Overall Inventory Cycle - In March 2025, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.47% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.54%[1] - Sales in March 2025 rose by 4.05% year-on-year, up from 3.21% previously[1] - The U.S. was expected to enter an active destocking phase by late 2024, but tariff expectations led to a surge in imports, particularly in industrial and consumer goods, exceeding seasonal norms and potentially overextending future demand[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - As of March 2025, 10 out of 14 major industries were in a passive restocking phase, including chemicals, building materials, and metals[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory growth in March was 40.8%, with chemicals at 87.1%, building materials at 68.9%, and automotive parts at 55.1%, indicating high inventory levels relative to historical data[19] - The oil and gas sector has been in an active destocking phase since March 2025, while other sectors remain in passive restocking[20] - The transportation sector is currently in an active destocking phase, while machinery manufacturing is in a passive destocking phase[21] - Consumer goods, including durable goods and textiles, are also in a passive restocking phase as of March 2025[22]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 21,170.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[3] - The profit growth rate accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first three months of 2025[3] - In April 2025, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March 2025[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies have significantly contributed to the recovery of industrial profits, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors[4] - Specialized equipment and general equipment industries saw profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 9.0%, surpassing the average industrial growth rate by 7.6 percentage points[6] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating persistent low prices that hinder profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% in the first four months of 2025, showing a slight recovery but still with significant room for improvement[5] - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[8] Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The U.S. tariff war is expected to have a controllable impact on overall industrial profits, with an estimated profit loss of CNY 200 billion, accounting for 2.7% of total industrial profits in 2024[8] - Industries with high export exposure to the U.S., such as textiles and footwear, are facing significant pressure, with some experiencing negative growth[8]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in the previous period[2] - Cumulative operating revenue for the same period rose by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.4% previously[2] - In April, the monthly revenue growth rate was approximately 2.6%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: Profit Analysis - April's total profit increased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year, continuing the improvement trend observed since the beginning of the year[3] - Private enterprises saw a profit increase of 4.3%, improving by 4.6 percentage points, while state-owned enterprises experienced a profit decline of 4.4%, worsening by 3.0 percentage points[3] - The contribution to April's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin was +6.0, -2.8, and -0.1 percentage points, respectively[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - In April, the profit share of upstream mining, midstream equipment, downstream consumption, and public utilities was 29.4%, 38.8%, 21%, and 10.8%, respectively[4] - Upstream profit growth declined by 2.2 percentage points to -9.6%, primarily due to reduced profits in non-ferrous metals and the petrochemical sector[4] - Midstream sectors benefited from policy support, with profit growth improving by 8.4% in computer and communication electronics, and 7.9% in electrical machinery[4] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Nominal inventory decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, while actual inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.6%[5] - The inventory growth rate remains higher than the revenue growth rate, indicating ongoing inventory pressure[5] - Future uncertainties in exports and potential challenges in various sectors may impact corporate profitability, necessitating attention to new fiscal policies and reserve measures[5]

国泰海通证券研报表示，延续前期观点，白酒行业2025年第二季度产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价格 端压力大于量的压力，从库存周期视角看，白酒产业或完全进入到库存周期后半段，在此维度下，大部 分企业短期业绩表现愈发赖于核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱动，份额逻辑演 绎到最后阶段。白酒商品属性正在加速重塑，其快消品属性强化，能够提前适应快消品运作逻辑的企业 竞争优势会愈发凸显。股价层面，白酒板块配置价值凸显：1)分红层面有潜力：当下头部企业股息率接 近或大于3%；2)动态估值基本回落至历史区间低位；3)后续具备潜在催化因素，例如房价等资产价格边 际企稳，内需政策等；4)选股层面，首选具备份额逻辑的企业。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China trade relations and tariff policies on shipping demand and pricing dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Demand**: The average tariffs between the U.S. and China are currently between 48% and 55%, significantly pressuring Chinese manufacturing and potentially affecting corporate profitability and stock performance [1][3][4]. - **Shipping Rate Increases**: Container shipping companies have rapidly increased rates, with prices on the West Coast reaching $3,000 and the East Coast hitting $4,000. This reflects an intention to recover previous losses and enter a profit growth phase [1][5]. - **Inventory Replenishment Trends**: Although U.S. container imports are higher than last year, there has been a decline in freight volume between China and the U.S. from mid-April to mid-May, indicating that actual replenishment efforts are below expectations [1][8]. - **Supply Constraints**: The West Coast is experiencing a significant under-allocation of shipping capacity, which is expected to lead to a new round of price increases in June, potentially surpassing historical highs [1][10]. - **Future Demand Projections**: U.S. goods demand is expected to be stronger in 2025 compared to 2024, but there may be a cooling period post-tariff adjustments. Overall freight volume is anticipated to increase throughout the year [1][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Pricing Dynamics**: The concentration of capacity allocation on South American routes is leading to price increases, while the overall impact on other routes remains limited [3][13]. - **Market Adjustments by Smaller Companies**: Smaller shipping companies in Southeast Asia are adjusting their routes to capitalize on profit opportunities, indicating a competitive market environment [14][16]. - **ETF and Stock Performance**: The expansion of ETF sizes and the inclusion of companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings in dividend indices are changing stock pricing models, leading to reduced volatility and more stable investment options [21][23][24]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The expectation is that broad-based ETFs will dominate, while industry-specific ETFs will have a lower share, influencing stock prices through index-based pricing mechanisms [25]. - **Impact of U.S. Inventory Replenishment**: The anticipated monthly replenishment in the U.S. is expected to exceed current shipping capacity, necessitating higher demands on shipping routes [26]. - **Potential Port Congestion**: There is a possibility of renewed congestion at U.S. ports, although not to the extent seen during the pandemic, which could still affect other shipping routes [27]. - **Regional Company Performance**: Companies like SeaLand International are benefiting from the supply contraction in Southeast Asia and stable demand, although challenges may arise in 2026 as U.S. inventory cycles decline [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry amidst evolving trade dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural growth driven by new consumption trends, highlighting the resonance of channel and category innovation in boosting the performance of consumer goods [2][3]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption represents a structural dividend, with channel and category innovations driving growth. The retail efficiency is improving, and the younger demographic is increasingly contributing to consumption [2]. - The consumer landscape is evolving with a clear shift towards new channels and product categories, driven by regional differentiation in consumer groups and rising demands for diverse products [2]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Alcohol Industry - The consumer goods sector is favored for new consumption and high growth potential, while the liquor industry is seen as seeking a bottom but showing significant configuration value [3]. - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of inventory cycle adjustment, with most companies relying on market share gains in core markets and the performance of mid-tier and lower-tier products [3]. - The article notes that the attributes of liquor products are being reshaped, enhancing their fast-moving consumer goods characteristics, which will benefit companies that adapt to FMCG operational logic [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The liquor sector shows configuration value due to potential dividends, with leading companies having dividend yields close to or exceeding 3% [3]. - Dynamic valuations in the liquor sector have reverted to historically low levels, with potential catalysts such as stabilization in housing prices and domestic demand policies [3]. - Stock selection should prioritize companies with strong market share logic [3].

华泰证券研报表示，大势上，结合信用周期指引与财报线索，A股仍处于库存周期弱企稳，产能周期继 续出清的阶段，向上弹性待改善。同时，政策抓落实、稳预期，支撑风险偏好，市场或处于"上有顶、 下有底"的状态。风格上，中期维持红利+内需+科技的哑铃型配置，做多波动率。红利内部，国有行、 水电等运营性资产仍是底仓。科技和内需强调左侧思维，科技内部，AI和军工电子若调整仍可中期布 局。内需内部，三个筛选条件：1)供给收缩有约束；2)政府支出受益；3)人民币升值受益，建议超配航 空、饮料乳品等。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" phase. Although the inventory growth rate of the entire industrial sector remained flat compared to last month, the largest number of industries, 16 in total, are in the "active restocking" state, so it is determined that the industry inventory cycle is in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Inventory Cycle Overview - In March 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of finished - product inventories of industrial enterprises remained flat at 4.2% compared to last month [9][10]. - The inventory cycle of the entire industrial sector continues in the "active restocking" state [16][17]. 2. Inventory Cycle Overview (by Industry) - **Upstream Industry**: The upstream industry (mining, accounting for only 2% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [18]. - **Mid - stream Industry**: The mid - stream industry (mid - upstream manufacturing, accounting for 54% of total inventory) is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [19]. - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry (downstream manufacturing and utilities, accounting for 43% of total inventory) has returned to the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [20]. - **Specific Industries**: - Electronics is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Electrical machinery is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [21]. - Chemicals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Paper is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [23]. - Automobiles is in the "active destocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Non - ferrous metals is in the "passive restocking" state in March 2025 [28]. - Instrumentation is in the "active restocking" state in March 2025 [33]. - General equipment is in the "passive destocking" state in March 2025 [33].

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current stage represents the "beginning of the end" of the Sino-US game, with a "temporary easing of external pressure" as the macro - background, preparing for the 2.0 game in the future [3]. - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [5]. - In an optimistic scenario, the end of the current inventory cycle decline may be seen in 2025. Attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market due to the accelerated bottom - hitting of the cycle and the switch of macro - assets within the year, such as the peak of gold and the steepening of the yield curve [5]. - Regarding strategies, as the economic cycle shifts from the inventory cycle decline to the capacity cycle rise, attention should be paid to the annual inflection point of gold. For Chinese bonds, with the phased improvement of risk assets, attention should be paid to the space for RMB asset allocation provided by the accelerated decline of the inventory cycle, and the yield curve will switch to steep, maintaining a strategic steepening position (+2s10s) [6]. Summary by Directory Why is it now - The macro - background of China's package of financial policies on May 7th is the "temporary easing of external pressure", reaching a window for "easing" to prepare for the future 2.0 game [11]. Review 4 - month pressure events - In April, the global economy released a pessimistic outlook. The US announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, deteriorating the global trade environment. Direct exports to the US in April began to decline, and spot freight rates also continued to fall [12]. - The US financial market faced pressure in April. With the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" and China's "reciprocal counter - measures", the instability of the US financial market increased, and the US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar showed short - term downward pressure. Asian currencies appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to the hedging of currency mismatch pressure by a Taiwanese insurance company [12]. - Under the influence of uncertainty, monetary policies gradually turned loose. The ECB cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points on April 17th, and the Bank of Japan postponed the interest rate hike for the second time on May 1st and lowered GDP and inflation forecasts [12]. Performance 1: Market pressure - Gold prices reflect the "damage" to the US dollar credit. Since the US launched "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar, bonds, and stocks have fluctuated significantly, increasing market concerns about the US dollar credit. Although US stocks rebounded at the end of April, the loosening of financial conditions driven by the rising volatility of US stocks is significantly converging, and attention should be paid to the evolution of internal contradictions in the US [17]. - The Fed's balance - sheet policy needs to cooperate. The large refinancing scale of US bonds in the middle of this year has shocked the market. The current benchmark interest rate of 4.50 - 4.75% still poses pressure on fiscal refinancing. Before the final implementation of policy games, US stocks still face the risk of a second adjustment [18]. Performance 2: Economic pressure - The global economy will face downward pressure due to the trade war. In April, the global manufacturing prosperity declined significantly, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, China's to 49.0, and the US's to 48.7. Structurally, it shows a decline in Chinese demand and a rise in US prices [21]. What are the incremental information - On May 12th, the Sino - US joint statement was released. In terms of the background, it was a "talk" rather than a "negotiation". In the tariff aspect, the current tariff policy will be adjusted to "one cancellation, one suspension, and one retention" before May 14th, canceling tariffs imposed after April 8th, suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days, and retaining 10% tariffs. The statement did not mention "fentanyl tariffs". In the non - tariff aspect, a mechanism will be established to negotiate economic and trade relations [25][26]. About tariffs - The 90 - day tariff suspension provides a time window for Sino - US negotiations, boosting market risk appetite. The US still needs to impose about 49% tariffs on China, and China's corresponding counter - measures still need to implement about 40% tariffs, which will cause inflationary pressure on US enterprises and consumers [31][34]. About non - tariffs - The Sino - US joint statement mentioned establishing a mechanism to continue negotiating economic and trade relations. The establishment of the communication mechanism may provide space for Trump's domestic policies before the mid - term elections. In different fields, such as trade, geopolitics, regulation, and tax cuts, corresponding developments are expected [35][37]. How to view the macro - market - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [39]. Risks in the current downward stage - The cycle is in a downward phase in 2025. The Trump tariff war and the May 12th joint statement will accelerate the cycle to "bottom out", and attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market [40]. Outlook for the future upward stage - The "beginning of the end" of the Sino - US game is expected to accelerate the global cycle's shift from the current downward stage (global central bank interest rate cuts) to the upward stage (global fiscal expansion). Optimistically, the "low point" of this cycle will be reached within the year, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - assets [44][45].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一） 一、业绩增长：A 股盈利回升转正，净利率是主要驱动 1.1 业绩增长：A 股盈利 24Q4 进一步下探、25Q1 回升转正 ——全 A/全 A 非金融业绩增速 2024 年四季度进一步下探，2025 年一 季度回升转正。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 归母净利润同比分别为 3.58%/4.28%，环比分别变动 5.94/17.26pct；全 A/全 A 非金融 24Q4 归 母净利润同比分别为-2.36%/-12.99%，环比分别变动-2.30/-5.75pct。 ——上市板看，主板业绩保持韧性、创业板业绩弹性较强；宽基指数看， 大盘业绩增速小幅回落，中小盘盈利明显修复；行业风格看，科技 TMT、 可选消费、中游制造业绩占优，中游制造、科技 TMT、上游资源增速改善。 1.2 营收增长：A 股营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增 ——全 A/全 A 非金融营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 营业收入同比分别为-0 ...