Group 1 - In July, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [3] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase, accounting for over 60% of the total CPI rise [6] Group 2 - The surge in travel-related consumption during the summer vacation season led to significant price increases in various sectors, with airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rental fees rising by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively [9] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase [13] - The CPI remained flat year-on-year due to lower food prices, with fresh vegetable prices declining by 7.6% year-on-year, a drop that expanded by 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 3.3 percentage points [15]

Group 1 - Recent decline in government bond futures prices, with 10-year government bond yields rising above 1.7% due to increased market risk appetite driven by strong commodity prices and improved economic data [1][2] - Strong performance in commodity prices, particularly polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, influenced by "anti-involution" policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [2] - July PPI showed a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, the first contraction reduction since March, driven by stabilizing prices in coal and steel industries [3] Group 2 - July's import and export data exceeded expectations, with total trade reaching $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, supported by strong exports to emerging markets despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [4] - The central bank's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with net withdrawals totaling 932.6 billion yuan, while maintaining liquidity to support short-term bond prices [5] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence market dynamics, leading to a divergence in bond prices and increased pressure on long-term bonds following the resumption of VAT on government and financial bonds [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market has not yet shown an independent trend. Under the unchanged dominance of risk preference, the market makes bond trading based on stock market performance, and the volatile pattern may continue. It is necessary to wait for new driving factors to break the balance. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the moment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.01%, and 0.55% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased to 76,606, 56,309, 34,103, and 111,356 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.06 to -0.43; T2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.00 to -0.11; TF2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.01 to 0.05; TS2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.01 to 0.04; T09 - TL09 spread increased by 0.58 to -10.11; TF09 - T09 spread increased by 0.04 to -2.76; TS09 - T09 spread increased by 0.13 to -6.13; TS09 - TF09 spread increased by 0.09 to -3.37 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased to 157,180, 108,276, 78,794, and 92,576 respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 long positions changed to 194,913 (up 1,334), 142,387 (down 803), 81,413 (up 616), and 120,931 (up 831) respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 short positions changed to 193,534 (down 1,096), 154,177 (down 1,574), 88,984 (down 717), and 115,443 (down 1,235) respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 net short positions changed to -1,379 (up 2,430), 11,790 (down 771), 7,571 (down 1,333), and -5,488 (up 2,066) respectively [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of several bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, 240020.IB, etc. all decreased [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.45bp, 0.25bp respectively, while the yield of 10y increased by 0.35bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, and silver - pledged 14 - day interest rates increased by 1.17bp, 0.06bp, and 7.00bp respectively; Shibor 7 - day and Shibor 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.36bp and 1.39bp respectively; silver - pledged 7 - day interest rate remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 112 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 554.8 billion yuan, with a net回笼 of 442.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.9 Industry News - In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline last month to a 0.4% increase, and was flat year - on - year; the PPI环比 decreased by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. On August 11, the Ministry of Finance revised and issued the "Administrative Measures for Funds to Support Preschool Education Development". On August 8, Beijing optimized and adjusted real estate policies, allowing residents who meet the purchase conditions to buy an unlimited number of commercial housing units outside the Fifth Ring Road [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - Pay attention to the US July unadjusted CPI annual rate at 20:30 on August 11 and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 (in ten thousand people) at 20:30 on August 14 [3]

此前发布的数据显示，7月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，同比持平，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.2%，环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，为3月份以来首次收窄，同比 下降3.6%，降幅与上月相同。 前述数据表明，随着扩内需政策效应持续显现，消费领域价格继续呈现积极变化，虽然受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响，工业生产 者出厂价格仍为下降，但国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动部分行业价格改善。 发布会预告。 据中国网消息，国务院新闻办公室将于2025年8月15日（星期五）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综 合统计司司长付凌晖介绍2025年7月份国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 （文章来源：证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming press conference by the State Council Information Office, where the National Bureau of Statistics will present the economic performance for July 2025, highlighting key economic indicators such as CPI and PPI [2]. Economic Indicators Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained unchanged. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March. Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline rate consistent with the previous month [5]. - The data indicates that the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are becoming evident, leading to positive changes in consumer prices. However, industrial producer prices continue to decline due to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, although competition in the domestic market is improving prices in certain industries [5].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months [2][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI fell by 3.6%, but macroeconomic policies and industry upgrades are contributing to positive price changes in some sectors [4][5] - The ongoing expansion of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies are expected to support price stability and gradual recovery in the second half of the year [5][6]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]

国家统计局最新发布的数据显示，7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由降转涨，上涨0.4%， 同比持平；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大……从7月物价数据中， 能够读出哪些积极信号？ ——季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响部分行业价格下降。夏季高温雨水天气增多，一方面建 筑项目施工进度放缓影响建材需求；另一方面部分地区河流水量充沛，水力发电对火力发电的补充替代 作用明显增强，电煤需求减少，电价下降。此外，在国际贸易环境不确定性影响下，计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业、电气机械和器材制造业等领域价格下降。 ——国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动相关行业价格降幅收窄。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，煤炭、钢 材、光伏、水泥和锂电等行业市场竞争秩序持续优化，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工 业、光伏设备及元器件制造、水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比降幅均比上月收窄。 专家表示，7月份，扩内需政策效应持续显现，叠加全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，消费领域价格继续 呈现积极变化，物价运行出现边际改善的迹象。 扩内需政策效应持续显现 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，CPI同比持平 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2025 increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating a positive trend in consumer prices driven by service and industrial goods [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth, reflecting the ongoing effects of domestic demand expansion policies [2][3] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI increase, with significant price hikes in travel-related services due to the summer vacation season [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July 2025, but the decline was less than in previous months, indicating a narrowing of the downward trend for the first time since March [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the average PPI for January to July 2025 down by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth [4][5] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to seasonal factors and enhanced market competition in various industries, including coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, which have seen reduced price declines [4][5]