Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

（文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 美国政府此前威胁，将从8月1日开始向未能与美国达成贸易协议的贸易伙伴征收高关税。如今期限将 至，巴西和印度表示，不会屈服于美国的压力，将采取一切必要措施维护国家利益。此前，美国宣布自 8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品征收50%的关税。7月30日，美国《纽约时报》发表了对巴西总统卢拉的 采访，卢拉表示他曾尝试联系美国总统特朗普，但是对方并无就关税问题进行沟通的意愿。卢拉表示， 美国的关税威胁让巴西感到"担忧"，而并非"害怕"，他不会屈服于美国的决定，无论美国是想打政治仗 还是想谈贸易，巴西都奉陪，但美国不应将政治问题和贸易问题混为一谈。 ...

美国总统特朗普对印度发出的关税威胁，正给本已步履蹒跚的印度股市带来新的冲击，并对严重依赖出口的行业构成直接打击。 7月30日，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称将从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税，高于对亚洲其他几个国家征收的15%至20%的区间。特朗普还威胁 将因印度从俄罗斯购买能源而施加额外惩罚。 特朗普威胁征收的25%关税预计将对印度多个行业造成直接冲击。尽管目前尚无关于具体行业关税税率和惩罚措施的明确信息，但以下行业被认为风险 最大： 医药：印度是美国最大的非专利药出口国，年出口额约80亿美元。印度太阳药业、瑞迪博士等大型药企至少30%的收入来自美国。根 据IQVIA的数据，2022年美国每10张处方中就有4张由印度公司提供。 （印 度孟买证券交易所SENSEX30指数低开近1%后小幅反弹） 据媒体报道，新美国安全中心（Center for a New American Security）的一位策略师表示，美印谈判出现了麻烦的迹象，包括美国希望印度进一步开放农 业市场。 这位策略师表示，农业对于印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪来说是"政治敏感"的领域，他可能无法在这个领域做出让步。这或许是导致谈判陷入僵局、并引发 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has reached new historical highs, with the S&P 500 hitting 6401 points and the Nasdaq reaching 21202 points, yet the market reaction has been surprisingly calm [1][3] - The recent 15% tariff agreement between the U.S. and EU is perceived as a temporary pause rather than a resolution, with the U.S. benefiting significantly from the deal [3][4] - The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkable V-shaped recovery, gaining 23% in just 89 trading days, resulting in a market capitalization increase of $10 trillion, driven largely by Nvidia's performance [4][6] Group 2 - 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations in Q2, indicating strong corporate profitability despite economic challenges [4][5] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has surged to 23, significantly above historical averages, raising concerns about market complacency and potential risks [5][6] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, are set to report earnings this week, which could significantly influence market sentiment [6][7] Group 3 - The U.S. LNG producers are among the first winners from the U.S.-EU tariff agreement, with stock prices soaring due to a $750 billion energy procurement commitment from the EU [7] - Tesla has secured a $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung, indicating strong demand for its AI chips and further solidifying its market position [7] - European companies are facing mixed results, with some experiencing sales declines due to retail price wars and rising production costs from tariffs [7]

智通财经APP获悉，美元汇率出现自 5 月初以来最大涨幅，有望实现今年的首次月度上涨。与此同时， 美国与欧盟达成的贸易协议再度引发了人们对关税对全球经济增长影响的担忧。周一，彭博美元现货指 数较主要同类指数上涨了 0.8%。尽管与年初相比仍大幅下跌，但7月迄今，该美元指数已上涨了 1.5%。 彭博宏观策略师指出："欧洲央行原本预计贸易摩擦会较为温和，但最终达成的协议却包含了更高的关 税以及更为严重的后果。这一误判如今正对美元造成重大影响。" 此举有助于缓解有关贸易的诸多担忧。美国和中国官员结束了为期两天的首轮会谈，此次会谈旨在将双 方的关税休战协议延长至 8 月中旬之后。 美国与欧盟于周末宣布达成15%税率关税协议，使得美元相对于 G10 组别中的所有货币汇率均有所上 升，其中欧元跌幅最大。因为投资者纷纷将美元视为避险货币，同时也在权衡关税对欧洲及全球经济增 长的影响。 富国银行的策略师Aroop Chatterjee说道："这表明，鉴于这些不对称的'协议'，实际的关税措施将对世 界其他地区的经济增长产生负面影响。" 该协议使得欧盟的出口商品所面临的关税水平远高于欧盟对美国进口商品征收的关税水平。欧盟委员会 ...

Group 1 - The European Chinese concept stock index surged by 2.3%, and South Korean semiconductor stocks rose collectively, indicating a positive market reaction to the upcoming negotiations between U.S. business leaders and China [1] - A Boeing 777 private jet is carrying U.S. business executives to China for direct commercial negotiations, aiming to alleviate ongoing trade tensions that have lasted for 25 months [1] - The delegation is led by FedEx CEO Subramaniam, with notable figures from Boeing and other sensitive sectors, highlighting the importance of the semiconductor supply chain in the discussions [1][3] Group 2 - Boeing has prepared for the negotiations by adding a fourth production line in Zhoushan, Zhejiang, and FedEx has upgraded its Shanghai sorting center, emphasizing the significance of tangible investments as negotiation leverage [3] - The U.S. economy faces severe challenges, including a 7% inflation rate and $40 trillion in national debt, exacerbated by the trade war, which has led to significant losses for American companies [5] - China's precise control over rare earth exports has critically impacted the U.S. high-tech industry, with American companies heavily reliant on Chinese supplies for production [7] Group 3 - The upcoming visit by the Trump team, including top CEOs like Musk and Huang, aims to strengthen U.S.-China relations, with potential benefits for both American and Chinese workers [9] - Successful negotiations could lead to reduced costs for Chinese consumers purchasing imported goods and job security for workers in both countries, indicating a possible turning point in U.S.-China trade relations [9]

Group 1 - The ongoing trade friction between China and the US has led to a significant decline in US energy exports to China, with imports of crude oil dropping to zero in June, marking the first time in three years [1][3] - The US shale oil industry is facing severe impacts due to the loss of the Chinese market, resulting in a dramatic drop in overseas sales and potential overcapacity risks [3][4] - China's ability to cut off US energy imports is attributed to increased tariffs making US energy products less competitive and its diversified energy supply strategy, including strong ties with Saudi Arabia and Russia [4][6] Group 2 - The Trump administration is under pressure from domestic energy sectors affected by the trade conflict, with significant job losses and investment reductions in key energy-producing states [6][8] - The upcoming third round of trade negotiations is critical for both countries, with the US seeking to address trade deficits and restore energy exports, while China aims to protect its rights and counter unreasonable trade restrictions [8] - China's strategic advantage in rare earth resources, which are crucial for high-end manufacturing and military applications, further strengthens its position in the trade negotiations [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" drives price adjustment expectations, and its realization requires a loose liquidity environment. Since multiple industries promoted "anti - involution", some commodity futures prices have risen, and the spot prices of coking coal and rebar have also increased. The PPI index needs downstream demand, especially fixed - asset investment demand for industrial products, and a relatively loose monetary liquidity environment to reverse the downward trend [2][11]. - The effectiveness of "anti - involution" is more compatible with a steepening yield curve. If price adjustment expectations are realized, overall inflation will stabilize, and future interest - rate cut expectations will decline. The degree of steepening depends on the repair of downstream demand, especially the real estate market [2][13]. - The initial trade agreement between the US and Japan may lead the US to seek a similar agreement with the EU, with a possible 15% tariff on most EU goods. The possibility of an agreement between the two sides has increased, and international trade friction risks have eased to some extent [2][13]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - "Anti - involution" has strengthened price adjustment expectations. As of July 25, coking coal and rebar futures have risen above last December's average. Spot prices of coking coal and rebar also increased in mid - July. The CITIC Futures PPI commodity index has reached last December's average, but reversing the PPI downward trend requires downstream demand and a loose liquidity environment [11]. - A large amount of high - frequency data is provided, including price changes in agricultural products, consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping, as well as their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [15][17]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, and export volume [20][30][32]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index, as well as the implied prospects of interest - rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [82][84][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented through charts, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month increases [94][98][103]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [142][144][146].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S.-China trade relations and the broader implications for global trade, particularly involving Europe and Japan. Core Points and Arguments - The U.S. is leveraging early engagement with China to apply pressure on Europe during trade negotiations, as the timeline for U.S.-EU talks precedes those with China [1][3] - The Trump administration has increased tariffs, with current agreements generally exceeding 15%, without significant negative impacts on the U.S. economy or stock market [1][3] - Europe faces multiple challenges, including deteriorating relations with China, a passive diplomatic stance due to U.S.-China thawing, and being outpaced by Japan in trade negotiations [1][6] - The upcoming U.S.-China talks in Stockholm aim to ease tensions and delay new tariffs, but a comprehensive agreement is unlikely in the short term [1][7] - U.S.-China leaders are expected to meet during the UN General Assembly in September and the APEC meeting in December, necessitating a reduction in trade friction beforehand [1][8] - The average tariff level imposed by the U.S. on China may stabilize around 40%, reflecting previous tariff structures on Southeast Asian trade [1][10] - Other topics of discussion in the upcoming meetings include TikTok transactions, rare earth supply chains, and Russian oil imports, with significant focus on the implications of secondary tariffs on Russian oil importers [1][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The U.S. is shifting its focus towards supply chain restructuring and international tax issues, moving away from a broad tariff approach to more targeted measures [2][12][13] - The Trump administration is investigating sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors to attract foreign investment back to the U.S. [14][18] - The trade negotiations since July have emphasized smaller economies to ensure domestic accountability while attempting to negotiate with larger economies like the EU and Japan [15] - The future direction of U.S.-China trade talks is expected to prioritize easing tensions and addressing specific issues rather than immediate tariff reductions [16]