此外，美国能源信息署(EIA)近日表示，美国今年石油产量预计将创下比此前预期更大的纪录。EIA将 2025年的石油产量预测上调2万桶，至平均1361万桶/日，将创纪录新高。不过，该机构将2026年的总产 量预测下调5万桶，至平均1353万桶/日。EIA上调今年美国产量预测，强化了对石油市场将出现供应过 剩的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，石油股延续跌势，截至发稿，中石油(00857)跌2.26%，报8.23港元；中石化(00386) 跌2.05%，报4.3港元；中海油服(02883)跌0.55%，报7.18港元。 消息面上，近日，全球商品贸易巨头托克集团发出警告称，随着明年国际原油市场的新增供应撞上经济 放缓周期，石油市场将出现"超级供应过剩"的局面。分析人士指出，鉴于将涌入的大量新增供应可能会 与疲弱的需求正面碰撞，已处于低位的原油价格可能在明年进一步走弱。截至12月10日盘中，布伦特原 油年内已经下跌17%，接近创下2020年以来最差表现。 ...

Oil Market - Crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive day due to concerns over oversupply and falling refined oil prices, with WTI crude down 1.1% to approximately $58 per barrel [2][6] - The spread between gasoline and crude oil prices has reached its weakest level since February, indicating a significant drop in refined oil demand [2][6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record average of 13.61 million barrels per day this year, exacerbating concerns over short-term oversupply [2][6] Precious Metals - Silver prices surged above $60 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy [3][8] - The spot silver price increased by 4.5% to $60.79 per ounce, supported by tight supply conditions in the market [9][10] - Gold prices also rose, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in precious metals due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][10] Base Metals - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs, with a recent peak of $11,771 per ton, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [11][12] - The 14-day relative strength index for copper has recently surpassed 70, indicating potential overextension in price increases [11] - LME copper closed down 1.3% at $11,487 per ton, with other base metals like aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin, and lead also experiencing declines [12]

Oil Market - Crude oil prices fell significantly, marking the largest decline in nearly three weeks, driven by a drop in refined oil markets and concerns over Russian oil supply to India [2][3] - WTI crude futures dropped by 2%, settling at approximately $58.88 per barrel, influenced by a downturn in the US stock market [4][13] - Analysts predict that concerns over oversupply will materialize, with Brent crude futures potentially falling to $60 per barrel by 2026 [3][13] Refined Oil - Gasoline futures decreased by 2%, previously hitting the lowest level since May 2021, while diesel prices also softened, impacting the entire energy commodity sector [3][13] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices declined as US bond yields rose, with traders focusing on potential shifts in monetary policy following the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut [6][16] - Silver fell by 0.4% to $58.12 per ounce, while gold dropped by 0.1% [17] Base Metals - Copper prices reached a historic high of $11,771 per ton amid global supply constraints and increased US inventory accumulation [7][8] - A potential shortfall of 450,000 tons in global refined copper supply is expected by 2026 due to rising US inventory levels [9][18] - LME copper rose by 0.1% to $11,635.5 per ton, while other base metals showed mixed performance [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have experienced their largest decline in nearly three weeks, driven by traders' focus on India's purchase of Russian crude oil and a significant drop in the refined oil market, which has negatively impacted the entire energy sector [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2%, settling at approximately $58.88 per barrel [2][5]. - February Brent crude oil dropped by 2%, closing at $62.49 per barrel [3][7]. - The decline in oil prices is also attributed to a downturn in the U.S. stock market [5]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Despite facing severe sanctions due to the conflict in Ukraine, Russian President Putin has committed to maintaining uninterrupted oil supplies to India [5]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, including Vivek Dhar, express concerns that fears of oversupply will materialize, particularly as Russian crude and refined oil potentially circumvent existing sanctions, predicting Brent crude could fall to $60 per barrel by 2026 [5]. Group 3: Refined Oil Market - Gasoline futures fell by 2%, previously reaching the lowest levels since May 2021 [5]. - Diesel prices also weakened, contributing to the overall decline in the energy commodities sector [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The ongoing potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia remains a focal point for the market, with U.S. President Trump expressing disappointment in Ukrainian President Zelensky's handling of the proposed peace agreement [5]. - Currently, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have remained below the 100-day moving average for nearly the longest period in a year, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market ahead of anticipated oversupply [5].

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil futures prices experienced a sudden drop, with WTI crude oil falling below $60, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Price Movements - As of 20:00, WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude, and ICE light low-sulfur crude all declined by approximately 1% [1]. - WTI crude oil was reported at $59.46, down by $0.62 or 1.03% [2]. - ICE light low-sulfur crude opened at $59.88, closing at $59.11, reflecting a decrease of $0.67 or 1.12% [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent fluctuations in the European situation, combined with increased oil inventories in the U.S. and the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, have led to a subdued trading environment, resulting in a narrow trading range for oil prices [3]. - A report from Yong'an Futures indicated that the lack of clear progress in the Russia-Ukraine agreement could lead to a significant rebound in Russian oil exports, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices [4]. - The OPEC+ decision to continue increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a pause in increases planned for the first quarter of next year, suggests ongoing supply surplus pressures, indicating a risk of downward price adjustments in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (12.1-12.5) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶60.14美元，周涨2.84%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 63.86美元，周涨2.47%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至457.1元/桶，周涨0.71%。供应方面，机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定， 该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。地缘局势方面，俄罗斯原 油因不可抗力供应减少的预期利好油价，位于新罗西斯克的里海管道集团公司系泊设施29日遭无人艇袭击，乌克兰消息人 ...

新华财经新加坡12月6日电（记者刘春涛）新加坡华侨银行（OCBC）全球市场研究团队近日发布2026 年上半年大宗商品展望报告。报告指出，受益于结构性需求转变及宏观环境支持，贵金属（黄金、白 银）在2026年预计将继续保持上涨势头，其中黄金期末目标价上看4800美元／盎司；相比之下，原油市 场受供应过剩影响，价格中枢或将进一步下移。 原油：供应过剩压力显现 油价或震荡下行 与贵金属的火热行情不同，华侨银行对能源市场前景持谨慎态度。报告预测，2026年WTI原油和布伦特 原油的平均价格将分别降至59美元／桶和62美元／桶，低于2025年的预测均值。 报告分析称，全球石油市场正面临供应过剩的局面。数据显示，截至2025年10月，市场已连续8个月出 现供过于求。经合组织（OECD）商业原油库存已超过过去五年的季节性平均水平，并预计在2026年7 月底突破31亿桶。 供应端方面，OPEC+从2025年4月开始逐步取消自愿减产措施，加上非OPEC+国家产量的强劲增长，将 导致供应进一步释放。需求端方面，尽管中国需求增长抵消了部分地区的疲软，但全球整体石油需求增 长保持平稳，难以消化新增产能。华侨银行指出，随着地缘政治溢价 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

Market Trends - On December 5, the main contract for alumina futures continued to decline, with the market focus dropping below the 2600 yuan/ton threshold [1] - In the spot market, the average price of domestic alumina was 2810.95 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.71% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core drivers of the current price decline are "supply surplus + cost collapse": domestic alumina production capacity remains at historical highs, with industry inventory and exchange warehouse inventory increasing to 253,000 tons [5] - By the end of November 2025, inventory had risen to nearly 5 million tons, the highest in three years, creating strong price pressure [9] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with current operating capacity close to this limit, leading to no incremental demand for alumina [15] Cost Factors - The price of bauxite, a key raw material for alumina production, has dropped significantly from approximately 115 USD/ton at the beginning of 2025 to 70-72 USD/ton, a nearly 40% decrease, which has lowered production costs [12] - The industry's profit margins are being severely compressed due to the combination of falling prices and declining costs, with current prices dropping below the national weighted average full cost [16] Industry Structure and Production Dynamics - The integrated structure of the industry has weakened the motivation for production cuts, as many large companies own both upstream alumina and downstream electrolytic aluminum capacities [21] - Despite losses, companies prefer to maintain operations due to the complex production process of alumina, which can lead to significant economic losses if production is halted [21] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices due to ongoing supply surplus and high inventory levels, with limited improvement in demand [19] - The potential for production cuts remains low, and the market is likely to see weak price performance in the near term [17][19]