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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260212
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 06:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].
光大期货煤化工商品日报(2026 年 2 月 12 日)-20260212
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:40
光大期货煤化工商品日报(2026 年 2 月 12 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素期货价格偏强震荡,主力05合约收盘价1797元/吨,涨幅0.34%。现货市场维持稳 | | | | 定,昨日山东、河南市场价格均维持在1800元/吨,现货市场基本处于 停 状态,市场有 | | | | 价无市。基本面来看,尿素供应水平高位运行,昨日行业日产量21.39万吨,日环比持平。 | | | | 需求力 继续回落,昨日主流地区产销率回落至5% 40%。节前厂家订单基本收完,物流 | | | 尿素 | 运力及下游逐渐放假,市场活跃度继续下降。好的方面在于本周尿素企业库存加 下降, | 窄幅 震荡 | | | 去库幅 高 9.12%,且节后市场将逐步 来需求 季,价格表现仍较 坚挺。整体来看, | | | | 春节前尿素市场逐步趋稳,期货价格震荡运行。假期期间国际市场印标等 动因素较多, | | | | 注意控制仓位,建议轻仓或空仓 节。 | | | | 周三纯碱期货价格窄幅波动,主力05合约收盘价1178元/吨,日环比持平。现货价格维持稳 定,贸 ...
油价偏强支撑成本,现货交投冷淡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE Market**: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP Market**: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No operation [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]
继续关注后续装置重启动向
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Keep an eye on the restart progress of subsequent plants. The production profit of styrene has started to peak and decline, and the market is worried about the possibility of supply returning more than expected under the current production profit. The seasonal inventory build - up of styrene at ports before the festival has not been realized as expected. [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 64 yuan/ton (- 65), and the spread between the spot in East China and M2 is - 135 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 118 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton). [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Internal - external Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of CFR China is 154 dollars/ton (- 13 dollars/ton), and the processing fee of FOB South Korea is 152 dollars/ton (- 13 dollars/ton). The profit of adipic acid production is - 154 yuan/ton (+ 78), and the profit of aniline production is 1061 yuan/ton (- 73). [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 420 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. [1] 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 million tons (- 0.80 million tons), and the operating rate starts to bottom out and rebound. [1][2] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 96,200 tons (- 12,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 54,000 tons (- 6,800 tons). The operating rate is 70.0% (+ 0.7%), and the domestic operating rate has passed the lowest point. [1][2] 3.4 Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 311 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.24% (+ 2.98%). [2] - PS: The production profit is - 339 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 55.20% (- 0.40%). [2] - ABS: The production profit is - 657 yuan/ton (- 26 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 64.40% (- 1.70%). [2] 3.5 Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 660 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 73.16% (- 0.41%). [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 716 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol operating rate is 86.00% (- 2.00%). [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 1061 yuan/ton (- 73), and the operating rate is 89.04% (+ 0.51%). [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 154 yuan/ton (+ 78), and the operating rate is 69.10% (+ 0.60%). [1]
边际过剩加剧,预计震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:13
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but high polysilicon inventories suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints, and the large - scale inventory reduction is slow, suppressing price increases. There is currently no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8370 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.48)% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2605 held 303387 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 10, 2026, was 18117, a change of 1368 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 56.2 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1]. - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be sluggish. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were few new orders, polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated upward, opening at 48125 yuan/ton and closing at 49180 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38313 positions (38617 the previous day), and the trading volume was 4793 [2]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a 2.40% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 3.77% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 20100.00 tons, a (-0.50)% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a (-11.66)% month - on - month change [2]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillation in the short term. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2][4][5]. Other Products - In the silicon wafer market, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.13 (-0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.43 (-0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.23 (-0.05) yuan/piece [3]. - In the battery cell market, the prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction prices of various components remained stable, such as PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - Two photovoltaic cell renovation projects in Hefei, Anhui, with a total investment of 34,637 million yuan, were publicly announced for environmental assessment [4].
尿素日报:厂内库存节前去库-20260212
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:12
尿素日报 | 2026-02-12 厂内库存节前去库 市场分析 价格与基差:2026-02-11,尿素主力收盘1797元/吨(+12);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1800 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1800元/吨(+0);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1810元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤800元/吨(+0),山东基差:3元 /吨(-12);河南基差:3元/吨(-12);江苏基差:13元/吨(-12);尿素生产利润235元/吨(+0),出口利润1048元/ 吨(-15)。 供应端:截至2026-02-11,企业产能利用率89.14%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为83.47 万吨(-8.38),港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨(+2.10)。 需求端:截至2026-02-11,复合肥产能利用率32.46%(-9.33%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%(-8.50%);尿素企 业预收订单天数11.12日(+2.30)。 厂家春节收单无压力,预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复,供应量增加。需求 端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中,厂家春节收单基本结束。部分淡储货源2月投放10%。复合肥开工 ...
豆一交易清淡看涨浓,花生供需停滞行情稳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean futures market continued to rise, and the market has entered a pre - Spring Festival calm period. With low trading activity, traders are generally optimistic about the future. After the Spring Festival, companies may have a round of concentrated restocking demand, and the bullish sentiment in the market is accumulating due to the tight supply situation [1][2] - The peanut futures market rose and then fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peanut market in major producing areas has basically stagnated, and most processing enterprises have gradually shut down for the holiday. It is expected that the peanut market will remain stable before the festival [3][4][5] Summary by Related Categories Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2605 contract was 4519.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 81, down 20 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: The primary market in the Northeast region had no quotes, and the main producing areas had basically entered the pre - holiday shutdown state. Traders were generally confident about the future market. The prices of standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7970.00 yuan/ton, down 74.00 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1170.00, up 74.00 or - 5.95% from the previous day [3] - **Market News**: The average price of national peanut kernels was basically stable. The procurement price of oil - processing enterprises' raw materials was also stable, and the prices varied according to quality [3]
节前现货市场交投两淡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:11
重要数据 现货方面:LME锌现货升水为-1.50美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至22510元/吨,SMM上 海锌现货升贴水-50元/吨;SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22490元/吨,广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨; 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22500元/吨,天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-12 节前现货市场交投两淡 期货方面:2025-08-14沪锌主力合约开于22600元/吨,收于22480元/吨,较前一交易日-190元/吨,全天交易日成交 78030手,全天交易日持仓80798手,日内价格最高点达到22640元/吨,最低点达到22430元/吨。 库存方面:截至2025-08-14,SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.92万吨,较上期变化1.00万吨。截止2025-08-14,LME 锌库存为77450吨,较上一交易日变化-1025吨。 市场分析 市场进入放假状态交投两淡,几乎无报价,绝对价格波动降低。下游开工明显回落,但季节性表现节奏与往年同 步,并无额外利空表现。矿端方面,国内矿山冶炼厂均进入减产检修周期,冶炼厂采 ...
氧化铝仍存在扰动的可能
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:11
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-12 氧化铝仍存在扰动的可能 重要数据 铝现货方面:SMM数据,华东A00铝价23260元/吨,较上一交易日变化-30元/吨,华东铝现货升贴水-190元/吨, 较上一交易日变化0元/吨;中原A00铝价23160元/吨,现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-290元/吨;佛山 A00铝价录23410元/吨,较上一交易日变化30元/吨,铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化60元/吨至-40元/吨。 铝期货方面:2026-02-11日沪铝主力合约开于23515元/吨,收于23660元/吨,较上一交易日变化115元/吨,最 高价达23700元/吨,最低价达到23460元/吨。全天交易日成交146496手,全天交易日持仓174403手。 库存方面,截止2026-02-11,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存85.7万吨,较上一期变化2.1万吨,仓单库存167566 吨,较上一交易日变化1050吨,LME铝库存485750吨,较上一交易日变化-1225吨。 氧化铝现货价格:2026-02-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨,山东价格录得2555元/吨,河南价格录得 2635元/吨, ...
临近春节假期,铜价持续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 04:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is neutral, and the recommendation for arbitrage is to hold off, while the option strategy is to sell put options [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is decreasing, and the price of precious metals is still volatile. The price of copper is expected to range between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 11, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 101,660 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,180 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 103,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,840 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to par against the current 2602 contract, with an average discount of 50 yuan/ton, a 55 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 101,100 to 101,530 yuan/ton [2] 2. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - In January, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Traders now fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates in July, instead of June as previously expected. There are uncertainties regarding the North American trade agreement due to Trump's potential withdrawal [3] Mine End - Codelco's El Teniente project will have low production for about the next five years after a fatal accident last year. It is expected to produce 301,000 tons of copper this year. In December 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% to 181,400 tons, while Escondida's production decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's production decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons [4] Smelting and Import - The US has built up its largest copper inventory in decades. Traders are shipping copper to the US due to concerns about potential import tariffs. As of February 6, Comex copper inventory was about 534,405 tons, more than five times the level of a year ago. The total US copper reserve is estimated to be about 1 million tons, which can meet about 7 months of demand [5] Consumption - Spot trading was dull yesterday. Downstream enterprises are on holiday and inventory preparation is almost complete, leading to weak demand. The futures spread is in a contango structure, and holders are selling casually. In January 2026, the domestic copper rod production was 107,800 tons, a 3.21% decrease from December, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 54.89%, a 1.83% decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,800 tons to 192,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 12,958 tons to 178,897 tons. On February 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [7]