Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

2025年12月22日 周报 双焦：三轮提降落地，盘面超跌反弹 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场延续偏弱运行格局，第三轮提降50-55元/吨，预计下周 一执行。受重污染天气影响，部分焦企进一步限产，短期焦炭供应仍呈现收窄状态；下游钢厂检修居多，尚 未开始大范围补库，整体库存略有增长；市场成交仍偏冷清。 展望：整体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2127.45 | 2139.45 | -12 | -0.56% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 900.48 | 903.8 | -3. ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为72.05%，减1.11%；焦炭日均产量63.00万吨，减0.98万吨； 焦炭库存91.10万吨，增3.78万吨；炼焦煤总库存1036.29万 吨，减1.01万吨；焦煤可用天数12.4天，增0.18天。评：供应 端，产地部分前期换工作面的煤矿恢复生产，但随着完成年度 任务减产的煤矿继续增加，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭 产量小幅回落，中下游按需采购为主，上游煤矿累库放缓。整 体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回 升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加 大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 【短评-白银】美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示， 与古尔斯比观点一致，当前仍存在充足的降息空间。特朗普希 望美联储主席能够作出独立判断，特朗普助手们将在佛罗里达 讨论住房政策，预计很快将在新年宣布"重大"住房计划。 评：目前关于未来降息的分歧有所加强，但是对政府的各种刺 激政策的预期增加，提振风险偏好。降息预期对贵金属存在支 撑，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑。关注黄金波动 对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive on Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. The supply and demand of rebar both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products are under short - term pressure, and they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness for winter stockpiling is not strong this year, and large - scale replenishment may not occur. The macro - level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline, and the port inventory continued to increase while the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - The macro - sentiment fluctuations in the market have temporarily ended, and the atmosphere in the black chain index has clearly warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and the supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and the supply - contraction problem of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese - ore segment [9][10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [13][16]. - The glass market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term due to weak demand and limited production capacity contraction. The soda - ash market's rebound strength is limited, and short positions can be considered for timely layout [19][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Data**: The trading volume was 84,173 tons, a decrease of 8,030 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.568866 million lots, a decrease of 7,077 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3,170 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline, in line with off - season characteristics. The terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the price is under short - term pressure [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 3,269 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%). The daily registered warehouse receipts were 103,404 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.191178 million lots, an increase of 1,622 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Data**: The main - contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 780.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.32% (+ 2.50), and the open interest increased by 16,750 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open - interest was 920,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 64.63 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.65% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipments continued to increase, the daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, the port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Data**: On December 19th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.48% at 5,808 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.86% at 5,640 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends are affected by the black sector, manganese - ore cost, and ferrosilicon supply contraction. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and manganese - ore emergencies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.52% (+ 45). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,503 lots to 407,065 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 510 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 160 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 60,245 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 1.59% (+ 945). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,718 lots to 247,847 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.4 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 7,845 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Data**: The main glass contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.98% (- 21). The North China large - plate quotation was 1,030 yuan, unchanged; the Central China quotation was 1,080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, an increase of 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 26,289 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 28,730 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.42% (- 17). The Shahe heavy - soda quotation was 1,130 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (+ 0.57%), including 771,700 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory (a decrease of 18,800 tons) and 727,600 tons of light - soda ash inventory (an increase of 23,800 tons). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,996 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 8,502 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market's rebound strength is limited. Short positions can be considered for timely layout [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the coking coal and coke market lies in the divergence in coking coal production data, weak replenishment demand from coking enterprises, and the potential for further price cuts in coke. However, with the approaching winter storage, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downward space of the coking coal futures market may be limited. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the driving force for valuation repair may weaken, and end - users can consider selling hedging opportunities at low basis levels. The overall trend is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase [1][11]. - The price ranges are predicted as follows: JM2605 is expected to trade between 1050 - 1198, and J2605 is expected to trade between 1680 - 1768 [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal production data from Fenwei and Steel Union diverge. Steel Union data shows mine production increase and inventory accumulation, while Fenwei data shows production decrease and inventory accumulation. Coking enterprises are less enthusiastic about replenishing inventory due to expected price cuts, and the inventory structure of coking coal continues to deteriorate [1]. - The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal this week exceeded 1500 vehicles per day. The Australian coal price index was stable with a slight increase. The price difference between domestic and international coal is severely inverted, and the import window for seaborne coal is narrowing, so the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports may decline [1]. - The third - round price cut of coke has officially started. The current immediate coking profit is near the break - even point. After the third - round price cut, some coking enterprises are expected to face slight losses. The coking enterprise operating rate decreased slightly due to environmental protection restrictions, and the demand for coke shrank as blast furnace hot metal production decreased rapidly, leading to a marginal deterioration of the coke fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Market Positioning - The price range of JM2605 is predicted to be 1050 - 1198, and that of J2605 is predicted to be 1680 - 1768. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coking coal is 37.95%, with a historical percentile of 74.63%. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coke is 33.24%, with a historical percentile of 72.10% [9]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - In terms of coking coal supply, the operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 1.31 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily raw coal production increased by 2.91 tons. The average daily clean coal production of 314 coal washing plants decreased by 0.63 tons [9]. - In terms of coking coal inventory, the total sample inventory increased by 29.11 tons week - on - week. The inventory of 523 mine raw coal and 523 mine clean coal increased, while the inventory of 314 coal washing plant clean coal decreased [9]. - In terms of coke supply, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.11 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily coke production decreased by 0.98 tons [9]. - In terms of coke inventory, the total sample inventory decreased by 3.32 tons week - on - week. The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports decreased [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Indonesia plans to impose a 1 - 5% export tax on coal from 2026; relevant departments issued the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)"; the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to expand domestic demand and promote consumption; and market - related departments emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [20]. - **Negative Information**: Some steel products were included in the export license management scope; in November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, and the year - on - year decline of national fixed asset investment from January to November was 2.6% [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On Monday, pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of December 22. - On Tuesday, pay attention to the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index in the third quarter. - On Wednesday, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20. - The 19th session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from December 22 to 27 [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: From a technical analysis perspective, after getting support near 1000 points, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded rapidly driven by improved sentiment and basis repair. If there is no new driving force in the future, the JM05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1198. The coke trend still follows coking coal, and the J05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1680 - 1768 [25]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal strengthened, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The term structure remains in a deep C - shape, indicating an over - supplied industrial pattern [29]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded strongly. The prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi followed the increase, and the 05 basis shrank. Currently, the coking coal basis is moderately high. From the perspective of valuation repair, the rebound space of the coking coal futures market may be larger than that of coke. The spot price of coke has started the third - round price cut, and the futures market rebounded rapidly following coking coal. Currently, the coke futures market has a premium over the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt after the third - round price cut, and industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi increased following the futures market. With the upcoming third - round price cut of coke, the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink. As the iron ore spot price rebounded following the futures market, the profitability of downstream steel mills decreased slightly [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - This week, the minimum customs clearance at the 288 port was about 1491 vehicles, and the maximum was 1637 vehicles, with an average daily customs clearance of over 1500 vehicles. In terms of profit, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated following the futures market, and the long - term contract trade profit first decreased and then increased. Recently, the Australian coal price has been firm. Although the spot price of some domestic coking coal has rebounded following the futures market, the price difference between domestic and international coal is still inverted, and the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports is expected to decline [39][45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Side Projection - Limited by over - production checks and safety supervision, the production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. According to the seasonal forecast of the operating rate, the average weekly production of coking coal in December is expected to be around 948 - 950 tons. In terms of imports, based on the customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the shipping volume of seaborne coal, the average weekly net import volume of coking coal in December is estimated to be about 240 tons. Due to stricter environmental protection restrictions in some areas recently, the coke production capacity has declined marginally, and the weekly coke production in December is expected to remain at 768 - 770 tons [60][62]. 5.2 Demand - Side Projection - Based on the SMM maintenance data, the estimated daily hot metal production next week is 222.74 tons, and the hot metal production the week after next is expected to be 224.05 tons [65]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, explicit inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal and inventory changes in each week from Week 40, 2025, to Week 53, 2026 [67].

Report Information - Report Title: "Double Coking Coal and Coke: Bottom Rebound in the Futures Market, Pay Attention to Changes in Trading Logic" [1] - Researcher: Guo Chao [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rising "anti - involution" sentiment in the market, commodities with large previous declines have rebounded, and coking coal has a relatively obvious rebound. Although the auction failure rate of Shanxi coking coal has decreased and some coal types have shown signs of stabilization and rebound, it has not yet formed a general increase, and the downstream procurement intensity still needs to be observed. Considering the winter storage demand of coking and steel enterprises and the possible production reduction and maintenance of some coal mines at the end of the year, the supply - demand situation of coking coal may improve slightly in the later stage. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback. [5] - For coking coal, the decline in domestic prices has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen price increases. However, the overall supply is relatively loose due to high imports of Mongolian coal and insufficient domestic production reduction. It is expected that the procurement enthusiasm will improve next week, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [7] - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon, with a high probability of a fourth - round cut later. The production of coke has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The iron - making water production is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down. [8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Pay attention to changes in trading logic. The volatility is still large. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5] - **Options**: Wait and see [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The auction failure rate of coking coal in the production area has decreased, the decline has slowed down, and some coal mines have seen price increases, but there is no general increase. The Shanxi coal warehouse receipt is 1230 yuan/ton, the Mongolian 5 warehouse receipt is 1115 yuan/ton, and the Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipt is 1175 yuan/ton. [7] - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has rebounded slightly. It is expected that the coking coal production will decline seasonally in late December, but the reduction in domestic production will be supplemented by imported coal, and the overall supply is relatively loose. [7] - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. It is expected that the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port will remain high in December. [7] - **Demand**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment efforts of steel mills. [7] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased. The inventory of coal mines has risen, and the inventory at ports and terminals has increased significantly. Some coking and steel enterprises have slightly increased their procurement enthusiasm, but large - scale winter storage has not yet started. [7] - **Coke Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and some steel mills have proposed a third - round price cut. It is expected that the third - round price cut will be implemented soon, and there is a high probability of a fourth - round price cut later. [8] - **Supply**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and the coke enterprises have certain pressure in shipping. [8] - **Demand**: The iron - making water production has continued to decline. It is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment actions of steel mills. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory has decreased. The coke enterprises' shipping situation is poor, and the steel mills basically purchase on demand, with no obvious signs of winter storage. [8] - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions. [8] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Production and Inventory** - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The average daily production of raw coal is 192.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 478.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons. The average daily production of clean coal is 75.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 272.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 tons. [12] - **Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance** - The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. [7] - **Iron - Making Water Production** - The average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The decline is mainly due to the continuous impact of blast furnace maintenance last week and the production reduction of some steel mills in Hebei due to environmental protection restrictions. [17] - **Price and Basis** - The report provides price trends and basis data for domestic coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., including price indices, different coal types' prices, and basis differences between different contracts and regions. [20][28][30] - **Inter - month Spread** - The report provides inter - month spread data for coking coal and coke, including spreads between different contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [60][63]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 热轧卷板市场周报 炉料走高提供支撑 热卷期价止跌反弹 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3269（+37），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3290（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。291.91（-16.8），（同比-20.81）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需298.28（-13.69），（同比-11.06）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库+社库双降。总库存390.72（-6.37），（同比+81.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, equity index futures declined while TL rose; metals and energy sectors advanced, with platinum, palladium, coking coal and coke leading the gains [12][14]. - The rally of coking coal and coke may be a valuation recovery driven by fund flows amid news catalysts, following an oversold period. With the intensification of winter stockpiling, their fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, but potential pressure from high coking coal imports and unstable thermal coal prices should be noted [18][25]. - For iron ore, overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, demand weakened, and port stocks edged up while steel mill stocks fell, with weak restocking willingness [34][35]. - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive investigations against Chinese enterprises and indicates that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case [39][40]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange was approved as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promote the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IC dropped by 0.7%, IM dropped by 0.3%, TL rose by 0.2% [12]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were palladium (up 7.0% with a 39.8% month - on - month surge in open interest), coking coal (up 6.1% with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and coke (up 5.4% with a 23.4% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.1% with a 1.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), poly - silicon (down 2.6% with an 8.9% month - on - month slide in open interest), and No.2 soybean (down 1.4% with a 35.9% month - on - month shrinkage in open interest) [13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On December 18th, coking coal rose by 6.1% to 1,126.5 yuan/tonne; coke climbed by 5.4% to 1,603.5 yuan/tonne. The rally may be due to news catalysts and fund flows after an oversold period [18]. - Two factors raised market expectations of tighter coal supply: the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" and safety interviews with major coal - producing regions. However, the short - term impact on production and supply is limited. - Winter stockpiling has started. For coking coal, some coal varieties' cost - performance has become attractive, and mid - and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. For coke, steel mills' procurement intensity has slightly increased [22][23][24]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 18, iron ore rose 1.6% to 777.5 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with Australian shipments slightly growing, Brazilian shipments increasing significantly, and non - mainstream shipments weakening. Demand weakened as iron water output dropped, and steel mills' profitability and sinter powder consumption and inventory declined. Port stocks edged up, and steel mill stocks fell with weak restocking willingness [33][34][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive launch of FSR investigations against Chinese enterprises, which are targeted and discriminatory. China urges the EU to stop the unreasonable suppression and create a fair business environment. - China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case, and China is willing to resolve differences through dialogue [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promotes the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42].

当下，螺纹钢库存结构是比较健康的，现实供需矛盾也不大。因此，本轮价格下跌过程中，期货价格的 跌幅明显大于现货。螺纹钢主力2605合约对华东现货的贴水已经扩大至196元／吨，处于近3年高位。杭 州地区螺纹钢库存已经从11月下旬的95.7万吨下降至69.7万吨。螺纹钢期货前20席位净多和净空持仓的 差值也从11月下旬的-11.16万手变为2.27万手。 明年1月，市场可能逐步关注到冬储逻辑。虽然现在市场普遍预计2026年建材需求会继续下一个台阶， 贸易商冬储意愿偏差，但是螺纹钢2605合约价格已经接近电炉钢的谷电成本（3079元／吨），且盘面贴 水已经处于高位，具备一定冬储价值。因此，我们预计仍会有贸易商通过盘面或场外累购期权的方式进 行冬储。 12月5日以来，螺纹钢价格出现快速下跌，主力2605合约价格最低下探至3031元／吨，相比月初高点下 跌150元／吨，跌幅约为4.7%。对于后期走势，我们认为，利空充分发酵之后，螺纹钢价格有望在3000 元／吨附近逐步企稳。 近期大跌原因分析 近期，螺纹钢价格大幅下跌主要是因为需求走弱和成本支撑下移。12月是传统的建材需求淡季，螺纹钢 表观消费量从11月下旬的230.79 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: Jinxin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Analysis Core View - Coking coal price increase is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment and winter storage expectations [2] Driving Factors - Since December, environmental protection warnings in the north have led to coking enterprises' production restrictions of 20% - 35% [3] - Year - end coal mine maintenance, policy support, and winter storage replenishment expectations have boosted sentiment [3] - Relevant departments have released standards for the clean and efficient use of coal [3] Supply and Demand - Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and domestic high - quality production capacity is steadily increasing, with a loose supply pattern [4] - Real estate has dragged down steel demand, and the blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills is low, making it difficult for the rigid demand for coking coal to significantly recover [4] Market Rhythm - Winter storage may bring short - term pulses but is difficult to sustain; rapid price increases may trigger an increase in imported coal, suppressing the increase [4] Operation Suggestions - In the medium and long term, gradually lay out long positions on dips; in the short term, strictly control positions [4] Key Price Levels - On December 18, the highest price of the main contract was 1,136.5 yuan; 1,200 yuan is a strong resistance level, 1,050 yuan is a short - term support level, and 1,000 yuan has cost support [3] Group 3: A - share Market Analysis Market Performance - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend. The technology sector adjusted, and the banking sector supported the market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly up, while other indices generally rose and then fell [6] Technical Analysis - The 15 - minute cycle can be regarded as a consolidation of the previous day's afternoon rally. If the consolidation ends, there may be another rally [6] Operation Suggestions - High - sell on rallies tomorrow, but do not chase the rise [6] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis Market Trend - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of upward movement [8] Operation Suggestions - Try to go long [8] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply and Demand - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak [10][11] Technical Analysis - Adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy, selling high and buying low [10] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis Market Drivers - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has decreased this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [15] Technical Analysis - In the short term, regard it as an oscillating market [14][15] Group 7: Palm Oil Market Analysis Market Situation - As the palm oil - producing areas gradually enter the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December [16] Operation Suggestions - Seize short - selling opportunities [16] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis Market Outlook - With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and the elimination of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve [19] Market Judgment - An oscillating market is expected [19]