一、事件背景与核心声明 当地时间6月26日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在停火协议生效后首次发表电视讲话，高调宣布伊朗在与以色列的冲突中取 得"全面胜利"，并批评美国军事干预"徒劳无功"。他表示，伊朗武装力量突破了以色列"先进的多层防御系统"，对其军 事设施和城市造成重大打击，同时通过袭击美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地"狠狠扇了美国一记耳光"。 哈梅内伊强调，美国介入冲突的真实目的是"拯救濒临崩溃的以色列"，但最终"一无所获"，并警告伊朗将继续保留打击 地区美军目标的能力。 二、停火协议的脆弱性与后续博弈 6月24日，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列与伊朗达成全面停火协议，双方分阶段停止军事行动。然而，哈梅内伊的讲话凸显 了停火协议的脆弱性：伊朗议会25日通过法案暂停与国际原子能机构合作，以色列防长卡茨则透露以军曾计划"清除"哈 梅内伊但未成功。此外，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔声称伊朗核计划因空袭"倒退数年"，而哈梅内伊坚称核设施未受 重大影响，双方陷入"罗生门"。 三、市场矛盾心理与技术面承压 尽管哈梅内伊的强硬表态理论上可能提振黄金避险需求，但当前市场更关注停火协议的短期效力。同时技术面上，黄金 日线级别呈现"阴阳交替"的震 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped significantly, with a decline of over $30, as geopolitical risks decreased and market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, calling him "terrible," and indicated he is considering three to four candidates for the Fed chair position, which may affect market confidence in the dollar [1] - Since Trump's presidency, the dollar index has fallen over 11%, despite the Fed not cutting interest rates, raising concerns about Trump's potential impact on the U.S. economy and institutions [1] - Market strategist Peng Cheng noted that while Powell remains in his position, Trump's pressure on the Fed raises doubts about its independence, potentially diminishing trust in the dollar [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, breaking below mid-term moving average support, with a potential short-term rebound expected [1] Oil Market - Oil prices remained stable with minimal fluctuations, but a lack of buying pressure suggests significant upward resistance [2] - Investors should monitor three potential risks: OPEC+ production increase plans, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-EU tariff negotiations [2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with June's output expected to rise by 411,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same increase as May [2] - The IEA forecasts a global oil supply surplus by 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, with positive signals from Iran and Israel regarding conflict resolution [2] - The outlook for U.S.-EU trade negotiations is pessimistic, with the EU preparing for various scenarios, including a potential breakdown in talks, which could negatively impact the global economy [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating a correction from previous declines, with a focus on the $66.60 resistance level [2] Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant increase, forming a breakout from a trading range, with a high probability of reaching new highs in the short term [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates an upward continuation pattern, with attention on the $5 support level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong bullish momentum, but there is a risk of overextension [5] - The 4-hour chart suggests that the structure is nearing completion, with prices being significantly overbought, indicating a potential for a pullback [5] - Short-term focus should be on the resistance level around 40,400 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index showing substantial declines from their peaks, but rebounding strongly since mid-April due to reduced policy uncertainty and expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] - The rebound in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by retail investors and liquidity, with a noted increase in risk appetite as the most pessimistic phase appears to have passed [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the volatility in the U.S. stock market is influenced by the performance of technology stocks, ongoing fiscal and trade deficits, and fluctuating tariff policies, which have all contributed to increased market uncertainty [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt and challenging the high valuations of U.S. stocks [2][3] - The earnings growth of S&P 500 companies has shown resilience, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.5% for 2025, despite downward revisions in profit forecasts [5][6] - Current valuations of U.S. stocks are considered high, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio returning to levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [6]

ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVE 市 市 官 方 网 站 服 热 线 客 需 有 译 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | ...

当前，特朗普总统挥舞的"关税大棒"，正遭遇来自日本、法国、德国等传统盟友的强硬抵抗，贸易谈判纷纷陷入僵局，各国对签协议显得有些"犹豫不决"。 关税谈判陷入僵局 此外，印度和美国在汽车零部件、钢铁和农产品进口关税等问题上存在分歧，双方僵持不下。 离7月9日这一美国政府暂停征收"对等关税"90天的截止期限仅剩十来天，多国与美国的关税谈判仍进展不及预期，这对特朗普政府来说，压力肉眼可见地飙 升。 随着多国对于关税的强硬表态，以及特朗普政府面对国内各阶层的压力，有分析认为，当前特朗普对于关税的态度似乎出现软化，相比此前其激进的政治口 号，目前很多关税条款的细节均可以谈判。 经济形势现隐忧 本周四，WTO（世界贸易组织）发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从今年3月发布的102.8升至103.5，这一指数持续高于基 准点100，表明全球货物贸易仍呈现增长态势。此外，该数字也是2021年8月以来的最高水平。 分析人士称，美国总统特朗普已对进入美国的商品加征关税，并威胁要进一步提高关税，这导致企业提前下订单，以避免额外的成本。 WTO对此也表示，全球商品贸易加速增长，但增长势头可能无法维持。上述WTO ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

Group 1 - International gold prices remained stable, closing at $3327.60 per ounce, with a slight decline of approximately 0.13% [1] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price pullback in recent trading days [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with prices reaching a high of around $3350 before dropping to a low of approximately $3310, indicating a choppy trading environment [2] - The technical outlook suggests a bearish trend in the short term, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact as long as gold does not fall below $3280 [2] - Key price levels to watch include $3355 for resistance and $3300 for support, with a focus on the impact of PCE data on market movements [4] Group 3 - Domestic gold prices showed little movement, fluctuating between gains and losses, with the Shanghai gold price around 775 and other gold products at approximately 768 [5] - There is an expectation for a potential bullish reversal in the gold market, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 785 for other gold products, contingent on maintaining the bullish trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and the impact of tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration [1][3][4] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Spot gold is currently trading around $3,323.28 per ounce, showing slight declines in early Asian trading [1] - On Thursday, spot gold closed at $3,327.60 per ounce, with a minor drop of approximately 0.13% [3] - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price decline in recent trading sessions [3][4] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][4] - Tariff policies may lead to higher inflation expectations, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could exert downward pressure on gold prices [3][4] - Despite the pressures, there is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, with a total of 50 basis points expected by the end of the year, which could support gold prices in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming PCE data will be a critical driver for gold prices; lower-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold, while higher-than-expected inflation may lead to further delays in rate cuts, putting pressure on gold [4] - Long-term factors such as a low-interest-rate environment, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential dollar weakness provide structural support for gold [4] - The speculative interest in platinum and palladium may divert funds away from the gold market, necessitating close monitoring of capital flows within the precious metals sector [4]

新华财经北京6月27日电 美国国债收益率周四（6月26日）继续走低，10年期美债收益率下跌4个基点， 报4.25%；2年期美债收益率跌超6个基点，报3.72%，均创5月2日以来新低。 当天发布的其他数据显示，美国经济面临通胀压力犹存、企业盈利承压、就业市场不稳定以及政策方向 不明的复杂局面。 美国一季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化季环比终值达3.5%，高于预期的3.4%。衡量国内总 购买价格的指数增长3.4%，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数上涨3.7%，核心PCE价格指数同样上涨 3.5%，且均较此前估值有所上调，这意味着物价上涨趋势仍在延续，对投资环境的稳定性形成挑战。 5月耐用品订单数据呈现积极信号，环比初值高达16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅，远超预期值 8.5%。剔除运输设备后，5月份耐用品订单环比增长0.5%，核心资本货物订单（衡量企业设备投资的关 键指标）5月上涨1.7%，均好于预期和前值。 截至6月21日当周，经季节性调整的失业救济金初次申请人数下降1万至23.6万，好于经济学家预期。但 裁员数量有所增加，且招聘活动疲软，导致许多失业者难以找到新工作。截至6月14日当周，续请失 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 26 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3448.45 点；深 证成指跌 0.48%，收报 10343.48 点；创业板指跌 0.66%，收报 2114.43 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15832 亿，较昨 日小幅缩量 196 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 26 日回调整理，收盘 3946.02，环比下跌 14.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1399.0 元，环比上涨 25.3。 6 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 826.8 元，环比上涨 27.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货提降，焦企保持小幅亏损，无主动提产动能，高频数据显示焦企开工下滑，供应收缩。需求， 淡季钢厂铁水产量暂时企稳，上周钢联口径铁水产量周环比小幅回升，炉料日耗有支撑。焦炭供应边际下滑，叠 加真实需求有所好转，焦企库存压力缓解。 客服产品系列•日评 月全球天胶产量料降 1.2%至 104 万吨，较上月增加 35.6%； ...