具体来看，近期美国公布的零售销售数据不及预期，生产者价格指数涨幅也表现温和，这强化了货币政 策可能转向的猜测。与此同时，美元走软以及市场对下任美联储主席人选的预测，进一步增强了黄金的 吸引力。利率期货市场数据显示，交易员对12月降息的预期概率已大幅上升至85%，远高于前一周的 50%，为金价提供了有力支撑。 总体而言，这清晰地揭示了经济数据与政策预期如何共同影响市场，推动黄金价格显著走高。在美元疲 软和降息概率上升的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的地位得到进一步巩固。 市场预期已明显转向押注12月降息，这一预期主要受到美联储官员的鸽派言论和近期温和的经济数据所 推动。从收益率角度看，这些因素共同提振了金价。 来源：市场资讯 文章来源：汇通财经 近日，黄金市场表现强劲，价格攀升至近一年高位，这一走势与市场对美联储降息预期升温密切相关。 ...

全球市场11月收官战打响。 本月，科技股抛售潮掀大风暴，全球股市普遍飘绿。 美股期间剧烈震荡，AI泡沫恐慌围绕英伟达迅速蔓延科技板块，月末稍有回暖。 亚太市场刮起的风暴也豪不逊色，日韩股市全线重挫，港A股表现低迷。 其中，日股11月累跌4.12%，终结月线7连升；韩股累跌4.4%，创2024年1月以来最大单月跌幅。 港A股悉数走低，恒科指本月跌5.23%领跌在前，创业板指累跌超4%，沪指终结月线6连涨，深证成指连续第二个月下跌，北证50大跌逾12%。 科技恐慌扰动全球 11月，A股三大指数集体下跌，沪指跌1.67%报3888点，终结月线6连涨。 深证成指跌2.95%报12984点，创业板指跌4.23%报3052点，北证50指数大跌12.32%报1387点，科创50指数跌6.24%报1327点。 板块方面，近20个交易日涨幅前五的板块为医药商业涨6.65%、教育涨5.1%、石油加工贸易涨4.83%、文化传媒涨4.71%、服装家纺涨4.5%。 同期，跌幅前五的板块为证券跌6.16%、电机跌5.85%、自动化设备跌5.33%、汽车零部件跌5.07%、医疗服务跌4.58%。 港股月初冲高挑战阶段新高未果，随即持续回落 ...

11月28日，受降息预期升温、地缘政治风险再现双重催化，金价强势突破4220美元关口。截至A股收 盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.65%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.06%，有色金属ETF基金（516650） 涨1.39%。 每日经济新闻 有市场分析指出，周五美国没有重要的经济数据公布，因此黄金将主要受美联储降息预期和整体风险情 绪的影响。而12 月降息已成为市场主流预期，大幅削弱了美元的中期强势基础。与此同时，未来的政 策制定层面大概率继续支持低利率环境，这进一步强化了黄金的中期吸引力。 消息面上，本周多位美联储官员释放鸽派言论，12月再次降息的可能性依然存在。根据预测平台数据， 鸽派候选人凯文·哈塞特已成为下一任美联储主席的热门人选，外界普遍预期他将落实特朗普大幅降息 的呼吁。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [63]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a decline of 6.87% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.90 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's fluctuating interest rate expectations have led to continued volatility in metal prices, particularly in industrial metals, which are expected to maintain upward momentum due to improving supply-demand dynamics [6][56]. - Precious metals have shown resilience, with gold prices rising significantly, supported by a declining dollar credit, while lithium prices are recovering due to tightening supply conditions and new growth opportunities in energy storage [57][58]. Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the LME copper price was $10,930/ton, aluminum at $2,831.50/ton, lead at $1,983.50/ton, zinc at $3,022/ton, nickel at $14,840/ton, and tin at $37,925/ton [24]. - The COMEX gold price reached $4,189.60/oz, up $175.9 since early November, while silver was at $53.83/oz, up $5.92 [33][57]. - Lithium carbonate futures were priced at ¥95,800/ton, reflecting a recovery of ¥13,500 since early November, and cobalt prices increased to ¥401,300/ton [37][58]. Industry Analysis by Subsector Industrial Metals - The report notes that the supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum continues to improve, with prices expected to have upward momentum due to macroeconomic easing [6][56]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with prices expected to continue rising due to a weakening dollar [57][58]. Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the upward trend in lithium prices driven by tightening supply and new growth opportunities in energy storage and solid-state batteries [58]. Minor Metals - The rare earth price index was reported at 207.92, with some prices like praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing, while others like dysprosium and terbium saw declines [41][58]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector, and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) in the energy metals sector due to their strong performance and growth potential [6][59].

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, leading to the potential for the best weekly performance in global stock markets since June [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a system failure that disrupted futures trading, affecting major products like S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures [1] - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] Group 2 - Spot silver is stabilizing around $54 per ounce, potentially achieving its longest streak of monthly gains since 1980 [4] - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.1% and the German DAX flat, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.2% [5] - Brent crude oil prices are holding above $63 per barrel but are on track for a fourth consecutive month of decline, the longest since May 2023 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of a comprehensive immigration policy aimed at tightening immigration from "third world countries," which may further constrict the labor supply in the U.S. amid weakening non-farm employment data, potentially leading to a prolonged economic slowdown [1][5][7]. Immigration Policy - Trump announced a "permanent suspension" of immigration from all "third world countries" to restore the U.S. system, without specifying which countries are included [3][4]. - The policy includes terminating federal benefits and subsidies for non-citizens and expelling immigrants deemed a burden on public policy or incompatible with Western civilization [3][6]. - Following a shooting incident involving a National Guard member linked to an Afghan citizen, Trump intensified his stance on immigration, targeting unspecified "third world countries" and non-citizen federal benefits [2][4]. Labor Market Impact - The U.S. non-farm employment market is transitioning from "overheated" to a "slow and fragile" chronic recession, with only 119,000 jobs added in September, indicating a significant slowdown [5][7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, up from 4.1% a year ago, and average hourly wage growth has slowed to 3.8%, still above the 2% inflation target [5][6]. - Approximately 31 million immigrant workers are currently in the U.S., and large-scale deportations could threaten the labor market, particularly in agriculture, construction, and healthcare sectors [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The tightening of immigration policies may lower labor growth rates, increase wages and labor costs in certain industries, and reduce potential economic output [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve has acknowledged the softening job market through two interest rate cuts this year, while Trump's immigration policies may further restrict labor supply amidst already weakening employment conditions [6][7]. - The overall labor market is expected to resemble a "chronic recession," which could drag the U.S. economy into a prolonged period of slow or negative growth, complicating the Fed's policy stance between job preservation and inflation control [7].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have started to rise again, maintaining around 1321 CNY per gram, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram from Chow Sang Sang, and the lowest at 1222 CNY per gram from Shanghai China Gold, resulting in a price difference of 106 CNY per gram [1] - Various brand gold prices have increased, with notable rises including Lao Miao at 1321 CNY (+5 CNY), Liufu at 1319 CNY (+9 CNY), and Chow Sang Sang at 1328 CNY (+10 CNY) [1] - Platinum prices have also seen a slight increase, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry priced at 654 CNY per gram, up by 2 CNY [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 6.5 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands, such as the recycling price for gold at 938.50 CNY per gram [2] - Other notable recycling prices include Cai Zi at 914.50 CNY, Chow Sang Sang at 903.80 CNY, and Lao Feng Xiang at 922.00 CNY [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price closed at 4157.27 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.12%, while it temporarily rose to 4179.44 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.53% increase [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the US Thanksgiving holiday leading to low market activity, alongside mixed factors from expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [4] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to consolidate in the short term, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing safe-haven demand, and central bank gold purchases [4]

对于铜价，新湖期货表示，本周降息预期升温，宏观情绪好转，叠加铜供需偏紧的基本面，铜价偏强运 行。近期铜价回落提振国内消费，国内库存小幅去化；LME库存虽有所累库，但库存绝对量偏低，全 球非美市场铜库存整体亦处于低位，低库存给予铜价向上弹性。 现货市场采销氛围一般。市场上货源相对有限，升水继续支撑上行，铜价走势震荡偏强，下游消费亦无 亮点，周末前按需补库。今日好铜稀少升水坚挺，平水铜部分品牌维持较大价差，鲁方祥光等部分报价 最高接近百元水平，中条山ISA报价站稳平水上方小幅升水，湿法铜报价稀少，非注册听闻在贴180上 下。 （文华综合 编辑：孙榕） 沪铜早间小幅低开，随后持续走强，收盘上涨0.41%。最近美联储降息预期较强，宏观氛围偏暖，铜市 供应端存在支撑，国内社库也有回落，铜价继续偏强震荡。 日本矿业协会（JMIA）负责人周四表示，日本铜冶炼厂正在和全球矿产商就2026年加工精炼费(TC/RC) 进行谈判，寻求达成与中国设定的基准不同的协议。临近年底，各国冶炼商和矿商对于明年长单加工费 的谈判正在进行当中，当前的现货加工费极低，部分冶炼厂认为当前加工费已触及自身承受的底线水 平，继续下探的空间不大。 铜价高 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - term iron ore inventory is not accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, the fundamentals have improved, the continuous price decline of coking coal supports the iron ore price, and combined with the marginal repair of macro - risk preference, the iron ore valuation is being repaired. Currently, there is not much contradiction between the iron ore valuation and fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate at a high level [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range is 770 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 16.74% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] - **Risk Management Strategy** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (using I2601, short, 25%, entry range 820 - 830) and sell call options to collect premiums (using I2601 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (using I2601, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options (using I2601 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors** - Low port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - and high - grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis [3] - The significant price drop of coking coal, a major raw material, when steel mill profits are low, provides short - term support for iron ore prices [3] - Steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3] - The Fed's dovish stance has led to the resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation to over 80% [3] - **Likely Negative Factors** - During the domestic macro - vacuum period, high - frequency economic data is weak but not weak enough to force the introduction of economic stimulus policies [3] - Overall iron ore shipments are relatively high, and there is no shortage of overall spot (but there is a structural shortage) [3] 3.3 Price Data - **Futures Contract Closing Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 799.5, 773, and 748 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 14, 17, and 17.5 respectively [3] - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 0.5, 26, and 51 respectively on November 28, 2025, with daily changes of - 1.5, 1.5, and 1.5 respectively and weekly changes of - 4, - 13, and - 13 respectively [3] - **Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 794 and 885 respectively, with daily changes of - 5 and - 5 respectively and weekly changes of 4 and 2 respectively [3] - **Platts Index**: On November 27, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.4, 107.45, and 119.5 respectively, with daily changes of 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 respectively and weekly changes of 2.1, 2.7, and 2.75 respectively [4] 3.4 Fundamental Data | Indicator | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot - metal output | 236.28 | - 0.6 | - 3.62 | | 45 - port desilting volume | 329.92 | 2.97 | 17.27 | | Apparent demand for five major steel products | 888 | - 6 | - 28 | | Global shipments | 3278.4 | - 238 | - 110 | | Australia - Brazil shipments | 2597.5 | - 236.1 | - 247 | | 45 - port arrivals | 2817.1 | 548.2 | 788 | | 45 - port inventory | 15054.65 | - 75.06 | 631.06 | | 247 steel - mill inventory | 9001.23 | - 74.78 | - 77.96 | | 247 steel - mill available days | 30.86 | - 0.16 | 0.23 | [12]

Group 1 - The gold market is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with probabilities maintained above 80% [2] - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are creating risk-averse sentiment that impacts gold prices [2] - Technically, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation pattern, with key resistance at the $4190-$4200 range and support at $4100-$4110 [2] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests short positions at the $4190-$4200 range with a target around $4150 and a stop-loss at $4210 [3] - A support strategy indicates long positions in the $4120-$4130 range, targeting $4150-$4190 with a stop-loss at $4107 [3] - Market liquidity may remain thin due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, potentially amplifying price volatility [4]