Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to operate strongly in the short - term, with attention on the MA5 support and testing the upper 390,000 - yuan mark. The macro - situation involves the US non - farm payrolls in December being lower than expected, leading to market expectations of about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. In China, the December CPI hit a 34 - month high. Fundamentally, the domestic tin ore import supply is tight, processing fees are low, and refined tin production is expected to be limited. The demand side shows that downstream procurement is active, and inventory decline is better than expected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 376,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24,380 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is - 710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan/ton. LME 3 - month tin is at 45,560 US dollars/ton, up 1,810 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 50,635 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 786 lots, an increase of 1,693 lots. LME tin total inventory is 5,415 tons, up 10 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 6,333 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 368,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 370,680 yuan/ton, up 19,980 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,200 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 8,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,890 yuan/ton, up 11,790 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 0.1447 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, with the annual increase being the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. China's December CPI year - on - year increase hit a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by food prices, and the month - on - month increase was due to non - energy industrial consumer goods. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [3]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to threats of criminal prosecution from the U.S. Department of Justice, alongside rising demand for safe-haven assets driven by protests in Iran, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the potential prosecution should be viewed in the context of ongoing government pressure to influence interest rate decisions [1][4]. - Following Powell's comments, gold prices surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, while silver approached $85 per ounce [1][4]. - The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly [1][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Precious Metals - Protests in Iran have led to speculation about a potential regime change, increasing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven investments [1][5]. - Multiple favorable factors, including declining U.S. interest rates, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a decrease in trust in the dollar, have supported gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Fund managers expressed confidence in the long-term attractiveness of precious metals, opting not to significantly reduce their gold positions [1][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged nearly 6%, reaching a historical high of $84.6090 per ounce, with a 150% increase over the past year [2][6]. - The silver market is expected to face supply shortages through 2026, driven by strong investment demand and rising industrial needs [2][6]. - Concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting silver, platinum, and palladium are anticipated, with a report expected in January [2][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Recent U.S. employment data did not alter market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports non-yielding precious metals [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times in the latter half of the previous year, with the market pricing in at least two more cuts this year [3][6]. - Analysts noted that weak labor market data reinforces expectations for an earlier and more aggressive shift to rate cuts, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen significantly, and market sentiment remains optimistic Meanwhile, the tense international situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a general rise in the metal market, including a sharp increase in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Aluminum prices, both domestic and international, have also increased [3] - Technically, LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have reached new highs, with a strong technical pattern. SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Environment - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the tense international situation has raised risk - aversion sentiment, causing a general rise in the metal market [3] - The unclear situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improved prospects of Fed interest rate cuts have further boosted market optimism [4] Aluminum Market Data - Today, SHFE aluminum closed at 24,650, and the spot price was 24,340, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 310 points. This week, SHFE aluminum has risen significantly, with a spot discount of - 120 yuan, indicating oversupply and poor spot trading [3] - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the alumina inventory has increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased, while the LME inventory has decreased. The LME spot has turned to a premium of 8 US dollars, indicating a significant improvement in overseas spot demand [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate has risen, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices has slightly increased to 7.7, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [3] Technical Analysis - Today, WTI crude oil has fluctuated, while LME aluminum has risen sharply to a new high, trading around 3,168 US dollars. SHFE aluminum has also risen sharply to a new high, closing at 24,650, with a strong technical pattern [4] - SHFE aluminum has seen a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest, rising with increased positions, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment [4] Future Outlook - In the short term, aluminum prices are strong and may continue to rise. The future focus should be on the divergence between SHFE aluminum and SHFE copper fluctuations and the situation of spot demand [4]

Group 1 - Bill Ackman believes that the idea of the U.S. returning to a 2% inflation level is "nonsense," predicting that the Federal Reserve will adjust its inflation target to a range of 2.5% to 3% [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by December 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its expectations, no longer predicting a rate cut in 2026, and now anticipates a rate hike in the third quarter of 2027 [2] Group 2 - Barclays has postponed its rate cut expectations, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut in June and December, instead of March and June [3] - Ackman highlighted that the biggest threat to the Trump administration in the upcoming midterm elections is the issue of affordability for the public [3][4] - Ackman proposed a loan model that limits early repayment by borrowers, which could reduce interest rate risk for lenders [5] Group 3 - Ackman has submitted a proposal to Trump for establishing a retirement savings system similar to Australia's superannuation scheme, aimed at increasing savings and investment participation [6] - He emphasized that achieving broader market participation could prevent potential social unrest, stating that if this is not accomplished, capitalists may become targets [6] - Ackman commented on global issues, including U.S. support for protests in Iran and military actions in Venezuela, viewing these as strategic moves to control economic resources [7]

Group 1 - Precious metals prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold surpassing $4600 for the first time and accumulating a $280 increase in January. Spot silver reached $83.9 per ounce, exceeding previous highs and setting a new record, with a daily increase nearing 5% [1][2] - The rise in gold and silver prices is driven by heightened market risk aversion and increased capital inflow, indicating a potential continuation of the strong trend in the short term [1][2] - Platinum prices also surged on January 12, 2026, reaching between $2346.5 and $2397 per ounce, with daily gains of 3.13% to 4.37%, marking the highest levels since 2008 [1][5] Group 2 - Multiple factors are pushing gold and silver to new historical highs, including disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which strengthens expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable, with expectations that interest rates may eventually decline as the labor market cools, although no rate cuts are anticipated this month [3][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are tight, with industrial consumption and investor demand competing against a shortage of new mines, leading to expectations that silver prices could easily surpass $100 per ounce [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is on an upward trajectory, with resistance levels identified between $4664 and $4766, while support levels are at $4408 and the 20-day moving average at $4392 [4] - Silver's price volatility is part of a long-term bullish trend supported by strong demand and supply shortages, although it currently relies on a single support line at $74.83 [4] - The platinum market is experiencing strong bullish momentum, driven by tight global supply and increased demand from the hydrogen industry, with a short-term target price of $2400 to $2420 per ounce [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]

Employment Data - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 60,000 and down from a previous value of 64,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and revised down from 4.6%[2] - The service sector contributed significantly with 58,000 new jobs, while the production sector saw a decline of 21,000 jobs[2] Sector Analysis - The leisure and hospitality sector rebounded with 47,000 new jobs, influenced by the Christmas holiday, compared to a previous loss of 12,000[2] - The construction sector faced seasonal disruptions, resulting in a loss of 11,000 jobs in December, following a strong performance in November[2] - Government employment added 13,000 jobs in December, indicating a recovery from previous layoffs[2] Economic Outlook - The market is betting on a U.S. economic recovery, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January[2] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve showed a "twist-flatten" pattern, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising[2] - Risks include potential inflation from tariffs and weak retail data in the spring, which could hinder economic growth[2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historic high of $4601.38, driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, including the conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, as well as unrest in Venezuela and Iran [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold surged to a peak of $4601.38, marking a new historical high, while COMEX gold also surpassed the $4600 mark [1]. - The recent performance of gold includes a significant increase of $65.00, or 1.44%, from the previous close [2]. - Gold ETFs have followed the upward trend, with a reported increase of 1.96%, and a year-to-date gain of 5.15% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver reached a new high of $84.589, with a notable increase of 5.73% from the previous close [3]. - COMEX silver prices surged over 6%, pushing towards the $84 mark [2]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and threats regarding Iran, have acted as catalysts for the rise in precious metal prices [5]. - Recent U.S. employment data showed lower-than-expected job growth, reinforcing expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which benefits non-yielding assets like gold [5]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to potential legal actions from the U.S. Department of Justice have also contributed to market volatility and gold's appeal [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Holdings - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China adding 544 tons over the past decade, ranking second globally after Russia [6]. - The trend of central banks diversifying their asset portfolios with gold is expected to continue, supporting higher gold prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the gold bull market may extend into 2026, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]. - The potential for gold prices to reach $5000 per ounce and silver prices to range between $135 and $309 per ounce reflects a positive outlook for the precious metals sector [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to be strong, but the fluctuation may be intense due to factors such as low probability of Fed rate - cut in January and risk - control measures from exchanges. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand from central banks, institutions, and residents will drive the long - term upward shift of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - On January 9, 2026, London gold spot was at $4473.61/oz, London silver spot at $77.24/oz, COMEX gold at $4483.10/oz, and COMEX silver at $77.00/oz. The price of AU2602 was 1006.48 yuan/g, and AG2602 was 18757 yuan/kg. The price of AU (T + D) was 1003.45 yuan/g, and AG (T + D) was 18764 yuan/kg. Compared with January 8, the price increases were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The price difference and ratio data showed various changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.03 yuan/g on January 9, with a 23.7% change compared to January 8 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 9, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16308.47495 tons. The COMEX gold non - commercial long - position was 274435 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 46803 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long - position was 47384 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 18113 contracts. Compared with January 8, there were different percentage changes in these positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 9, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, with no change from January 8. SHFE silver inventory was 620262 kg, a 2.73% decrease. COMEX gold inventory was 36311918 troy ounces, a 0.21% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 439740503 troy ounces, a 0.62% decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Review - On January 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.68% to 1006.48 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.9% to 18731 yuan/kg [3]. 3.5 Factor Analysis - The lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December, along with downward revisions of October and November data, indicate a cooling US labor market. The intensifying protests in Iran, Trump's radical remarks on Greenland, and strong safe - haven demand have pushed up precious metal prices. The short - term prices are expected to be strong, but the Fed's low probability of rate - cut in January and exchange risk - control measures may lead to high volatility. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains [4].

专题：美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查！回应：因没满足特朗普喜好 美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储的施压力度。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月11日，知情官员透露称，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国 联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及 鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 鲍威尔随后发声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年夏天对美国国会所作证词，威胁对他提起刑事指控，司 法部已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。 鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。"（遭刑事指控威胁）只因美联储 基于对公共利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而非遵循总统的偏好。" 美联储享有较高独立性。自去年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此 提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。但美联储始终未能如其所愿积极降息，特朗普因而多次要求鲍威尔辞 职。 当前也正值美联储人事变动的关键节点，鲍威尔的任期将于今年5月结束。去年12月29日，特朗普曾表 示他将于今年1月宣布美联储主席的继任人选。不排除特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特将接任即将卸 任的鲍威尔。 美联储装修" ...