. | . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 豆粕 | 周末 | ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果，预计单产为 53 蒲式耳，小于美农 8 | | | 短线整理 | 月预计，偏利多。美豆地区降雨低于正常水平。前日豆粕止跌整理，技术上有企稳 | | ★ | | 反弹的趋向。但美豆收获在即，或限制反弹空间。 | | 菜粕 | | 高库存，高仓单现实，中澳贸易改善令近日市场炒作情绪有所降温。上周中加会晤 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 后，尚未有新的进展出现。菜粕前日反弹，关注中澳后续进展以及加方对于中国反 | | ★ | | 倾销结果是否存在意图改善行为。 | | 棕榈油 | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。印尼对美国棕榈油出口关税有望降至零，利空棕榈油 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 价格近日调整。但 8 月马棕榈油出口数据良好，棕榈油继续追空需谨慎。 | | 豆油 | | 现货端，进入 9 月现货价格逐步抬升，虽供应压力依旧存在，但需求好转的预期下 | | ★ | 短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. This week, corn futures rebounded from lows. The US corn production forecast is high but lower than the USDA's August prediction. Domestically, new - crop corn is approaching the listing period, supply is expected to be ample, and demand is weak. However, the futures price rebounded slightly due to short - covering [9][10]. - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The industry's operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, and demand is in the off - season. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still significantly higher year - on - year. The futures price was boosted by the corn rebound [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish view [9]. - **Market Review**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2191 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Outlook**: US production forecast is high but lower than USDA's prediction. Domestic new - crop corn is coming, supply is expected to be abundant, demand is weak, and the futures price rebounded due to short - covering [10]. - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish view [13]. - **Market Review**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2501 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Outlook**: The operating rate has increased, supply pressure has risen, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price was boosted by the corn rebound. As of August 27, the inventory was 131.8 tons, down 2.10 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures 11 - month contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 983,279 lots, an increase of 28,014 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures 11 - month contract oscillated slightly higher, with a total position of 208,887 lots, an increase of 6,098 lots from last week [20]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - Corn futures' top 20 net position was - 85,810, compared with - 97,205 last week, and the net short position decreased [26]. - Starch futures' top 20 net position was - 35,033, compared with - 20,670 last week, and the net short position increased [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - Yellow corn registered warehouse receipts were 69,426 [32]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts were 7,450 [32]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 174 yuan/ton [37]. - Corn starch in Jilin was reported at 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong at 2950 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 349 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The corn 11 - 1 spread was 11 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - The starch 11 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The 11 - month contract spread between starch and corn was 310 yuan/ton. In the 35th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 370 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of August 28, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2429.83 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2365.29 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 64.54 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 35th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 184 yuan/ton, widening by 27 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply** - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 770,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.272 million tons, a decrease of 239,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons week - on - week [52]. - In July 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 94.50%, and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with the same period last month [70]. - As of August 28, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.13 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.50%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [74]. - **Demand** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [78]. - As of August 22, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 33.95 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 151.8 yuan/head [82]. - As of August 28, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 65 yuan/ton [87]. - As of August 29, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 456 yuan/ton, in Jilin - 630 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang - 207 yuan/ton [87]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply** - As of August 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.942 million tons, a decrease of 6.51% [91]. - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 539,300 tons, a decrease of 9700 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 263,900 tons, a decrease of 6700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.01%, a decrease of 1.3% from last week. As of August 27, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.318 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.57%, a monthly increase of 0.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.41% [95]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 29, the implied volatility of the corn main 2511 contract was 10.7%, up 0.97% from 9.73% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and rebounded this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].

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Group 1: Report Summary - Core view: Affected by the negative impact of the news of opening Australian rapeseed imports on rapeseed meal and the expectation of China-US talks, the soybean meal 01 contract showed weakness today and is expected to be range - bound in the short term. With the current poor crushing profit and the narrowing of the price difference between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans to a normal range, there is limited downside space for M01 under cost support [6]. Group 2: Industry Data Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on August 28: Dalian was 111 with a rise of 16; Tianjin was 21 with a rise of 6; Zhangjiagang had a rise of 6; Dongguan was -99 with a fall of -4; Zhanjiang was -79 with a fall of -14; Fangcheng was -59 with a fall of -14. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 22 with a rise of 19. M9 - 1 was -50 with a rise of 3 [4]. Spread Data - On August 28, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (in Guangdong) was 447 with a rise of 27, and the spread of the main contract was 376 [5]. Inventory Data - As of relevant time, domestic soybean inventory increased to a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation slowed down but was still in the inventory - building cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased [6]. Supply and Demand Data Supply - USDA's August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 33.6 (historical high), but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The Pro Farmer inspection results showed that the estimated yield per acre of new - crop US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA's estimate. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%. In the next two weeks, there will be less rainfall in the production areas but lower temperatures, which may lead to an expected decline in the good - to - excellent rate. The expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans in August and September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in the inventory - building cycle; the purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expected inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control the inventory and weight of pigs is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the use of protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were relatively cautious [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Rubber Industry - New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. In the long - term, if some capacity is cleared, supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips, but be aware of the pressure from inventory and warehouse receipts [2]. Polysilicon Industry - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Future warehouse receipts are expected to increase. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips, and consider short - selling by buying put options at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Log Industry - The current main contract is the 2511 contract, and the market value fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The demand remains firm, and the inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract on dips [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. There is no growth expectation for demand, and the inventory may be further pressured. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Glass**: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The market has a negative feedback loop, with the near - term 09 contract facing weak reality and the far - term 01 contract facing weak expectations. High - level short positions can be closed for profit and wait for new driving factors [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan/ton. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 21.51% to - 1045 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,850 yuan/ton [1]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's production increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's production increased by 6.8 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 94.364 million, tire exports increased by 10.51% to 66.65 million, and natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% to 474,800 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 12.26% [2]. Inter - monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's production increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's production increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 4.54% to 199,800 tons, polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% to 74,000 tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton and 46,000 yuan/ton respectively. The N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180.00% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 31,000 tons, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 213,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 180,500 GW [4]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2509 contract decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, the 2511 contract increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2601 contract increased by 1.03% to 836.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [5]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.149, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 814.95 yuan/cubic meter [5]. Monthly Data - Port shipments decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, and the daily average log delivery volume was 64,500 cubic meters [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass quotes remained unchanged. The glass 2509 contract decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - Soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and weekly soda ash production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.64% to 62,566,000 heavy boxes, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report recommends an oscillating and bullish stance on coking coal futures [4]. - It suggests an oscillating and bearish view on palm oil futures [23]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal futures have been oscillating upwards recently, driven by multiple factors, presenting both opportunities and challenges [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to shift from an upward trend to high - level oscillations [7]. - The gold market will experience short - term small - scale platform oscillations [11]. - The iron ore futures are showing obvious wide - range oscillations recently [15]. - The glass futures rebounded slightly today, and attention should be paid to the lower support [19]. - The palm oil market has a declining motivation for further chasing the rise and an increasing pressure for profit - taking [23]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - Supply - side factors include tightened safety regulations in Shanxi leading to coal mine production cuts and reduced imports due to lower Mongolian port clearance and rising Australian coking coal arrival prices [4]. - Demand - side factors are strong demand from the steel industry, high hot metal production, and increased coking enterprise procurement after coke price hikes [4]. - Technically, the coking coal futures have broken through key moving averages, formed a bullish arrangement, and seen a significant increase in trading volume [4]. - The price increase benefits coking enterprises but may put pressure on steel enterprises [4]. Stock Index Futures - News includes the release of the 2025 list of China's top 500 private enterprises by the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce and the introduction of new real - estate policies in many places [7]. - The market is expected to shift from an upward trend to high - level oscillations [7]. Gold Futures - The Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium has increased the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, which is positive for gold [12]. - The weekly adjustment of gold is relatively sufficient, and it will have short - term small - scale platform oscillations [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Technically, it had a significant upward movement today, with obvious wide - range oscillations recently [15]. - High hot metal production continues, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains, and negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits should be watched out for [16]. Glass Futures - Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and attention should be paid to the lower support [19]. - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to restocking before the peak season [20]. Palm Oil Futures - The oil market has seen a large cumulative increase recently, but with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the motivation for further chasing the rise is declining and the profit - taking pressure is increasing [23]. Pulp Futures - High inventory is the main constraint, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement remains average. The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has decreased today, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the international soybean market has improved significantly. The pressure on the supply side has gradually eased, and the carry - over stock provides obvious support at the current price. The domestic soybean market has a high arrival volume and large crushing volume, with obvious inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international sugar price trend. In the oil market, the price of palm oil is supported by the firm price in Indonesia, and the domestic vegetable oil market has different fundamentals. The corn market has different trends at home and abroad, and the pig market supply pressure is expected to improve. The peanut market has a weak downstream consumption, and the egg market has obvious supply - side pressure. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger short - term trend, and the cotton - yarn market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][12][19][26][33][39][49][57][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.09% to 1064.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.78% to 291.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: Brazil's soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were adjusted; Argentina's soybean planting area from March to May 2026 is expected to decline; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and soybean meal inventory increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, and the domestic market has inventory accumulation pressure [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Long soy and rapeseed meal on dips for far - month contracts; expand the MRM05 spread on dips; buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, and London white sugar price rose [8]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports increased slightly in the first four weeks of August; domestic processed sugar quotes were stable with general transactions; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the international market [12]. - **Position Recommendations**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the international market with a small - range oscillating trend; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15]. Oilseeds - **External Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices changed [17]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry hopes to cancel tax credit restrictions; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, and domestic vegetable oil has different fundamentals [19]. - **Trading Strategies**: Consider buying on dips for short - term oil price corrections; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [20][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [24]. - **Important Information**: South Africa's corn harvest will increase; domestic port corn inventory and shipment volume decreased; corn starch inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn has room for rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on CBOT December corn on dips; go long on 01 corn on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices rebounded in some regions; piglet and sow prices fell; the national average pork price decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure is expected to improve, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Buy far - month contracts on dips; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36]. Peanut - **Important Information**: The national average peanut price fell; peanut production and oil mill demand are limited; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [37][38]. - **Logic Analysis**: New - season peanuts are expected to have sufficient supply, and the market is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase [39][41]. - **Trading Strategies**: 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in a bottom - oscillating phase, and try short - term long on 05 peanut contracts; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [42][43][44]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in main production and sales areas changed; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales volume decreased; inventory increased; egg farming profit improved [46][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [50][51][52]. Apple - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; import and export volume changed; early - maturing apple varieties were on the market, and prices were polarized; apple prices in Shandong were stable, and storage profit decreased [54][55][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market trend is expected to be slightly stronger [57]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips for new - season apples and operate with low - buying and high - selling; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [60][61][62]. Cotton - Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton prices fell [64]. - **Important Information**: US cotton growing conditions improved; India's cotton planting area growth slowed; Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was slower than last year [65][66]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger [67]. - **Trading Strategies**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].