2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：需求转淡，中期趋势偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油震荡偏强 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货维稳，刚需成交 | 12 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期反弹，中期压力仍偏大 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：日盘偏弱，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差延续上行趋势 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡，中期偏弱 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant recovery of U.S. winter wheat ratings, which have reached a six-year high after starting the season with the "second worst" ratings in history [1] - The market is currently facing dual pressures from strong rainfall threats and record-high export sales, raising questions about future market directions [1] Group 1 - U.S. winter wheat ratings have improved dramatically, indicating a strong recovery in crop conditions [1] - The initial poor ratings at the start of the season highlight the volatility and unpredictability of agricultural markets [1] - The combination of adverse weather conditions and high export sales creates a complex market environment for stakeholders [1]

3. 华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，其中本次收储挂牌竞 价交易1万吨。 4. 路透公布对USDA 6月供需报告中南美农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，巴西2024/2025年度 大豆产量为1.6927亿吨，预估区间介于1.6825-1.71亿吨，USDA此前在5月预估为1.69亿吨。阿根廷 2024/2025年度大豆产量为4904万吨，预估区间介于4800-5000万吨，USDA此前在5月预估为4900万吨。 5. 巴西农业咨询机构AgRural称，截至上周四，巴西中南部主产区的农民已经收割完成1.9%的2025年第 二季玉米作物，较前一周加快0.6个百分点，创下2021年以来同期最慢步伐。去年同期收割率为10%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至6月8日当周， 美国大豆优良率为 68%，市场预期为68%，前一周为67%，上年同期为72%。大豆种植率为90%，低于市场预期的91%，此 前—周为84%，去年同期为86%，五年均值为88%。大豆出苗率为75%，上一周为63%，上年同期为 68%，五年均值为72%。 7. 根据《上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. The methanol futures contract 2509 may show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad are likely to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.80% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 86,900 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, and the general trade inventory was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 0.25%. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The China Warehousing Index was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, about 83,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 5% from April and an increase of about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 435,500, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [8][9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, a slight increase of 0.38% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.81% month - on - month, and a significant increase of 10.55% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9859 million tons, a slight increase of 19,200 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 71,900 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 290,900 tons from the same period last year. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.40%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.03%, a slight decrease of 3.82% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was 87.82%, a slight increase of 3.90% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was 45.09%, a significant increase of 5.30% week - on - week. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.97%, a slight increase of 1.06 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 4.24 percentage points month - on - month. As of June 6, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 133 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 118 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant decrease of 205 yuan/ton month - on - month. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 458,400 tons, a significant increase of 64,000 tons week - on - week, a slight increase of 43,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1,800 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 370,600 tons, a slight increase of 15,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 66,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 22,500 tons from the same period last year [10][11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 461, a slight decrease of 4 rigs week - on - week and a decrease of 35 rigs from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.408 million barrels, a slight increase of 7,000 barrels per day week - on - week and an increase of 308,000 barrels per day year - on - year. - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 436 million barrels, a significant decrease of 4.304 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19.863 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.086 million barrels, a slight increase of 576,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 401.8 million barrels, a slight increase of 509,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.4%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 2.00 percentage points year - on - year. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 167,957 contracts, a slight increase of 2,263 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts or 5.75% from the May average. As of June 3, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 155,519 contracts, a significant increase of 7,688 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts or 14.74% from the May average [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,750 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,725 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | -75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | 2,277 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +63 yuan/ton | -13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 474.3 yuan/barrel | +8.2 yuan/barrel | -23.6 yuan/barrel | -8.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [17][30][43].

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/06/09 | 2025/06/06 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2507 （主力） | 3488 | 3509 | -21 | -0.60% | | BU2508 | 3505 | 3488 | 17 | 0.49% | | BU2509 | 3488 | 3445 | 43 | 1.25% | | SC2507 | 474.3 | 466.1 | 8.2 | 1.76% | | Brent首行 | 65.62 | 65.20 | 0.4 | 0.64% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 151.76% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 26.4 | 10.7 | 15.7 | 147.32% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 91510 | 91510 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU07-08 | (17.0 ...

期货热点追踪 MPOB月报公布前市场"按兵不动"，棕榈油酝酿大行情？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 市场多空因素交织，铁矿石期价走低，未来需关注哪些方面？ 相关链接 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13495 | 135 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19740 | 110 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -32615 | -26520 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 159 | -105 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 538461 | 7811 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 14414 | 1822 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10835 | -35 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | /吨) 现货市场 | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 14620 | 59 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) | 20300 | 0 | | | | 13695 | 49 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: June 9 - 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. Last week, the market showed a volatile and weak trend. The domestic soda ash production capacity has gradually recovered, with an operating rate of 80.76%. The inventory of heavy - soda ash increased by 3.10 million tons to 83.7 million tons, while the inventory of light - soda ash slightly decreased to 79 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the market trading activity is low. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The soda ash price was weakly operating last week. The supply increased due to the resumption of production after maintenance, the demand was weak, and the inventory was still at a high level. The overall supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was expected to continue, and the price was in a volatile state. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The soda ash futures market showed a volatile and weak trend last week. The supply remained high, the downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the supply - demand pattern was loose. The price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes soda ash开工率, production, light - soda ash inventory, heavy - soda ash inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Market Trend: The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the 5mm float glass market in China continued to decline, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the competition is intensifying. The futures market also showed a volatile and downward trend. The supply of production lines resumed, the demand was affected by the off - season and rainfall, and the inventory reached a high level this year. Although the raw material price rebound drove a short - term rise, the upward momentum was insufficient. The float glass is expected to run in a volatile state [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The float glass price hit a new low after volatility last week. The actual cold - repair effect was less than expected, the supply growth trend still existed, and the demand - side orders decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand weak fundamentals were difficult to change in the short term. The glass 2509 was expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The 5mm float glass market in China declined last week, with prices falling in various regions. The demand recovery is slow, the supply is loose, and the futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The glass 2509 is expected to run in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - The data includes float glass production, operating rate, production cost and profit of the natural - gas - fueled float process, basis, and ending inventory [36][40][43] 4. Variety Diagnosis - The main funds show that the long - short flow is 99.0 (the main force is strongly bullish), the capital energy is - 69.0 (the capital outflow amplitude is large), and the long - short divergence is 93.3 (the risk of market reversal is high) [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].