【环球网财经综合报道】近期全球市场受关税政策扰动加剧，A股波动显著，避险情绪升温。多家头部券商与公 募基金密集发声，围绕权益市场、行业配置、宏观政策及资产布局展开深度研判。机构普遍认为，短期避险需求 下红利资产、债市及黄金或成资金"避风港"，而科技成长与内需消费板块的中长期配置价值正逐步显现。 在权益市场方面，中信证券指出，关税风波下风险资产承压，债市走牛逻辑清晰，具备高股息属性的红利资产或 成资金抵御波动的核心选择。中金公司李求索认为，中国资产中期机会大于风险，若政策应对得当，市场风险溢 价有望继续好转，短期建议以红利低波为主，中期关注AI产业回调后的布局机会。华夏基金强调，尽管关税争端 持续扰动市场，但中国科技企业的供应链韧性较强，以AI终端与应用为核心的产业趋势未改，本轮调整或带来年 内最佳买点。 在行业配置方面，申万宏源分析称，央企凭借稳定的国内市场需求、高ROE及抗关税冲击能力，当前具备显著配 置价值。中庚基金指出，中美关税博弈推升国内农产品价格预期，农林牧渔行业短期受益；而新能源板块因海外 需求不确定性承压，市场避险情绪升温。 此外，中金公司预计，二季度货币政策放松或加快，资金利率中枢下行将支撑债 ...

Key Insights on Local Government Bonds - The local government bonds can be classified based on project revenue attributes into general bonds and special bonds, and based on funding purposes into new bonds and refinancing bonds [2][4] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has increased from 6.3 years in 2015 to 14.8 years by February 2025, influenced by the relaxation of special bond issuance policies [5][11] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds is expected to reach around 1 trillion yuan in 2025, with new general bonds at 80 billion yuan and new special bonds at 440 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 2024 [11][12] Key Insights on the Technology Sector - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US may provide short-term protection for domestic tech industries but could weaken innovation and competitiveness in the long run [14] - The tariffs may lead to trade partner retaliation, increasing operational costs and uncertainties for tech companies in affected countries like China, while also accelerating their push for technological self-reliance [14][19] - The impact of tariffs on the tech sector is complex, with potential for both challenges and opportunities as companies adapt to new market conditions [14][19] Key Insights on the Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions, with the US's tariff policies having limited impact on domestic military industries due to their high level of self-sufficiency [18][22] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is anticipated to serve as a catalyst for the military industry, with increased investment opportunities [22] - The military sector's valuation is currently at 44.9%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the tech sector [22] Key Insights on the Chemical Industry - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60-70 USD per barrel, with industry cost pressures easing but requiring attention to inventory conversion losses [31][33] - The domestic economic stimulus policies are likely to enhance the potential for structural opportunities within the chemical industry, particularly in response to increased domestic demand [33]

重要的消息有哪些 1．昨日一早，中国人民银行和中央汇金公司重磅发声。中央汇金明确了自己是资本市场上的"国家队"，发挥着类"平准基金"作用。央行表示，必要时向中央汇金公 司提供充足的再贷款支持。（新华社） 2．4月8日，中国诚通控股集团有限公司董事会决定，根据中国人民银行、金融监管总局和中国证监会关于股票回购增持再贷款的相关规定，中国诚通拟使用股票 回购增持再贷款资金1000亿元，用于增持上市公司股票。作为国务院国资委的国有资本运营平台，中国诚通将始终以服务国家战略为导向，发挥长期资本、耐心资 本、战略资本作用，坚定维护资本市场稳定运行，努力为我国经济社会高质量发展作出积极贡献。 3．4月8日，全国社会保障基金理事会发布公告称，近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。在积极开展股票投资的同时实现基金安全和保值增值。 12．4月8日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，邀请江苏天合光能、浙江中基宁波、广东领益智造、北京滴滴出行、山东歌尔股份等5家民营企业与 会，听取宏观政策在微观主体的落实情况及建议，听取应对美加征关税的举措及建议，听取稳外贸、稳就业的意见及建议。国家发展改革委副主任郑备出席会议。 会上，5位 ...