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棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:02
Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Tax Exemption in Malaysia**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff**: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil Tax**: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - **Pakistani Soybean Purchase**: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - **Brazilian Soybean Regulations**: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil**: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - **EU Oil Imports**: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - **Russian Sunflower Oil Tax**: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250827
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily arbitrage data report for futures varieties from Baocheng Futures on August 27, 2025, presenting detailed data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On August 26, 2025, the basis was - 105.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 97.4 yuan/ton on August 25 and previous trading days [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month were all 0.0 yuan/ton from August 20 to 26, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the basis data from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 11.95 yuan/ton on August 26 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP are provided. For example, the basis of rubber was - 935 yuan/ton on August 26 [8]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber is 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2401 yuan/ton on August 26 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month (10) to 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) to 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar is 36.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.01 on August 26 [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 177.0 yuan/ton on August 26 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper was 310 yuan/ton on August 26 [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: On August 26, 2025, the LME premium/discount of copper was (84.82), aluminum was 3.25, etc. [35]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.07, 7.92, 7.94, 8.45, 7.99, and 7.96 respectively on August 26, 2025 [35]. - **CIF and Domestic Spot Prices**: The CIF and domestic spot prices of these non - ferrous metals are given, along with the import profit and loss data on August 26, 2025 [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 86 on August 26 [39]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are given [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.59 on August 26 [51]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [53].
油脂油料早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:42
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Views - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons, and its soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 2.33 million tons [1]. - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, with a 3.26% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.40% increase in oil extraction rate [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's soybean export estimate for August is 8.9 million tons [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal export estimate for August is 2.13 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 25, 2025 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from August 20 - 26, 2025 are presented in a table [3].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250827
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural product market, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. It assesses the current market situation, important information, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each category [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the East China basis remained unchanged at 01 - 110. The downstream inventory days increased slightly by 0.16 days to 8.51 days. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.27 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.5283 million tons. The domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly last week, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the overall equivalent soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The US soybean production area is expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August overall, with rainfall forecast to recover in early September. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market has both strong supply and demand, and the提货 volume has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot market may start to reduce inventory in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and the exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to increase by 10.9% - 16.4%. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and it is expected to increase by 0.3% from August 1 - 20. In August, China's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushing volume are still high, and the commercial soybean oil inventory at the end of August is expected to increase by 8 - 100,000 tons. Due to China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed imports have decreased recently, and some areas have cancelled orders. It is expected that the rapeseed oil inventory at the end of August will decrease month - on - month. A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban on Monday, temporarily suspending a decision that required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft is expected to suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production remains at a neutral level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventory, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Before the inventories in the sales areas and producing areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from the demand in the sales areas, the oils and fats are expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 2.9169 million tons, down from 3.3179 million tons in the previous week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: From an international perspective, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there is an expected increase in production in the new season in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India. The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price in the future is low. Domestically, the import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot price of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 54%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still significantly higher than the same period last year and at a relatively high level in the same period [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: From a macro perspective, the "dovish" statement of the Fed Chairman on Friday is beneficial for the commodity market to rise. Fundamentally, although the current downstream market consumption is still average, considering the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the current low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement. The Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.06 yuan to 3.11 yuan/jin. The supply is stabilizing, the downstream digestion speed is normal, most traders have normal confidence in the future market, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream picking - up enthusiasm is normal. The egg price may rise in some areas and remain stable in others today [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. On one hand, the number of newly - laid hens is still increasing, and the proportion of small and medium - sized eggs continues to rise. On the other hand, the consumption postponement caused by supply pressure intensifies the cautious mentality. Only low prices or the start of consumption can break the negative cycle. Before the actual reduction of overall production capacity, the egg price should not be overly optimistic. From a capital game perspective, the current high position in the futures market and the high premium of the near - month contract have been partially corrected. Under the background of reduced selling pressure, it is not advisable to short aggressively. In the future, the strategy should be to reduce short positions or short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally fell. The average price in Henan dropped 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.05 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter increased, but there was some reluctance to sell at low prices. The pig price may be stable or fall today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current logic is to release pressure by reducing the weight under oversupply. The near - month contract is weakly affected by the spot market. On one hand, policies such as state purchases to support the market are increasing, which may continuously suppress the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, it is still uncertain whether the potential pressure on inventory in the third - quarter end after the increase in the fat - to - standard price difference can offset the increasing supply trend. The market should be viewed with a range - bound idea, and for unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after extreme sentiment provides trading space. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [22].
沥青早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 00:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on August 26 were 3523, 3392, 3548, 3449, and 3404 respectively, with daily changes of 11, 23, 3, 17, and 10, and weekly changes of 50, 70, 49, 72, and 62 [4]. - The trading volume on August 26 was 268305, with a daily increase of 10750 and a weekly increase of 7679; the open - interest was 394850, with a daily decrease of 16637 and a weekly decrease of 37043; the inventory was 29790, with a daily decrease of 1150 and a weekly decrease of 1350 [4]. Market Prices - The market prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China on August 26 were 3540, 3720, 3490, 3680, and 3880 respectively. The daily changes were 20, 0, 10, 30, and 0, and the weekly changes were - 40, - 10, - 30, 0, and 0 [4]. - The spot prices of Jingbo (Haiyun) and Luhai (Xinbohai) on August 26 were 3680 and 3680 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and 30, and weekly changes of 10 and 0 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis in Shandong, East China, and South China on August 26 were 17, 197, and - 33 respectively, with daily changes of 9, - 11, and - 1, and weekly changes of - 90, - 60, and - 80 [4]. - The calendar spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, 12 - 03, and consecutive first - consecutive second on August 26 were 9, - 153, 113, 45, and 26 respectively, with daily changes of - 13, 20, - 14, 7, and - 3, and weekly changes of - 8, 21, - 23, 10, and - 18 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 28 was - 1, and on August 18 was 69; the asphalt Marrow profit on July 28 was - 70, and on August 18 was - 5; the ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on July 28 was 448, and on August 18 was 503; the Marrow - type refinery comprehensive profit on July 28 was 711, and on August 18 was 764 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China on August 26 was - 119, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly increase of 7; the import profit from Singapore to South China on August 26 was - 1044, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 7 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on August 26 was 68.8, with a daily increase of 1.1 and a weekly increase of 3.0; the gasoline market price in Shandong on August 26 was 7627, with a daily increase of 9 and a weekly decrease of 54; the diesel market price in Shandong on August 26 was 6501, with a daily increase of 25 and a weekly decrease of 17; the residue oil market price in Shandong on August 26 was 3635, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4].
永安期货燃料油早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shengang), the near - month internal and external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the LU internal and external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume in July increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. US residue inventory increased slightly but was at the lowest level in the same period in history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still recovering, and the delivery volume of FU was still relatively large. Attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and LU internal and external prices oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be focused on. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 4.01, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 6.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.41, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 8.62, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.58, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.11, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 2.03. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 9.69, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 11.54, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.51, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.10, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.42, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.37. [3] - For Singapore fuel oil spot, from August 19 to August 25, 2025, FOB 380cst increased by 6.57, FOB VLSFO increased by 5.85, 380 basis decreased by 0.80, high - sulfur internal and external spread increased by 3.7, and low - sulfur internal and external spread remained unchanged. [4] Domestic FU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, FU 01 increased by 62, FU 05 increased by 42, FU 09 increased by 109, FU 01 - 05 increased by 20, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 67, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 47. [4] Domestic LU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, LU 01 increased by 29, LU 05 increased by 65, LU 09 decreased by 65, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 36, LU 05 - 09 increased by 130, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 94. [5]
LPG早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the bottom - up rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The basis weakened, and the spreads between different contract months changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly. The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The fundamentals showed that port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. Refinery production increased, but factory inventories decreased due to increased demand. The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE changed to different extents, and the production profits of related products also showed different trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed different degrees of change. For example, on August 25, South China LPG was 4545, with a daily increase of 55; East China LPG was 4402, with a daily increase of 4; Shandong LPG was 4540, with a daily increase of 30. The 09 - 10 month spread was - 587 (- 78), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 82 (+ 2). The cheapest deliverable on Monday was East China civil LPG at 4402. FEI, CP, and PP prices rose, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP production fluctuated [1] Weekly View - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4398. The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1). External market prices strengthened slightly, and internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased. The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The production profits of related products such as PDH - made propylene, alkylation oil, etc. changed to different extents. Fundamentally, port supply and demand both decreased, inventory was basically flat, refinery production increased by 1.94%, and factory inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), and the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct) [1]
《金融》日报-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various futures, including price differences, price changes, and other related indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences and Changes**: Details are provided on the price differences and changes of different stock index futures contracts, such as F, IC, IM, IF, and IH. For example, the F period - spot price difference is 21.87, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 96.70% [1]. - **Cross - Period Price Differences**: Information on cross - period price differences for different contracts, like the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, is presented. For instance, the next - month - current - month difference for IC is - 46.80, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 85.00% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures varieties are given, such as the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 300, which is 1.5584, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 97.50% [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes for different treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL, are reported. For example, the TS basis is 1.1805, with a change of 0.0273 compared to the previous trading day, and a percentile of 9.30% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Period Price Differences**: Cross - period price differences for different treasury bond futures contracts are provided. For instance, the current - quarter - next - quarter difference for TF is 0.1050, with a change of 0.0550 and a percentile of 40.50% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Price Differences**: Cross - variety price differences between different treasury bond futures are presented, such as the difference between TS and TF, which is - 3.0520, with a change of 0.0720 and a percentile of 13.90% [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices and their changes for domestic and foreign precious metals futures are reported. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 773.40 yuan/gram on August 22, down 1.72 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices and their changes for precious metals are given. For instance, the London gold price was 3371.24 US dollars/ounce on August 22, up 32.30 US dollars or 0.97% from the previous day [10]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values, ratios, and their changes for precious metals are provided. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.77, with a change of 1.69 compared to the previous value, and a historical 1 - year percentile of 64.20% [10]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventories, and Positions**: Information on interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions of precious metals is presented. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.26%, down 0.07 percentage points or 1.6% from the previous day [10]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes and their changes for container shipping routes from Shanghai to Europe are reported. For example, the MAERSK shipping price from Shanghai to Europe in the next 6 weeks is 2273 US dollars/FEU on August 25, down 77 US dollars or 3.28% from the previous day [11]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Changes in container shipping indexes, such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFI comprehensive index, are presented. For instance, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 2180.17 on August 18, down 55.3 points or 2.47% from August 11 [11]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures are provided. For example, the EC2602 futures price is 1465.0 on August 22, down 48.0 or 3.17% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is 750.2, down 15.2 or 1.99% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data on container shipping, including capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators, are reported. For example, the global container capacity supply is 3293.04 FTEU on August 22, with no change compared to August 24 [11]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Information on overseas economic indicators and events for different sectors, such as agricultural products in the US and HAD, is provided. For example, the US has USDA export inspection and crop growth data [12]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Information on domestic economic indicators and events for different sectors, such as black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities, is presented. For example, the global manganese ore shipment volume, manganese ore arrival volume, and port manganese ore inventory data are available for manganese silicon [12].
螺纹钢:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡,热轧卷板:市场情绪反复,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:58
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment of rebar and hot-rolled coil is volatile, with wide fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,138 yuan/ton and 3,389 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 31 yuan/ton, and daily increase rates of 0.71% and 0.92% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,200,313 lots (RB2510) and 508,110 lots (HC2510), and the open interests were 1,347,830 lots (RB2510) and 938,245 lots (HC2510), with changes of -63,773 lots and -59,902 lots respectively [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions increased to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 and HC2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton and 2 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601 and HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton and 9 yuan/ton respectively. The spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (August 21)**: Rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 19.85 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 3.97 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 4.86 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.52 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 21.97 tons [4]. - **Mid - August 2025 Data of Key Steel Enterprises**: The average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased by 2.0%, 0.5%, and 2.2% respectively compared with the previous period. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased by 4.0% compared with the previous ten - day period, by 26.7% compared with the beginning of the year, by 0.1% compared with the same ten - day period of last month, decreased by 4.7% compared with the same ten - day period of last year, and decreased by 5.8% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [4][5]. - **Other Data**: The Manufacturing Supply Index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13,583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].
棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调布多,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, there is no new fundamental driver, and investors are advised to wait for a price pullback to initiate long positions [1]. - For soybean oil, the trading sentiment related to the potential soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,488 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; (night session) 9,542 yuan/ton with a 0.57% change. Trading volume was 36,525 lots, a decrease of 12,233 lots, and open interest was 42,108 lots, a decrease of 13,283 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,536 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change; (night session) 8,514 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change. Trading volume was 35,235 lots, an increase of 1,154 lots, and open interest was 52,615 lots, a decrease of 18,859 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,998 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change; (night session) 9,918 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change. Trading volume was 14,288 lots, a decrease of 1,353 lots, and open interest was 24,389 lots, a decrease of 4,695 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,493 ringgit/ton with a - 0.84% change; (night session) 4,482 ringgit/ton with a - 0.22% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 54.84 cents/pound with a - 0.87% change [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,620 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 9,910 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,115 dollars/ton, with a price increase of 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil in Guangdong: Basis was 132 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil in Guangdong: Basis was 184 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Basis was - 88 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 309 yuan/ton, compared to 298 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 1,094 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,134 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 94 yuan/ton, compared to - 82 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 48 yuan/ton, compared to 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 107 yuan/ton, compared to 105 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,141,661 tons, a 10.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's complaint. Indonesia and the EU are closer to signing a free - trade agreement after a political agreement in July [4]. - USDA's crop growth report showed that as of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the pod - setting rate was 89% [4]. - Secex data indicated that Brazil exported 7,257,837.70 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 453,614.86 tons, a 24% increase compared to the average daily export volume in August last year [4]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending August 17 decreased by 64.34% to 90,800 tons. From August 1 to August 17, 2025, exports were 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [5]. - In July 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 968,515 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous month and a 3.65% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production was 408,898 tons, a 12.15% increase from the previous month and a 5.89% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production was 571,012 tons, a 12.62% increase from the previous month and a 1.42% decrease from the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0, and soybean oil trend intensity was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6].