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华龙证券:谷子经济持续高景气 关注IP潮玩及AI应用落地
智通财经网· 2025-07-07 09:02
Group 1: Media Sector Insights - The media sector is experiencing strong growth driven by content cycles, technological empowerment, and new consumption trends [1] - AI is significantly enhancing the efficiency of content production from script creation to marketing, leading to cost reduction and innovation [1] - The media sector's performance from January 2 to June 16, 2025, showed high volatility, with a maximum increase of 27.47% and a maximum decrease of 20.68% during the observed period [1] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - As of June 16, 2025, the media sector's PE ratio (excluding negative values, TTM, overall method) is 27.65 times [1] - The gaming sub-sector has a PE ratio of 26.09 times, the publishing sub-sector 18.79 times, the film sub-sector 48.62 times, and the advertising marketing sub-sector 29.76 times [1] Group 3: Market Growth in Related Sectors - The Chinese millet economy market is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.63% increase from 2023 [2] - The market for the pan-anime and peripheral sectors in China is expected to grow to 597.7 billion yuan in 2024, driven by an increasing audience size [2] - The Chinese trendy toy market is anticipated to reach 76.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [3] Group 4: AI Applications in Entertainment - The global AI interactive toy market is projected to grow from $61.25 billion in 2024 to $120.9 billion by 2031 [4] - 64% of leading gaming companies in China are investing in AIGC [4] - The micro-short drama industry in China is expected to experience explosive growth, reaching 50.4 billion yuan in 2024 and exceeding 68 billion yuan in 2025 [4]
大突破仍需基本面和流动性共振,震荡行情下结构性机会为主
British Securities· 2025-07-07 02:45
Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance with a lack of broad profit-making effects, indicating a structural market environment rather than a comprehensive upward trend [2][17] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend, with structural opportunities arising in sectors supported by performance and policy [2][17] Market Overview - Last Friday, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach a peak of 3497.22 points before a sudden drop, reflecting a clear divergence among indices [2][19] - The banking, insurance, and brokerage sectors showed strong performance, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices lagged behind, indicating a lack of widespread market momentum [2][19] - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations and insufficient economic recovery, leading to a preference for selective investment strategies [2][17] Investment Opportunities - Focus on three main investment lines: 1. Stocks with expected strong mid-year performance as the reporting window opens in July [3][18] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution against speculative investments [3][18] 3. Stocks that have experienced significant declines, particularly in new energy and brokerage sectors, are recommended for opportunistic buying [3][18] Sector Analysis - The banking sector has shown resilience with a rebound after adjustments, driven by low valuations and high dividends, although macroeconomic uncertainties pose challenges [8] - The gaming sector is benefiting from advancements in AI and the growing popularity of short dramas, indicating a positive outlook for the entertainment industry [9] - Cross-border payment and digital currency stocks are experiencing renewed interest following regulatory developments, suggesting potential for future growth [10][11] - The pharmaceutical sector is gaining traction due to supportive government measures for innovative drug development, presenting a favorable investment environment [13] - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar and wind, is expected to see technical rebounds as global demand for clean energy continues to rise [14] - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery with limited downside potential in prices, supported by recent positive PMI data [15] - The brokerage sector is active due to policy support and market reforms, indicating potential for growth in investment banking activities [16]
比Labubu还猛的“碎钞机”,杀出来了
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-03 07:27
Core Insights - Tmall's潮玩 (trendy toys) sector has seen a surprising success story with the game company "叠纸" (Paper Games), whose flagship store "叠纸心意" became the top seller during the first phase of the 618 shopping festival, achieving over 100 million in sales [1][5] - The popularity of叠纸's merchandise is attributed to its strong gaming IPs, particularly the "恋与" (Love and Production) and "暖暖" (Warm Warm) series, which cater primarily to a female audience [2][11] - The surge in sales of叠纸's products reflects a broader trend in the gaming industry, where merchandise has become a significant revenue stream, especially for companies focusing on emotional connections with players [20][23] Company Overview -叠纸 was established in 2013 and has gained recognition in the gaming community, particularly for its female-oriented games [2][3] - The company has released several successful titles, including《恋与制作人》 (Producer of Love), which became a phenomenon in the mobile gaming market [3][11] Sales Performance -叠纸's merchandise sales have shown remarkable growth, moving from sixth place to second in Tmall's潮玩 sales rankings within two years [4] - During the 618 shopping festival,叠纸's store topped the sales charts, surpassing established competitors like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) and米哈游 (miHoYo) [5] Product Strategy -叠纸's merchandise primarily consists of affordable items, with over 70% priced under 60 yuan, and the highest-selling products being low-cost items like 18 yuan figurines and 12 yuan postcards [8][9][10] - The company employs various sales strategies, including pre-sales and limited-time offers, which create urgency among consumers [14][15] Consumer Demographics - The majority of叠纸's user base consists of women, with 87.2% of《恋与深空》 (Love in Space) players being female, and over half being born in the 1990s [11] - Players often exhibit strong emotional attachment to game characters, leading to high demand for related merchandise [12] Market Trends - The gaming merchandise market is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic orders for gaming-related products increasing significantly, indicating a cultural export of "国谷" (national trendy toys) [21] - The trend reflects a shift in consumer behavior from practical to emotional value in toy and merchandise purchases, with a growing interest in collectibles and character-based products [25]
谷子经济千亿级市场,供需两端发力打开远期成长空间
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 08:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the "Guzi" economy, driven by multiple factors on both demand and supply sides, with a projected market size increase from 537 billion yuan in 2017 to 1689 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 17.79% [3][21] - The demand for "Guzi" products is expected to benefit from the rise of emotional consumption and changing consumer attitudes, particularly among younger demographics [12][56] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Consumption Rise and Market Outlook - The "Guzi" economy is positioned within the broader context of the expanding ACGN subculture, which includes animation, comics, games, and related merchandise [12] - The market for the broader "pan-second dimension" and related products is projected to grow from 221.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 597.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.26% [12][19] 2. Demand Side Analysis - The user base for "pan-second dimension" products in China is substantial, with an expected growth to 503 million users by 2024, indicating a strong willingness to purchase "Guzi" products [2][42] - Approximately 88.71% of anime/manga viewers express a willingness to buy "Guzi," with 81.78% having made purchases [45][50] - The average single purchase amount for "Guzi" products is 102 yuan, with consumers increasing their purchase frequency from 2.3 to 2.9 times per month [62][64] - The market penetration in lower-tier cities is still low, presenting opportunities for expansion due to the price advantages of "Guzi" products [68][72] 3. Supply Side Analysis - The "Guzi" economy's supply chain encompasses IP production, authorization, and product sales, with a notable rise in domestic IPs stimulating consumer interest [73][76] - The domestic IP authorization market is growing, with retail sales of authorized products expected to reach 1550.9 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11% [86][90] - The report notes that the sales of domestic IPs have surpassed those of Japanese IPs on platforms like Xianyu, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [80][81]
半年超155家谷店闭店,谷子经济的下一个“救命IP”何时出现?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-01 03:32
Core Viewpoint - The current state of the "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy) is characterized by a significant wave of store closures, particularly among "谷店" (Guzi stores), while the market continues to see new openings, leading to a paradoxical situation of both decline and expansion in the industry [1][3][8]. Group 1: Store Closures - Over the past six months, at least 155 Guzi stores have closed or planned to close, with 755 new stores opening during the same period, indicating a turbulent market environment [3][8]. - The closures are primarily attributed to low profits, high rents, and increased competition, particularly in first-tier and new first-tier cities, which account for 81% of the closures [7][10]. - The majority of the closed stores are personal Guzi stores, making up 55% of the total closures, while chain brands account for 45% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the closures, the number of new store openings surged in the first half of 2025, with May alone seeing a record high of 241 new openings [8][10]. - The rapid expansion of stores has led to increased competition and consumer fatigue, resulting in inventory issues and price reductions among many brands [10][12]. - The decline in popularity of key IPs (Intellectual Properties) that support the Guzi economy has contributed to the current challenges, with significant drops in search interest for major IPs compared to the previous year [12][14]. Group 3: IP Dependency - The Guzi economy heavily relies on the popularity of specific IPs, and the current downturn is linked to a noticeable decline in the heat of these IPs, which were previously driving sales [11][22]. - The industry faces a systemic risk due to over-reliance on a few blockbuster IPs, leading to market volatility and a lack of sustainable growth [22]. - There is a growing need for a diverse ecosystem of IPs with long-term commercial value to stabilize the market and reduce dependency on singular hits [22].
潮玩系列4:全球IP生命周期复盘启示录
2025-06-30 01:02
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global IP (Intellectual Property) lifecycle and its implications for the collectible toy market, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, which are expected to lead global growth with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 17.2% and 20% respectively from 2024 to 2029 [1][5][6]. Market Size and Growth - The global IP derivative market is projected to reach 14 trillion yuan (approximately 2.1 trillion USD) by 2024, with the IP toy market specifically estimated at 525.1 billion yuan (approximately 79.5 billion USD) [1][5]. - China's IP toy market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2%, reaching 167.5 billion yuan (approximately 25.5 billion USD) by 2029 [1][6]. Key Segments in the Market - Major segments in the Chinese market include building and assembly toys (26.8 billion yuan), static dolls (17 billion yuan), and plush toys (14.3 billion yuan) [6]. - There is significant potential for per capita spending on IP toys in China, which is currently 5-7 times lower than in Japan and the United States [6]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies are rapidly emerging in the IP toy market, with six out of the top ten companies being Chinese, including Pop Mart and Blokus [7]. - The industry typically employs a revenue-sharing model with a gross merchandise volume (GMV) share of 5%-8%, while licensing fees account for 10%-15% of listed companies' revenues [7]. Global IP Licensing Market - The global IP licensing market is highly concentrated, with the top five licensors holding approximately 40% market share and the top ten around 50% [8]. - Disney remains the leading player due to its extensive IP portfolio and consistent content output, followed by Warner Bros and Sea World [8]. IP Success Factors - The success of an IP is often attributed to its operational strategies, which can extend its lifecycle and enhance monetization opportunities [2]. - High-value IPs like Pokémon, Hello Kitty, Winnie the Pooh, and Mickey Mouse have generated over 50 billion USD in cumulative revenue, typically requiring over 30 years of history and a diversified commercial system [9]. Disney's IP Strategy - Disney has built a vast IP matrix through both organic growth and acquisitions, owning between 1,000 to 2,000 core IPs [10][17]. - The company has successfully maintained its IP relevance through continuous content updates and strategic partnerships [10][17]. Case Studies of IPs - **Hello Kitty**: Launched in 1974, it has a multi-layered monetization system and has successfully expanded its audience demographics over the years [24][25]. - **Mickey Mouse**: As a cultural icon since the 1930s, it has leveraged merchandise licensing and media adaptations to maintain its influence [26]. - **Pokémon**: Initially launched in 1996, it has seen rapid growth through innovative gaming and media strategies, achieving a GMV of nearly 120 billion USD in recent years [30][31]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the Chinese IP toy market has a promising future, driven by increasing consumer spending and the emergence of local players [6][32]. - Companies like Pop Mart are expected to continue their growth trajectory, supported by a strong IP and product matrix [32][33].
全国的二次元,最想搬到这座城
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-30 00:58
Group 1 - The article highlights the growing popularity of the "Bilibili World" (BW) convention in Shanghai, featuring renowned game producer Hideo Kojima as a guest, which has excited the anime and gaming community [1][2] - In 2024, all 250,000 tickets for the BW convention sold out instantly, indicating a significant demand that exceeded the number of available tickets by hundreds of thousands [2] - Shanghai is increasingly recognized as a "city of anime," with numerous events and themed activities attracting a large number of young people [3][2] Group 2 - The evolution of Shanghai's anime culture can be traced back to the "Wenmiao Animation Street," which transformed from a traditional market into a hub for anime-related products in the late 20th century [4][5] - The renovation of Wenmiao Street in 2021 led to the relocation of many anime shops, which subsequently spread anime culture throughout the city [5][6] - The emergence of anime-themed shopping centers, such as the "Bailian ZX Creative Park," has significantly boosted foot traffic and sales, with the park achieving sales of 300 million yuan and attracting 9.5 million visitors in 2023 [7][8] Group 3 - The transformation of traditional shopping malls into anime-themed spaces has become a trend, with several malls in Shanghai incorporating anime elements to attract customers [8][9] - The rise of the "anime economy" has led to the opening of flagship stores for major brands, enhancing the shopping experience for anime enthusiasts [11][12] - Shanghai's gaming industry is thriving, with major companies like Sony and Nintendo establishing a presence in the city, contributing to its status as a key market for international game developers [11][12] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the integration of anime culture into everyday life in Shanghai, with more people engaging in outdoor activities related to anime, such as cosplay [10][14] - Events like the "Star Rail LIVE" concert demonstrate the strong community engagement and popularity of anime-related activities in the city [15] - The article concludes that anime culture has transitioned from a niche interest to a significant aspect of urban life in Shanghai, reflecting the city's progressive and inclusive nature [18]
这类基金,申报数激增!
中国基金报· 2025-06-29 12:00
Core Viewpoint - In the second quarter, the number of consumer-themed fund applications surged significantly, reflecting a shift in market focus from export-driven growth to domestic demand, supported by favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [1][3][8]. Group 1: Fund Application Trends - The number of consumer-themed funds submitted for approval increased threefold compared to the previous quarter [2]. - As of June 27, 16 consumer-themed funds were submitted since April, with 7 already approved, compared to only 4 in the first three months of the year [4]. - These 16 funds came from 14 different fund management companies, including 8 index funds, 5 mixed funds, 1 stock fund, and 2 QDII funds, with a focus on Hong Kong stock consumption themes [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector has attracted significant attention from institutional investors, leading to a surge in research and analysis of new consumption trends, such as the "Guzi Economy" and pet economy [6][9]. - The consumer sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double-Click" effect, driven by supportive policies, performance improvements, and valuation recovery [7][8]. - The potential for growth in the middle and lower-income consumer segments remains largely untapped, with expectations for increased domestic demand incentives from the government [8][9]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Investment Strategy - The A-share consumer sector has shown signs of divergence, with strong growth in the beauty and personal care industry, while home appliances and food and beverage sectors have underperformed [9]. - In the Hong Kong market, emerging industries such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and jewelry have stood out as highlights in the consumer sector [9].
天元宠物注重品牌形象建设 积极开拓国内外市场
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-06-27 11:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collaboration between Shandong and Zhejiang pet industry associations, focusing on the full industry chain innovation and brand strategy upgrade in the pet industry [2] - The Zhejiang exchange delegation visited leading companies such as Petstar and Tianyuan Pet Products, emphasizing the importance of product display and corporate culture [2] - Tianyuan Pet Products is a comprehensive enterprise specializing in the design, development, production, and sales of pet products, covering a wide range of categories including pet beds, toys, clothing, and food [2] Group 2 - Tianyuan Pet Products is actively expanding its business by investing in R&D, with a professional team that has developed nine product categories and holds over 200 domestic and international patents [3] - The company focuses on the lifestyle habits of pets and the interaction needs between pets and owners, continuously developing innovative products that meet various usage scenarios [3] - Tianyuan Pet has established four production bases globally, utilizing intelligent production lines and a strict quality control system to enhance its core competitiveness [3] Group 3 - The company is expanding its international market presence by leveraging platforms like the Canton Fair, establishing long-term partnerships with well-known international retailers and e-commerce platforms [3] - Tianyuan Pet has a presence in over 100 countries and regions, enhancing its brand influence through local market integration [3] - The company has developed multiple well-known brands such as Petstar and Xiaoshouxing, offering over 30,000 different SKUs to provide competitive pricing and quality products [4] Group 4 - The rapid development of Tianyuan Pet reflects the strategic transformation of China's pet industry from traditional manufacturing to comprehensive services [4] - The company is poised to benefit from new consumption trends and the growing pet economy, indicating a promising opportunity for accelerated growth in the pet industry [4]
00后情绪消费更大方?南都发布情绪经济社会认知度调研报告
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-06-27 08:47
Group 1 - The rise of emotional economy is reshaping consumer behavior, with 64% of Chinese consumers prioritizing emotional satisfaction as their primary need [3][5][11] - The emotional economy is becoming a new economic engine, with significant growth in sectors like trendy toys, pets, and sports, as evidenced by the explosive sales during events like the Tmall 618 shopping festival [3][30] - Over 80% of surveyed consumers reported engaging in emotional consumption in the past year, with preferences varying by age group [6][8][10] Group 2 - Emotional consumption is defined as purchasing behavior aimed at achieving psychological compensation, indicating a shift from functional to emotional-driven consumption [5][10] - The "谷子经济" (Goods economy) market is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 40.63% increase from 2023, driven by the popularity of trendy toys and related products [30][34] - The pet industry is evolving into an emotional compensation system, with Gen Z spending an average of over 1,200 yuan per month on pet-related products and services [34][35] Group 3 - The silver economy is expected to reach a market size of 50 trillion yuan by 2050, driven by the new retired demographic who are financially stable and seeking quality experiences [35][36] - The healing economy is gaining traction, with a projected market value exceeding 240 billion yuan this year, fueled by rising demand for emotional wellness and immersive experiences [37][40] - Emotional marketing is widely accepted, with over 80% of respondents recognizing its influence on purchasing decisions, particularly among younger consumers [22][23]