1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has experienced three consecutive days of decline, raising concerns about potential larger downturns ahead [2] - Strong economic data, including a significant drop in initial jobless claims and an unexpected GDP revision to 3.8%, has weakened the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [2] - The narrative surrounding AI is facing skepticism, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of 1999-2000, where rapid funding and capital expenditure could lead to a market correction [2] Group 2 - The upcoming communication strategy of the Federal Reserve will determine whether the current market adjustment is a minor fluctuation or a major rebalancing [3] - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: October Outlook" suggests that October will be a critical test for market perceptions regarding the U.S. dollar, A-shares, and gold [3] - The report indicates that many positive news items have already been priced into the market, raising the risk of a significant market adjustment [3] Group 3 - Analysis of the Chinese market's second half indicates potential shifts in A-share dynamics, with specific attention to the trading days of September 18, 23, and 24 [4] - A Goldman Sachs report reveals insights into the beneficiaries of the "China AI boom," suggesting potential investment opportunities [5] - The report discusses the future trajectory of the Chinese yuan and highlights a key figure favored by the People's Bank of China [6]

Core Viewpoint - Large asset management institutions are shifting their focus back to the U.S. market, abandoning previous strategies of moving towards other markets, as they aim to boost year-end performance amid expectations of interest rate cuts and the influence of AI on market forecasts [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Following the announcement of high tariffs by President Trump on April 2, global fund managers sold U.S. stocks at a record pace, but the market has since recovered, with U.S. stocks rising by 7% in the past quarter [1] - The dominance of Wall Street has returned, with traders pricing in a 110 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are likely to continue favoring U.S. assets in the next quarter, driven by the positive outlook on the economy and stock market targets being raised by analysts due to AI advancements [1] - Salman Ahmed, head of global macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, expresses a neutral stance on European and Japanese markets while remaining optimistic about small-cap stocks that typically benefit from interest rate cuts [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-25 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较上 一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20690元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至10元/吨；佛山A00 铝价录20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-24日沪铝主力合约开于20685元/吨，收于20705元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，最 高价达20740元/吨，最低价达到20625元/吨。全天交易日成交107916手，全天交易日持仓221314手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存67736 吨，较上一交易日变化-1224吨，LME铝库存517150吨，较上一交易日变化3300吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2950元/吨，山东价格录得2910元/吨，河南价格录得 2990元/吨，广西价格录得3160元/吨，贵州价格录得3 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming weekly initial jobless claims data will reveal the latest dynamics in the employment market, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and impacting the dollar and gold prices [1] - If the jobless claims data is strong, it may strengthen the Fed's position, pushing the dollar and yields higher while suppressing gold prices; conversely, weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, supporting a rebound in gold [1] - Market focus is on two key U.S. economic data releases later this week, which will provide further clues on the Fed's policy path and directly affect gold trends [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, the dollar index rose significantly, negatively impacting gold prices; gold initially rose to $3,779.2 but then fell sharply to $3,717.4 before rebounding to close at $3,735.8, indicating a bearish trend [3] - The 4-hour analysis shows gold fluctuating around $3,740, with indicators suggesting a downward trend; the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are declining, and the MACD indicator shows increasing bearish momentum [3] - Trading recommendations suggest short positions around $3,755-$3,758 with a stop loss at $3,763 and a target profit range of $3,730-$3,720 [5]

当地时间周三，美股连续第二个交易日下跌，投资者仍等待本周晚些时候发布的关键经济数据。 中国资产集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数盘中大涨3.74%，热门中概股普涨。 今晚，美联储多位官员将发表讲话，美国将公布一系列财经数据。 中国资产大涨 截至收盘，道指跌171.50点，跌幅0.37%，报46121.28点；纳指跌0.34%，报22497.86点；标普500指数跌0.28%，报 6637.97点。 中国资产集体大涨，盘中，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨3.74%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF暴涨超6%，三倍做多富 时中国ETF大涨超4%，中国海外互联网ETF涨超3%，中国科技ETF涨超2%。截至收盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 2.83%。 阿里巴巴盘中暴涨超10%，创2021年10月以来的最高水平。截至收盘涨8.19%，京东和百度均涨逾5%。 美联储10月降息预期升温 昨夜今晨，金价持续回落，现货黄金一度跌破3720美元/盎司，日内跌1.17%；纽约期金一度跌破3750美元/盎司，日内 跌1.72%。 国际油价升至7周新高，美国原油库存回落提振市场信心。WTI原油近月合约涨2.49%，报64.99美元/桶；布伦特原油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - **Silver**: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the upcoming U.S. economic data, which will provide guidance for the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices [2] - The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reflect the current employment market; strong data may lead to a hawkish stance from the Fed, putting downward pressure on gold prices, while weak data could support a rebound in gold [2] - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key inflation measure for the Fed; if it exceeds expectations, it may reinforce a cautious approach from Powell, potentially leading to a reassessment of interest rate cut expectations and further downward pressure on gold [2] Group 2 - Recent economic indicators present a mixed picture; the German business climate index has unexpectedly declined, indicating some weakness in the European economy, while U.S. new home sales have surged, suggesting strong domestic demand [3] - Despite signs of economic slowdown, the economy has not entered a recession, necessitating investor vigilance in monitoring data changes to assess potential adjustments in Fed policy during the October meeting [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis for gold T+D indicates resistance at 850-860 CNY/gram and support at 820-840 CNY/gram; a break above 850 CNY/gram could lead to a rise towards 860 CNY/gram, while falling below 800 CNY/gram may result in further declines [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic situation in the third quarter is complex, with a slowdown in economic growth, policy counter - cyclical adjustments, and structural interactions between the financial market and the macro - fundamentals. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday [12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - The lithium - carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [23]. - It is recommended that investors be cautious when participating in the industrial - silicon and poly - silicon markets during the National Day holiday [25]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. - The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the downward resistance is smaller than the upward resistance [28]. - The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [31]. - It is not recommended to short coal and coke in the black - commodity market. Arbitrage can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [33]. - It is recommended to try to go long on the silicon - iron 11 - contract at 5550 and the silicon - manganese 01 - contract at 5800 [35]. - The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. - The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. - The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to US economic data. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - **Bond**: The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - **Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday. London gold should pay attention to the support around 3700 and the resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43 [12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - **Aluminum & Alumina & Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - **MEG - Bottle - Chip**: The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - **PP**: The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. Building Materials - **Soda - Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - **Caustic - Soda**: The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. Others - **Pulp**: The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - **Log**: The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77].