布美国进入紧急状态，对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"。 来源：每日经济新闻 编辑 | 程鹏 杜波 34%、125%、245%……连日来，美国政府滥用关税手段，对包括中国在内的全球贸易伙伴征收额外所谓"对等关税"，结果不仅造成全球市 场"鸡飞狗跳"，美国自己也出现了民众哄抢鸡蛋、企业原料缺货、海关系统"宕机"等诸多混乱。 美东时间8日，美方将此前宣布的对中国输美产品加征34%所谓"对等关税"，进一步提高50%至84%。 美东时间10日时，美方 ...

来源：凤凰网财经《封面》 近日，一位中国学者霸气回应外媒提问的视频引爆全网。 当记者提到 " 中国将失去美国市场 " ，及美副总统万斯的 " 中国乡巴佬 " 言论时，国际问题学者、全球化智库副主任高志凯称：没有美国，中国也过了 五千年。美国必须正视中国、尊重中国。 在凤凰网财经《封面》专访中，高志凯犀利拆解西方叙事陷阱，揭露美国 " 关税战 " 伪逻辑，更向全球国家喊话： " 美国不是在与中国为敌，是在与中 国代表的全世界自由贸易人民为敌。" 以下为专访实录节选： 高志凯： 技术细节要讨论，但那个场合不合适讨论。另外一个中美之间有各种各样的问题要解决，也不是在那个场合（解决）。在那个场合我觉得最关 键就是说（体现）中国信心，中国信心的原因在哪里？我们的基础在哪里？这就是我们上 5000 年什么事没有见过？什么敌人没有对付过、什么危机没有 克服过等等，我们都经历过。 凤凰网财经《封面》： 您近期接受外媒采访时，用 " 中国五千年文明史 " 回应 " 被美国孤立 " 的质疑，能否还原当时的对话细节？ 所以美国只是我们 5000 年连续不断地历史中的一个小角色，是一个插曲，甚至可以是可有可无的插曲。不是说是一个霸主 ...

Group 1 - China has significantly reduced its oil imports from the US by 90%, opting instead for unprecedented levels of crude oil imports from Canada, with imports from Vancouver reaching 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The volume of oil imported from the US has dropped from a peak of 29 million barrels in June of the previous year to just 3 million barrels per month [1] - This shift indicates a strategic move by China to distance itself from US markets, as it also reduces imports of other commodities such as agricultural products and natural gas [1] Group 2 - The unexpected increase in oil imports from Canada comes despite Canada's previous actions against China, including imposing 100% tariffs on electric vehicles and following US provocations in political and military spheres [2] - China's large-scale purchase of Canadian oil can be interpreted as support for Canada in its resistance against US tariffs, highlighting a rare alignment between the two nations against a common adversary [2][5] - The relationship between Canada and the US has historically been one of dependency, with Canada relying heavily on the US for trade and security, making it difficult for Canada to assert its independence [3] Group 3 - The US's imposition of high tariffs on Canadian goods, including oil, aims to undermine Canada's economy and force it into submission, which has prompted Canada to retaliate [5] - China's import of Canadian oil serves as a lifeline for Canada, allowing it to mitigate the impact of US sanctions and maintain its economic sovereignty [5] - This situation illustrates a broader geopolitical dynamic where countries affected by US policies seek alternative partnerships to bolster their economic resilience [5]

这并非PS5首次涨价。2022年和2024年，PS5也曾在部分地区提高售价。但是，此次涨价发生在美国总 统特朗普掀起的"关税战"浪潮中，受到市场普遍关注。 4月初以来，美国肆意加征所谓"对等关税"扰动全球市场。日本一些依赖硬件业务的游戏机制造商不可 避免地受到波及。 近日，游戏主机PlayStation 5（以下简称"PS5"）在部分地区提高价格，任天堂则推迟了新款主机Switch 2在美国的预购。 分析人士表示，游戏机制造商将产业链转移到美国的可能性微乎其微，其不仅要面对高昂投资、劳动力 成本飙升和供应链重构的难题，还要应对知识产权泄露的风险。 Switch 2在美预购推迟 4月13日，索尼方面宣布，提高PS5的价格。此次涨价涉及英国、欧洲、澳大利亚和新西兰等市场，涨 价措施在4月14日生效。 涨价后，PS5数字版欧洲地区的售价为499.99欧元，上涨50欧元，涨幅超11%。 "在高通胀和汇率波动等充满挑战的经济环境下，索尼互动娱乐做出了艰难的决定。"索尼方面并未在公 告中指明涨价的具体原因。 投大大数据研究院分析师胡怡文对《中国经营报》记者表示，在"关税战"风波中，日本受挫最重的产业 是汽车制造业。 4月 ...