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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250707
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:50
2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:一轮提涨发酵,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤:日耗修复,震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木:主力切换,宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 7 日 铁矿石:预期反复,宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 732.5 | -0.5 | -0.07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250707
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:49
2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:成本支撑偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:多PX空PTA止盈 | 2 | | MEG:单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青:原油小跌,震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期偏弱震荡 | 10 | | PP:现货震荡,成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱:液氯降价,成本抬升 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素:震荡有支撑 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG:短期宽幅震荡 | 25 | | PVC:短期震荡,后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油:夜盘窄幅调整,盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油:短期偏强,外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 30 | | 集运指数(欧线):08震荡整理;10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤:震荡偏弱,需求压力逐步体现 | 35 | | 瓶 ...
永安期货有色早报-20250707
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:31
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/07 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 变化 -5 -23 ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20250707
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:30
流动性日报 | 2025-07-07 市场流动性概况 2025-07-04,股指板块成交6259.37亿元,较上一交易日变动+60.52%;持仓金额10953.23亿元,较上一交易日变动 +9.99%;成交持仓比为56.94%。 国债板块成交2689.97亿元,较上一交易日变动-6.49%;持仓金额9273.53亿元,较上一交易日变动+2.56%;成交持 仓比为29.61%。 基本金属板块成交3490.09亿元,较上一交易日变动+3.46%;持仓金额5073.71亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.34%;成 交持仓比为89.73%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属(金属板块) 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交4772.40亿元,较上一交易日变动-0.06%;持仓金额4334.48亿元,较上一交易日变动+0.42%;成 交持仓比为91.84%。 农产品板块成交2663.79亿元,较上一交易日变动-3.06%;持仓金额5594.53亿元,较上一交易日 ...
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250707
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:16
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报(2025 年 7 月 7 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织,焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 现实与预期博弈,焦炭震荡调整 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:焦煤(JM) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡思路 核心逻辑:截至 7 月 4 日当周,全国 523 家炼焦煤矿 ...
中证商品指数公司发布能源化工产业期货指数系列
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-07 01:09
6月30日,中证商品指数公司正式对外发布中证能源化工产业期货指数系列。近日,就该指数系列的编 制发布相关情况,中证商品指数公司有关负责人接受了期货日报记者的采访。 期货日报记者:请介绍一下中证商品指数公司编制并发布中证能源化工产业期货指数系列的背景及总体 考虑。 中证商品指数公司有关负责人:为贯彻落实中央金融工作会议提出的"坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根 本宗旨"的要求,充分发挥期货市场对新型工业化的支持作用,中证商品指数公司立足商品指数功能定 位,积极把握业务规律和市场需求,以研发能源化工等重点指数为抓手,扎实推进商品指数体系构建及 落地工作,稳慎探索期货市场和指数业务创新发展路径。 能源化工产业作为国民经济的"动力引擎"与"工业血液",因其庞大的经济总量和广泛的产业关联度,在 国民经济平稳健康发展中扮演着重要角色。结合我国能源化工产业发展实际与期货品种运行规律,中证 商品指数公司聚焦产业及投资者对精准、高效的分析工具和风险管理手段的迫切需求,经过全方位调研 论证,近期研究推出了中证能源化工产业期货指数系列。 另一方面,在产业供需分析上,它能帮助宏观管理部门直观了解能源化工产业的供需变化。指数涵盖了 能源化工 ...
镍:上方弹性受限,镍价低位承压,不锈钢:库存轻微消化,钢价修复但弹性有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 23:50
2025 年 7 月 7 日 镍:上方弹性受限,镍价低位承压 不锈钢:库存轻微消化,钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力(收盘价) | 122,270 | 480 | 1,790 | 3,990 | -320 | -5,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力(收盘价) | 12,730 | 20 | 110 | 225 | 10 | -700 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力(成交量) | 111,042 | 32,053 | 16,854 | 28,449 | -6,374 | -73,957 | | | | 不锈钢主力(成交量) | 102,164 | 16,753 | -39,913 | -29,076 | 6,478 | -83,259 | | | | 1#进口镍 | 122,7 ...
库存回落后企稳 液化石油气短线呈现区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-06 23:40
贝克休斯油服:美国钻井公司连续第十周削减石油和天然气钻机数。 截至2025年7月4日当周,液化石油气期货主力合约收于4180元/吨,周K线收阴,持仓量环比上周减持 12670手。 本周(6月30日-7月4日)市场上看,液化石油气期货周内开盘报4254元/吨,最高触及4268元/吨,最低 下探至4166元/吨,周度涨跌幅达-1.62%。 消息面回顾: 截至2025年7月3日,中国液化气样本企业库容率水平在24.71%,较上期(20250626)缩减0.45个百分 点。 最新数据显示,截至7月3日当周,全国264家液化气生产企业,液化气商品量总量为53.80万吨左右,周 环比降0.57%。 机构观点汇总: 瑞达期货(002961):美国尚未与几个大型贸易伙伴达成贸易协议,市场担忧需求前景;OPEC+大概 率将在8月延续41.1万桶/日的增产力度;美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期,失业率下 降;美国在线钻探油井数量425座,出现明显减少;国际油价小幅下跌。市场燃烧需求持续疲软且价格 跟随成本高位运行引发下游观望。下游按需采购,炼厂库存有所下降;华南市场供需双弱,实际交投平 淡。短线价格预计延续整理。技术 ...
2025年期货市场展望:供需格局延续宽松,关税扰动贸易流向
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].
2025年期货市场展望:玻璃需求持续走弱,关注供应端变化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:47
Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 下半年房地产竣工端的玻璃消费仍将进一步走弱,其中家装散单消费也将继续下滑,汽车玻璃消费有望继续保持正增长,预计全年玻璃消 费下降约 7.1%。供应端,当前浮法玻璃利润均已大幅收窄,部分制法出现明显亏损,若全行业继续出现大幅亏损,不排除部分产线有下 滑可能...... 玻璃需求持续走弱,关注供应端变化 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 玻璃需求持续走弱,关注供应端变化 研究院 黑色建材组 2025 年 07 月 06 日 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3056360 投资咨询号:Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 期货研究报告 | 玻璃半年报 2025-07-06 研究员 王海涛 邮箱:wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨 ...