Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for further space in both areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is likely to remain the same as this year, but total fiscal spending may slightly increase due to economic growth, maintaining a certain level of fiscal intensity [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with options for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, as well as the continued use of structural monetary policy tools [6][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The primary task for economic work in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with consumption and investment as the dual engines, addressing current issues of weak internal momentum and insufficient interaction between consumption and investment [9][10] - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and improve the interaction between domestic and international cycles, preparing for long-term and complex international economic challenges [9][10] - Measures to boost investment include increasing central budget investment, optimizing the use of local government special bonds, and enhancing the role of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [11] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown resilience against external pressures, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in 2026, although caution is advised against unilateral bets on the RMB's performance due to mixed influencing factors [13][14] - The central economic work conference reiterated the goal of maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability, balancing against excessive depreciation or appreciation [15][16] Group 4: Gold Price Trends - The outlook for gold prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by the logic of "gold re-monetization" and "global asset rebalancing," with a shift in demand from central banks to private investors [17][18] - The current gold price rally is driven by both central bank purchases and increasing private investment demand, indicating a potential for further price increases [18]

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭， 震荡偏强信号，短线关注 30 均线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量 较昨日减 7280 手；日内最高 1090，最低 1046，收盘 1087，（较昨日结算价） 涨 34 元/吨，涨幅 3.23%。 2，现货市场：河北市场出货尚可，企业多存优惠，下游采购仍偏理性，交 投一般；华东市场窄幅整理，近日浙江两条产线放水，对当地价格有支撑，下游 多数散单为主，维持刚需采购；西北市场变化不大，现货成交氛围偏弱；西南市 场多数持稳，个别上调。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1000，基差-87 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨，比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨，环比-0.17%，同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%，环比-0.1%；平均产能利用率 77.42%，环比-0.14%。上周广东一 条产线冷修，昨日一条玻璃产线（长兴 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro narrative is positive, the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand exceeds expectations, the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase, port inventories are expected to accumulate, the short - term trading focus shifts to the real end, price upside is limited, but restocking demand may support prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short term [4] - The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 RMB/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 USD/ton [4] - The strategy is to conduct range - based operations and use covered call options [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - Weekly shipments of foreign iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and stable Brazilian shipments. According to seasonal patterns and this year's shipping targets of major mines, there will be a phased rush to meet the targets at the end of the year, and weekly shipments will increase month - on - month. The short - term arrival volume remains at a moderately high level and is higher than the same period last year, so the supply - side support is weak [4] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The steel mill profitability rate has rebounded after the decline in carbon element prices. There are both blast furnace overhauls and restarts this period. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to be continuously released [4] Inventory - The imported inventory at steel mills has increased month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar - denominated goods at steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventories have been continuously accumulating, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventories will continue to accumulate in December [4]

Group 1 - The "Investment Education Navigation" online course is guided by the Shaanxi Securities Regulatory Bureau and organized by the Shaanxi Investor Education Navigators Alliance, with participation from 21 member units [1] - The upcoming course, the 17th session of the third season, will focus on recent macro policy dynamics and economic situation analysis, presented by Yuan Ye, Chief Macro Analyst at China Post Securities Research Department [1] - The Shaanxi Investor Education Navigators Alliance aims to enhance the quality of investor education and service effectiveness through collaboration among its members, promoting the healthy and stable development of the capital market [1] Group 2 - The regulatory environment is evolving, with a focus on long-term geopolitical strategies and caution against protectionist policies [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to conclude successfully, paving the way for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and new initiatives [2] - Macro policies are becoming more proactive, with a new goal of maintaining financial stability [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量减仓 3632 手，成交量相比上一 交易日略微缩量，成交量 1051146 手。日内震荡运行，最低 3116，最高 3150， 收于 3130 元/吨，上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅 0.71%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3300 元/吨，相 比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 170 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 库存端：库存连续去化，截止 12 月 25 日当周，总库存周环比下降 18.29 万吨至 434.25 万吨，连续 8 周去化，但同比仍高 34.51 万吨，其中社 会库存294.19万吨，周环比下降18.81万吨，去库有所放缓，钢厂库存140.06 万吨，微增 0.52 万吨，社库去库显示当下需求韧性。但本周库存去化速度 放缓，整体库存压力仍可控。 ■宏观面：中央经济会议 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Adjustments - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has shifted its focus from "nine tasks" in 2024 to "eight tasks," emphasizing the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver of economic growth[9] - The task of expanding domestic demand has been elevated to the top priority, with a focus on "building a strong domestic market" and implementing specific actions to boost consumption and income[10] - The urgency of risk prevention has decreased, with the task of "preventing and resolving key area risks" moving from fifth to eighth place, indicating progress in areas like debt replacement and real estate[9] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Strategies - The conference emphasizes the integration of investment in both physical assets and human capital, with a focus on enhancing income for all urban and rural residents through specific plans[10] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for expanding domestic demand, with the service sector showing higher multiplier effects and lower risks compared to traditional goods consumption[25] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies[38] Group 3: Financial and Monetary Policies - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure, focusing on optimizing the expenditure structure for greater policy effectiveness[15] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while ensuring liquidity remains ample[21] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 33.4 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[27] Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook and Risks - The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with structural reforms expected to deepen, focusing on quality improvement and effective growth[60] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and effectiveness, external economic pressures, and market and credit risks that could impact domestic asset prices[61]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the black metal market is mixed, with different trends and characteristics in each sub - sector. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors, and the strategies for different varieties vary [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The price of steel is in a state of stable fluctuation, and the driving force is not clear. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. After January, iron - water production may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some appropriate replenishment behavior in the industry. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spread can still be rolled [2][4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese (Double Silicon) - The double - silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The demand has weakened significantly, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is still high, and the pressure of over - supply in the medium term remains. Although the cost support of silicomanganese is strengthening, the price may fall under pressure in the future. Industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices, and investment customers can mainly engage in reverse spreads [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market of coke has an increasing expectation of the fourth round of price cuts, and the coking coal auction has mixed results with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in an oscillatory state. The steel is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. After the basis repair of the futures market, it is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot goods [4] Iron Ore - The iron - water production shows signs of stabilizing. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has an obvious upward pressure. Considering the steel mill's maintenance plan and seasonal factors, the iron - water production is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rise in January. The steel mills will replenish the inventory before resuming production, so the price fluctuation range is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Data Summary on December 26 Futures Contracts - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2610 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.25%); HC2610 at 3296 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.18%); I2609 at 761 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.66%); J2609 at 1796.5 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (- 0.91%); JM2609 at 1195.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.75%) [1] - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2605 closed at 3118 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.42%); HC2605 at 3283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); I2605 at 783 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan (0.71%); J2605 at 1720 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan (- 1.12%); JM2605 at 1115.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan (- 1.02%) [1] Spread and Ratio - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2605 - 2610 was - 49 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; I2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was - 76.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 80 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [1] - **Spread/Ratio/Profit**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 165 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.98, down 0.03; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the rebar futures profit was - 91.7 yuan/ton, down 6.93 yuan; the coking futures profit was 236.39 yuan/ton, down 7.7 yuan [1] Spot Prices - **Steel Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 107.85, up 0.55 [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Other**: The price of super - special fines at Qingdao Port was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Basis - HC main contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; RB main contract basis was 162 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; I main contract basis was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 93.6 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; JM main contract basis was 84.5 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent domestic spot copper prices have risen, driven by optimistic market expectations following Trump's statement that the next Federal Reserve chairman must be a "super dove" and expectations of loose domestic liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic liquidity expectation is easing, with policy encouraging major copper smelting enterprises to merge and restructure, enhancing industry competitiveness and boosting market sentiment [1] - The signing of the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee (TC) at $0 per ton highlights a tight supply situation at the mining end [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Continuous siphoning of global electrolytic copper by the U.S. has intensified supply concerns in non-U.S. regions, further driving up copper prices [1] - Short-term support logic remains unchanged, with expectations for spot copper prices to remain stable to slightly strong [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > hot - rolled coil > coke > iron ore > rebar. The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices, but the black sector was relatively weak [4]. - For steel products, the static valuation is neutral, and it is expected to run in a range with short - term trading recommended. For coal and coke, although the absolute inventory in the industry chain is not high, the market expectation is weak. For iron ore, there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment by steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices. The non - ferrous sector led, and many varieties in the energy and chemical sector rose by about 5%. The black sector was relatively weak [4][8] 03 Spot Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented [10] 04 Profit and Valuation - The rebar futures price has risen above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation. Steel mill profitability has stabilized [12][13] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production and demand were both weak, but inventory depletion was smooth, and short - term supply - demand contradictions were not significant. China implements export license management for steel, and there is an expectation of weakening steel exports [5][14] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, both port and steel mill iron ore inventories increased significantly. Iron ore shipments slightly declined from the high level, but arrivals are expected to remain high. Iron water production has stopped falling, and there is an expectation of steel mill resumption in January [5][23] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production declined, but Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and coking coal inventory increased significantly. The market expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage replenishment rhythm [5][28] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and coking plant profits are currently low. Last week, coke production remained stable month - on - month, but inventory increased again [5][30] 09 Variety Price Differences - The steel mill's on - paper profit fluctuated at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference widened [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The State Council executive meeting made arrangements for implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference. The DCE adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin. Other information includes international interest rate adjustments, economic data, and industry - related policies [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (government bonds) sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The short - term trend of government bond futures may be volatile. The stock market and government bond futures both rose on Friday. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Market Performance - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, climbed in the morning, then fell rapidly, rebounded in the afternoon and fell slightly, closing up 0.34% with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.94 trillion yuan [1][2] Important News - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 56.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 36.8 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, up from 1.48% of the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year government bond yield rose 0.20 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year fell 0.80 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.10 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.19 BP to 2.22% [1] - Industrial enterprise data: From January to November, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The total profit was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, indicating greater operating pressure on industrial enterprises [1] - Fiscal policy: The National Fiscal Work Conference from December 27th to 28th stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool combination, etc. A special consumption - boosting action will be carried out, and funds will be allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Central bank report: The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", proposing to implement a more proactive macro - policy and prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment [1][2] Market Logic - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. In December, industrial product prices continued to hover at low levels, while agricultural product wholesale prices rose, helping the December CPI to remain at a relatively high level within the year. New home sales in December continued to decline significantly year - on - year. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy according to the situation [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investment should conduct band operations [2]