截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3543.4美元/盎司，伦敦现货黄金报3469.86美元/盎司。这已是国际金价连续第五个交易日上涨。 黄金、白银期货价格9月双双迎来"开门红"。 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%，突破8月高点再创历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅扩 大至约35%。 同日，伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/盎司，距今年3500美元的历史高点仅不足1%。 此外，COMEX白银期货价格也于9月1日上午刷新历史新高，盘中最高触及41.64美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅达41%，超过黄金同期涨幅。 国际金价五连涨、 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/ 盎司。 多重利好刺激贵金属价格走高 谈及贵金属价格走高的原因，一位贵金属分析师对智通财经记者表示，主要是纽约期货相对于伦敦现货的溢价率回到年内高位，与二者关税预期 重新强化有关。剔除关税的因素，对应基本面就是白宫无视通胀预期走高强压美联储降息，宏观点说是降低美元资产信用，微观点说是再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and moderate PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in tech stocks caused a reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively. The revised Q2 GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by business investment, while analysts have raised their growth forecasts for Q3 U.S. economy [2][3][4]. Major Assets - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook raised concerns about the independence of the Fed. The July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index decreased by 0.06% to 97.77, and spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [3][4]. Overseas Economy - The Q2 GDP revision for the U.S. was +3.3%, surpassing the expected +3.1%, with fixed asset investment contributing significantly. Analysts have slightly upgraded their Q3 growth forecasts, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model at +2.22%. Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with analysts forecasting a CPI growth rate of 2.9% for Q3 [4][5]. Overseas Politics - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Fed's establishment in 1913, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, which is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14, allowing time for an appeal [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising gold prices driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the global financial market, with gold being increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - The internal power struggle within the Federal Reserve is causing challenges to the confidence in the US dollar, further boosting the demand for gold [1] - Analysts suggest that gold is becoming a strategic allocation in the current volatile market environment, especially as recession fears grow [1][3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable difference between international and domestic gold prices, with the Chinese market showing relative stability despite international prices reaching historical highs [2] - Factors influencing domestic gold prices include the demand for diversification, consumption trends, and currency fluctuations, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves significantly [2] - The gold ETF (518800) has shown stable performance over the past decade, making it an attractive investment option for those seeking liquidity and convenience [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.29% [1] - Key sectors that led the gains included precious metals, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, CPO, and storage chips [1] Gold and Mining ETFs Performance - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) closed with a significant increase of 8.41% [2] - The Mining ETF (561330) also saw a notable rise, closing up by 4.04% [3] Reasons for Market Uptrend - The anticipation of interest rate cuts has been a driving factor for the market's upward movement [4] - On August 28, Federal Reserve Governor Waller made dovish comments, indicating support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and potential further cuts in the next three to six months if economic data shows significant weakness [5] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to Trump's interventions, which may lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed [5] Precious Metals Outlook - In a loose monetary environment, there is optimism for precious metals and resource stocks [6] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, marking the ninth consecutive month of increases [6] Industrial Metals and Other Resources - The second half of the year may see limited deterioration in supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and domestic stimulus policies [7] - The copper consumption off-season is nearing its end, and pre-holiday stocking may provide price support [7] - The outlook for aluminum remains strong due to limited impact from U.S. tariffs and fundamental support [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the Mining ETF (561330) and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881), which track indices focused on the non-ferrous metals sector [8] - The Mining ETF focuses on companies with non-ferrous metal resources, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources amid global competition [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The trade war uncertainty remains, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European route) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2510 (main contract) closed at 1291.4, up 19.4; EC2511 (sub - main contract) closed at 1640.9, up 78.3. The main contract increased by 1.53%, and the far - month contracts increased by 1 - 5% [1]. - The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 was +15.7 higher; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 was - 115, up 32.1 [1]. - The EC contract basis was 488.6, down 240.6 [1]. - The main contract's open interest was 52271 lots, down 989 [1]. Spot Market - SCFIS (European route) was 1773.6, down 216.6 week - on - week, a 10.9% decline; SCFIS (US West Coast route) was 1013.9, down 27.48 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) was 1445.06, up 29.7 week - on - week; container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.07 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32, down 18.55 week - on - week; CCFI (European route) was 1685.8, down 71.94 [1]. - The Baltic Dry Index was 2025, down 8; the Panamax Freight Index was 1847, up 27. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14170, down 224; that of Capesize ships was 26105, up 782 [1]. Industry News - Chinese official Li Chenggang visited the US to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [1]. - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution of dismissing Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [1]. - Japan and the US are discussing measures such as reducing tariffs and a joint document on a $550 billion investment in the US [1]. Market Analysis - The "price war" in the container shipping industry has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. The US employment data in July was far below expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has soared. The internal demand in the eurozone is still weak [1]. Key Data to Focus On - Eurozone's preliminary August CPI annual rate at 17:00 on September 2nd - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 on September 2nd - US August ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00 on September 2nd [1]

01弯道超车机会！黄金投资需求强劲 2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，全球黄金总需求在今年前两季度大幅跃升45%，达 1,320亿美元。投资总需求（含场外交易）增长3%，至1,249吨。实物金需求稳定上扬，全球黄金的投资 需求也实现连续增长，这两方面的强劲需求，是助推黄金连续攀高的关键所在。市场投资热度高涨，投 资机会随处可见。 02三驾马车推动，黄金强势格局成形 投资需求、实物金需求强劲，黄金的基本面也逐步破局。一是关税战引发的贸易局势动荡，一是地缘局 势进展，再则美联储议息进展。随着新关税正式落地，金融市场不确定性加剧，黄金的货币属性再被唤 醒；同时，俄乌局势及至中东地缘因素，扰动市场避险情绪，引致黄金居高不下；最后，千呼万唤的降 息呼声，在9月或发出全新信号，三者共振，引爆黄金强需求模式，这一轮结构性强势格局或已成型 ——多重因素或共振支撑金价突破。 美国非农突然疲软，6月PCE意外走升，一升一降之下，降息预期大幅反转，美联储9月行动信号强势重 启，票委戴利发声称，美联储2025年内应降息两次！黄金多头重新积聚，新一轮结构性格局就此形成， 藉此良机，领峰环球$30000炒金大礼包惊喜送到，新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward cycle, with international gold prices showing strong performance and technical indicators suggesting robust buying support. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - In August, international gold prices increased by 4.81%, marking the best monthly performance in nearly four months, with spot gold closing at $3448.01 per ounce and reaching a high of $3453.82, just 0.15% away from the historical peak in April [1] - As of September, gold prices are maintaining high levels, trading within the $3445 range, indicating strong buying support from a technical perspective [1] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. PCE price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, which has increased the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 85% to 87% [3] - Lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weaken the dollar's attractiveness, creating a dual positive effect for gold prices [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Factors - The U.S. dollar index fell by 2.2% in August, the largest monthly decline in several months, enhancing gold's appeal to non-U.S. currency investors [4] - The U.S. bond market is showing divergence, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 33 basis points to 3.619%, reflecting expectations of lower short-term rates, while long-term yields slightly increased due to month-end repositioning [4] Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for August is a focal point for the market; weak data could accelerate rate cut expectations and push gold prices to new highs, while strong data may suppress short-term gains [5] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, indicating growing public concern over rising prices, which may further enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Outlook - In a Kitco gold survey, 86% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue rising next week, with no bearish views, while 68% of online poll participants are optimistic about price increases [7] - The ability of gold prices to break historical highs will depend on two main factors: the confirmation of economic cooling trends from September employment data and the dovishness of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold reaching as high as $3485 per ounce, marking a rise of over $80 per ounce within a week and a 3.5% increase over five consecutive days [1] - Gold ETFs (518680) have also shown strong performance, opening higher and recording a gain of over 2.1% during the day, with a cumulative increase of 3.53% over the past six trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including a call for a 25 basis point rate cut, have further fueled expectations for rate cuts in the near future, supported by recent economic data showing cooling employment and inflation in line with expectations [1] Group 2 - Gold ETF (518680) tracks the Shanghai Gold Concentrated Pricing Contract (SHAU) and has the lowest management and custody fees in the market at 0.15% and 0.05%, respectively, which may enhance investors' ability to capitalize on gold investment opportunities [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and with Trump's continuous pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.84 yuan compared to the previous day and 6.36 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 27,326.00, a decrease of 4,610.00 compared to the previous day and 3,616.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,451.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 84.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 25.10 dollars compared to the previous week. The London gold spot price was 3,407.65 dollars/ounce, with a change of 31.30 dollars compared to the previous day and 63.00 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, with a change of -8.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 9.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 454,162.00, a decrease of 66,052.00 compared to the previous day and 45,116.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 39.71 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.82 dollars compared to the previous week. The London silver spot price was 38.22 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.72 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.86 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US appeal court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, but they remained in effect until the lawsuit was completed. The US January core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US July production - end inflation PFI annual rate and consumer - end inflation core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point might require policy adjustment, making the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September almost certain [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank suspended rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone and German and French August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9, higher than expected and the previous value, so the European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK July consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.8% (3.8%) and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The UK August SPCI manufacturing (service) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, so the Bank of Japan still has the expectation of raising interest rates before the end of 2025, and the earliest time may be October [1]. Trading Strategy - Due to the Fed's possible rate cut in September, Trump's continuous pressure, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].