韩国总统李在明面临着来自美国的巨大压力，一场关乎韩国经济命脉和国家安全的博弈正酣。美国，为了遏制中国日益壮大的造船业，将韩国推向了风口浪 尖，试图将其绑上反华战车。 舆论攻势，暗示进一步施压将可能导致更多信息的曝光。 李在明在就职演说中明确表示，韩国绝不做大国博弈的牺牲品。他摒弃了前任尹锡悦"亲美一边倒"的政策，主张安全依靠美国，经济依靠中国，推行"实用 外交"。 这场博弈的导火索是特朗普政府提出的"送命题"：要么与美国联手打压中国造船业，要么在8月1日起面临高达25%的惩罚性关税，甚至连停靠美国港口的船 只都将面临最高150万美元的"天价保护费"。 这并非空穴来风，美国贸易代表办公室早在四月就已放话，所有"中国建造、中方所有"的船只都将面临此项收 费。 这一举动引发全球航运业的强烈震动，因为几乎所有国际航运公司都使用过中国制造的船舶。 据统计，全球98%的船只可能面临缴费。 美国如此强硬，源于对中国造船业实力的恐惧。 数据显示，2025年，中国将占据全球新船产量53.1%的份额，而韩国仅为17%。 更令人担忧的是，中国企业 制造了全球80%的干货船，并控制着95%的集装箱运输市场。 美国集装箱港口95%的货 ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：地缘政治和关税对价格的影响非常不确定。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives investment outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. For example, the outlook for crude oil is "oscillating weakly", and for pure benzene is "oscillating strongly" [17][18]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is currently in an oscillating pattern. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and US - Russia relations, and the prices of downstream chemical products are influenced by factors such as cost support, supply - demand relationships, and device maintenance [1][2]. - In the short - term, investors can base on the positive or negative basis to try trading strategies of buying strong and selling weak. For example, during the contract roll - over period from late July to early August, this strategy can be considered [2]. - Different chemical products have different price trends and influencing factors. For instance, ethylene glycol rebounds due to low inventory and device maintenance; asphalt shows strong performance due to limited production and inventory reduction; while high - sulfur fuel oil faces downward pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus in June was $115 billion. In the first half of 2025, China's exports were a key driver of economic growth, but this support may weaken in the second half if global trade tensions rise [8]. - As of July 11, the oil tanker capacity of tankers that had been anchored for at least 7 days decreased by 4.6% compared to July 4. Floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region continued to rise, while that in other regions declined [8]. - The Caspian Pipeline's (CPC) crude oil exports in June increased by 8% compared to May, reaching 6.177 million tons, or 1.63 million barrels per day [8]. - The US President threatened to impose severe economic penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff may be imposed [9]. - China's imports of Iranian crude oil in June reached the highest level since March, increasing to over 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in May [9]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On July 15, crude oil prices fell as the US may not impose sanctions on Russia's oil in the short - term but urged Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The current supply - demand of the crude oil market is gradually loosening, and investors are advised to view oil prices with an oscillating - weakly perspective [7][10]. 3.2.2 LPG - The cost - side support for LPG is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - excess remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The supply of LPG and civil gas is still at a relatively high level in the same historical period, and demand is weak during the off - season [14][16]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is under great downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The current price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread may decline as warehouse receipts increase [11][12]. 3.2.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price faces downward pressure. OPEC + may continue to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation is weakening. The supply of heavy oil is increasing, and the three driving factors supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [12][13]. 3.2.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spread between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil, but it is facing the situation of increasing supply and falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [13][15]. 3.2.6 Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up load is decreasing, and the futures price oscillates. The market's expectation of reduced methanol imports has weakened, and the port inventory has increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the profit of coastal MTO has been repaired to some extent [28][29]. 3.2.7 Urea - The speculative sentiment for urea is slowing down, and the futures price may be under pressure in the short - term. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to temporary device maintenance in high - temperature weather, but overall demand is weak, and the market still faces pressure before inventory reduction [28][29]. 3.2.8 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol continues to oscillate and consolidate. The port inventory is at a low level, and there are device maintenance plans. The restart of Saudi Arabian devices is not going smoothly, which supports the price [22][23]. 3.2.9 PX - Crude oil is strong, and PX rebounds. In the short - term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to remain at a high level, and the overall PX start - up load in Asia is low. The release of new PTA production capacity is imminent, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [17]. 3.2.10 PTA - The cost of PTA is strong, and the price rises. Although the supply of PTA is sufficient next week and downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the decline in PTA prices is expected to be limited [17][18]. 3.2.11 Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fee remains stable, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is small, and the sales volume of short - fiber has increased periodically, indicating that the profitable processing fee can continue [23][24]. 3.2.12 Bottle Chips - The basis of bottle chips drops rapidly, and the supply - demand pattern is dull. The supply of bottle chips will gradually decrease, and the processing fee is expected to find support between 350 - 400 yuan/ton and then move towards 500 - 600 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3.2.13 PP - The short - term driving force for PP is limited, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the impact on PP is limited. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side is still under pressure [32][33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - The maintenance of plastic slightly increases, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has an impact on plastic, but it mainly follows the trend. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side still has pressure [32]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and crude oil is strong, so pure benzene oscillates at a high level. In the short - term, there are positive news from downstream industries, and the macro - sentiment is high. In the medium - term, the situation from July to August is favorable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - The port supply of styrene is concentrated, and it is strong. The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, and although there is no strong support for styrene, there is no obvious drag either. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken, but the inventory in the industry is not high, and the port supply is concentrated [20][21]. 3.2.17 PVC - There is a strong expectation but weak reality for PVC, and it oscillates. Macro - level policies boost market sentiment, but the mid - long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new production capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - The spot rebound of caustic soda slows down, and it oscillates. The support comes from positive market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine prices, and low inventory in the caustic soda industry. The pressure comes from the slowdown of spot price increases and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [36][37]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads for various energy and chemical products. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent crude oil is 1.26, with a change of 0.06; the basis of asphalt is 164, with a change of - 40; the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 322, with a change of - 47 [38][39][40]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products, it does not provide specific data analysis in the given content. It only mentions the names of products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [41][52][64].

Group 1 - The investment advice for p-xylene (PX) is to not chase short positions on a unilateral basis and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. It's recommended to focus on the compression position of the long - term PX - Naphtha (PXN) [9][4][9] - The investment advice for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is to not chase short positions on a unilateral basis and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. For the 01 contract, continue to go long on PX and short on PTA, and long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the processing fee is under downward pressure [10][11] - The investment advice for monoethylene glycol (MEG) is to expect a bullish unilateral shock market, and go for positive spreads on the monthly basis. The supply of MEG is increasing while demand is decreasing, but the inventory is at a low level, combined with the rebound of coal prices, the unilateral price of MEG follows the rebound [12] Group 2 - The investment advice for synthetic rubber is that the upside space has been narrowed. In the short term, synthetic rubber will mainly fluctuate within the range, and the upside space has been narrowed. The static valuation range of the synthetic rubber futures is between 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upside valuation is estimated to be around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2508 contract is at a premium of around 100 yuan/ton to the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage space for spot hedging [17] - The investment advice for asphalt is that the center of gravity fluctuates strongly with oil, and the inventory in the factory has declined. It is recommended to go short on a unilateral basis, with a trend strength of - 1 [20][27] - The investment advice for linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) is that the macro - end is affected by the rectification of involution, with a strong commodity sentiment. However, the fundamentals of polyethylene have not been significantly improved, with insufficient driving force, leading to a volatile market. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand support is not strong, so the later trend pressure on PE is still relatively large [34] - The investment advice for polypropylene (PP) is that the spot price has slightly decreased, and the trading is light. The fundamentals have not been significantly improved, resulting in a volatile market [37][38] - The investment advice for caustic soda is that the recent price rebound is due to the previous weakness of liquid chlorine leading to some device load reduction and downstream periodic restocking. However, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to the recovery of chlorine - consuming downstream and the restoration of caustic soda devices, so the supply - side drive is unsustainable. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is reluctant to restock at a high price, so the rebound is unsustainable [42] - The investment advice for pulp is to continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory and market demand. The spot fundamentals are under high pressure, with high port inventory and continuous supply relaxation; the demand is suppressed by the high inventory of base paper, and the market is wait - and - see [45] - The investment advice for glass is that the original sheet price is stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the speculative demand has increased due to the boost of the futures market, and the inventory is at a low - level [49][49] - The investment advice for methanol is to expect a continued volatile pattern. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July, and the demand from MTO is mainly for rigid procurement. The traditional demand has weakened, so methanol is expected to fluctuate [54] - The investment advice for urea is that the domestic demand is weak, and the export supports a volatile trend. The spot trading has been weak continuously, so it may be under pressure on a unilateral basis [57][58] - The investment advice for styrene is that the spot liquidity has been released, and it is recommended to focus on the position of compressing styrene profit. The supply of styrene is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the non - integrated profit is at a negative level [59][60] - The investment advice for soda ash is that the market has not changed much. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is not strong. It is recommended to expect a low - level volatile market [62] - The investment advice for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is to expect a short - term volatile pattern. The supply of LPG is decreasing due to multiple PDH device overhauls, and the demand from MTO is mainly rigid. The overall supply and demand are both decreasing, so LPG is expected to fluctuate. The upside is suppressed by the negative feedback of low MTO profit, and the downside is supported by low imports in July [66][72] - The investment advice for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is that the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate, and it is recommended to short the chlorine - alkali profit. However, the rectification of involution has weakened the short - selling sentiment [75] - The investment advice for fuel oil is that the night market has continued to weaken, and the short - term is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market has continued to increase [77] - The investment advice for the container shipping index (ECI) is to go short on a unilateral basis for the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 and 02 contracts for protection. The SCFI：European route has7.3% week - rise, and the SCFI：American route has - 18.7% week - rise [79] Group 3 - The investment advice for staple fiber is that the short - term is expected to be a volatile market. The supply of staple fiber is increasing while demand is decreasing, but the inventory is at a low level [32] - The investment advice for bottle chips is that the short - term is expected to be a volatile market. Go long on PR and short on PF. The supply of bottle chips is increasing while demand is decreasing [32] Group 4 - The investment advice for offset printing paper is that the market is in the off - season, and the demand is0. The supply and0. The supply and demand are both0, and0. It is recommended to0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue to watch the changes in port0. The supply and demand are both0, and it is recommended to continue to watch0. 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Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is facing a "rare earth crisis" due to a significant drop in rare earth imports from Myanmar, which has led to supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions [1][9]. Group 1: Supply Chain Vulnerability - In the first nine months of 2024, China imported 31,000 tons of rare earth oxides from Myanmar, accounting for 74.9% of its total imports, highlighting the dependency on Myanmar for critical rare earth elements [3]. - The domestic production of medium and heavy rare earths in China is severely limited, with a quota of only 19,200 tons in 2024, while imports from Myanmar exceed domestic capacity by 1.6 times, fulfilling 56% of China's heavy rare earth demand [3]. - The sudden control of mining areas by the Kachin Independence Army in October 2024 led to a halt in operations, causing a surge in rare earth prices and raising concerns about supply shortages for companies heavily reliant on these imports [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Market Reactions - Following the disruption in supply, the stock prices of northern rare earth companies rose by 11.58% in one week, and the price of dysprosium oxide surged by 8% in the same period [4]. - A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar in April 2025 further exacerbated the situation, with estimated export volumes dropping by 30% to 50%, and dysprosium prices nearing 2 million yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Corporate Responses and Adaptations - Chinese companies are implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis, such as reducing dysprosium usage in magnets by 30% and increasing recycling rates of rare earth materials from waste [6]. - The North Rare Earth Company is ramping up production at its Baiyun Obo mine, benefiting from exclusive mining rights amid rising prices [6]. - Companies are also exploring overseas sourcing options, including projects in the U.S. and Malaysia, although these alternatives cannot fully replace the heavy rare earths sourced from Myanmar [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Environmental Considerations - The crisis has highlighted the complex interplay between technology competition, geopolitical dynamics, and environmental responsibilities, with the U.S. attempting to leverage environmental reports to pressure Myanmar into halting exports to China [9]. - China's investment of 38 billion yuan in rare earth pollution control has become a strategic tool, promoting sustainable mining practices in Myanmar and potentially reshaping the operational landscape to align with Chinese standards [8].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation has undergone a significant shift, indicating a more aggressive approach towards military support for Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia [1][2][20]. Group 1: Economic Measures - Trump announced a 100% tariff on Russia, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the country [5][20]. - Following this announcement, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude futures dropping by 1.6%, reaching a low of $67.27 per barrel [6][20]. Group 2: Military Support for Ukraine - Trump stated that the U.S. would provide advanced weaponry to NATO, with costs to be borne by NATO allies rather than U.S. taxpayers [7][12]. - A new military aid plan for Ukraine is expected to include offensive weapons, marking a departure from Trump's previous position of only supplying defensive arms [2][7]. - Trump confirmed the potential delivery of Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for such defense capabilities against Russian aggression [8][10]. Group 3: NATO and International Relations - The U.S. will coordinate with NATO to support Ukraine, with Trump indicating that NATO may choose to supply weapons to other countries as well [7][12]. - The ongoing conflict has prompted discussions about enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities and joint procurement of military equipment with European partners [16][20]. Group 4: Ongoing Conflict and Responses - The conflict continues with Russia launching extensive airstrikes against Ukraine, utilizing over 1,800 drones and 1,200 guided bombs in a week [18][20]. - Analysts predict that new sanctions from the U.S. could have profound impacts on energy markets, international trade relations, and geopolitical dynamics [17][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]

美元指数企稳反弹，利率预期仍存不确定性 BCR每周金融市场回顾：美元企稳反弹，资产价格波动加剧 2025年7月第一周，全球金融市场围绕美联储政策预期、特朗普政府贸易政策、地缘政治动态等多个核 心变量展开博弈。美元指数整体震荡上行，避险与通胀预期并存推动贵金属维持强势，而原油和股市则 呈现分化走势。BCR为您梳理本周关键市场动向与趋势分析。 受特朗普加征关税威胁影响，加之市场对美联储降息路径存在分歧，美元指数本周震荡上扬，一度逼近 98关口，最终收于97.83，录得三周来首次周线级上涨，涨幅0.9%。当前，投资者密切关注美联储7月会 议纪要释放的信号，尽管部分委员支持降息，但整体态度仍显谨慎，政策前景存在较大不确定性。 澳元兑美元持续反弹，得益于澳洲联储意外维持利率不变，市场对未来政策转向的押注升温。英镑则录 得六连跌，反映出英国经济增长与通胀前景的双重压力。欧元则因欧洲央行官员偏鸽言论而承压。美元 兑日元则在周初上行后转入震荡，本周累计上涨近2%。 尽管特朗普再度挥舞关税"大棒"，全球风险偏好维持回暖态势。以英伟达为代表的科技巨头市值持续走 高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元带动纳指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.