1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the destocking rhythm accelerated, which supported the price and led to a rebound in the market [1][10][11] - In the future, the fundamentals of continuous destocking during the peak season support the price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disturbances. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking and the volume and price in the spot market. In terms of strategies, short - term interval operations are recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities after the peak demand within the year are worth noting. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [2][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Destocking Acceleration and Warehouse Receipt Cancellation, Lithium Price Breaks through the Oscillation Range - Last week (10/13 - 10/17), lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. LC2510's closing price increased by 3.6% to 75,300 yuan/ton, and LC2511's increased by 4.1% to 75,700 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3% to 73,400 and 71,100 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5%. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate slightly widened to 270 yuan/ton [10][11] - Last week, warehouse receipts were continuously cancelled and taken out of storage, with a week - on - week reduction of 12,000 tons to 30,700 tons. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 132,700 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. The continuous improvement of explicit inventory data supported the price, and the market sentiment recovered [1][11] 3.2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining: Its subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days, and it is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [13] - Beijing Easpring signed an MoU with AMG to purchase lithium hydroxide. The cooperation shows their commitment to building a local battery supply chain, and they will work together to ensure the certification of AMG's production base and negotiate a binding purchase agreement [13] - Hainan Mining's Mali Bugoni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of lithium concentrate products on October 14. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for the company's lithium salt processing project [14] - Tianqi Lithium: The 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard on October 17, 2025. The company will continue to optimize the project for continuous and stable production [14] 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remain Stable - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 846 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 US dollars or 0.8% [11] 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Stabilizes and Rebounds - The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [10][11] 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes of Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Surge - The spot average prices of ternary materials 523, 622, and 811 increased by 9.6%, 3.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The spot average price of lithium cobaltate increased by 14.6% [11] 3.3.4. Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor, with the supply-demand situation being supply - strong and demand - weak. The comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined to a low level for the year, but the supply - side maintenance volume is small, and the output is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will start trial operations. Domestically, downstream construction has declined, and domestic demand is weak. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented soon, and the export outlook for the fourth quarter is poor. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it still cannot support the supply - demand situation that is weaker than in the first half of the year. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,425 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 730 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has slightly recovered, while the profit from ethylene - based production is at a low level, and the current valuation is moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.7%, a 5.9% decline from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 74.7%, down 8.2% week - on - week, and that of ethylene - based production is 81.3%, down 0.6% week - on - week. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to maintenance at enterprises such as Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Jinyuyuan, Tianye, and Zhongtai. The load is expected to rebound next week. The overall load in October is still expected to be high, and multiple devices are expected to start trial operations, resulting in continuous high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented in October - November, and exports are expected to decline after implementation. The construction rates of the three major downstream sectors decreased last week. The load of the pipe sector is 32.8%, down 7.6% week - on - week; the load of the film sector is 68.9%, up 5% week - on - week; the load of the profile sector is 15.9%, down 23% week - on - week. The overall downstream load is 39.2%, down 8.6% week - on - week, indicating weak overall downstream construction. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 55.6 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 36 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 103.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week; the total inventory was 139.4 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The industry is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. Given the supply - strong and demand - weak situation, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple graphs are presented, including those showing the PVC term structure, the price of East China SG - 5 PVC, the PVC spot basis, the 1 - 5 spread of PVC, the positions and trading volumes of active PVC contracts, and the total positions and trading volumes of PVC. These graphs are sourced from WIND, Steel Union, and the research center of Wukang Futures [15][16][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased this week, and the number of warehouse receipts was at a high level. Graphs show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the combined in - factory and social inventory of PVC, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][39]. - **Profit**: Graphs show the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration with externally purchased calcium carbide in Shandong, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production, the profit of ethylene - based PVC production, and the profit of calcium carbide production in Inner Mongolia [40]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices have stabilized. Graphs show the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide production start - up rate [46][47]. - **Semi - coke and Caustic Soda**: The prices of semi - coke and caustic soda have remained stable. Graphs show the market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi, the self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, and the market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong [48][49]. - **Ethylene**: The graph shows the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene [52]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity expansion of PVC is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Graphs show the historical trend of PVC capacity, the newly - added PVC production capacity in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the newly - added PVC production capacity in 2025 [57][60][62]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Construction**: The construction rates of the three major downstream sectors of PVC have declined. Graphs show the construction rates of PVC downstream sectors, including film, profile, and pipe sectors [73][75][77]. - **Exports**: The anti - dumping tax rate in India is expected to be implemented soon, which may lead to a decline in exports. Graphs show the export volume of PVC and the export volume of PVC to India [82][85]. - **Pre - sales**: The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. The graph shows the pre - sales volume of PVC [87]. - **Real Estate Indicator**: The graph shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area [89].

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 72,820 yuan/ton and closed at 74,940 yuan/ton, with a 2.52% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 268,890 lots, and the open interest was 177,951 lots, down from 188,523 lots the previous day. The current basis was -700 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,456 lots, a decrease of 2,620 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 820 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and watching, and the overall market trading activity was flat [1]. - New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October was expected to have growth potential. The power market of new energy vehicles was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger use, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with a decrease in smelter and downstream inventory and a slight increase in intermediate inventory [1]. 2. Company News - On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipping ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products from its Malian Bugoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate would be shipped from Bugoni to the Port of San Pedro in Côte d'Ivoire and then to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship to provide core raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market rebounded before the close on the day, mainly affected by the overall strength of commodities, inventory reduction, and warehouse receipt cancellation. There was some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory was continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound operations were recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be carried out at high prices. There were no specific strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamental data of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and inventory changes. It also mentions industry news such as production, inventory, and new project shipments. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a relatively positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts increased, with the 2511 contract closing at 74,940 and the 2601 at 75,080. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts showed different trends. The 2511 contract's trading volume decreased, while the 2601 contract's increased. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased, and the 2601 contract increased. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 2,620 to 30,456 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and futures contracts showed certain fluctuations. The basis between the 2511 and 2601 contracts was -140, and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased slightly, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly compared to previous periods [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The prices of some lithium salts and related products, such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and ternary materials, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 50 to 78,100 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,064 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous working day [1][2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, an increase of 431 tons from last week. The industry - wide inventory was 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons from last week [3]. - **Project News**: On October 14, Hainan Mining's Mali Bougouni lithium mine project held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped to Hainan Yangpu Port to supply raw materials for its lithium salt processing project [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a relatively positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.85%. The fundamentals are weak, with industrial contradictions accumulating, high inventory de - stocking pressure under weak demand, and steel prices under pressure. Cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.86%. Currently, supply is high, demand has potential risks, industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory de - stocking pressure is large, and prices are under pressure. There is a need to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.46%. Supply pressure remains, market sentiment has weakened, and high - valued ore prices have declined under pressure. However, high - level rigid demand for ore provides support, and there is resistance to downward movement. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI in September**: The core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. The PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - **Heavy - truck sales in September**: In September 2025, China's truck market sold 312,000 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. The heavy - truck market sold 105,600 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and an 83% year - on - year increase, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 36 percentage points compared to August [7]. - **Brazil terminates anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tire steel cord**: On October 14, 2025, Brazil's Department of Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services announced the termination of the anti - dumping investigation on tire steel cord originating from China at the request of the applicant [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 20, 20, and 8 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 10, 20, and 6 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports decreased by 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates increased by 0.12 and 0.32 respectively, the SGX swap (current month) decreased by 1.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) decreased by 3.00 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,034, a decline of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,018,136 with a decrease of 139,971, and the open interest was 2,051,545 with an increase of 60,083 [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,212, a decline of 0.86%. The trading volume was 501,197 with a decrease of 31,727, and the open interest was 1,469,405 with an increase of 17,676 [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 776.5, a decline of 1.46%. The trading volume was 305,761 with a decrease of 219,731, and the open interest was 508,365 with an increase of 8,566 [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][24] - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 45 ports' seasonal inventory, 247 steel mills' inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][22][26] - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent arc - furnace steel mills for building materials [28][30][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - **Rebar**: After the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply decreased but the space for further reduction during the peak season is questionable, and inventory is high. Demand is weak, and it is expected that prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, with attention paid to demand performance [35] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Supply is at a high level and inventory is high, while demand has potential risks. The price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35] - **Iron ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Demand is still okay, but the positive effect may weaken. Supply pressure has increased. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with attention paid to steel performance [36]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant impact of Trump's announcement to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting November 1, leading to a risk-off sentiment in the market, resulting in a notable decline in U.S. stocks and copper prices, while gold remained strong [2][5][8] - In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 3.15%, while silver fell by 0.95%. The SHFE gold contract increased by 3.11%, and SHFE silver rose by 1.5% [4][29] - The copper market experienced a sharp decline due to renewed trade concerns, with COMEX copper prices dropping by 4.72% and SHFE copper prices fluctuating [4][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the divergence in performance between gold and copper, with gold prices remaining strong amid macroeconomic risks, while copper faced downward pressure due to trade tensions and domestic consumption issues [7][57] - The COMEX copper price curve has shifted downward, indicating a contango structure, with significant inventory accumulation observed, surpassing 330,000 tons [10][11] - The copper concentrate market is under pressure, with processing fees remaining low and expectations for a rebound in processing fees being limited in the short term [15][23] Group 3 - The article notes that the gold market is expected to remain strong in the medium to long term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the decoupling of U.S.-China trade, despite potential short-term volatility [7][57] - The inventory levels for COMEX gold decreased by approximately 170,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 941,000 ounces [45] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.3 tons to 1,017 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Industrial silicon [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The industry is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has significantly slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation, indicating that the fundamentals have turned loose. Considering the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertainty of the demand for polysilicon in the core consumption direction, there is no obvious unilateral driver in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose and then fell, closing with a negative line. The trading volume decreased significantly, with a full - day trading volume of 210,531 lots and an open interest of 176,563 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 407,790 lots, an increase of 8,057 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 2,165 lots [4]. 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the southwest production area, as the wet season is coming to an end, the smelting electricity price is facing an increase, leading to higher production costs. In the north production area, the electricity price is relatively stable throughout the year due to the use of coal - fired power. After the anti - involution, the profit is acceptable. Against the background of the planned production cut in the southwest, large factories in Xinjiang may have the expectation of further increasing production, which makes the market worried that the supply is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell today. The main 2511 contract formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly. Both the long and short sides continued to wait and see. From the daily chart, the futures price formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows below the 50 - day moving average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the future [7]. 4.3 Market Outlook - The industry is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The fundamentals have become looser. Given the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertain demand for polysilicon, there is no clear one - way driving force in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10].

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber futures market is experiencing a weak fluctuation, with the main contract showing a decline of 1.50% as of the latest update, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 10, the main short fiber futures contract reached a low of 6176.00 yuan and is currently priced at 6180.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.50% [1]. - The trading range for direct-spun polyester short fiber is maintained between 6300 to 6550 yuan, with limited inventory increase during the holiday period [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures suggests that the absolute price of short fiber will follow cost trends, with a stable factory quotation and a sales average of 67% [2]. - Donghai Futures indicates that the short fiber market will continue to follow the polyester sector's adjustments, with limited upward potential due to seasonal order increases being modest [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - During the holiday, steel prices were stable, and rebounded slightly after the holiday. Steel production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October after the holiday, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The steel export volume remained high on the 6th, and short - term supply and demand are basically balanced with little inventory pressure. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in January contracts should focus on the support levels of 3050 and 3200 respectively. Unilateral trading has no obvious driver. For arbitrage, reverse spreads on monthly differentials should be considered when they are high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should converge [3]. Iron Ore Industry - On the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore prices fluctuated and rose, mainly due to the peak - season expectation in October, high iron - making water production, and concerns about Australian ore supply. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the overseas iron ore swap prices follow the domestic trend. Iron ore has the driving force to rebound, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival volume of BHP shipments [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - After the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot prices. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increases, but may face downward pressure due to falling steel prices and compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak, but futures have advanced the rebound expectation due to supply - side disturbances. For trading strategies, long positions can be taken at low prices for coking coal 2601, reverse spreads can be considered for coke 1 - 5, and out - of - the - money call options for coke 2601 can be bought at low prices [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, down 30, 20, and 20 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The daily average iron - making water production is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the production of five major steel products is 863.3 tons, down 3.8 tons (- 0.4%); the rebar production is 203.4 tons, down 3.6 tons (- 1.7%) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1600.7 tons, up 127.9 tons (8.7%); the rebar inventory is 659.6 tons, up 57.4 tons (9.5%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 tons, up 32.3 tons (8.5%) [3]. Demand - The building materials trading volume is 12.0 tons, up 3.9 tons (49.0%); the apparent demand for five major steel products is 751.4 tons, down 153.4 tons (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of different types of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with an increase of about 0.7% - 0.8%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.9%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.1% [5]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume is 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons (10.5%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3279.0 tons, down 196.4 tons (- 5.7%); the national monthly import volume is 10522.5 tons, up 61.5 tons (0.6%) [5]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the weekly average daily 45 - port ore - unloading volume is 0.0 tons, down 336.4 tons (- 100.0%); the national monthly pig - iron production is 6979.3 tons, down 100.5 tons (- 1.4%); the national monthly crude - steel production is 7736.9 tons, down 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.2% week - on - week; the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1%; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 16.0% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 3.4%, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 2.7%. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts in January and May increased. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased by 7.4% [9]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The weekly production of raw coal in Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 3.6%, and the production of clean coal products decreased by 4.4% [9]. Demand - The weekly iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, while that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% [9]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5%, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 14.5%, while that of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased [9]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly by 3.2% [9].