Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - International gold prices have risen significantly, with spot gold reaching $4218.55 per ounce and COMEX gold futures at $4256.4 per ounce as of the morning of the 29th [1] - Silver prices have also surged, with spot silver breaking the $56 per ounce mark, and New York silver futures closing at $57.16 per ounce, marking a 6.6% increase [3] - Copper prices have hit a record high, with LME copper rising nearly 2.5% to $11,210.50 per ton [3] Group 2: Market Influences and Predictions - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from about 50% to nearly 90%, contributing to the rebound in gold prices [5] - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline by 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [5] - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, which will support silver prices [5] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its target for gold prices to reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and declining interest rates [8] - UBS strategists believe there is further upside potential for silver prices in the coming year, raising their forecast by $5 to $8 per ounce, with expectations for prices to reach $60 per ounce by 2026 [8] - Overall, the precious metals market is expected to continue a strong oscillating trend in the short term, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement for silver prices [8]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 美元债双周报（25 年第 47 周） 弱于大市 经济数据陆续发布，降息预期大幅抬升 新美联储主席人选或在圣诞前宣布，热门候选人主张 12 月降息。11 月 25 日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国总统特朗普极有可能在今 年圣诞节前，提名美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。鲍威尔当前任期将于 2026年 5月结束，但特朗普此前已多次公开批评其货币政策并要求辞职。 而下一届联储主席热门候选人沃勒表示，他主张在 12 月降息。他指出， 最新数据显示劳动力市场依然疲软，不过一旦明年 1 月收到大量经济数 据后，美联储大概可以采取"逐次会议"决定的方式。与此同时，旧金 山联储主席戴利也表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是她认为就 业市场突然恶化的可能性更大，且比通胀飙升更难管理。 美国 9 月 PPI 核心通胀继续放缓。11 月 25 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 因政府停摆而延迟的的报告，数据显示显示核心通胀持续放缓。9 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.3%符合预期，主要受能源和食品价格推动；但剔除这两项的 核心 PPI 环比仅涨 0.1%，不及预期的 0.2%。同比方面，核心 PPI ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate remains at a low level of -$40 per ton. Disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia continue, and the global shortage of copper ore supports copper prices [4]. - The copper consumption in power, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased significantly, offsetting the weakness in traditional sectors, and the demand is relatively resilient [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is volatile, and the strengthening of the US dollar increases the cost of purchasing copper. The non - farm payrolls in the US in September exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, intensifying concerns about liquidity [4]. - The LME copper inventory increased by 16.08% week - on - week to 158,000 tons, reflecting weak overseas demand and suppressing the rebound of copper prices [4]. - The game between supply and demand continues, with the contradiction between supply shortage and high inventory. In the short term, copper prices will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the rhythm of terminal restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Open Interest | Weekly Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 87,430 | 2.07% | 218,257 | 28,039 | 94,508 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 87,377 | 2.04% | 546,511 | 29,036 | 194,048 | | International Copper | 78,770 | 3.21% | 1,289 | - 2,040 | 2,580 | | LME Copper 3 - month | 10,930 | 2.28% | 239,014 | - 38,282 | 10,519 | | COMEX Copper | 516.25 | 4.22% | 134,293 | 65,265 | 12,165 | [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 87,400 | 1,585 | 1.85% | | Shanghai Wumaomao | Yuan/ton | 87,360 | 1,490 | 1.74% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 87,390 | 1,490 | 1.73% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 87,440 | 1,460 | 1.7% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 110 | 20 | 22.22% | | Shanghai Wumaomao Premium | Yuan/ton | 65 | 5 | 8.33% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 105 | 20 | 23.53% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 16.56 | 35.45 | - 187.67% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium | US dollars/ton | 166.25 | 48.57 | 41.27% | [11][12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 860.94 | - 370.97 | 75.71% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.15 | - 0.43 | 1.03% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 4.0517 | 0.0447 | 1.12% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | Yuan/ton | 3,543.83 | 868.94 | 32.49% | [13] Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 35,244 | - 14,546 | - 29.21% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt: Total | Tons | 5,502 | - 700 | - 11.29% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | Tons | 97,930 | - 12,673 | - 11.46% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 151,100 | 2,650 | 1.79% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 6,075 | - 3,400 | - 35.88% | | LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 157,175 | - 750 | - 0.47% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 194,336 | 20,085 | 11.53% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | Tons | 223,330 | 5,903 | 2.71% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 417,666 | 25,988 | 6.64% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | 10,000 tons | 59.6 | 6.6 | 12.45% | | Social Inventory | 10,000 tons | 41.82 | 0.43 | 1.04% | [18][21] Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 120.4 | 8.9 | 1,229.5 | 9.7 | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 200.4 | - 3.3 | 2,012.4 | 5.9 | [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 1,584 | 56.2 | - 9.03 | - 5.35 | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 819 | 24.11 | - 1.26 | - 1.69 | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 359 | 63.84 | - 2.4 | - 8.4 | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 228.65 | 50.13 | - 0.77 | 0.1 | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 278.3 | 52.57 | - 6.87 | - 15.63 | [26] Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 10,000 tons or % | 245.1487 | 6 | 2,511.8228 | 8 | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 55,239 | - 8 | 634,011 | - 15 | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 279,944 | - 22 | 2,817,921 | - 6 | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 196,607 | 7 | 1,895,530 | 2 | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 10 - 31 | Tons or % | 440,000 | - 13.5 | 4,460,000 | - 3.1 | [30]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4200 per ounce, marking a nearly 1% increase, with COMEX gold futures also rising to $4222.8 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices showed significant increases, with various brands reporting daily price changes [2] - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength, enhancing gold's appeal [3] Group 2 - Predictions indicate that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce by Q1 2026, reflecting an average increase of 8% to 12% [3] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to continue influencing international gold price trends [3] - Macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly fluctuations in Federal Reserve monetary policy, may lead to price volatility in the gold market [3]

铝周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 供应扰动叠加氛围偏暖，铝价回升 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422万吨（建成产能4578万吨），行业开工率月度环比维稳；11月电解铝 产量环比减少2.8%、同比增长1.5%，预计12月运行产能环比小幅增加。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，本周四铝锭库存录得59万吨，较上周四下降2.3万吨。保税区库存录得6.1万吨，较上周下降0.2万吨。本周四 铝棒库存合计14.4万吨，较上周四下降0.8万吨。LME全球铝库存录得53.9万吨，较上周减少0.7万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走弱，LME市场 Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1.8%，同比增加42.2%。1-10月累 ...

来源|每日经济新闻 11月28日晚间，现货黄金（伦敦金现）直线拉升，盘中一度突破4200美元/盎司，刷新近两周盘中新高。截至发稿，现货黄金报4198.020美元/盎 司，涨近1%，COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4222.8美元/盎司。 截至A股收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.65%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.06%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨1.39%。 消息面上，本周多位美联储官员释放鸽派言论，12月再次降息的可能性依然存在。根据预测平台数据，鸽派候选人凯文·哈塞特已成为下一任美联储 主席的热门人选，外界普遍预期他将落实特朗普大幅降息的呼吁。 有市场分析指出，周五美国没有重要的经济数据公布，因此黄金将主要受美联储降息预期和整体风险情绪的影响。而12月降息已成为市场主流预 期，大幅削弱了美元的中期强势基础。与此同时，未来的政策制定层面大概率继续支持低利率环境，这进一步强化了黄金的中期吸引力。 据中国黄金网，展望2026年一季度，市场普遍认为未来国际金价存在偏向温和上涨机会，预计国际金价区间在4200~4500美元/盎司，平均涨幅 8%~12%。尤其是央行购金及机构增持黄金ETF或将 ...

当地时间周四，芝商所集团遭遇系统故障，全球外汇、大宗商品及股票期货交易停滞近11小时。故障后 白银和铜价飙升创纪录新高，白银受美联储降息预期、资金流入ETF、供应紧张等因素支撑，铜价则因 供应短缺和看涨预测上涨。市场猜测故障与白银价格突破有关，但芝商所称是技术性问题。详情>> 六大国有行停售5年期大额存单，存款利率或下行 来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上今日财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及政策更 新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 头部券商副总裁违规炒股，被罚没1.35亿 11月28日晚间，江苏证监局公布罚单，某头部券商原副总裁陈某涛，利用未公开信息交易股票盈利1875 万元，违规买卖证券盈利2640万元，合计被罚没1.35亿元，还被采取8年和5年的证券市场禁入措施。陈 某涛曾申辩称自己为金融行业作过贡献，请求减轻处罚，但未被证监局采纳。详情>> 日本增发巨额国债刺激经济，债汇市场承压 11月28日消息，日本政府拟增发约11.7万亿日元国债，为新一轮经济刺激方案提 ...

Core Insights - Traditional financial institutions that once dismissed high-leverage perpetual contracts are now embracing them, indicating a significant shift in the cryptocurrency landscape [1] - The regulatory environment is evolving from "whether to regulate" to "how to regulate," with countries like Belarus and Australia taking steps to implement stricter regulations [3] - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a liquidity surge, with Bitcoin rebounding to $90,000, driven by institutional investments and improved market conditions [4] - The labor market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, which could impact the cryptocurrency market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve signals [5] - A new wave of options trading is emerging, with decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid enabling broader access to options contracts, challenging traditional financial structures [7] - Asset security is becoming increasingly important for traders, with decentralized wallets offering control over private keys, emphasizing the need for proper security practices [8][9] - The current environment presents both opportunities and challenges for cryptocurrency traders, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of policies, macroeconomic indicators, and risk management [11] Regulatory Developments - Belarus is focusing on cryptocurrency regulation by creating a blacklist of wallets associated with criminal activities and implementing taxation on crypto transactions [3] - Australia is introducing new legislation to enhance oversight of cryptocurrency platforms, while Hong Kong is seeing increased donations from the crypto industry [3] Market Dynamics - A significant influx of nearly $300 billion into the cryptocurrency market has led to a strong recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices [4] - The Nasdaq International Securities Exchange has applied to the SEC to increase the position limit for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust options, potentially positioning Bitcoin as a core institutional tool [4] Labor Market Impact - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with October layoffs reaching a 20-year high, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and highlighting the cryptocurrency market's vulnerability [5] Trading Innovations - The introduction of options trading on decentralized platforms is revolutionizing the market, with Hyperliquid's new protocol allowing for the creation of Nasdaq 100 index options [7] - Traders must adapt to new trading strategies involving options and structured products to remain competitive in the evolving landscape [7] Security Considerations - The rise of decentralized exchanges necessitates a focus on asset security, with traders responsible for managing their private keys and understanding the importance of mnemonic phrases [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the forex and gold markets next week will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with expectations of a rate cut and the dollar's performance dominating market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for December 9-10, with a market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, and Powell's press conference will provide further guidance on future policies [2]. - The market's expectation for a rate cut has surged to 85%-90%, significantly higher than about 50% a week ago, influenced by a series of weak U.S. economic data [2]. - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. October PCE data, non-farm payroll data for October and November, and the potential nomination of a dovish Fed chair [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The short-term trend of the gold market remains influenced by Federal Reserve policies, with gold prices finding support around $4100 per ounce and briefly touching above $4140 [3]. - Key resistance for gold is at $4200, with a potential challenge to $4245 if this level is breached, while $4100 serves as the main support [8]. Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, expected to record its worst weekly performance since July, with 99.00 as a critical support level [5]. - Non-USD currencies may experience a rebound, particularly if progress is made in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which could provide upward momentum for the euro [5]. - The Australian and Canadian dollars typically benefit from a weaker dollar and a recovery in global risk appetite [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies and Risk Management - In the uncertain market environment next week, risk management is crucial, with suggestions to consider range trading for gold between $4100 and $4200 before the Fed decision [7]. - For forex trading, monitoring the dollar index's support at 99.00 is essential, with potential short positions on the dollar against major non-USD currencies if this level is breached [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global focus in the foreign exchange and gold markets will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with expectations of a rate cut influencing the dollar's performance and creating volatility opportunities for non-US currencies [1] Group 1: Key Events and Data - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for December 9-10, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, and Powell's press conference will provide important policy guidance [2] - The US October PCE data, a key inflation indicator for the Fed, has been released and will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policy [2] - The US non-farm payroll data for October-November is due on December 5, which could alter market expectations for the Fed's future policy [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with the probability of a cut rising to 85%-90% according to CME's FedWatch tool, up from 50% a week prior, driven by weak US economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials [3] - Despite the consensus, there remains some internal market disagreement regarding the rate cut, with Powell's hawkish comments keeping some investors cautious [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are expected to closely follow Fed policy dynamics, currently supported around $4100 per ounce and having touched above $4140, indicating a high-level fluctuation [3] - Key resistance for gold is at $4200, with a potential challenge to the November 13 high of $4245 if this level is breached [4] - The primary support for gold is at $4100, with a potential test of the 20-day SMA near $4045 if it breaks below [5] Group 4: Currency Market Insights - The US dollar is weakening, providing opportunities for non-US currencies, with the dollar index expected to record its worst weekly performance since July [6] - The key support level for the dollar index is at 99.00, and a break below this could open up further downside potential [7] - The euro is finding support around 1.1600, with any progress in Russia-Ukraine talks potentially strengthening the euro further [8] - The USD/JPY pair is experiencing complex movements due to Fed rate cut expectations and the Bank of Japan's easing policy [8] - The GBP/USD is influenced by the UK budget announcement, with market attention on its implications for the economy and Bank of England policy [9] - Commodity currencies like the AUD and CAD typically perform well during periods of dollar weakness and rising global risk appetite [10]