Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02-03 and 3-4 spreads form reverse spreads, and the follow - up needs to focus on the situation of warehouse receipts. Overall, the internal and external valuations are high, the supply - demand pattern of the external market is expected to weaken, while the domestic valuation is neutral [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Data - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil, showed different degrees of changes. The daily changes on January 20 were - 60, - 50, 0, - 4, 0, - 2, 0, - 20, - 27, - 12 respectively [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the futures market dropped significantly. The 02 - 03 spread was 90 (+3), the 03 - 04 spread was - 279 (-12), and the 02 - 04 spread was - 189 (-9). On Monday night at 10 o'clock, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices rose slightly to 529.45 US dollars [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50). The warehouse receipts were 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB. The internal and external PG - FEI was 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2), and the FOB discounts of propane from AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. The freight increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (week - on - week +12). The PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external supply decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Calendar Spread - The daily changes of Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo), East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse), and South China basis (Foshan warehouse) on 1/20 were 3, 3, and 33 respectively [3] - The daily changes of 01 - 03, 02 - 03, and 03 - 06 on 1/20 were 3, 0, and 0 respectively [3] 3.2. BU Main Contract - The price of the BU main contract (02) on 1/20 was 3139, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The trading volume on 1/20 was 166,692, a decrease of 18,207 compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest on 1/20 was 413,904, a decrease of 882 compared to the previous day [3] - The warehouse receipts on 1/20 were 16,110, with no change [3] 3.3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on 1/20 was 63.9, with a daily change of -0.2 [3] - The prices of Jingbo, Shandong (non-Jingbo), Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse on 1/20 were 3100, 3100, 3150, and 3130 respectively, among which the price of Foshan warehouse increased by 30 [3] 3.4. Asphalt - Marey Profit - The asphalt - Marey profit data after 1/14 was N/A [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that glass prices may remain weakly oscillating in the short - term, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds. It attributes this to the potential contraction of supply due to some production lines' cold - repair plans, but the demand decline in the real - estate sector is expected to be more significant, with the contraction of production capacity possibly falling short of the demand drop. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货市场**：The glass futures main contract oscillated downward during the day, showing a short - term weakly oscillating signal. The trading volume decreased by 7.1 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 6,499 lots. The intraday high was 1,072, the low was 1,055, and the closing price was 1,056, down 34 yuan/ton or 3.12% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **现货市场**：The market in North China was sluggish with weak transactions; in East China, it was stable, with improved shipments in Shandong but restricted shipments in Anhui due to snow; in Central China, there was little fluctuation and weak shipments due to weather; in South China, it was stable, with downstream rush - work but average inventory - stocking willingness [1]. - **基差**：The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of - 36 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **供应方面**：As of January 15, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.0523 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, but one previously ignited production line started producing glass, and with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2]. - **库存方面**：The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and there is still an expectation of further decline [2]. - **需求方面**：The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with an increase in the executable order days in the south and a decline in the north and central regions [2][3]. - **利润方面**：The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3]. Main Logic Summary The long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, the real - estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, glass factory orders are limited, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there are still cold - repair expectations for a few production lines, the contraction of production capacity may be less than the decline in demand. It is advisable to short on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月20日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -5.86 | 2.82 | 76.20% | 48.80% | -2.97 | H期配分去 | 1.66 | 74.50% | 66.10% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 0.33 | -21.95 | 84.00% | 50.2096 | IM期现价差 | -79.05 | -8.15 | 75.00% | 21.60% | -4.20 | 次月-当月 | 7.00 | 81.90% | 50.90% | | | -44.00 | 零月-当月 | -30.20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The valuation follows the cost - end correction, being relatively neutral. Future PX supply is expected to be loose, and the processing fee is maintained at 330 USD/ton. It's advisable to focus on the long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [7]. - PTA: The PTA processing fee is at a high level. It's recommended to focus on reducing the processing - fee position. Future supply and demand will be weak, and the inventory will accumulate. The unilateral price has limited downside space [8]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. The supply pressure is still large, but the basis and monthly spreads can cover storage costs [8]. 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month - spread Closing Price | Month - spread Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX Main | 7106 | 20 | 0.28% | 68 | 8 | | PTA Main | 5030 | 12 | 0.24% | 42 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 3755 | - 41 | - 1.08% | - 108 | - 4 | | PF Main | 6398 | - 2 | - 0.03% | - 44 | 0 | | SC Main | 437.4 | - 1.4 | - 0.32% | - 1.2 | 2.3 | [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data | Spot | Price | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | 879 | 0 | | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | 4972 | 12 | | MEG Spot | 3638 | - 57 | | Naphtha MOPJ (USD/ton) | 548.5 | 0 | | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | 67.76 | 1.45 | [2] 3.3 Spot Processing Fee Data | Processing Fee | Price | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 330.5 | 4.42 | | PTA Processing Fee | 309.31 | - 70.31 | | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | 120.64 | - 21.37 | | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | 149.42 | 47.24 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PX**: On January 19, the PX price remained stable, with an April Asian spot deal at 881. The estimated PX price was 879 USD/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% [3][7]. - **PTA**: On January 19, the PTA spot price rose to 4970 CNY/ton. The current PTA operating rate is maintained at 76.9%, and the load - increasing space is limited [3][8]. - **MEG**: On January 19, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 79.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate was 80.2% (+1.6%) [4][8]. 3.5 Device Operation and Sales - **MEG**: An Anhui 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant recently reduced its load to 80 - 90%. A 360,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in the southwest began maintenance last weekend, expected to last about 10 days [6]. - **Polyester**: Two polyester plants in Xiaoshan with a total capacity of 400,000 tons started maintenance on Saturday, planning to restart on February 12. On January 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were polarized, with an average sales rate of 60% [6]. - **Polyester Yarn**: On January 19, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The PX market continues to be strong, driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. Current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers: the decline in gasoline blending profit has made the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has widened to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, significantly improving PX production economics. South Korean factories are expected to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have had a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories have advanced overhauls and are selling PTA raw materials, and the basis has weakened rapidly [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4960 to 4970, PTA closing price rose from 5018 to 5030, MEG inner - market price dropped from 3665 to 3637, and MEG closing price decreased from 3796 to 3755. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6405 to 6450, short - fiber basis rose from 57 to 67, and 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at 44. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5250, and the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1155 to 1200. East China water bottle chip price increased from 6007 to 6020, hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6007 to 6020, carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6107 to 6120, and outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 805. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 538 to 552, T32S pure polyester yarn price dropped from 10600 to 10570, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4195 to 4120, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16600 to 16700, cotton 328 price dropped from 15450 to 15440, polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1513 to 1587, and the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7210 to 7165. The cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 541 to 497, and the price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7775 to 7760 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 2 to 6398. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories declined slightly, the prices of traders fluctuated, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6320 - 6550 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6440 - 6670 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6350 - 6500 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the cost - end support weakened, the supply - end quotations were a mix of stability and decline, the on - site spot supply was slightly tight, downstream end - users replenished stocks for rigid demand, the negotiation atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center dropped slightly [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, the polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 74.00% to 60.00%, the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10% [3]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月20日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -5.86 | 2.82 | 76.20% | 48.80% | -2.97 | H期配分去 | 1.66 | 74.50% | 66.10% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 0.33 | -21.95 | 84.00% | 50.2096 | IM期现价差 | -79.05 | -8.15 | 75.00% | 21.60% | -4.20 | 次月-当月 | 7.00 | 81.90% | 50.90% | | | -44.00 | 零月-当月 | -30.20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber is in a short - term volatile market with processing fees operating at a low level, and bottle - chip is also in a short - term volatile market [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral view on the day - session main contract futures price fluctuations of the report date [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Short - fiber: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts 2602, 2603, and 2604 decreased by 6, 2, and 14 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads PF02 - 03 and PF03 - 04 changed by - 4 and 12 respectively. - The short - fiber main contract basis decreased by 18, the main contract open interest increased by 355, the main contract trading volume decreased by 6400, the East China spot price decreased by 20, and the production - sales ratio increased by 4% to 76% [1]. - Bottle - chip: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts 2602, 2603, and 2604 changed by 2, 4, and 6 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads PR01 - 02 and PR02 - 03 changed by - 2 and - 2 respectively. - The bottle - chip main contract basis decreased by 21, the main contract open interest decreased by 1121, the main contract trading volume decreased by 41151, the East China spot price decreased by 15, and the South China spot price increased by 10 [1]. Spot News - Short - fiber: The short - fiber futures fluctuated and consolidated. Factory quotes were mostly stable, with some down 50. The mainstream negotiation range of semi - dull 1.4D was 6350 - 6550. The average production - sales ratio was 60% as of 3:00 pm [1]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw materials fluctuated. Polyester bottle - chip factories lowered quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was okay, with different prices for different months' orders [2].