服告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠、但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性仪任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需 兜 页 器官行列体本根告中的任何意见或避议是否符合其特定状况。据此投资、责任目负、本报告似向待定客户推进、来验回复期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及内第三方传播时行为功的成为国贸朗普的使题 声 明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITC 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | ...

农产品早报 2025-06-23 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，国内豆粕期货偏强震荡，因贸易战未解除 9 月以后买 船成本上升，且市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠加美豆估值略低，远月豆粕合约有所支 撑，进而带动现货。周末国内豆粕现货稳中下调 10-20 元/吨，华东低价报 2900 元/吨。上周国内豆粕成 交较好，提货达历史同期高位，饲料企业库存天数也环比增加至历史中性水平，观察后续压榨提货进度。 本周 MYSTEEL 预估大豆压榨量达 251.53 万吨，上周压榨大豆 238.42 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 6000 points for about two weeks, closing at 5967.84 points, with a weekly decline of 0.15% [1] - The Nasdaq index closed at 19447.41 points, down 0.51%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.08% to 42206.82 points [1] - The overall market performance indicates a mixed trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing slight declines while the Dow Jones experienced a minor increase [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2] - Fed officials project two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with inflation expected to rise to 3% and unemployment to 4.5% by that time [2] - The Fed's stance reflects concerns over worsening inflation and economic growth slowing to 1.4% [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, may increase market volatility [1][4] - RBC warns that the S&P 500 could drop to a range of 4800 to 5200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to these tensions [4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are leading to a cautious outlook for the S&P 500 index [5] Group 4: Global Market Outlook - A shift in investment sentiment is noted, with a majority of fund managers believing international markets will outperform U.S. markets over the next five years [5][6] - The potential for a global recession due to trade wars is highlighted as a significant risk, with 47% of fund managers identifying it as a major concern [5] - The current market environment presents opportunities for diversifying investments across different regions and asset classes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian government is implementing measures to support its domestic steel and aluminum industries in response to U.S. tariffs and trade policies, including adjusting retaliatory tariffs and promoting local procurement for federal projects [1][4][8]. Group 1: Government Measures - Canada will adjust retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports effective July 21, aligning with broader trade arrangements [1][4]. - Federal projects in Canada will be required to use Canadian suppliers starting June 30, ensuring that steel and aluminum come from reliable trade partners [4][8]. - A working group will be established to monitor the steel and aluminum market under the new tariff regime [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Housing Initiatives - The Canadian government aims to increase housing completions to 500,000 units annually over the next decade to address housing issues [4]. - A series of infrastructure projects are being announced, with expedited legislative processes for projects deemed in the national interest, including ports, railways, and power transmission systems [4]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Impact - Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S., with imports valued at $147.3 billion in 2024 [7]. - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum starting March 12, leading Canada to retaliate with tariffs on $12.6 billion of steel and $3 billion of aluminum [7][8]. - New tariff quotas will be set for steel products from non-free trade agreement countries, maintaining levels consistent with 2024 [8]. Group 4: Industry Reactions - The Canadian Steel Producers Association and the United Steelworkers Union expressed that the government's measures do not fully meet the industry's needs and will continue to work with the federal government for a suitable plan [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a ban targeting Huawei's Ascend 910 chip, signaling an intention to cut off China's AI industry's supply chain, which is seen as a direct attack on a critical sector [1][3] - Following the U.S. ban, Taiwan quickly added Huawei and SMIC to its own entity control list, indicating a coordinated effort to suppress China's technological advancements [1][3] - Taiwan's semiconductor industry, while strong, is vulnerable due to its reliance on external supplies, such as lithography machines from the Netherlands and chemical materials from Japan [7][9] Group 2 - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is highlighted, with China exporting over 6,000 tons of rare earths to Taiwan in 2024, essential for various high-tech applications [13][25] - Taiwan's potential role as a "transit point" for rare earths, where it could purchase low-cost materials from China and sell them at a premium to the U.S., raises concerns about its strategic position [23][25] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may force Taiwan to reconsider its alignment with the U.S. if it jeopardizes its own industrial base and economic stability [27][28]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.20」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体下跌，主力合约EC2508收跌10.66%，远月合约收跌6-9%不等，贸易不确定性 为核心因素，加征关税所带来的负面影响仍未改善。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1697.63，较上周回升74.82点， 环比上行4.6%。美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时 间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美联储6月如维持利率不变，并且维持了今年降息两次的预期，2026年预计仅 将降息25个基点，降息步伐略微放缓，且主席鲍威尔表示，联储预计未来几个月将出现"相当高的通胀"。并且美联 储此前公布的"褐皮书"显示，美国经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价 压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。地缘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Israel - Iran conflict may support precious metal prices, but factors like potential trade improvement could suppress gold prices, so gold prices are expected to remain range - bound. Silver prices may continue to rise due to the conflict boosting inflation expectations and the improvement of commodity risk preferences, but the repair of the gold - silver ratio is relatively reasonable, and silver prices need to be cautious about the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3]. - In the long - term, against the background of the trade war, the US economy faces a downward risk, the Fed may cut interest rates, and with global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. The strategy is to allocate more on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Precious Metal Prices**: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, London gold spot decreased by 0.1%, London silver spot increased by 2.1%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.1%, COMEX silver increased by 2.1%, AU2508 remained unchanged, AG2508 increased by 0.0%, AU (T + D) remained unchanged, and AG (T + D) increased by 1.9% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 551.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread changed by 99.1%, the gold internal - external price spread changed by 4.9%, the silver internal - external price spread changed by - 2.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio remained unchanged, the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed by - 9.7%, AU2512 - 2508 remained unchanged, and AG2512 - 2508 remained unchanged [3]. - **Position Data**: As of June 17, 2025, compared with June 16, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.27%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.95%, the COMEX gold non - commercial net long position decreased by 0.23%, the COMEX silver non - commercial long position increased by 3.92%, the COMEX silver non - commercial short position decreased by 12.58%, the COMEX silver non - commercial net long position increased by 0.43%, the COMEX silver non - commercial long - term position decreased by 0.40%, and the COMEX silver non - commercial short - term position increased by 9.68% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, SHFE gold inventory decreased by 0.05%, SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.15%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.03%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.19% [3]. - **Other Market Data**: On June 18, 2025, compared with June 17, the dollar/yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the dollar index increased by 0.69%, the US 2 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.76%, the US 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.57%, the VIX increased by 13.03%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.84%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 3.16% [3]. Market News and Events - On June 17, local time, Israel's war - reduction affairs minister Ron Dermer said that Israel had destroyed Iran's uranium enrichment facilities and would continue to act. Trump claimed to have full control of Iran's airspace and warned Iran to "unconditionally surrender." On June 18, Khamenei said that Iran would not surrender, and any US strike would have irreversible consequences. Also, at least three Iranian military aircraft landed in Oman, and Oman is mediating the nuclear - agreement consultations between Iran and the US [3]. - In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 14 was 245,000, a slight decline, remaining near an 8 - month high. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 1.945 million, higher than expected but with a slight decline from the previous value [3]. Market Trends - **Short - term**: Gold prices are expected to remain range - bound, and silver prices may continue to rise but need to be cautious about the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3]. - **Long - term**: The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to allocate more on dips [3].

惠誉评级：亚太地区多家银行业展望因贸易战风险而走弱。 ...

Group 1 - Steve Eisman warns that a failure in tariff negotiations could lead to a global recession, emphasizing that tariffs are the "only real risk" in the current market [1] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that 47% of fund managers view a recession triggered by a trade war as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [1] - Despite improved trade relations between the US and the UK, the EU remains a significant challenge in the trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - Eisman compares the current trade environment to the situation before World War I, suggesting that while no one desires a trade war, it could still occur [2] - The complexity of negotiations with the EU is highlighted, with Eisman describing it as "managing a group of cats" due to the need to balance agendas among 27 member states [2] - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warns that the Trump administration may become overconfident due to previous negotiation progress, potentially leading to unrealistic demands in EU talks [2]

金十数据6月19日讯，爱尔兰央行连续第二个季度下调经济前景，地缘政治不确定性加剧，给这个开放 的小经济体带来压力。根据爱尔兰央行的季度经济公报，修正后的国内需求（MDD）目前预计到2025 年将增长2%，到2026年平均增长2.1%，上个季度的预测分别为2.7%和2.4%。该指标比GDP更准确的衡 量爱尔兰经济增长。预测下修正描绘了一幅新的图景，即美国总统特朗普的贸易战可能对爱尔兰的经济 模式造成极度不利的影响。该国财政严重依赖苹果(AAPL.O)和辉瑞(PFE.N)等美国跨国公司的外国直接 投资，而这些公司受到全球贸易波动的影响。 不确定性加剧 爱尔兰央行再次下调经济预期 ...