Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices raises questions about whether it reflects genuine demand in the industry or is driven by speculative capital and potential risks, indicating a distortion of price signals and risk transfer within the lithium battery supply chain [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, lithium carbonate futures prices reached 145,000 yuan/ton, with spot market prices also rising sharply, surpassing 120,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton, indicating a continued upward trend since last year [3]. - By December 2025, the capital in the lithium carbonate futures market approached 30 billion yuan, ranking fourth among commodity futures, with speculative funds accounting for 52% of the total, highlighting a market driven more by profit-seeking than risk hedging [5]. - The disparity between futures and spot prices has widened, with futures prices trading at a discount to spot prices, indicating a detachment from the underlying supply-demand fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Downstream enterprises report that current transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with no significant stockpiling behavior observed, contrasting sharply with the heated futures market [6]. - The surge in futures prices has led to increased import prices for lithium concentrate, which rose from 617 USD/ton in June 2025 to 1,400 USD/ton by December, a 127% increase, forcing lithium salt manufacturers to pass on costs to downstream products [8]. - The actual global lithium resource situation is not one of scarcity, but rather a structural contradiction in the supply chain, with significant resources concentrated in specific regions, leading to high raw material costs for domestic industries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Predictions - Experts note that while there have been significant changes in the lithium carbonate industry since 2025, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, with predictions indicating a slight surplus in 2025 [11]. - Domestic companies are actively expanding production capacity, with new projects being launched, such as a 450,000-ton phosphoric acid lithium project and a 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project [12]. - The real issue in the market is not an overall surplus but a structural tension in high-quality battery-grade capacity, with speculation distorting the perception of a general shortage [12]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Stability - The speculative nature of the market poses significant risks to the health of the industry, leading to distorted business operations and potential over-investment in low-quality capacities [15]. - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to curb excessive speculation, including increasing transaction costs and limiting trading volumes to stabilize the market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to regulate the lithium battery industry and guide capital back to rationality, ensuring that pricing power remains aligned with fundamental industry conditions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral bullish, focus on the positive spread between different contract months, and consider a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [5] - PTA: Unilateral bullish, go long on PX and short on PTA [6] - MEG: Unilateral short - term bullish rebound, exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of PX, PTA, and MEG, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment. It believes that although the fundamentals of these products may face challenges in the future, short - term price trends are still affected by various factors and show a relatively strong performance [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts increased to varying degrees yesterday, with the largest increase of 3.96% in SC. The price spreads of different contract months also changed, with PX5 - 9 and PTA5 - 9 rising, and MEG5 - 9 falling [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent prices increased, while PTA East China price decreased. The spreads between PX and naphtha, and short - fiber processing fees decreased, while PTA processing fees and bottle - chip processing fees increased [2] Market Dynamics - On January 9, during the Asian trading session, crude oil prices strengthened due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Iran. However, the increase in foreign currency prices was not as strong as that of other commodities [3] - Chinese downstream polyester production slowed down earlier than expected due to poor sales and lower profit margins. The buying interest in PX cargoes arriving in February was still weak, and demand was expected to be weak during the Chinese New Year holiday in February [3] - Outside China, the situation of cargo accumulation was not as severe, with only a small amount of unsold February PX cargoes among some South Korean manufacturers [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Although the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the future, with increasing supply and high processing fees, cost support from oil prices and positive macro - market sentiment keep the short - term trend strong. Consider a positive spread between different contract months and a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA when PTA processing fees rise above 400 yuan/ton [5] - **PTA**: Future supply and demand are expected to be weak, with PTA device operation rate stable and downstream demand decreasing. However, due to the current high polyester operation rate and low PTA inventory, the short - term price trend is still strong. Pay attention to positions for narrowing the processing fee [6] - **MEG**: The current low price is due to the reduced efficiency of the intermediate trading link, which is expected to improve. Although demand will decline, supply pressure will also be relieved, and the price has strong support at 3600 yuan/ton. Exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - **MEG**: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - **Pulp**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - **Methanol**: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - **Urea**: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - **Short - fiber**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including economic data from China and the US, agricultural reports, and central bank publications [2][3]. - It also presents expected values for various economic indicators and analyzes how different data outcomes might affect different types of futures prices [3][8]. Key Events and Data Releases January 12 - China's central bank will release December 2025 financial statistics, with expected social financing scale increment of 1950 billion yuan, social financing scale stock growth of 8.2%, new RMB loans of 750 billion yuan, and M2 growth of 7.9% [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will publish the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products [4]. January 13 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly crop supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [5][6]. - The US Labor Department will announce the December 2025 CPI, with expected unadjusted CPI annual rate of 2.7%, unadjusted core CPI annual rate of 2.7%, core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment [8]. - The US Commerce Department will disclose the October 2025 new home sales, with an expected annualized total of 705,000 units [9]. January 14 - The US Energy Information Administration will issue the monthly short - term energy outlook report [10]. - China will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 annual and December import - export situation, with expected December export growth of 2.9% and import growth of 0.8% in US dollars [12]. - OPEC will publish the monthly crude oil market report [13]. - The US Commerce Department will announce December 2025 retail sales, with expected monthly rates of 0.4% for retail sales and core retail sales [14]. - The US Labor Department will release December 2025 PPI, with expected monthly rate of 0.2% and annual rate of 2.6% [15]. - The US National Association of Realtors will disclose December 2025 existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4.22 million units [16]. - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 9, with the previous value being a decrease of 3.832 million barrels [17]. January 15 - The Federal Reserve will publish the economic situation Beige Book [18]. - The US Labor Department will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, with an expected value of 210,000 [19]. January 16 - The Federal Reserve will release December 2025 industrial output, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% [20].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th anniversary of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures marks its evolution into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, reflecting the country's economic growth and the maturation of its futures market, while also enhancing risk management and price discovery functions [1] Group 1: Development and Achievements - Since its launch in 2006, soybean oil futures have grown significantly, with average daily trading volume increasing from 43,100 contracts to 445,000 contracts by 2025, and average open interest rising from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there are 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures across seven provinces, ensuring ample delivery capacity and supporting industry participation in the futures market [4] - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with the futures price becoming a key pricing benchmark for domestic soybean oil trade [4] Group 2: Market Adaptation and Risk Management - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented various measures to ensure soybean oil futures remain closely aligned with the physical market, including expanding delivery regions and optimizing delivery standards based on raw material quality changes [2][3] - The introduction of dynamic premium and discount systems and the establishment of delivery warehouses in key production areas have enhanced the flexibility and efficiency of the delivery process [2][3] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have effectively utilized futures for risk management, demonstrating the integration of futures into their operational strategies to stabilize profits and manage price volatility [8][9] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Global Impact - The soybean oil industry has transitioned from reliance on foreign oil to a competitive landscape dominated by state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises, driven by the need for price risk management [5][6] - By 2025, China is projected to produce approximately 18.71 million tons of soybean oil, accounting for about 30% of global production and consumption, establishing itself as the largest producer and consumer [6] - The opening of the soybean oil futures market to foreign investors and the introduction of related contracts in international markets have enhanced China's pricing influence in global oilseed trade [14][15] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Importance - The development of soybean oil futures serves as a model for the broader Chinese futures market, emphasizing the importance of being rooted in the physical industry and driven by genuine risk management needs [16][17] - The collaborative efforts of regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants have been crucial in nurturing a mature market that effectively serves the entire supply chain [17] - As the market evolves, companies are encouraged to enhance their risk management capabilities and leverage futures and options to navigate increasing market complexities and competition [18]

Core Insights - The development of soybean oil futures over the past 20 years has transformed it into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, providing essential risk management and price discovery functions [1][4][19] - The futures market has evolved alongside China's economic growth and structural adjustments, reflecting a shift from exploration to maturity in the domestic futures market [1][19] Market Capacity - Since its launch, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil futures has increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts in 2025, while the average open interest has risen from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there will be 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures, ensuring broad coverage and sufficient delivery capacity across various regions [4] Industry Participation - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with more than 90% of sales using a pricing model based on the futures price plus a premium or discount [4] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of industry clients holding positions in soybean oil futures is expected to reach 52% [4] Industry Transformation - The soybean crushing industry has seen rapid growth, with production capacity exceeding 180 million tons, making China the largest producer and consumer of soybean oil globally [7] - The market has shifted from reliance on foreign oil to a more balanced structure among state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises since 2018 [6][7] Risk Management - Soybean oil futures have become a critical tool for enterprises to manage price risks, with significant price fluctuations observed in recent years [8] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have successfully integrated futures into their operations, enhancing their risk management capabilities and overall business performance [9][10] Pricing Mechanism - The introduction of basis trading has redefined pricing and cooperation models in the industry, moving from fixed pricing to a more flexible model based on futures prices plus basis [11][12] - The maturity of the soybean oil futures market has provided a reliable price benchmark, enhancing the efficiency and risk management capabilities of the entire industry [12][19] Internationalization - The soybean oil futures market has opened up to foreign investors, enhancing its international pricing influence and allowing for better risk management across markets [14][15][16] - The integration of domestic prices with international markets has improved the responsiveness of Chinese prices to global supply and demand changes [15][16] Lessons Learned - The success of soybean oil futures illustrates the importance of being rooted in the underlying industry and addressing real risk management needs [17][18] - A collaborative approach among regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants has been crucial for the development of a mature futures market [17][18]

Group 1 - The content does not provide specific information related to precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy and shipping futures, financial futures, or agricultural futures markets [1][2][3]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Peanuts - Researcher: Chen Bo [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Technical analysis shows that the price has rebounded for two consecutive days after hitting a recent low, with increased trading volume, indicating a warming of short - term market sentiment. Fundamentally, the insufficient supply in the production area supports the price, but the weak demand for peanut oil limits the upside potential [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange peanut futures main contract (PK.CZC) was 8066 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8124 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8072 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,402 lots, the turnover was 5.83125 billion yuan, and the open interest was 164,702 lots. The price showed a volatile upward trend, and the trading volume and turnover increased compared to the recent average, indicating enhanced market trading activity [2] 3.2 Spot Market - From January to June 2025, the basis showed a volatile downward trend, gradually falling from 1582 yuan to around 1000 yuan, reflecting a narrowing of the price difference between futures and spot. The long - term positive basis indicates that the peanut futures market has been in a state of spot premium, reflecting the market's expectation of tight peanut spot supply [4][5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - On January 7, the market price of peanut general rice was stable, with an average price of 8571 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The supply at the grass - roots level was still insufficient. The trading in the Henan production area was good, and the replenishment and procurement by merchants in the Northeast production area increased slightly. Most transactions were negotiated. The mainstream price of the peanut oil market was 14,320 yuan/ton, the peak demand season was less than expected, the downstream trading atmosphere was sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders was not high. The stalemate between limited supply in the peanut production area and cautious replenishment by traders is the main factor supporting the current price [6] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - In the past 20 trading days, the peanut futures price showed a range - bound trend, mainly fluctuating in the range of 7920 - 8120 yuan/ton. After hitting a stage low of 7938 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, the price rebounded for two consecutive days, rising 1.56% on January 6 and 1.0% on January 7, forming a short - term rebound trend. The current price has broken through the upper limit of the 20 - day trading range, showing signs of stabilization and recovery on the technical side. The 20 - day high of 8124 yuan/ton forms a short - term resistance level, and around 8000 yuan/ton below forms the main support [7]

Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold surpassed $4510 per ounce, increasing by 0.73% for the day; New York futures gold exceeded $4520 per ounce, rising by 1.33% [1][10] - As of the week ending January 6, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that speculators reduced net long positions in New York COMEX gold by 2,617 contracts to 124,256 contracts [1][10] - Spot silver broke through $80 per ounce, gaining 4.05% for the day; New York futures silver also surpassed $80 per ounce, increasing by 6.46%; the continuous main contract for silver rose by 7%, currently at 19,588.00 yuan [1][10] - CFTC data indicated that silver speculators increased net long positions by 1,063 contracts to 17,658 contracts [2][11] Base Metals Futures - CFTC data showed that as of January 6, speculators in New York COMEX copper reduced net long positions by 3,537 contracts to 66,896 contracts [3][12] - Tin's continuous main contract increased by 4% for the day, currently priced at 362,990.00 yuan [4][12] Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil rose by 3% for the day, currently at $59.37 per barrel; it previously surpassed $59 per barrel, increasing by 2.36% [5][13] - U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline, dropping over 8.00%, currently at $3.133 per million British thermal units; during the day, it fell over 5.00%, 6.00%, and 7.00%, reaching a low of $3.168 per million British thermal units [5][13] Agricultural Futures - Methanol's continuous main contract increased by 2% for the day, currently at 2,290.00 yuan; PTA's continuous main contract also rose by 2%, currently at 5,192.00 yuan [6][14] Macro and Market Impact - Trump stated that oil companies would receive security guarantees in Venezuela, leading to Chevron's stock rising over 1.8%; during his remarks on Venezuelan oil issues, Chevron and ExxonMobil's stocks increased by over 1%, while ConocoPhillips' stock fell by over 1% [7][15] - Trump also mentioned that Venezuela agreed to allow the U.S. to refine up to 50 million barrels of oil, with 30 million barrels delivered to the U.S. the previous day [8][15] - The Venezuelan government announced the initiation of "exploratory diplomacy" with the U.S. to restore diplomatic missions [9][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock is on the strong side [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply-demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro expectations and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong operation, but the upward space may be limited. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of soda ash opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands continued to have three tracks upward, indicating a short-term shock on the strong side. The upper pressure was focused on the 20 and 60 moving averages on the weekly line, and the support continued to focus on the 40 moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 643,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 1,967 lots. The intraday high was 1,242, the low was 1,204, and the closing price was 1,228, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (1.6% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the maintenance expectations were few. The industrial supply hovered at a high level. The downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the demand was neither strong nor weak, and most of them maintained low-price on-demand replenishment and were resistant to high prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 22 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56,500 tons (8.11% increase). Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, compared with 79.96% last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month-on-month increase of 11.20%; the combined process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month-on-month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 88.15%, a month-on-month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons compared with Monday (4.26% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,800 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons (11.67% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10,190 tons (6.93% increase) [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined process was -40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-soda process was -57.85 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material ore salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, resulting in an increase in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current daily output of soda ash has reached 110,300 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.39%. Coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Before the New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down for cold repair, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing the inventory. However, there is certain short-term support under continuous losses and positive macro sentiment [4]