Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The overall view is wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and lack of upward driving force [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, and their profitability has not improved, leading to weak ore demand and downward pressure on prices. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, and miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall ore supply remains high despite a contraction in domestic ore supply. Although there are short - term positive factors supporting the price to return to a high level, the continuous weakening of demand and high - level supply result in a poor fundamental situation. The price will continue to oscillate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides trading strategies for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon. It also mentions potential influencing factors and trading opportunities for each commodity [1][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - **Core Logic**: The weekly production and inventory data for lithium carbonate were released, showing a continued de - stocking pattern, but the de - stocking amplitude significantly narrowed. Since December, the inventory has decreased by 2000 - 3000 tons per week, but only 1044 tons this week, far lower than expected. The demand side still has some resilience, with domestic power and energy storage demand both increasing month - on - month in November. It is expected that domestic energy storage installations in 2026 may increase by over 60% year - on - year. The resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine needs to be closely watched, as its resumption may drive the futures price down [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures changed little today, with some reduction at the end of the session. It is still dominated by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 97,720 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures weakened today. The main 2605 contract closed at 59,300 yuan/ton, up 3.73% from the previous trading day's closing price [7]. - **Core Logic**: The market has a need for adjustment after continuous new highs since listing, driven by the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. However, from a policy perspective, the elimination of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain is still emphasized. The polysilicon output has decreased year - on - year for the first time since 2013, strengthening the expectation of price increase, and it is still considered strong [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased significantly today, and it is still dominated by long positions. There was an opportunity to intervene at 13:35 today with the "three - line resonance method" combined with a significant decline in trading volume. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 59,300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon is still considered strong. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures strengthened today. The 2605 contract closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, up 2.07% from the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, domestic commodities generally rose today, with significant increases in precious metals and coking coal. Fundamentally, the current situation of weak supply and demand in the industrial silicon industry continues, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, with the inventory - building pattern continuing. Some manufacturers have a strong price - holding mentality under continuous cost inversion, but the overall effect is average in the face of weak demand [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures has been continuously decreasing, and it has turned to be dominated by long positions. The downward driving force has weakened. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,230 yuan/ton [11][14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is considered a rebound. Intraday trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1126.50 | +64.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.50 | +73.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 703005.00 | -5489.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 38997.00 | -2591.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -39347.00 | +10104.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | 48.00 | -701.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 110.50 | +19.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 139.50 | +6.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -200.00↓ 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 919.00 | -51.00↓ 唐山一级冶 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈加剧，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 冬储补库预期支撑，焦炭期货低 位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, putting pressure on the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a significant increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but with weak demand and high supply, the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing, and the profitability of steel mills has not improved, so the demand for ore remains weak, which pressures the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a large increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. Although domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall supply is still high. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. It will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.9017%，环比减少0.18个百分点，全国样本企业出货25.342万吨，环比减少9.68%,样本企业 产量为49.9万吨，环比减少0.59%,样本企业装置检修量预估为94.4万吨，环比增加14.29%,本周炼厂有所减产， 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比减少0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为8.9781 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 沥青：低位反弹，关注地缘 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 吨 山东 江苏 广东 辽宁 BU厂库仓单 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 3,012 | 4.08% | 2,974 | -1.26% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 3,014 | 3.36% | 2,981 | -1.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 504,034 | 131,674 | 235,465 | (1,592) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 171,022 | 61,203 | 117,175 | 1, ...

| 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | 徐艺丹 | | Z0020017 | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 782.5 | 772.6 | 9.9 | 1.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 830.4 | 824.9 | 5.5 | 0.7% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 836.3 | 830.9 | 5.4 | 0.6% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 829.5 | 824.1 | 5.4 | 0.7% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | -1.0 | -4.4 | 3.4 | 76.4% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 46.9 | 47.9 | -1.0 | -2.1% | 工/肥 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 52.8 | 53.9 | -1.1 | -2.1% | | | 01合约基差: 金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 行情驱动逻辑 煤炭行业利好发酵提振市场情绪，钢材期价夜盘走强，但螺纹钢供需格局表现偏弱，供应持续 下降并降至低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求季节性走弱，高频指标延 续低位偏弱运行，且下游行业也未好转，弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，钢材期 价低位回 ...