Market Trends - On December 18, coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly, with the near-month contract JM2601 rising by 4.69%, the main contract JM2605 increasing by 6.07%, and the main coke contract J2601 up by 5.39% [2] Fundamental Data Supply Side - This week, the output of premium coal and raw coal from sample mines was 757,500 tons and 1,927,000 tons, respectively, showing a slight increase. The operating rate of premium coal mines rose by 1.31% to 86.62% [5] - The average daily output of premium coal from sample washing plants was 272,900 tons, a slight decrease of 630 tons [6] - The average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.16%, both showing a slight decline [6] Demand Side - The average daily output of molten iron from sample steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2,292,000 tons, with a slight decline in blast furnace capacity utilization [6] - The profitability of sample steel mills was reported at 35.93%, which has decreased again [6] Inventory - The inventory of premium coal at sample mines was 2,727,700 tons, showing a slight increase of 174,600 tons [6] - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants was 10,373,000 tons, with an available days inventory of 12.19 days, both showing a slight increase [6] Market Sentiment - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is attributed more to market sentiment and short-sellers taking profits rather than fundamental improvements [7] - The expectation of high-quality coking coal supply tightening is driven by the new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [8] - Despite the rebound, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to the potential for weak demand and the impact of imported coal [9][10]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend with a structural supply - demand gap in 2026, and the idea is to buy on dips, with a price range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2]. - Zinc prices may not fall deeply due to a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [8]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are generally weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies considering the Indonesian policy's price - supporting motivation [12]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. - Tin prices have shown marginal weakening signs in the short term, with potential large fluctuations in case of a macro - level systemic correction. It can be a long - term long - allocation in the first half of 2026, but attention should be paid to correction risks [19]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell on Friday night. Global inventory distribution is uneven, and low - inventory areas in the US may face more pressure. In China, there is a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: With the continuous loose overseas liquidity, the idea is to buy on dips, and the price in December is expected to be in the range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 120 yuan. The domestic alumina price decreased by 2 yuan, and the import price remained unchanged. The LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the cancelled warrants increased by 6,675 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The expectation of interest rate cuts affected the market, and terminal demand was lower than expected. Aluminum prices showed two significant corrections this week. Short - term apparent demand is good, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from 163 US dollars to 90.6 US dollars. The domestic zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC is declining rapidly. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was put into production, and multiple smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average, but US zinc imports have increased recently [5]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 250 yuan, and the Jinchuan premium increased by 650 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has a price - supporting motivation [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production is at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,875, and the cancelled warrants decreased by 1,375 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is at a high level, and the secondary lead production has recovered. The battery demand is expected to weaken, but downstream restocking provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The domestic inventory increased by about 600 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin ore processing fee is at a low level. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices stimulate inventory exports. Demand is mainly rigid, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened [19]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of excessive supply growth, and the fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. In the medium - to - long term, demand determines the upside space, but attention should be paid to correction risks in 2026 [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of 421 - grade Yunnan, Sichuan, 553 - grade East China, and Tianjin decreased by 105 yuan, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and some silicon plants in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will have periodic maintenance. The supply and demand in December are expected to be balanced [22]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 1,200 yuan and 1,100 yuan respectively. The basis of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 6,820 yuan and increased by 1,200 yuan respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 350 [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: Ningde's resumption of production is less than expected. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the upstream inventory is being depleted. Downstream demand is strong at low prices but weakens at high prices [24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term pattern is one of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for asphalt is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2950.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 2.06% during the day [1] - As of December 15, the total inventory of asphalt in 104 social warehouses in China is 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% compared to December 11 [1] - The comprehensive profit for asphalt as of December 15 is -354 CNY/ton, which has increased by 0.52 CNY/ton on a month-over-month basis [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the current peak season for asphalt is not performing beyond expectations, and attention should be paid to winter storage conditions and potential price adjustments by refineries [1] - Newhu Futures reports that some major refineries in Shandong have released winter storage contracts at prices between 2900-2920 CNY/ton, with increased supply in both northern and southern markets [2] - The short-term price outlook for asphalt futures is expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by winter storage prices and crude oil prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪高涨 聚焦资金博弈与供需边际 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约 LC2605 较上一交易日上涨 3.42%至 10.16 万元/吨，成交和持仓量持续放量，主力净空格局延续，资金博弈加剧价格 波动，盘面价格中心持续上移。截至收盘，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 95，150 元/吨，主力合约基差扩大至-6，450 元/吨，期现背离加剧。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2 ...

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 15 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场认为美联储主席鲍威尔的评论和 政策声明不如预期鹰派，这增强了美元抛售势头。由于通胀趋势和劳动力 市场的强劲程度仍不明朗，市场对明年美国货币政策的走向面临不确定性。 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存表现反复 年底消费分化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, supported by a tight supply - demand balance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - **Market Situation**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Sentiment**: Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract LC2605 broke through 100,000 yuan/ton and then fell back, closing at 97,720 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. The market's long - term expectation for lithium carbonate is stronger than the spot fundamentals, and market trading activity continues [1] - **Supply Side**: The average prices of spodumene and lepidolite increased by 1% week - on - week, and the cost support at the raw material end continues to strengthen. The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate is 51.29%, remaining basically stable, and the weekly output is 21,998 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week. Supply is steadily increasing with the release of new production lines [2] - **Demand Side**: The weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will raise processing fees in 2026. In November, the domestic power battery loading volume was 93.5 GWh, a 11.2% increase from the previous month, which offsets some of the off - season effects [2] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 11, the weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased by 2,100 tons to 111,600 tons, remaining in a state of decline, and the low - inventory pattern supports prices [2] - **Macro Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan support the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. Overseas resource and restart news have disturbed the market. The price center moves upward due to tight supply - demand balance and policy benefits, and the price fluctuates due to the game between long and short positions [3]