Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing, consumption is stable, inventory is high, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating. Policy influence needs attention [1][2][3][6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On August 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8805 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 297,619 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,710, a change of 111 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable, with only individual silicon prices in Tianjin rising [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton (-400 yuan/ton). The price decline was due to the approaching end of previously undelivered orders and poor new order reception, prompting monomer plants to cut prices to stimulate downstream enterprises to stock up. Downstream customers made purchases according to production needs [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - With supply growing, consumption stable, high total inventory, and slight fluctuations in spot prices, short - term range trading is recommended. If the market drops significantly, medium - to - long - term hedging by buying at low prices can be considered. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On August 18, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 52,810 yuan/ton and closing at 52,280 yuan/ton, a 1.71% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The main contract's position was 135,517 lots (138,723 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 425,548 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a 3.86% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a 3.60% change), polysilicon weekly output was 29,300.00 tons (-0.30% change), and silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a 0.67% change) [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.34 yuan/piece [3] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. Short - term range trading is recommended, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Group 7: Market Analysis of Battery Cells and Components - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 8: Factors to Monitor - Factors to monitor include the resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in polysilicon enterprise operations, policy disturbances, macro and capital sentiment, and the operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-19 西北招标氧化铝价格环比小幅下滑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20550元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20440元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-130元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20500元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-65元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-18日沪铝主力合约开于20695元/吨，收于20600元/吨，较上一交易日变化-140元/吨， 最高价达20715元/吨，最低价达到20550元/吨。全天交易日成交109366手，全天交易日持仓172995手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-18，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.7万吨，较上一期变化1.9吨，仓单库存65492 吨，较上一交易日变化301吨，LME铝库存479525吨，较上一交易日变化-25吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3230元/吨，山东价格录得3215元/吨，河南价格录得 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with attention on the cost-side crude oil and macro sentiment changes [3] Core Viewpoints - The marginal demand has improved, and attention should be paid to cost-side changes. The most pessimistic period on the demand side has passed, but the market is still affected by factors such as supplier actions and inventory [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Include TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Cover PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Involve toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [24][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - Include the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament and short fiber production and sales, polyester load, and various factory inventory days and operating rates in the downstream [47][49][51] VII. PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, inventory days, profit, and related operating rates and spreads [73][79][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various spreads [86][88][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report The current processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance. However, with relatively stable grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use buy - in - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Trump meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put downward pressure on LME copper prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On August 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,060 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a - 0.14% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. Spot Situation The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a supply - demand game. Shanghai's spot quotes had a premium of 170 - 280 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 225 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,160 - 79,400 yuan/ton. The import window opening brought a profit margin of 200 yuan/ton. Weekend arrivals increased Shanghai's inventory, and imported supplies were sufficient, but domestic copper circulation was still tight, supporting a strong spot premium. It is expected that today's spot premium may decline under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro: The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held on Friday, and Fed Chairman Powell will speak. Due to the resilience of US inflation and the employment market, there are large differences in short - term market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will have difficulty giving clear guidance on the future interest - rate path [3]. - Tariffs: Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods. India's Prime Minister Modi plans to reform the goods and services tax, simplifying four tax brackets to two. The German government said the US must reduce tariffs on European - made cars before finalizing a broader trade agreement [3]. - Mine: Marimaca Copper's new drilling in the Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile expanded the ore body. Codelco requested to restart operations at the El Teniente copper mine's Andes Norte and Diamante mines, and some mines have resumed operations [4]. - Smelting and Import: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to July was 934,046 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Imports in July were 480,000 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase; the cumulative import from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Consumption: Last week, the domestic refined copper rod industry's operating rate rose to 70.61%, a 1.75 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but a 10.31 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. It is expected to rise to 71.79% next week. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate fell to 69.3%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and is expected to further drop to 67.6% next week [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 155,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 938 tons to 25,498 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 133,700 tons, an increase of 8,100 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to use buy - in - hedging on dips in the range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton, but pay attention to the Putin - Trump meeting [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold [8]. - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol (EG) showed a weak consolidation, with the basis moderately strengthening. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$50/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port showed a mixed trend. The overall supply and demand in August - September are both in an increasing trend, with a slight inventory build-up in the balance sheet, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. [1][2] - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. [2] - The supply and demand of EG are both on the rise, with little fundamental contradiction. Under low inventory conditions, attention should be paid to cost changes. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,346 yuan/ton (a change of -23 yuan/ton, or -0.53% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,439 yuan/ton (a change of -19 yuan/ton, or -0.43% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$50/ton (a month - on - month increase of $0/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton). The syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences are provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 53.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main port last week were 14.1 tons, with a slight inventory build - up at the port. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 5.4 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary port are 4.3 tons. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - Wait and see; Inter - commodity - None [5] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bullish; Inter - period - Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices; Inter - commodity - None [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, while the PVC market continues to be weak. The supply of PVC is under pressure, and the demand is sluggish, with a weak supply - demand situation. The caustic soda market has good demand and reduced inventory pressure, but attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and production capacity release [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5054 yuan/ton (+100), the East China basis was - 274 yuan/ton (-120), and the South China basis was - 194 yuan/ton (-130) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 39 yuan/ton (-25), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 231 yuan/ton (+21), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 540 yuan/ton (-51), and the PVC export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (+2.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 32.7 tons (-1.0), the social PVC inventory was 49.3 tons (+1.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 79.21% (+1.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 77.92% (+0.37%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.1 tons (-4.1) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2567 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 58 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 613.78 yuan/ton (+67.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1427.74 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 tons (-2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (-1.00%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.64% (-0.09%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.46% (+2.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 86.04% (+1.07%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: After the previous maintenance, production resumed, and the overall operation rate was at a high level supported by chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remained at a low level, and enterprises maintained rigid procurement. The export orders decreased month - on - month. India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with a general increase of 46 - 52 US dollars/ton in the Chinese mainland compared with the previous level. There is expected to be a rush to export in September, and the export is expected to weaken after September [3] - Inventory: The social PVC inventory continued to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value was high. The warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the pressure of the 09 contract warehouse receipts was large. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream operation rate remained at a high level, and the operation rate in Shandong was also high. However, some local enterprises had device load reduction situations, and combined with the planned maintenance of Wanhua in Yantai, the operation rate may decline slightly in the later period. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [4] - Demand side: The profit of alumina was good, and the operation rate was stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants was lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to continue to rise. The non - aluminum operation rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement was acceptable. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda was restricted, and downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, improving the market sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong were acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreased [4] - Future attention points: Attention should still be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production capacity release rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The subsidy for liquid chlorine increased, and the cost support still exists. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-19 目前铅品种呈现明显供需两弱格局，旺季需求在蓄电池中并无明显体现，不过近期在宏观因素作用下有色板块整 体相对偏强，故目前铅价预计仍将在16,350至17,050间波动。 风险 下游维持刚需采购 铅价偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-18，LME铅现货升水为-43.24美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16675 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化0元/吨至16700元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10175元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-18，沪铅主力合约开于16810元/吨，收于16775元/吨，较前一交易日变化-75元/吨，全天交易日 成交 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable due to continuous auctions of old soybeans by Sinograin and good growth of new - season soybeans in the Northeast. The downstream processing industry has low operating rates, and the summer off - season suppresses demand. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the new soybean listing rhythm and downstream consumption changes [1][2] - For peanuts, before the large - scale listing of new peanuts, the confidence of trading entities is insufficient. The inventory of old peanuts is being consumed, and the supply of new peanuts is limited with high prices. However, downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing rhythm and downstream market acceptance [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 4044.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day. The daily increase was 0.00%. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 256, a change of + 12 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market were stable, with the price of first - class protein 39% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Harbin, Shuangyashan, and Jiamusi at 2.15 yuan/jin, and the price of first - class protein 41% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Qiqihar, Heihe, and Suihua ranging from 2.19 - 2.22 yuan/jin [1] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7810.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 140.00 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 390.00, a change of + 12.00 (+ 3.17%) from the previous day. The domestic peanut market was basically stable, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.20 yuan/jin, and prices in different regions showing small fluctuations [3] Strategy - Neutral [3] Risk - Demand weakening [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal: Sideways [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Steam Coal: No specific strategy provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has declined, and prices are fluctuating. The steel market needs to compress profits to control supply and reconstruct the supply - demand balance, but the cost support is strong, so the price adjustment space is limited. The iron ore supply has increased, but the demand is also resilient, and the long - term supply is still relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply and downstream demand, and attention should be paid to supply recovery and downstream restocking. The steam coal market has a short - term price fluctuation due to supply contraction and long - term supply is in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,419 yuan/ton. The national inventory of building materials was 4.4259 million tons, a 6.08% week - on - week increase, and the national inventory of hot - rolled coils was 1.9654 million tons, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was average, and speculative demand was insufficient. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply through profit compression, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price fluctuated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total port trading volume was 1.003 million tons, a 5.02% week - on - week decrease, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.04 million tons, a 39.71% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 3.599 million tons to 34.066 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 0.947 million tons to 24.766 million tons [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply increased, and the demand was resilient. The port and in - plant inventories increased, and the berthing volume decreased significantly. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction was limited; in the long term, the supply was relatively loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. Coke started the seventh round of price increase. The price of imported Mongolian coking coal was stable at 980 - 1020 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply of coking coal was tight, and some mines had inventory accumulation. The supply of coke increased insufficiently, and the inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to supply recovery, downstream restocking, and macro - policy guidance [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the supply tightened due to concentrated mine overhauls, and the price rose. At ports, the market sentiment declined, and the trading was sluggish. The import coal had a price advantage, and the downstream procurement was active [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply in production areas contracted, and the short - term price fluctuated. In the long term, the supply was in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] - Strategy: No specific strategy provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].