要想理解特朗普为何只会"骂而不解雇"，必须先看清他所面对的几重困境。 特朗普对鲍威尔的反感由来已久，几乎成为公开的秘密。他不止一次骂鲍威尔是"笨蛋""白痴"，甚至在会议中嘲讽说"跟他讲话简直像跟一把椅子对话"。 尤其最近美联储总部斥资25亿美元进行大规模翻修的项目，被特朗普抓住不放，他直言这"或许足以成为开除鲍威尔的理由"。如果换作他公司里的高管， 恐怕早已被迫离职。 特朗普嘴上严厉指责美联储主席鲍威尔"做得很糟糕""没尽责"，却始终没有真正动手罢免他。这种看似矛盾的行为，表面上是特朗普对鲍威尔个人的不 满，实则背后牵扯着复杂的权力博弈、政治算计和经济现实之间的微妙平衡。 但美联储主席并非普通员工。美国法律对美联储的独立性设有严格保护机制，主席任期为四年，总统无权随意开除，除非有"合法且充分的理由"，比如违 法或渎职。 虽然美联储翻新大楼的开销巨大，但美联储方面给出的解释合情合理：清除石棉、处理污染土壤、提升安全标准，这些额外成本并非挥霍浪费。更重要的 是，美联储用的是自有资金，而非政府财政拨款。特朗普若想强行给翻修费扣上"正当理由"的帽子，法律上根本站不住脚。 就连共和党内部也有人提醒特朗普别轻易出手。众议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warns that President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve and push for interest rate cuts could lead to a sharp rise in inflation expectations, increasing long-term borrowing costs and exacerbating fiscal risks [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - Summers notes that no mainstream economists support lowering interest rates to 1% in the current environment, suggesting that while it may bring short-term economic benefits, it would create strong inflationary expectations [1]. - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while Trump has called for a reduction of up to 3 percentage points [1]. - Most Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they will not consider rate cuts until the impact of Trump's new tariff policies on inflation is more clearly assessed [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Signals - Summers highlights a recent market reaction to reports of Trump considering dismissing Fed Chair Powell, which led to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields and an increase in 10-year yields, indicating a shift in market expectations towards looser monetary policy [1]. - He warns that the current policy mix from the Trump administration is sowing the seeds of a dangerous vicious cycle, where large fiscal deficits push up long-term borrowing costs, further exacerbating budget deficits [2]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Outlook - Summers points out that the bond market is sending concerning signals, with long-term U.S. Treasury yield expectations remaining high, which poses a serious warning for the U.S. medium-term fiscal credibility [2]. - Recent market data shows that the one-year forward yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasury bonds has recently surpassed 3%, compared to an average of about 2% since 2000 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has not fully accounted for the high market interest rate expectations in its forecasts for future borrowing costs, indicating that the government will face significant challenges in long-term debt issuance [2]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Summers expresses concern over the U.S. fiscal situation, noting that the dollar index has experienced its largest decline since 1973 in the first half of this year [3]. - Regarding the recent U.S. inflation data for June, Summers indicates that while some indicators rose less than expected, the impact of tariffs on inflation may still be delayed and should not be dismissed [3].

Group 1 - The US dollar index has recently shown a strong rebound, reaching a multi-day increase, with a cumulative rise of over 2% as of July 17, supported by higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [1][5] - The Chinese yuan has shown mixed performance against the dollar, with the central parity rate reaching its strongest level since November at 7.1461, while the offshore yuan depreciated over 200 points recently [1][7] - The expectation of a weaker yuan is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs set to take effect on August 1, with the People's Bank of China showing a willingness to stabilize the yuan [1][7] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now at 53.5%, down from 59.3% [5][6] - The inflation data for June indicates that tariffs are beginning to have an impact, with significant price increases in categories like home goods and appliances, which are targeted by tariffs [6] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index is likely to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 99, with a breakthrough at this level indicating a move towards 100 [6][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential implications for the US economy and the dollar's strength, as increased tariff revenues could embolden further tariff actions by the Trump administration [8][9] - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus plans may outweigh their economic benefits, potentially impacting the dollar's performance [9][10] - The ongoing increase in tariff revenues is not expected to sufficiently address the worsening fiscal deficit, leading to potential volatility in long-term US Treasury yields [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. government achieved a budget surplus of $27 billion in June, with total revenue of approximately $526 billion and total expenditure of about $499 billion [2][3]. - A significant portion of the surplus came from tariffs, with June's tariff revenue reaching $26.6 billion, a substantial increase from $6.7 billion in June of the previous year [5][6]. - The increase in tariff revenue is attributed to the implementation of a 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% starting June 4 [7][8]. Group 2 - The budget surplus in June is viewed as a temporary achievement, as it does not reflect the overall fiscal health of the U.S. government, which has a significant deficit [24][25]. - The U.S. federal debt has reached $37.1 trillion, indicating a dire financial situation for the government [12]. - The reliance on tariffs to generate revenue highlights the challenges in increasing government income through traditional means, as previous administrations have done [13][14]. Group 3 - Trump's administration is focused on using tariffs as a primary means to address the fiscal deficit, with the expectation of generating over $200 billion from the 10% baseline tariff on imports [9][18]. - The administration's approach to tariffs is characterized by unpredictability, as Trump has shown a willingness to adjust rates at any time based on perceived needs for revenue [19][37]. - The potential for increased tariffs, including a proposed 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, illustrates the aggressive stance of the administration in seeking revenue [39][40]. Group 4 - The current fiscal strategy is reminiscent of historical precedents where high tariffs led to economic downturns, raising concerns about the long-term implications of such policies [45]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments may hinder international trade agreements, as other countries pursue their own trade partnerships [44]. - The situation reflects a broader trend of economic nationalism, with the U.S. government increasingly relying on tariffs as a tool for fiscal management [43].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the strained relationship between Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump, as well as the implications of Musk's recent actions, including changing his phone number and ceasing communication with House Speaker Mike Johnson after a disagreement over the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill [1][3] - Mike Johnson expressed his desire to resolve the situation and indicated that he has attempted to reach out to Musk through third parties, hoping for a reconciliation between Musk and Trump [3] - The report highlights that Musk was previously a close ally of Trump, having invested over $290 million during the last federal election cycle to support Trump's victory, and played a significant role in establishing the government efficiency office under Trump's administration [3] Group 2 - Musk's recent criticism of Trump stems from concerns over the increasing national debt, which he attributes to Trump's policies, stating that the fiscal deficit has escalated from $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion under Trump's leadership, potentially leading to national bankruptcy [3] - The article notes that there are multiple factors contributing to the breakdown of the relationship between Musk and Trump, although specific reasons were not detailed [3] - Johnson's comments suggest that there is still hope for a positive relationship between Musk and Trump, despite the current tensions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that markets outside the US present better investment opportunities due to attractive valuations and supportive fiscal spending and central bank policies [1] - Despite ongoing trade disputes, geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and rising interest rates, the market is approaching historical highs, indicating a recovery from recent lows [1] - Investors are reassessing the market, with expectations that risk factors will have limited impact, focusing instead on positive elements such as stable corporate earnings and increasing fiscal spending [1] Group 2 - Prudential has reduced its underweight allocation to large US stocks due to balanced upside and downside risks surrounding tariff negotiations [2] - The company maintains an underweight allocation to bonds due to increased supply needed for US fiscal policy and potential inflation threats from tariffs that could raise US interest rates [2] - Prudential has decreased its underweight allocation to growth stocks relative to value stocks, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI investments [2] Group 3 - The company continues to favor short-duration bonds as the short end of the yield curve is constrained by Federal Reserve policies, while the long end has more upside potential [2] - Prudential maintains a high allocation to inflation-linked bonds and Asian credit [2] - The company also holds a high allocation to cash for its attractive yield and to limit duration risk, although some cash has been reallocated to equity risk [2]

Debt Issuance Pressure - The estimated net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for Q3 2025 is approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to Q2 2020, indicating significant supply pressure[2] - This figure exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in Q3 2023, suggesting a substantial increase in issuance pressure[11] - The projected fiscal deficit for Q3 2025 is $0.6 trillion, with a TGA net increase of $0.52 trillion contributing to the net issuance estimate[11] Historical Context - The supply panic in Q3 2023 was primarily due to actual financing of $1.01 trillion significantly exceeding the expected $0.85 trillion[27] - The low TGA balance at the start of Q3 2023 (actual $148 billion vs. expected $408.6 billion) contributed to the unexpected financing pressure[27] - Historical data suggests that the overall debt maturity pressure for Q3 2025 is not significantly elevated compared to previous periods[37] Interest Rate Dynamics - Rising Treasury yields in 2023 were influenced by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve policies[3] - If similar yield increases occur in Q3 2025, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle[36] - The market anticipates that the significant increase in bond supply for Q3 2025 will not lead to a repeat of the panic seen in Q3 2023 due to better expectations[28] Debt Structure Adjustments - Adjusting the issuance structure by increasing short-term debt may alleviate some pressure on long-term bond supply, but not entirely[51] - The total estimated debt issuance for FY 2025 is $30.6 trillion, with Q3 2025 expected to account for $8.32 trillion of this total[45] - The proportion of short-term debt has been increasing, with the long-term debt issuance ratio dropping to around 16%[47]

【环球网财经综合报道】全球发达经济体正深陷财政赤字泥潭，主要经济体长期债券收益率周一集体攀升，财政问题取代利率政策成为市场焦 点。 行情显示，日本30年期国债收益率周一涨超10个基点，逼近5月纪录高位；10年期日债收益率周二进一步涨至1.595%，创2008年10月以来新高。 日本参议院选举在即，竞选人承诺增加支出与减税以吸引选民，执政联盟或失多数派地位，降低消费税率的争论加剧，引发市场对日本财政状况 的担忧。此外，超长期日债需求下降，传统买家寿险公司减少购买，日本央行逐步退出市场，也推动日债下跌。日本央行去年结束负利率政策并 两次上调利率，官员预计7月31日议息会议将维持基准利率0.5%不变。 欧洲市场上，30年期德国国债收益率隔夜一度涨3个基点至3.25%，触及2023年以来最高水平。德国当局为加强军备和基础设施，放弃数十年财政 节约政策。德国总理默茨警告，特朗普提出的30%关税威胁将重创欧洲最大经济体的出口企业。 美债方面，30年期美债收益率周一连续第三天下跌，截至纽约时段尾盘涨3.21个基点报4.978%，逼近敏感的5%关口，上次达到该水平是在6月 初。本月初以来，30年期美债收益率累计上涨逾20个基 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly rose to 1.595%, the highest level since October 2008, while the 20-year and 30-year yields also reached their highest levels since 1999 and a historical high of 3.195%, respectively [1] - Concerns are growing regarding the potential loss of majority seats by the ruling coalition in the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to increased political instability and pressure on Japanese bonds [2][3] - The Japanese government is facing declining support due to rising living costs, including a surge in rice prices, which is impacting the ruling party's popularity ahead of the elections [2] Group 2 - Global long-term bond yields are rising, with Japan leading the trend, as concerns over expanding fiscal deficits weaken market demand [3][6] - The focus has shifted from central bank interest rate policies to fiscal and national debt issues, with significant worries about excessive government spending and bond supply [6][9] - The demand for ultra-long bonds is decreasing as traditional buyers, such as life insurance companies, reduce their purchases amid the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the market [9][10]