Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel price is not highly valued but lacks upward momentum. Considering the accumulation of iron element inventory, the price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. It is recommended to take a short - position in unilateral operations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. The iron element chain has the basis for negative feedback, and going long is not recommended. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be continued, but beware of the resumption of coal mine production for supply guarantee [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, unchanged in North and South China. Futures contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 increased by 5, 5, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, unchanged in South China. Futures contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 increased by 5, 2, and 2 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, plate billet price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 3 yuan/ton. - Profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and rebar profits in East, North, and South China decreased by 15, 25, and 5 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Production, Inventory, and Demand - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 236.8 (1.1% increase). The output of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4 (-2.6% decrease), rebar output decreased by 8.5 to 200.0 (-4.1% decrease), and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.5 to 313.7 (-1.4% decrease). - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4 (-1.7% decrease), rebar inventory decreased by 16.4 to 576.2 (-2.8% decrease), and hot - rolled coil inventory remained basically unchanged. - Demand: Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.4 (-1.9% decrease), the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 860.6 (-0.7% decrease), rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 to 216.4 (-1.0% decrease), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.7 to 313.6 (-0.2% decrease) [2]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After a rapid decline last week, the iron ore futures rebounded. Although the pig iron output increased this week, there is limited room for further growth. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillating trend, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in unilateral operations [4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The cost of some warehouse receipts decreased slightly, while the cost of Brazilian mixed powder increased by 2.2 yuan/ton (0.3% increase). - The basis of some 01 contracts decreased slightly, while the basis of Brazilian mixed powder increased by 2.2 yuan/ton (3.2% increase). - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 (-2.2% decrease), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 51.0 (-3.0% decrease), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 29.0 (7.4% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0 (-4.5% decrease) week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2 (-14.8% decrease). - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9 (1.1% increase), the daily average port clearance volume increased by 6.0 to 327.0 (1.9% increase), and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory increased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 66.1 to 9076.0 (0.7% increase), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The futures price showed an oscillating downward trend. Although there is still an expectation of price increase due to cost support, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating market with a range of 1650 - 1780 yuan/ton. A long - 01 and short - 05 arbitrage is recommended, but beware of the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices. - Coking coal: The futures price showed an oscillating downward trend. The spot price is still at a high level, but the downward space of the futures is limited. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating market with a range of 1170 - 1290 yuan/ton. A long - 01 and short - 05 arbitrage is recommended, but beware of the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Prices and Spreads - Coke: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, the 01 contract price decreased by 17 to 1670 (-1.0% decrease), and the 05 contract price decreased by 8 (-0.4% decrease). - Coking coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, the 01 contract price decreased by 22 to 1192 (-1.8% decrease), and the 05 contract price decreased by 11 to 1250 (-0.9% decrease) [6]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 to 63.0 (-0.9% decrease), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2 (0.2% increase). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 5.4 to 853.8 (0.6% increase). - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9 (1.1% increase). - Inventory: Coke total inventory decreased by 7.7 to 879.4 (-0.9% decrease), coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and in some sectors decreased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply was 91,000 tons last week with no change from the previous week, while demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has risen during the dry season. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production decreased by 0.74% to 26,800 tons, and the November production plan is expected to decrease by 10.37% compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy shows different trends [7]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [7]. - Basis: On November 14th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 330 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged [7]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply production plan has decreased, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the November production plan is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease compared to the previous month [10]. - Demand: The production and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all in a downward trend, and the silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state [10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 14th, the N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1745 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, and it is at a low level compared to historical data [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [10]. - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to decrease, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and opening rates of different contracts and regions. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.37% to 9020 yuan/ton, and the weekly social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.09% decrease [16]. - Polysilicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and export/import data of different contracts and downstream products. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.28% to 54,045 yuan/ton, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,048 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,037 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.36%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. However, the trend strength of PP is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the short - term advice of not chasing short positions and medium - term trend still under pressure [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term market for PP does not require chasing short positions, but the medium - term trend still faces significant pressure. The supply side remains high, which is a major factor suppressing the market. Although recent trading volume has improved slightly due to low - price - driven short - term restocking, the peak demand period within the year has passed. In the long - run, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. However, the low profit of PP also restricts the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6474, with a daily increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 308,865, and the open interest decreased by 6371. The 01 - contract basis was - 144 (compared to - 160 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 101 (compared to - 97 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price was in the range of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was 6430 - 6550 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - The domestic PP market showed a slightly positive trend, with some prices rising by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The positive oscillation of PP futures boosted the trading atmosphere in the spot market. Some producers raised their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the goods, and traders slightly increased their quotes accordingly. However, downstream factories remained cautious in raw material procurement, with some entering the market to make appropriate low - price purchases [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The high supply on the supply side is still the main factor suppressing the market. The recent improvement in trading volume is mainly due to short - term restocking at low prices. The peak demand period within the year has passed, and the key to the future market lies in future demand factors. In the long - term, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. The low profit of PP also exerts pressure on the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the interval [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

2025.11.17-11.21 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场稳中偏强，轻质纯碱价格小幅上调5-3 5元/吨， 重质纯碱整体持稳。供应端因部分企业检修而略有收缩，但整体仍 处高位；需求保持平稳，下游按需采购。成本端煤炭价格走强支撑 企业挺价意愿，但供过于求格局限制上涨空间，市场延续窄幅整理。 纯碱期货多空交织，成本支撑与供应收紧形成提振，而高库存和疲 软需求压制反弹，短期维持震荡格局。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅震荡偏弱，供需矛盾持续。周中 部分地区价格承压回落，周末虽受成本支撑局部尝试提 价，但成交仍以低价为主。期货持续走弱创新低，供过 于求格局未改，短期缺乏利好，预计纯碱2601运行区间 1100-1250。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场稳中偏强，轻碱价格小幅上涨，重碱 持稳。供应收缩但需求平稳，成本支撑明显，供过于 求格局下预计延续窄幅整理。期货多空拉 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price has broken through the downward trend and is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality, but the downside is limited. Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. For polysilicon, the upcoming industry conference in Chengdu next week may boost market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to short - term weakening of power and energy storage demand and increased ore shipments. Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. Soybean oil lacks driving forces from the US soybean side and will fluctuate. [4][5][29][60][88] - For nickel, the current situation is mainly characterized by the contradiction of smelting inventory accumulation. Both the current and expected supply - demand situations limit the upside potential of Shanghai nickel. Although there are some nickel ore governance news in Indonesia, the inventory accumulation contradiction is more prominent. For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals lack upward driving forces, but the cost perspective makes short - selling at low levels less cost - effective. [4][5] - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also marginally declining. The key lies in whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production. Polysilicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment. [30][31][33][34] - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to increased supply from Australian mines and weakening demand in the energy storage and power sectors. [61][62] - Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: The nickel price has broken through the downward trend, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,440 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan. [4][5][14] - **Inventory Situation**: On November 14, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,563 tons to 54,243 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons. In the nickel - stainless steel sector, the SMM nickel - iron inventory in October was 29,564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in October was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - month and 3% month - on - month increase. [6][8] - **Market News**: There are various news in the Indonesian nickel market, including forestry workgroups taking over mines, sanctions on mining companies, and plans to adjust nickel production and quotas in 2026. [9][10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range, and the spot price remained unchanged. The polysilicon futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price was stable. The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday, and the polysilicon futures closed at 54,045 yuan/ton. [29] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased this week, with supply decreasing due to production cuts in the southwest region. The demand is in a weak state. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with short - term production decreasing and demand also weakening. [30][31][32] - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week. Polysilicon's upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment, and the expected price range is 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. [33][34] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract rose and then fluctuated at a high level. The 2601 contract closed at 87,360 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The spot price was 85,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. [60] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: The lithium ore price exceeded $1,000/ton, and the domestic port lithium concentrate inventory increased. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was basically flat, and the inventory continued to decrease. The demand for energy storage and power decreased. [61] - **Future Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure, and the price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 73,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. [62] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Last week, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.18%, and the soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.88%. This week, the palm oil main contract closed at 8,644 yuan/ton, with a - 0.41% change, and the soybean oil main contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a 1.05% increase. [88][93] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter may be higher than last year, and the inventory at the end of the year may remain at a relatively high level. Indonesia's palm oil export tariff is in a price - gaming stage. For soybean oil, the production situation in Brazil is good, and the US soybean oil has resolved some of the pressure through price adjustments. [89][90] - **Future Outlook**: Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91]

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, covering PTA and MEG futures markets on November 13, 2025 [1][3][4] PTA Market Market Performance - On November 13, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.64%, and the basis weakened to -79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day - The cost of crude oil prices fell again - The PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.42% - There were many maintenance and changes in plants under low processing fees recently - The inventory days of PTA factories within the week were 4.09 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.06 days [3] Main Force Trends - There was a divergence between long and short main forces [3] Market Expectations - In the short term, the PTA plant operating rate will decline slightly, which is a planned change - The spot processing fee will recover slightly but still operate at a low level - Without substantial production reduction policies, the supply will remain in excess in the long term - The high operation of downstream polyester will support demand - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term [3] MEG Market Market Performance - On November 13, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.05%, and the basis was 63 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3943 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day - The cost of crude oil prices fell again, and the production margins of oil-based and coal-based ethylene glycol remained in the red - The total inventory of MEG ports in East China within the week was 56.4 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.5 tons [4] Main Force Trends - The long main force increased positions [4] Market Expectations - The expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in the future is high, and the visible inventory has increased significantly - The far-month may continue to accumulate inventory - Recently, some ethylene glycol plants have been under maintenance and restarted, and there are still new plants planned to be commissioned - The supply side is expected to increase - Terminal orders increased during the Double Eleven period, but the peak demand season is coming to an end - The price center of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures market is volatile with a downward trend, affected by factors such as production reduction, weak downstream demand, and market sentiment towards policies [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to have a wide - range shock, supported by strong downstream and energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [5][8]. - The industrial silicon futures market will likely maintain a volatile state due to a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [12]. Summary by Directory Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures market had an intraday rise and fall, with the main 2601 contract down 3.33% to 51930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There were few changes in the fundamentals. Silicon wafer and battery cell spot prices dropped significantly. The market focus was on the storage platform and enterprise announcements, but market sensitivity decreased. In November, domestic production was expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remained weak, and component tender prices continued to decline [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with an increased position, controlled by short - sellers. There were trading opportunities at 9:30 and 13:35. The 5 - minute cycle was in a weak state, and the futures may fluctuate downward. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing line was 53845 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures market also rose and then fell, with the main 2601 contract down 0.80% to 86540 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Downstream and energy - storage demand was strong, and continuous inventory reduction supported the price. Weekly production increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally. However, the spot market's acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate was limited. This week's inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% decrease, and the social inventory had been decreasing for 12 weeks, with a cumulative reduction of 18465 tons. The smelting profit was restored [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was in a sideways shock state, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 78560 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated weakly, with the main 2601 contract down 1.18% to 9180 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Most small and medium - sized southern factories reduced or stopped production due to higher electricity prices in the dry season, while some leading enterprises remained stable. Northern large - scale factories' production did not decrease as expected. However, downstream polysilicon production was expected to decrease, and the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries faced challenges. The overall supply - demand was weak, with no clear trend [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was weak, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 8885 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures continued to rebound, with the main 2601 contract rising 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high. The market returned to the fundamental logic, and the "energy storage + power" demand strongly supported the lithium price. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton. The fundamentals showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market was expected to be strong in the short term [5][8]. - The polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate at a high level, with the main 2601 contract rising 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations, and the market was mainly in a wide - range shock [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 6.00% to 87,240 yuan/ton, hitting a two - and - a - half - month high [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The "energy storage + power" demand supported the lithium price. The new energy vehicle market had strong growth momentum, and the energy storage demand exceeded expectations. The inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, and the de - stocking accelerated [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 78,560 yuan/ton [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals tightened. Southern small and medium - sized factories reduced production due to the dry season, while northern supply remained high. The downstream had a reduction expectation, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was expected to be strong in the short term, and the 2 - hour cycle turned strong last Friday with a long - short dividing water level of 8,885 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract rose 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The market trading focus switched between fundamentals and policy expectations. The supply was expected to tighten, with an expected 15.36% month - on - month decrease in November production. The silicon wafer production decreased, the battery market was weak, and the component price was stable [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly. The main 2601 contract increased positions and rose, with bulls in control. The 5 - minute cycle was in shock, and the 2 - hour cycle had a long - short dividing water level of 56,065 yuan/ton [13][15].