1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of corn futures is insufficient, and the price has stopped rising and fallen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For corn, the USDA crop growth report shows a decline in the excellent - good ratio, increasing the expectation of a production cut. Domestically, the supply is increasing while the short - term purchasing power of downstream enterprises is weak, but the higher opening price of new - season corn has a positive impact on the market mood. For corn starch, the industry's operating rate is low, the inventory pressure has decreased, but the inventory is still high, and the substitution advantage of other starches is squeezing the market demand. It is also recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][13] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's crop growth report showed that as of September 7, 2025, the excellent - good ratio of US corn was 68%. Domestically, the supply is increasing, and the short - term purchasing power of downstream enterprises is weak. However, the higher opening price of new - season corn has a positive impact on the market mood. The upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, and the bulls tend to take profits [8][9][10] - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous week. Currently, the raw material corn in the north is in the stage of new - old alternation. Some enterprises have new overhauls, and the industry's operating rate is low. The inventory pressure has decreased, but the inventory is still high, and the substitution of other starches is squeezing the market demand. It is affected by the decline of corn and its own weak demand, and the overall trend is weaker than that of corn [14] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 851,763 lots, a decrease of 63,874 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 217,054 lots, an increase of 19,202 lots from the previous week [19] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 44,942, and the net short position decreased compared with last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 47,970, and the net short position increased compared with last week [25] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 47,454 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 9,950 lots [31] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of September 11, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2365.49 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 11 - month active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 168 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 326 yuan/ton [36][41] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 30 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 13 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [47] - **Futures Spread**: The spread between the 11 - month contract of starch and corn was 277 yuan/ton. In the 37th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 416 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [55] - **Substitute Spread**: As of September 11, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2426 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2365.49 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 60.51 yuan/ton. In the 37th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 223 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [60] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 65.6 tons, a decrease of 7.90 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 94.5 tons, a decrease of 18.2 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 33.7 tons, an increase of 9.70 tons week - on - week [51] - **Monthly Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons or 94.50% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month [69] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 11, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.91 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16% [73] - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [77] - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 52.65 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 126.24 yuan/head [81] - **Processing Enterprise Profit**: As of September 11, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 154 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 415 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 730 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [86] 3.4. Industry Chain Situation - Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 10, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.487 million tons, a decrease of 8.26% [90] - **Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory**: From September 4 to September 10, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 510,300 tons, a decrease of 5200 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 243,900 tons, a decrease of 2900 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.14%, a decrease of 0.56% from the previous week. As of September 10, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.226 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 3.08%, a monthly decrease of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 40.27% [94] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - As of September 12, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.08%, a decrease of 0.31% from 9.39% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term. For coke, the market is turning to a loose pattern and is also expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coking coal mines in major producing areas have resumed production steadily, with stable supply. Due to the decline in steel prices and increased expectations of coke price cuts, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere has deteriorated. Some coal inventories in mines have accumulated, and coal prices are running weakly and stably [2] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1130, with a basis of - 11.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: Some coking and steel enterprises are resuming production, increasing short - term raw material consumption. However, due to the first round of coke price cuts and the expectation of further price cuts, enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [2] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [4] - **Negative Factors**: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - **Fundamentals**: The decline in raw coal prices has stimulated the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises, and the production has increased. However, downstream steel mills have improved their arrival situation and controlled procurement, affecting the shipment of coking enterprises [6] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1570, with a basis of - 60, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is decreasing [7] - **Expectation**: Coking enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm, but terminal demand is weak, and steel mills are cautious in procurement. The market is turning to a loose pattern, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [6] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9] - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [9] Other Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31] - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [44] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from September 1st to 5th, 2025, the price of industrial silicon in the futures market fluctuated upward, while the spot market remained stable. The main contract of industrial silicon futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with relatively sharp fluctuations and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating intense competition between long and short positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated during the week, showing a pattern of two down - days and three up - days. By the end of the week, the main contract (si2511) rose 450 points, closing at 8,820 points, with a maximum of 8,920 points and a minimum of 8,270 points. The trading volume was 1,916,401 lots, which was higher than the average level in the past period, in line with the characteristics of an adjustment and correction market [3]. - **Variety Market**: Among the industrial silicon futures contracts, the price of the industrial silicon (si2608) contract was the highest and remained relatively stable, while the price of the industrial silicon (si2509) contract was the lowest [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 5th, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, the price of East China non - oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,500 yuan/ton, the price of East China 421 silicon remained at 12,200 yuan/ton, the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained at 12,800 yuan/ton, the price of 99 silicon (Xinjiang) remained at 10,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 421 and 553 was 400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: The spot price in East China remained stable during the week, while the futures price rose slightly. The basis was positive and narrowed, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton during the week [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: On the supply side, the production of industrial silicon is expected to decline in September. Although the current silicon price has fallen below the lowest cost line in the southwestern region during the wet season, some enterprises have locked in the selling price through selling hedging, so there is no obvious production cut for the time being. However, after the delivery of hedging orders, silicon factories will cut production due to the inability to accept long - term low prices. In terms of regions, although there is a resumption of production in Xinjiang, the overall resumption rhythm and capacity release are limited; Yunnan and Sichuan are struggling near the cost line, and production enthusiasm is affected [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: Currently, the cumulative main buying of industrial silicon is greater than the main selling, and the main buying has been strong for two consecutive days, indicating strong buyer sentiment. However, from a longer - term and overall supply - demand perspective, industrial silicon still faces significant upward pressure. Whether this rebound can continue depends on changes in the fundamentals and the subsequent sustainability of funds [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week without significant fluctuations. However, market feedback shows that the spot trading activity is not high, and traders and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, demand recovery remains weak, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8385 - 8645 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling is decreasing, while demand in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is increasing. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 51175 - 53215 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Production scheduling is expected to increase and stay around the historical average [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish, especially in polysilicon [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is at a low level of 211,000 tons, organic silicon inventory is at a high level of 73,200 tons, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 54,600 tons [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3254 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 435 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 537,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55% to 170,800 tons, and major port inventory decreased by 1.68% to 117,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 30,200 tons, a 2.58% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In September, production scheduling for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to increase [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,350 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On September 4th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 695 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased by 0.93% to 211,000 tons, at a historical low [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [9]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices of most contracts showed minor fluctuations, with some contracts slightly up or down. Inventory in different regions and ports showed various trends, with some decreasing and some increasing slightly [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Inventory and production also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis - **Organic Silicon** - **Price and Production**: DMC daily capacity utilization remained unchanged at 70.59%, lower than the historical average. The price and profit of DMC and its downstream products showed different trends [42][44]. - **Inventory and Trade**: DMC monthly inventory increased by 34.81% to 73,200 tons, and export and import volumes showed different trends over time [42][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - **Price and Supply**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the cost and profit of imported ADC12 showed minor changes. The supply side, including scrap aluminum recycling, inventory, and imports, showed different trends [51]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends, and the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys also varied [54]. - **Demand**: Automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel exports showed different trends over time [55]. - **Polysilicon** - **Fundamentals**: The industry cost of polysilicon showed an upward trend, and prices, inventory, production, and demand showed different trends [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different states in different months, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [62]. - **Downstream Segments** - **Silicon Wafers**: Prices, production, inventory, and net exports of silicon wafers showed different trends [65]. - **Battery Cells**: Prices, production, inventory, and exports of battery cells showed different trends [68]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: Prices, inventory, production, and exports of photovoltaic components showed different trends [71]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: Prices, production, and trade of photovoltaic accessories such as coatings, films, glass, and quartz sand showed different trends [74]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of components and their components (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells) showed different trends [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the mainstream funds' positions are bearish. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. Operationally, short positions should be taken on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,299 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,249,082 lots, up 31,805 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -94,945 lots, down 3,832 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,360 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 81 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90%, down 0.27 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2474 million tons, down 5,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.95%, down 0.13 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 796,800 tons, up 7,900 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.8578 million tons, up 32,300 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2]. Industry News - As of the morning of September 2, research shows that 78 coal mines in Shanxi have voluntarily stopped production due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August was 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%; the cumulative wholesale from January to August this year was 8.93 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34% [2]. Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. The market order trading remained resilient. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and there were concerns about anode copper production in September and October. There was potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - peak. The inventory was expected to decline in September. Attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply increased, and the demand was seasonally weak. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. [4] - Nickel supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] - Stainless steel supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills. The demand was mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] - Lead prices fluctuated this week. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week. [11] - Tin prices fluctuated upward this week, mainly driven by the news of smelter maintenance in Yunnan. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate. The short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking, and the medium - and long - term outlook was in a cycle of bottom - level oscillation. [17] - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The price had strong downward support. [19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 20, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, the spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the anode copper processing fee declined. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly. [1] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the changes in the structure between September - October months and inside - outside, and the potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 90, and the LME inventory decreased by 1450. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, demand was in the seasonal off - peak in August, and the inventory was expected to decline in September. [1] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 275. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the domestic demand was seasonally weak, and the overseas demand was average. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. [4] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. Hold the inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between months. [4][5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 300, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. [5][6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and the premium was stable. [6] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the inventory in Xifu remained stable. [9] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the cost was relatively stable. [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the lead price fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1525. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons. [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. [11] - **Strategy**: It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week, and it might test the 17,000 mark. [11] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the tin price fluctuated upward, and the LME inventory increased by 20. [14] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. There was a potential for a short - term mismatch between supply and demand in September - October. [14] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 371. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The production in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate, and the short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking. [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom. [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 810. [19] - **Fundamentals**: The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The monthly balance turned to continuous de - stocking. [19] - **Strategy**: The price had strong downward support. [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For coking coal, with improved macro - expectations, slowed inventory depletion at mines, mixed spot transactions, and frequent regulatory pressures, the coking coal 2601 contract will oscillate [5] - For coke, with tight coke inventories in some regions and a game between the eighth round of price hikes and the first round of price cuts, the coke 2601 contract will oscillate [8] Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt is 1094, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is 1182, coke warehouse receipt is 1608, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1518 [11] 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - Coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 160, a week - on - week decrease of 20 [12] - Total coke daily output is 110.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 million tons [12] - Hot metal output is 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [12] - Coal washery output is 25.98 million tons (with changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons [12] 3. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 887.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 87.51 million tons [14] - Coking plant's coke inventory is 65.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons [14] - Steel mill's coke inventory is 610.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons [14] - Port inventory is 212.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons [14] - Coking coal total inventory is 2048.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 187.63 million tons [16] - Coking plant's coking coal inventory is 961.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 109.58 million tons [16] - Steel mill's coking coal inventory is 811.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 77.39 million tons [16] - Port inventory is 275.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 tons [16] - Coal washery inventory is 289.48 million tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week decrease of 5.36 million tons [16] 4. Import and Export - From January to July, coking coal imports were 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [19] - From January to July, coke exports were 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].