Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on May 8, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 158.6 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 158.6 billion yuan for the day [1]. Market Liquidity - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions have decreased, with the former dropping over 13 basis points and the latter nearly 7 basis points [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.32% [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.67%, showing a significant decline compared to the previous day [7]. Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown a downward trend, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.4150%, down by 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 1.6280%, down by 0.80% [9]. - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.26% [12]. Corporate Bonds - Guotai Haitong plans to issue no more than 2 billion yuan in sci-tech bonds [15]. - Greentown Real Estate Group has spent a total of 2.06 billion yuan purchasing its own bonds over the past six months [15]. - Zhaojin Group successfully issued 1 billion yuan in technology innovation convertible bonds [15].

Group 1: Legal Framework and Impact - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was passed on April 30, 2025, and will take effect on May 20, 2025, marking a significant legal recognition of the private economy's status in China[2] - The law aims to enhance the legal framework supporting private enterprises, promoting high-quality development and a multi-level capital market system[2] - It emphasizes the importance of the bond market as a crucial channel for direct financing, particularly for private enterprises[2] Group 2: Financing Mechanisms and Challenges - In the first four months of 2025, private enterprises issued bonds totaling approximately 102.2 billion yuan, accounting for only 2.1% of the total credit bond issuance, a significant drop of 11.4 percentage points from 2016[6] - The law introduces measures to optimize financing mechanisms for private enterprises, addressing issues of high financing costs and difficulties in accessing funds[4] - The law also mandates timely legal action against overdue payments to small and medium-sized private enterprises, which currently have accounts receivable constituting 11% of their total assets, higher than the average for all listed companies[7] Group 3: Innovation and International Cooperation - The law supports technological innovation and international cooperation, aiming to enhance the vitality of the private economy through various measures, including participation in national technology projects[8] - The bond market has seen the introduction of innovative financing tools for technology enterprises, with the current stock of technology bonds reaching approximately 1.85 trillion yuan[9] Group 4: Risk Management and Credit Rating - The law proposes a market-based mechanism for sharing financing risks, encouraging collaboration between banks and financing guarantee institutions to support private enterprises[9] - It highlights the need for improved credit rating services, with a focus on enhancing the methodologies used by credit rating agencies to better assess the creditworthiness of private enterprises[10]

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 2025 年 5 月 7 日，在国新办举行的"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 期"新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布三大类共十项货币政策措施， 其中总量型政策包括降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，以及下调政策利 率 0.1 个百分点。 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250507 双降之后，债券市场怎么走？ 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250428- 20250502）》 2025-05-05 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250438-20250502）》 2025-05-05 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 降准是货币与财政配合的重要手段：降准为银行提供了无期限的零成本 的资金，降准 50bp 可以为金融市场提供约 1 万亿元的流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, facing a complex internal and external environment, China's central government adheres to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, strengthens counter - cyclical macro - policy regulation, and the bond market plays an important role in counter - cyclical adjustment. The bond market focuses on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy", and strengthens direct financing functions through various measures to support key areas and weak links [4]. - The tariff game between China and the US has intensified, increasing the uncertainty of the global economic situation. The risk - aversion attribute of China's bond market has been enhanced, and it is expected to attract more long - term allocation funds. Meanwhile, the bond market has increased support for key areas such as science and technology innovation and green development, and tried to improve the financing environment of private enterprises, but the effect still needs time to show [3][4]. Summary by Directory External Environment - The continuous escalation of the China - US tariff dispute has a great impact on market sentiment. After the tariffs are implemented, global risk assets are under pressure, and funds flow into safe - haven assets. China's bond market has strengthened significantly. The relative attractiveness of US dollar assets has decreased, which may boost foreign capital's demand for RMB bonds [3]. - In the recent tariff conflict, the US has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which has affected China's import and export and economic fundamentals. The yields of Chinese treasury bonds and credit bonds have generally declined, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is still at a low level [6][7][8]. - Affected by tariff policies and market risk - aversion sentiment, US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar have all declined. The Fed's subsequent interest - rate policy is uncertain. The narrowing of the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds may attract more long - term foreign capital to allocate RMB bonds [9]. Key Areas - In the first quarter, the bond market increased its support for science and technology innovation and green development, releasing policy dividends. The support policies for science and technology finance have been upgraded in terms of specification and frequency, with new measures such as the "science and technology board" of the bond market [3][10][11]. - For green finance, policies have been deepened from multiple aspects. The Ministry of Finance issued a green sovereign bond framework and successfully issued 6 billion RMB of green sovereign bonds overseas, which is conducive to diversifying financing channels and promoting international green finance cooperation [15][16]. - In the first quarter, the issuance of innovative bond varieties was hot. The issuance volume of innovative products exceeded 300 billion yuan, of which science and technology innovation bonds accounted for about 80% and green bonds were nearly 60 billion yuan. There is still room for expansion in the science and technology innovation and green bond markets [17]. Weak Links - In the first quarter, the issue of private enterprise development has attracted more attention. The central government has released clear support signals, and bond market regulators have also taken measures to boost market confidence and optimize financing support [19]. - Multiple departments have held symposiums on private enterprises, emphasizing the need to solve the problems of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises. The bond market has optimized basic mechanisms to increase financing services for private enterprises [20][21]. - Although a series of support measures are conducive to improving the financing environment of private enterprises, due to the time - lag of policy transmission and low market risk preference, the credit bond financing scale of private enterprises in the first quarter was limited, and it still takes time to improve [23]. Basic Systems - In the first quarter, the bond market continued to optimize basic systems. The inter - bank and exchange markets optimized trading and settlement mechanisms, reduced transaction costs, and attracted more medium - and long - term funds [24][25]. - The exchange market standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and revised the review guidelines for corporate bond issuance and listing, which is conducive to strengthening credit risk management and improving the transparency of bond issuance review [26].

机构行为的十大伪规律 报告日期： 2025-05-06 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 专题报告 第四，基金卖出就是"赎回潮"吗？——历史上看未必。由于 2024 年至今是 债券市场的大牛市，但每一次回调都相对快速，利率上行时市场总会产生"赎 回潮"的隐忧，而从数据上看基金也确实是多次行情的主要砸盘力量，但基金 的卖出行为不等于赎回潮，本文提供了两个思路进行辅助证明。 第五，保险都是配置盘吗？——交易盘比重已明显提升。通常我们认为，银行 与保险机构是债券市场中的两大类配置盘，而保险机构的行为又主要以超长 债配置为主，近年来由 30Y 国债逐步转向 30Y 地方债，但研究后我们发现， 2024 年以来保险机构中交易盘的占比已经明显攀升，可通过卖出数据辅以证 明。 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观 ...

证券研究报告 【平安固收】2025年3月机构行 为思考：财政货币政策或将支持 债市供需两旺 平安证券研究所固定收益团队 刘璐投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2025年5月6日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 25年3月债券规模保持较快增长。3月债券托管余额为180.5万亿元，同比增速为14.81%，较2月上升1.06个百分点。3月新增 托管规模为26195亿元，同比多增17869亿元。 分券种：政府债与存单多增，公司信用债同比少增。政府债大幅多增约1万亿，主要是因为财政靠前发力。NCD大幅多增约 1万亿，主要是因为政府债与信贷放量，而银行负债相对不足。公司信用债大幅少增约4300亿元，可能受到监管趋严和高 基数等的影响。 分机构：资管户超配，银行减配。即使加上买断逆之后银行仍大幅少增持债券，主要因为3月银行负债补充不足，而新增 信贷规模较大。调整后，银行同比多增持政府债2828亿元，多减持同业存单4732亿元，或体现了腾出空间配合政府债发行 的态度。保险同比多增持债券，但增配力度弱于历史中性水平，主要多增持地方债，可能是因为地方债较有估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

金十数据4月30日讯，芝加哥DRW公司的市场策略师说，"当你看到最终销售下降2.5%时，这是不包括 库存数据的GDP，你要知道这是一个非常疲弱的数字。这是自新冠时期以来最疲软的，在新冠之前，你 必须回到2009年，才能找到一个实际最终销售额较弱的季度。所以我认为这可能是债券最初上涨的原 因，但重新考虑一下，他们可能会关注通胀指标，GDP平减指数和个人消费支出核心指数，两者都明显 高于预期。因此，这份报告对债券市场产生了一点推动作用。" 策略师：GDP数据信号好坏参杂 引发债市波动 ...

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 ...