Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...

Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export market, particularly focusing on the "rush to export" phenomenon and its potential continuation or conclusion in light of recent trade dynamics and economic conditions [2][3][4]. Export Performance - In January-February, China's dollar-denominated exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from 9.9% in the previous quarter, primarily due to temporary factors such as fewer working days and the early timing of the Spring Festival [2][3]. - Exports to Russia, South Korea, and Africa decreased by 10.9%, 2.6%, and 0.2% respectively, while exports to the U.S. and transshipment trade remained relatively strong [3]. "Rush to Export" Analysis - The article questions whether the "rush to export" has ended and explores its potential duration. Historical context from 2018-2019 indicates that the onset of trade tensions led to significant export activity as U.S. companies sought to stockpile goods [6][11]. - The current "rush to export" is expected to be shorter and less intense than in previous trade conflicts, with an estimated duration of around 6 months due to higher initial inventory levels and rapid implementation of tariffs [11][12]. Inventory Dynamics - The article highlights that the passive inventory replenishment observed in U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers is influenced by the current economic climate, with certain sectors like electrical and electronic products showing significant room for inventory buildup [12][13]. - The inventory-to-sales ratios for various durable goods indicate that while some sectors are experiencing high sales growth, their inventory levels are relatively low, suggesting ongoing demand for exports from China [13]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that China's export growth may rebound after temporary factors subside, with expectations of sustained resilience in export performance through the first half of the year [4][10]. - However, potential risks such as further tariff increases or unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy could impact future export trends [11].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金升、铜涨、原油震荡。 内需： 节后服务消费持续降温；商品消费分化，地产新房升，二手落；乘用车走弱。 ①地产销量增速分化。剔除春节效应，42城新房销量增速回升，一二线是主要动力；19城二手房销量增 速所有线级均有回落。 ②节后服务消费热度下降，乐园客流和酒店营收呈现磨底态势，随着天气升温，踏春潮有望带动休闲娱 乐需求回升。 外需： 2月主要经济体制造业PMI多数上升，义乌小商品出口价格抬升，考虑到抢出口和去年基数走低 等因素助力，出口或将回升。本周，特朗普对我国额外再加征10%关税。 生产： 挖机销量大幅上行，行业整体开工率不及去年。 ①用工市场供需逐渐平衡。本周制造业用工量价双双下行，全市场新增招聘帖数有所下降。 ②多数行业开工率仍不及去年。本周样本钢厂产量下行，PTA产业链负荷率下降，不过，水泥价格有所 回升，"抢出口"效应下，三大货运量增速多数上行。 ③二手挖掘机海外出口量增长，带来国内新机替代率大幅提升，1-2月挖掘机销量增速显著回升。 物价： 本周国际金、铜价格回升，原油下降。国内钢铁、煤炭价格回落，水泥续升。 ①本周美联储降息预期抬升，美元走弱共同利好大宗商品 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信SuperSummerSnow） 事项 以美元计价， 1-2 月出口同比 2.3% ，低于彭博一致预期 5.9% ，去年 12 月同比 10.7% 。 1-2 月进口同比 -8.4% ，大幅低于彭博一致预期 1% ，去年 12 月进口同 比 1.0% 。 核心观点 5、进口同比偏低，一方面或反映内需偏弱，但另一方面从环比来看，1-2月平均环比较历史同期均值低约2.5%-2.9%，考虑到去年12月进口环比高出历史同期 3.1%-4.5%，可能一定程度上反映"抢进口"效应的消退。 1 、今年前两个月出口同比读数的大幅下滑，受基数影响或较大（去年 1-2 月环比较历史同期高出约 10% ），环比表现不弱， 比历史同期均值还高出 1.7%-3.3% ，特别是考虑到去年 12 月环比已经较历史同期"超涨" 1.7% 。从这个角度出发，今年 1-2 月或仍有"抢出口"的支撑。 2 、 拆分重点区域环比表现来看， 最近三个月（ 2024 年 12 月 - 今年 2 月），"抢出口"效应或额外拉动月均出口 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in exports in January-February is primarily attributed to the end of the "export rush" rather than weak external demand, with the Spring Festival misalignment having a lesser impact [2][10][11] Export Data Analysis - January-February exports decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to December, dropping to 2.3%, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment, which is estimated to have reduced the growth rate by approximately 1.5 percentage points [2][10][11] - The end of the "export rush" is more pronounced, particularly in exports to the U.S., which fell by 12.5 percentage points to 3.2%, and to emerging markets, indicating a slowdown in the restructuring of overseas supply chains [2][11][12] - Specific categories that experienced significant declines include high-dependence goods like footwear, which saw a drop of 18.0 percentage points to -18.7%, and general machinery, which fell by 30.6 percentage points to -1.6% [3][12][16] Import Data Analysis - Imports in January-February saw a substantial decline of 9.4 percentage points to -8.4%, primarily due to a drop in both processing trade-related electromechanical products and bulk commodities reflecting weak domestic demand [7][18] - Electromechanical product imports rebounded slightly but were still negatively impacted by integrated circuits, which fell by 7.3 percentage points to 2.3% [18] Future Outlook - The Spring Festival misalignment is expected to continue affecting year-on-year growth rates, with a potential rebound in March exports estimated to increase by 6.6 percentage points due to this effect, outweighing the negative impacts from the end of the "export rush" and tariff imposition [4][14] - However, actual exports in March may still face significant pressure when excluding the Spring Festival effect [5][14] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable divergence in export performance across different categories, with consumer electronics like mobile phones and integrated circuits showing recovery, while textiles and furniture exports have significantly declined [15][16] - Capital goods exports have generally decreased, with notable declines in general machinery and automotive parts, while some intermediate goods like fertilizers have shown a rebound [16]