涤纶长丝市场近况交流 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦对涤纶长丝直接出口影响小（占比 1.67%），但对整体纺织 品服装出口影响大（美国占中国总出口 11%，中国占美国进口 33%）， 南亚东南亚国家难以完全承接中国订单，美国或接受高价继续采购。 • 2025 年一季度中国纺织品服装出口增速 1%，低于孟加拉（6.4%）、越 南（11.1%）等国，但美国库存偏低，中国仍有机会通过提升产品附加值 保持竞争力。 • 2025 年全球主要经济体原油库存低位，海外成品库存也较低，一季度美 国、欧盟库存增速分别为 18.9%、24.7%，若油价维持低位缓步抬升，中 国纺织品服装直接出口将受益，一季度化纤机织物出口同比增速达 16%。 • 2025 年中国纺织品服装出口金额表现较弱，因成品端出口单价下降显著， 如化纤梭织物服装单价下降 10.9%，导致涤纶长丝、中端纺织品、服装出 口金额失速。4 月原料价格下跌，中端主动去库存。 • 目前涤纶长丝类坯布库存 33 天，高于五年均值 30 天，但 4 月底到 5 月初 订单环比抬升。终端 DTY 工厂和纱厂已开始去库存，DTY 大厂库存从 33 天降至 23 天，P ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 - 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 变化 -105 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and insufficient time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant of continued lower - than - expected shipments from Iran. Assuming normal imports and the shutdown of Shenghong in May, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still be factored into trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries have accumulated inventory during holidays. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has increased month - on - month as maintenance in February decreased. Attention should be paid to US quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated. The basis is +10, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. Propylene is oscillating, and powder feedstock plant operation is stable. The scheduled production of drawn products is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material inventory is neutral while finished - product inventory is slightly high. Given over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH plants [6] - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the ex - factory basis is - 280. Downstream operation is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operation rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. In April, pay attention to the Politburo meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may struggle to expand profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data shows that from May 6 to May 12, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price increased by 17, the South China spot price increased by 22, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 66 [1] Plastic Polyethylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, the East China LL price decreased by 10, and the主力期货 price increased by 114 [6] Polypropylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased by 70, the主力期货 price increased by 63, and the warehouse receipt increased by 276 [6] PVC - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 10, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 10, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased by 10 [9][10]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5月计入盛虹停车和进口正常 假设，库存将累积，但4月底低库存仍将交易，05若存在预期外供应 缺口，库存将维持低位，预计为做多提供安全边际。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/12 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/3 0 | 801 | 2453 | 2415 | 2650 | 2660 | 2720 | 2755 | 258 | 340 | 218 | 170 | -812 | | 2025/05/0 6 | 801 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, an increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [10]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, with a payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan [2][10]. - Q4 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [2][10]. - Q1 2025 demonstrated a slight recovery in revenue and profit [2][10]. Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributed significantly to revenue growth, while other liquor categories also saw positive growth [10]. - Traditional channels generated 29.573 billion yuan in revenue, up 3.2% year-on-year, while emerging channels contributed 1.479 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 43.19%, and the gross margin fell by 0.76 percentage points to 87.54% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 0.67 percentage points to 49.11% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth, with projected EPS of 9.44 yuan and 10.03 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.3 and 12.5 times [10].

继续去化。聚酯工厂随着库存去化,减产的可能 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 性较低,包括FDY、短纤、瓶片所谓的减产很难 涤纶短纤产销 77.00% 125. 00% 48. 00% 以上数据来自万得资讯。 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始密 T325年深刻价格 (群贝) 解日示52E= 舞想坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 200 10000 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 202 5-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2025-01-01 2024-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - PTA: Due to intensive PX maintenance, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. With domestic PTA device maintenance, PTA basis has strengthened, and some traders' concentrated restocking has caused market tightness. Due to the contraction of PTA and PX supply, the market's positive spread has emerged. It is rumored that mainstream factories are considering canceling warehouse receipts for contract supply. PTA month - spread has widened, polyester factories' inventory reduction is close to two weeks, and downstream has a round of concentrated restocking. Polyester inventory has improved. According to the balance sheet, PTA inventory will be significantly reduced in May, and port inventory will continue to decline. If polyester inventory remains strong, PTA inventory may continue to decrease in June. Polyester factories are less likely to cut production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Trump's tariff policy has disrupted global trade, but the impact of ethane seems to have been minimized. East China MEG port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load increase of coal - based MEG devices has pressured the market, but coal prices have rebounded. The profit of coal - based devices has been compressed, and mainstream MEG device load is about to be under maintenance, leading MEG to enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Comparison - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.9 yuan/barrel on May 6, 2025, to 468.2 yuan/barrel on May 7, 2025, with an increase of 9.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1027.1 yuan/ton to 1063.5 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3080 to 1.3126. PTA spot price increased from 4480 yuan/ton to 4565 yuan/ton, and the main - contract price rose from 4362 yuan/ton to 4466 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 403.7 yuan/ton to 385.1 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 295.7 yuan/ton to 291.1 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased from 123 to 108, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 102,622 to 98,978 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract price rose from 4130 yuan/ton to 4199 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha increased from (117.35) yuan/ton to (101.54) yuan/ton, MEG domestic price increased from 4190 yuan/ton to 4255 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased from 40 to 55 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 748 to 768, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 202 to 213 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price increased from 6420 to 6490, POY cash flow decreased from (64) to (89); FDY150D/96F price increased from 6610 to 6630, FDY cash flow decreased from (374) to (449); DTY150D/48F price increased from 7695 to 7715, DTY cash flow decreased from 11 to (64). The filament sales rate increased from 30% to 60%. In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price increased from 6385 to 6405, staple fiber cash flow decreased from 251 to 176, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 73% to 125%. In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 to 5620, chip cash flow decreased from (44) to (59), and the chip sales rate increased from 37% to 70% [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 78.18%, PTA operating rate decreased from 73.93% to 71.03%, MEG operating rate remained at 58.80%, and polyester load remained at 89.96% [2]. c. Device Maintenance Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to conduct routine maintenance on its Huizhou PTA - 2 device starting from April 28, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, and plans to start routine maintenance on its Dalian PTA - 2 device around May 10, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons [4]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2650 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2660 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2660 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2435 2380 2615 2660 2605 2705 258 340 185 175 -762 2025/05/0 7 801 2432 2388 2565 2650 2585 2695 258 340 185 170 -788 日度变化 0 -3 8 -50 -10 -20 -10 0 0 0 -5 -26 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 5 801 2440 2458 2740 2610 2720 2780 261 340 163 30 -867 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2610 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2610 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2610 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2445 2380 2615 2610 2605 2705 258 340 218 175 -762 日度变化 0 -8 -35 -35 0 -115 -50 0 0 0 5 50 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将 ...