Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from uncertainties related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reaching a historical high of $3602.4 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.51%, closing at $3599.5 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.49%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.61% [1] Group 2: Drivers of Price Movement - The current rise in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks [1] - The shift to a "dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve Chairman has heightened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been amplified by President Trump's attempts to exert control through personnel changes, increasing the appeal of precious metals as a safe haven [1] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to classify silver as a critical mineral has raised tariff concerns, contributing to strong performance in the silver market [1]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant increase in equity assets while bond market sentiment was suppressed, leading to a steepening yield curve with long-term yields rising sharply [1] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields were recorded at 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of -1.53, 6.12, 13.35, and 19.25 basis points compared to the end of July [1] - The "stock-bond" effect has shifted to a "double bull" market due to rising interest rate cut expectations and improved economic conditions, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.8% [1] Group 2 - The funding environment remained reasonably ample, with short-term performance expected to be relatively stable as the central bank continued to support liquidity [2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and maintained flexible short-term liquidity tools [2] - Government bond issuance has progressed rapidly, with net issuance of 4.67 trillion yuan in national bonds and 5.7 trillion yuan in local bonds by the end of August, leading to a decrease in net financing impact on the funding environment [2] Group 3 - The stock market showed strong performance driven by low interest rates and a significant inflow of funds, with a notable increase in financing balances and daily trading volumes [3] - The "anti-involution" narrative has gained traction, with the PMI raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The bond market's long-end is under pressure due to the steepening yield curve and improved trading sentiment, suggesting a return to a range-bound trend in the absence of significant changes in funding and economic fundamentals [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly due to rising risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, reaching historical highs and maintaining bullish momentum, although caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks [1][3]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3475.85 per ounce, peaked at $3508 before retreating, then fluctuated to a low of $3470.17, and ultimately closed at $3533.15, marking a daily increase of $57.3 or 1.65% [3]. - The price is expected to face resistance around $3500, with potential support levels at $3450 or $3400 for re-entry opportunities [1][10]. Market Outlook - The market is anticipating U.S. economic data releases, including July JOLTs job openings and factory orders, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5]. - Trump's announcement regarding tariffs could impact gold prices significantly, with potential pullbacks if the appeals are rejected, while a favorable outcome could maintain bullish trends [6]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates that gold has successfully tested the midline support and is poised for further upward movement, with bullish prospects strengthened by the widening Bollinger Bands [8]. - The daily chart shows that gold has encountered resistance near $3535, and if it fails to close above this level, a period of consolidation or pullback may occur, although the overall bullish trend remains intact [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3500 and $3480, while resistance levels are at $3545 and $3575 [11].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce, with an intraday peak above $3600. COMEX silver futures increased by 0.01% to $41.73 per ounce. Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are likely to enter a new upward trend, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce [1][2][17] - The recent actions of President Trump attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve officials have caused market unease regarding the independence of the Fed. The US Geological Survey has proposed including silver and other minerals in the 2025 critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential import tariffs on silver. The dovish stance of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further supporting precious metals [2][17] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. The overall market for gold and silver is expected to remain strong as the Fed approaches a potential rate cut and amid Trump's interference with the Fed's independence [2][17] Group 2: Stock Indices - The three major US stock indices experienced declines, with small-cap stocks showing significant pullbacks. The banking sector led gains while the communication sector lagged. The market turnover reached 2.91 trillion yuan. As of September 1, the financing balance increased by 35.36 billion yuan to 2.280829 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the second half of the year [3][9] - The current market is in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, indicating a high probability of continued market performance. However, investors should adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Indices with a higher proportion of technology growth stocks, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are more aggressive and volatile, while indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are more defensive, may have relatively weaker price elasticity [3][9] Group 3: Copper and Other Metals - Copper prices rose in the overnight session, driven by tight supply of concentrates and high growth in smelting output. The National Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the electricity sector, with significant increases in photovoltaic installations. However, the automotive and home appliance sectors are showing signs of slowing growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors [3][18] - Zinc prices also increased overnight, with processing fees for zinc concentrates recovering and smelting profits turning positive. However, the construction investment growth remains weak, and the overall supply-demand balance may tilt towards surplus in the short term, leading to potential weakness in zinc prices [3][19]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82% [3] - Major European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down by 2.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.87%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.42% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.47% to 25,496.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.22% to 5,728.46 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 328.12 billion [4] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component down by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.85%, with a total turnover of CNY 2.87 trillion [5] Group 2 - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 24% year-on-year in August, reaching 1.3 million units [11] - The gold price reached a new historical high, closing at USD 3,533.43 per ounce, up by 1.64% [6] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.46% to USD 65.37 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.38% to USD 69 per barrel [6] - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong faced significant declines, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC dropping over 4% and 5% respectively [4]

亚洲交易时段周二（9月2日），现货黄金突破3500美元关口，最高触及3504.5美元/盎司，日内涨幅约 0.8%，再度刷新历史纪录。 金价延续上周2.3%的涨势，分析师认为，市场对美联储独立性及政策稳定性的担忧叠加降息预期，推 动投资者加码避险资产。 上周五，美国联邦法院就总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）一案举行紧急听证，但未 作出即时裁决，法官表示至少要推迟至本周二再做决定。这一案件被视为美联储独立性的历史性考验。 市场人士普遍认为，如果美联储决策受制于政治压力，政策框架稳定性将被削弱，美元与美债的吸引力 受损，间接利好黄金。 "金价上涨反映出市场对制度稳定的忧虑。"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）表 示，"黄金延续上周五的强劲涨势，主要受到美国通胀持续走高、消费者情绪疲软、降息预期以及对美 联储独立性的担忧等因素支撑。" 与此同时，美国上诉法院在另一案件中裁定大多数特朗普关税非法，政策不确定性进一步加剧。分析人 士认为，贸易规则的摇摆放大了市场的不安情绪，投资者寻求避险资产作为对冲。 美国经济数据同样为金价提供支持。上周五公布的数据显示，美国7月个人消费支 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, both risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a significant rise in gold prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, and Thailand - Cambodia, along with Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, boosted gold prices [2]. - This week (the week of September 1st), gold prices are expected to remain at a high level. The anticipated weakness in the US August non - farm payrolls report and continued geopolitical risks will support gold prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On August 29th, the Shanghai gold futures price recovered by 1.52% to 785.12 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.89% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce. Gold T + D spot price increased 1.31% to 781.70 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.24% to 3446.81 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - **Gold Basis**: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 46.35 dollars/ounce, down 7.00 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.30 yuan/gram, down 1.01 yuan/gram [8]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 22.25 yuan/gram, lower than the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio increased, the gold - silver ratio decreased, and the gold - copper ratio rose [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Gold ETF holdings increased. The SPRD gold ETF fund's holdings reached 977.68 tons, up 20.91 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume increased by 27.25%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' net long positions increased, and COMEX gold futures inventory and SHFE gold inventory rose [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data**: Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, which may lead to a constitutional crisis. US July durable goods orders were - 2.8% month - on - month, and core capital goods orders had the fastest growth in nearly three years. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%. US July core PCE price index increased year - on - year [19][20][21]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: Richmond Fed President Barkin expected only minor interest rate adjustments. Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and expected further cuts in the next three to six months. San Francisco Fed President Daly hinted at a rate cut soon [30]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index rose slightly last week. Geopolitical conflicts drove it up on Monday, but Trump's move and weak economic data caused it to fall later. It ended up 0.13% at 97.85 [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield declined slightly due to Trump's move and dovish Fed statements. It was down 3bp to 1.82% [33]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations were deadlocked. Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Russia launched an attack on Kiev while still expressing willingness for peace talks [36].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 氧化铝现货成交快速回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20490元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-160元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20570元/吨，较上一交易日变化-100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-01日沪铝主力合约开于20745元/吨，收于20645元/吨，较上一交易日变化-85元/吨，最 高价达20780元/吨，最低价达到20585元/吨。全天交易日成交158586手，全天交易日持仓221179手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-01，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.3万吨，较上一期变化0.3吨，仓单库存58529 吨，较上一交易日变化-100吨，LME铝库存481050吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-01SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得3150元/吨，河南价格录得 3190元/吨，广西价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the bullish sentiment surrounding gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties in Europe [1][2]. - As of August 29, the largest gold ETF's holdings reached 977.68 tons, an increase of 9.74 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative net increase of 24.6 tons for the month [1]. - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with some analysts suggesting a potential aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1]. Group 2 - The recent ruling by a U.S. appeals court declaring the Trump-era tariff policy illegal has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, further pressuring the dollar and benefiting gold [1]. - The upcoming U.S. employment report is crucial, with expectations of a 75,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [1]. - Gold prices closed at $3,476.28 per ounce, marking the highest level since April 22, with trading ranges between $3,437.01 and $3,489.95 [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a stair-step upward movement in gold prices, with strong buying pressure and no short signals appearing recently [4]. - Key support levels to watch are $3,450 and $3,438 per ounce, with potential for a pullback if prices decline [4]. - The next significant resistance level is around $3,530 per ounce, contingent on the upcoming non-farm payroll data [4].

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving risk-averse sentiment, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The U.S. stock index futures are declining, with the Dow futures down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.14% [2] - European stocks opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.04%, DAX down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 down 0.25%, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and silver reaching a 14-year high, driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [2] - The Japanese 10-year government bond auction showed strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since October 2023, leading to a decrease in yields [2] - Crude oil prices have increased, with Brent crude rising by 0.57% to $68.52 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.59% to $64.99 per barrel [2]