Core Insights - The Trump administration plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which has led to a slight increase in international oil prices, highlighting the profound impact of soft and hard power dynamics on the energy market [1][4][5] - The current global oil market is undergoing a restructuring of rules, with a dynamic balance between soft and hard power being crucial for understanding the evolution of energy dynamics [3][4] Group 1: Strategic Considerations - The procurement decision is strategically timed to take advantage of low oil prices, as current international oil prices are near a five-month low, making it an ideal moment to replenish reserves [4] - The SPR, as the world's largest emergency oil supply, aims to mitigate the impact of oil supply disruptions, with the U.S. having previously released 180 million barrels from the SPR to stabilize the market following the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - The procurement also reflects a political and economic balance, fulfilling energy policy commitments while potentially alleviating domestic inflation pressures through oil price influence [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, primarily due to OPEC's continued production recovery and enhanced supply prospects from non-OPEC countries [2][4] - Russian seaborne crude oil exports have surged to a 29-month high, reaching an average of 3.82 million barrels per day, indicating a shift towards Asian markets and challenging traditional energy rules [2][4] - The dynamics of U.S. energy governance are being reshaped through SPR operations and shale oil policies, positioning the U.S. in a three-way power struggle with Russia and OPEC [4] Group 3: Future Price Influences - Future oil prices will be influenced by soft power variables such as geopolitical expectations, including U.S.-Russia relations and OPEC policy adjustments, which significantly affect market sentiment [5] - The competition in technological standards, particularly in shale oil and carbon capture technologies, will increasingly highlight the soft power value of innovation capabilities [5] - The management of alliances, particularly between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia and OPEC, will determine the future authority over market rule-making [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-22 贵⾦属短线⼤跌，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调 整期 周⼆国内休市后，海外⻩⾦、⽩银⼤幅下跌，伦敦⾦现⽇内跌幅最⾼超 3%，伦敦银现⽇内跌幅最⾼超6%。 我们此前提⽰，贵⾦属波动率显著上 升，上涨⾏情或进⼊尾部阶段，过热⻛险下调整随时可能发⽣，可参考M A5进⾏阶段性⽌盈，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调整期，后续重点关注美联储货币 政策、⼈事变动、地缘及贸易变动。 重点资讯： 1）在日本众议院首相指名选举第一轮投票中，自民党总裁高市早苗 获得过半票数，当选日本第104任首相，成为日本历史上第一位女首 相。她现年64岁，是日本右翼政客代表人物之一，主张实施扩张性财 政政策，并提高防卫开支。新当选的日本首相高市早苗内阁名单公 布，包括内阁官房长官木原稔、财务大臣片山皋月、防卫大臣小泉进 次郎、总务大臣林芳正、外务大臣茂木敏充等人。 2）欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩称，欧洲央行决心确保通胀率在中期 内稳定在2%的目标水平，银行的美元融资更容易出现流动性危机，从 而在压力情境下增加脆弱性。 价格逻辑： 周二国内休市后，海外黄金、白银大幅下跌，伦敦 ...

黄金价格在近期冲高后正处于高位震荡阶段。10月17日，黄金价格盘中一度突破4390美元/盎司的历史 峰值。就在市场正在等待黄金突破4400美元关口，10月21日黄金价格却出现下调。10月21日下午现货黄 金已失守4300美元关口，晚间黄金价格再度快速下探。 "金价涨得快，势必调整会更加剧烈。"汇管信息研究院副院长赵庆明在接受贝壳财经记者采访时表示， 从今年8月底至今的2个月时间内，黄金价格已经上涨了约1000美元。 在赵庆明看来，这轮金价上涨主要是全球看多情绪驱动。地缘政治、全球央行购金、全球流动性过剩是 推动黄金上涨的三大因素。但目前来看，这三大因素均未有明显变化，且近期地缘政治的紧张局势出现 缓解迹象。 新京报贝壳财经记者姜樊 10月21日晚间，现货黄金持续下跌，黄金跌破4200美元/盎司，跌幅高达到3.8%。 "投资者也要立足长期逻辑，当前支撑金价长期上行的核心因素(如全球不确定性、实际利率下行趋势 等)未发生根本改变，建议把握市场节奏，采取逢低布局策略，待金价回调至合理区间时择机逐步建 仓。"瞿瑞还建议，投资者也要明确投资目标，以资产保值、对冲风险为核心，而非单纯追逐短期价差 收益，规避盲目追高导致的 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on US-China trade issues, emphasizing that trade wars do not benefit either side and advocating for negotiations based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1] - Recent comments from US President Trump threaten to impose export controls on aircraft parts, which could impact Boeing, a major player in the aerospace industry [1] - Currently, China operates approximately 1,855 Boeing aircraft and has at least 222 additional orders, with a significant portion being the popular 737 narrow-body jets [1] Group 2 - Trump's threats could undermine Boeing's reputation as a leading high-end manufacturer, turning it into a geopolitical tool and potentially damaging its global customer base [2] - The long-term implications of these actions may lead to skepticism from other countries regarding Boeing's reliability, especially among nations with complex relationships with the US [2]

Core Insights - Argentina's government announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs on major agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, from September 22 to October 31, effectively eliminating approximately 26% of export taxes, creating a significant opportunity for global buyers, particularly Chinese companies [1] - The immediate impact of this policy was a reduction in soybean prices, making them nearly 200 RMB per ton cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, coinciding with China's need to replenish its inventory before the U.S. harvest season [1] - Chinese enterprises quickly responded by securing orders for 10 ships, with rumors suggesting this could increase to 15 ships, totaling over 2 million tons, benefiting both Argentina's economy and its farmers [1] Export Policy Changes - The export policy was abruptly ended when Argentina reached a pre-set export declaration limit of $70 billion, leaving many soybean shipments unshipped [3] - This sudden policy shift was influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly following a meeting between Argentine President Javier Milei and former U.S. President Donald Trump, leading to a U.S. announcement of a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina [3] U.S. Conditions and Market Reactions - The $20 billion agreement came with stringent conditions that were unfavorable to China, including the cancellation of Argentina's currency swap agreement with China and the restoration of export tariffs on agricultural products [5] - The announcement led to a swift decline in the Argentine stock market, erasing previous gains from the tax exemption policy [5] Importance of China to Argentina - The currency swap agreement with China is crucial for Argentina's economy, allowing it to purchase goods in RMB and alleviating dollar shortages [7] - China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner, especially in agricultural exports, with significant adjustments made to meet Chinese market standards [7] - Chinese investments in Argentina are long-term and span various sectors, providing employment opportunities and enhancing national competitiveness [7] Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. aid is seen as an attempt to reshape geopolitical dynamics in Latin America, pressuring Argentina to sever ties with China [9] - Argentina's Cabinet Chief emphasized the country's commitment to an independent foreign policy, rejecting the notion of abandoning cooperation with China [9] - The situation highlights the strategic competition between the U.S. and China in Latin America, particularly concerning resources like lithium, which are vital for future energy needs [11] Argentina's Dilemma - Argentina faces a challenging decision between seeking U.S. political support and maintaining its economic partnership with China [12] - The complexities of this geopolitical landscape underscore the importance of supply chain diversification and security in international trade [12] - Argentina's experience serves as a cautionary tale for resource-rich countries about the risks of using commodities as political tools [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant increase in gold prices, reaching over $3,700 per ounce, prompting discussions about the implications for savings and investment strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates has resulted in lower deposit interest rates at banks, with some rates dropping from around 4% to just above 3% [3][5]. - The reduction in interest rates decreases the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment option as it does not generate interest [5][6]. - A weaker dollar, resulting from the rate cut, increases the price of gold, which is priced in dollars, leading to higher demand for gold as a safe haven asset amid economic uncertainty [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Experts suggest that the gold price may continue to rise due to the ongoing low interest rate environment, with predictions of a prolonged period of increasing gold prices [3][6]. - There is a cautionary note regarding the stock market, as the anticipated benefits from the rate cut may already be priced in, potentially leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [8]. - The relationship between the dollar, oil prices, and gold is highlighted, indicating that both the dollar's strength and oil prices are crucial factors influencing gold's market dynamics [10][11]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the actions of global central banks, such as China's continued accumulation of gold, suggest a growing concern over the stability of the dollar and its credit system [13][15]. - The potential for rising oil prices could alter the current dynamics, impacting the strength of the dollar and subsequently the price of gold [11][15]. - The overall uncertainty in the market prompts individuals to reconsider their investment strategies, weighing the safety of cash savings against the potential benefits of diversifying into gold or other assets [15].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - Investment ratings for various metals: Gold (★★★, buy and hold), Silver (★★, hold long - term), Copper (★★, hold long - term), Zinc (★, sell on rebound), Lead (★, rebound), Tin (★, rebound), Aluminum (★, rebound), Nickel (★, stabilize), Industrial Silicon (★, range - bound), Polysilicon (★, bullish), Lithium Carbonate (★, cautiously bullish) [2] - Core views: Gold is supported by geopolitical factors and long - term positive factors; silver has short - term volatility but long - term bullish logic; copper has a supply contraction expectation in Q4 and long - term bullishness; zinc has increasing supply and decreasing demand; lead and tin have short - term rebound trends; aluminum has a short - term rebound under certain conditions; nickel is stabilizing at a low level; industrial silicon is range - bound; polysilicon is bullish; lithium carbonate is in a tight supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 atmosphere may ease, but issues like the US government shutdown, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Middle East problems are recurring, providing support for gold and silver prices [3] Fundamental Logic - Trump administration is relaxing tariffs, the US government shutdown may continue, there are changes in Japan's political situation, and gold benefits from long - term factors such as global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4] Strategy Recommendation - Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with clear support at 960 in the domestic market. For silver, pay attention to sentiment rhythm, and short - term investors should exit and wait, while long - term positions can be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, standing firm at the 85,000 support [7] Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper production in Q4 may contract, downstream demand is affected, and social inventory accumulates slightly [7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing copper long positions with trailing stop - loss, new long positions should wait for callbacks. Pay attention to support at 82,500 - 83,000 and resistance at 86,500 - 87,000. Long - term, copper is bullish [8] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc stops falling and rebounds, testing the 22,000 resistance [10] Industrial Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 - 2026, domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, demand is under pressure, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas persists [10] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term zinc short positions can take profits, wait for rebounds to re - enter. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation in the sector [11] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] Industrial Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, and alumina is in an oversupply situation in the short term [14] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term, buy aluminum on dips, pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, with the main operating range of [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel price stabilizes slightly, and stainless steel rebounds slightly [17] Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances weaken, nickel inventory accumulates, and stainless steel inventory also increases with weak terminal demand [18] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, with the main operating range of nickel at [120,000 - 122,000] [19] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens high and moves low, oscillating horizontally throughout the day [21] Industrial Logic - Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, demand is strong, and the main capital's position transfer may drive the price up [22] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions in the 2601 contract with the range of [75,700 - 77,000] [23]

Group 1 - The Netherlands has restricted intelligence cooperation with the United States due to concerns over potential political interference by the Trump administration, particularly regarding human rights and support for Russia [1][4]. - Dutch intelligence officials expressed regret over the dismissal of Timothy Haugh, the former NSA director, indicating that such political actions impact intelligence sharing [3][4]. - The restrictions on intelligence sharing specifically involve information related to Russia, reflecting the changing stance of the Trump administration towards Russian President Vladimir Putin [4]. Group 2 - Recent developments indicate that Chinese semiconductor company Wingtech Technology has faced significant regulatory challenges, with its Dutch subsidiary Nexperia's assets and intellectual property frozen for one year due to Dutch government directives [5]. - The Dutch government's intervention in Nexperia is perceived as a response to U.S. pressure to curb China's technological rise, highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding technology and trade [5][6]. - The Chinese government has criticized the Netherlands for its actions, arguing that they violate market principles and harm the business environment, while calling for a correction of these measures to protect Chinese investors' rights [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].