虽然中美谈判从短期缓和转变为长期拉锯，不过截至上周五，全球主要股市都已经修复了4月以来的最 大跌幅，而且以港股市场涨幅居前。 但是港股通的流量从4月中旬起就开始反复，说明南向现在很谨慎、更倾向防守。毕竟AH溢价指数已跌 到了低位，而港股头部互联网企业的估值及股价都已经回到年内高点，后面又是业绩真空期，所以吸引 力明显下降。 50%配置防御端：比如股息率高达8.2%的$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$，月月分红机制，一年最高 12次分红，这两天正在冲击上市以来的历史新高。 50%配置进攻"矛"：比如$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$，年内收益高达27%，标的指数是港股科技，今 年一路跑赢恒生科技，对港股创新药、新能源车、AI产业链均有布局，是市场内唯一一个覆盖"中国科 技十雄"的指数。 这种情况下，我发现用"防守反击"的思路来配置港股，可能会有更好的体验。说白了，就是一手进攻 +一手防御的哑铃策略，在遵循政策定力的同时又能冲击产业突围，由《黑天鹅》纳西姆·塔勒布提出， 灵感源于健身房的哑铃——两端重、中间轻。 这一策略的精华在于：通过配置两种极端属性的资产，规避黑天鹅的不确定性，实现风险对冲与收 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the expanding U.S. government debt and deficit have led traders to bet on a surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, exacerbated by President Trump's tax cuts [1] - The latest downward bets align with Wall Street sentiment, as strategists from major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have raised their yield forecasts [1] - Traders have placed significant bets that the 10-year Treasury yield will test 5%, with a notable $11 million premium at risk [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, marking its highest level since November 2023, following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [3] - The hedge premium for greater losses on the long end of the Treasury yield curve has reached its highest level since April, indicating increased market volatility [3] - JPMorgan's client survey highlighted rising expectations for Treasury yield increases, with direct short positions climbing to their highest level since February 10 [3][4] Group 3 - The most active SOFR options indicate a strong demand for put options at the 95.75 strike price, particularly for those expiring in September 2025 [7][9] - The trading flow includes significant positions in put options, reflecting a market focus on hedging against rising interest rates [9][11] Group 4 - Recent CFTC data shows asset managers have significantly closed long positions, while hedge funds have covered short positions, indicating a trend towards deleveraging [13] - The net long duration closed by asset managers is equivalent to approximately 217,000 10-year Treasury futures contracts, the largest since November of the previous year [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current bank gold bar prices are closely linked to the global macro environment, with prices around 770 RMB per gram as of May 20, 2025, reflecting both financial and commodity attributes of physical gold [7]. Group 1: Bank Gold Bar Prices - The price of gold bars varies among banks, with the Agricultural Bank of China offering the highest price at 770.90 RMB per gram, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offers the lowest at 763.2 RMB per gram [4][5]. - Investment gold bar prices are typically based on the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 gold price, with an additional handling fee of 10 to 20 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The London gold price is at 2120 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold AU9999 main contract is priced at 478.5 RMB per gram, indicating a premium for craftsmanship gold bars of about 4.5% [7]. - The strong performance of the RMB has not led to a decrease in domestic gold bar prices, highlighting a contradiction where geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase demand for safe-haven assets [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should consider three key factors: currency hedging to mitigate single currency risk, the current low volatility of gold, and the cultural attributes of craftsmanship gold bars as a new choice for wealth inheritance [9]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation is increasing among domestic residents, with a reported 22% increase in transaction volume for the Industrial and Commercial Bank's gold bars [7].

期货热点追踪 外汇对冲比例飙升，美元被高估10%！"做空美国"时机已到？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold market is leading to significant financial losses for investors, highlighting the complexities and risks involved in trading strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market is currently influenced by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate management, collective repositioning by Wall Street institutions, and algorithmic trading [4]. - A significant drop in gold prices has been observed, with an 11% decline since reaching 3500 points, despite a 2% rebound following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [4]. - The non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold reached a historical peak of 382,000 contracts in April, indicating that a 1% price fluctuation could trigger billions in liquidations [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors are facing challenges, with 83% of recent losses attributed to frequent trading, which benefits analysts through transaction fees [5]. - A case study of an investor following two prominent analysts revealed a 30% gain last year with one and a 40% loss this year with the other, illustrating the unpredictable nature of market outcomes [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that a dualistic mindset of "either bullish or bearish" is a trap, advocating for a cross-hedging strategy that combines long positions in gold stocks with put options to mitigate risks [6]. - Institutions employing hedging strategies have outperformed single-direction traders by 17 percentage points this year [6]. - The focus should be on risk management rather than choosing sides in the market debate, emphasizing the importance of personal stop-loss strategies and independent thinking [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese bond market is currently experiencing a favorable period due to multiple policy benefits and macroeconomic conditions [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has maintained a loose monetary policy since May 2025, implementing measures such as a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis points interest rate cut, exceeding market expectations [3] - The issuance of special bonds by the Ministry of Finance is accelerating, requiring central bank liquidity support, which reinforces a stable yet slightly loose funding environment [3] Group 2 - Domestic inflation remains low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at -0.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating weak domestic demand [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped to a historical low of 1.62%, while ultra-long bonds (like 30-year bonds) still have room for yield spread recovery due to liquidity premiums [4][6] - The international market shows rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has eased capital outflow pressure and attracted foreign investment into Chinese bonds [6] Group 3 - Long-term investors, such as banks and insurance institutions, are increasingly allocating funds to ultra-long bonds, matching their long-duration liabilities with the 30-year government bonds [7] - The investment structure for ultra-long bonds is expected to diversify further with the expansion of the third pillar of pensions and the easing of foreign capital access [7] - Key signals to monitor include whether domestic CPI and PMI data exceed expectations and any substantial adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [7]

Core Viewpoint - The FMX Futures Exchange is set to launch U.S. Treasury futures trading on September 23, 2024, aiming to capture market opportunities arising from Federal Reserve interest rate policy changes, challenging the dominance of CME in the U.S. Treasury futures market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Structure and Participants - The U.S. Treasury futures market is characterized by a highly concentrated structure, with CME holding a dominant position. Current open interest for various maturities includes 4.056 million contracts for 2-year, 6.806 million for 5-year, and 4.917 million for 10-year futures [1]. - Market participants are primarily institutional investors, with a diverse structure including proprietary traders, asset managers, leveraged funds, other financial institutions, and individual investors. Asset managers and leveraged funds account for 60%-70% of the market [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of FMX Futures Exchange - The introduction of FMX Futures Exchange is expected to inject new dynamics into the U.S. Treasury futures market, potentially breaking the monopoly of CME and lowering trading costs, benefiting U.S. financial institutions [3][4]. - FMX's collaboration with LCH for cross-margining and enhanced clearing efficiency may attract institutional investors to a more cost-effective platform, thereby reducing market trading costs [4]. - Initial challenges for FMX may include liquidity issues due to CME's established trading network, necessitating attractive trading conditions for high-frequency traders to gradually capture market share [3][4].

市场波动加剧 VIX 普涨，尾部风险预期理性回落 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股 ...

Core Insights - Hedge funds have increased their long positions in the Japanese yen to the highest level since September 2019, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the currency [1] Group 1 - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that hedge funds have raised their long positions in the yen [1] - This increase in positions reflects a significant shift in market sentiment towards the Japanese yen [1] - The current levels of long positions suggest potential confidence in the yen's performance against other currencies [1]

今天中午睡醒打开手机一看，就发现之前合作的互联网保险平台的小伙伴给我留言，说有个我的读者查 出来癌症了，获赔90万。他之前买的大病险，每年交7000，大概交了5年，可以多次出险的那种，现在 因为查出了大病，之后的保费不用交了，但是这个产品还能继续发挥作用。 我看到消息后第一反应回了个苦笑的表情，问这算是报喜还是报忧 有内容嗅觉的人一定要试试内容创业，擅长写的去起点、公众号、知乎，擅长演的拍抖音、视频号、b 站，没有方向就先从自己专业擅长的领域开始，没有专业擅长就从模仿自己喜欢的博主开始，坚持输 出，多角度尝试，注意后台数据分析，有惊喜反馈就顺着那个方向加大输出。 对方回我得病是人生里的坎坷，是命运安排的一部分，但是买保险是人为的财务风险对冲，这两件不是 因果，也不矛盾。 也是嗷，不买保险也会生病，区别是现在多了一笔钱可以去积极的治疗。希望这位读者能好起来，现代 医疗水平提高，治癌的方案多，很多患者都能生存很久的。 还有很多读者留言问过我买了哪些保险，老婆那边我没问不清楚，老实我自己啥也没买。 我们家的情 况是只要我健在，财务风险都可以抵御，我要是噶了，找保险公司赔个三四百也不能改变什么，别大手 大脚的日子也能 ...