币安人生这波拉伸直接拉到各单位群友止盈了，早上 200M 追了一波这会儿也有点舒服和之前想的一样，绝对是深度洗盘之后再拉，更有持久性你笑二圣不懂 meme，二圣笑你不懂流动性后续中文合约和 alpha 需要更加重视了 ...

最近除了币安人生和几个 BSC 的小土狗就没怎么玩了，但 BTC 的流动性有很明显回来的趋势，美股那边 $MSTR 也在抬头，而且 BSC 上也出来了几十 M 的阴谋盘可见的是，这波 BSC 终于开始打先手了，所以 BSC 搞事大盘就结束的规律终于被打破了，而后续就需要更多参与市场的重视这几项：- 板块轮动如 AI- 新 TGE 的项目- 新出现的土狗龙头Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):说下这两天对 BSC 和 SOL 的思考吧首先有关上限的问题，SOL 上的新土狗比如白鲸确实是比 BSC 高太多，但就我自己来说，基本看到 5-20M 我就不敢上了。客观说，对自己今年的风险评估属于避险，也就是减少不必要的亏损，所以之前 SOL 上很高市值的 meme 都是没有去接盘的而 BSC https://t.co/iIcUNrjT4C ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are injecting significant liquidity into the financial system, which investors perceive as having effects similar to quantitative easing (QE) despite official denials [1][2] - A series of policies, including a directive to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, are aimed at stimulating the economy ahead of the midterm elections [1][3] Group 1: Policy Actions - The Trump administration has ordered government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in MBS to lower mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [1][3] - The Federal Reserve has purchased $54.43 billion in short-term Treasury securities since December, with expectations of buying between $220 billion and $300 billion in the first year [2][3] - Regulatory relaxations, such as the GENIUS Act and reduced capital requirements for banks, are designed to create more credit space for major lending institutions [4] Group 2: Market Implications - The combination of MBS purchases and the Fed's balance sheet expansion creates a multi-faceted liquidity injection mechanism that may lead to increased cash flow into risk assets [5] - The influx of liquidity could push asset prices higher, even if valuations appear excessive, as investors may feel a "bottom support" in prices [6] - Concerns about inflation are rising, with M2 money supply growth currently over 4%, but experts suggest inflation risks may only become serious if growth reaches 6% to 8% [6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand - Construction starts are warming up, with a seasonal recovery in some operating rates; residential construction is performing better than infrastructure[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rates of asphalt plants and mills are higher than the same period in 2025[2] - Cement supply for infrastructure projects has a significant year-on-year decline, while residential cement usage is close to the levels of the same period in 2025[2] Group 2: Industrial Production - Chemical production remains strong, while automotive steel tires and coking show weaker performance[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rate of PX remains at a historical high, while PTA's operating rate is at a historical median[21] Group 3: Demand Weakness - Construction demand remains weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical low apparent demand levels[3] - Passenger car rolling sales continue to show negative growth year-on-year[3] - Major home appliance sales, both online and offline, remain weak, with indices showing significant declines compared to previous years[38] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached new historical highs in recent weeks[40] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing upward trends, driven by non-ferrous metals[43] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show a significant year-on-year decline, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down by 48% compared to 2024 and 2025[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing negative year-on-year changes of -39%, -17%, and -39% respectively[62] Group 6: Export Trends - Export growth is expected to slow, with models indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.4% for the first 11 days of January[64]

Group 1: Concerns about Federal Reserve Independence - UBS suggests that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to a more hawkish stance in monetary policy [1] - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to continue making data-driven decisions despite the pressure from the criminal investigation against Chairman Powell [1][2] - Rabobank indicates that increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve could result in higher volatility for the dollar in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Rabobank warns that the investigation into Powell could reignite "sell-America" trades, posing significant downside risks for the dollar [2] - ABN Amro suggests that the investigation may delay any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as officials may adopt a more hawkish stance to defend the institution [2] - The Swiss franc has become a favored safe-haven currency amid concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts and Trends - State Street Global Advisors reports a greater than 30% probability that spot gold will exceed $5,000 per ounce this year, driven by geopolitical dynamics and Federal Reserve policies [2] - Fitch Ratings anticipates a moderate recovery of the Japanese yen from historical lows by 2026, despite ongoing challenges in the labor market [4] - Zhongjin Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by approximately 50 basis points in 2026 due to weak employment data [8]

1. Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Liquidity and Institutional Behavior Weekly Observation: CD Rates May Face Upward Pressure, Pay Attention to Allocation Value after Adjustment" and covers the period from January 5th to January 18th, 2026 [1][2]. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the impact of capital frozen by new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange on the capital market should be noted from January 12th to 16th, 2026. In the medium - term, cash withdrawals by residents before the Spring Festival in mid - January will affect market liquidity, and the pressure of "deposit migration" in banks also needs further observation. The CD rates are expected to face upward pressure in the first quarter, and it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of CDs after adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Capital Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 122.14 billion yuan, and the 3M repurchase was renewed at the same amount of 110 billion yuan. From January 12th - 16th, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 13.87 billion yuan and 6M repurchases worth 60 billion yuan will expire [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.27% and 1.34% respectively, down 0.4 and 5.3 basis points compared to December 29th - 31st, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, down 30.0 and 54.1 basis points [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From January 5th - 11th, 2026, the government bond net payment was about 43.27 billion yuan, including about 31.5 billion yuan for national bonds and about 11.77 billion yuan for local government bonds. From January 12th - 18th, the government bond net payment is expected to be - 9.31 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield**: As of January 9th, 2026, the yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.5325% and 1.5950% respectively, up 3.7 and 5.5 basis points compared to December 31st, 2025. The 1Y NCD yield was 1.6325%, up 0.8 basis points [8]. - **Net Financing**: From January 5th - 11th, 2026, the NCD net financing was about - 15.2 billion yuan. From January 12th - 18th, the NCD maturity repayment is expected to be 80.85 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the renewal scale [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Bank - Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the bank - interbank bond market was 108.11%, up from 107.78% in the period of December 29th - 31st, 2025. On January 9th, 2026, it was about 108.19%, compared to about 107.36% on December 31st, 2025 [9]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On January 9th, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.89 years, down 0.21 years week - on - week, at the 91.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.87 years, up 0.18 years week - on - week, at the 59.8% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline on January 13, ending a continuous upward trend, but the trading volume reached a new historical high, indicating concentrated trading structures and potential sector rotation [2][11]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.96%. Notably, commercial aerospace stocks faced significant declines, and the computing hardware industry chain, including servers and CPOs, led the downturn. In contrast, sectors such as AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, medical services, and ultra-high voltage concepts showed strength [7][10]. Trading Volume Insights - The A-share market's trading volume approached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. Analysts attribute this surge to several factors, including positive policy expectations, strong liquidity support from long-term funds, and heightened market sentiment [12][13][14]. Policy Expectations - As the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," market participants have a more proactive outlook on policy direction. Analysts expect the central economic work conference to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption, with a continuation of "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policies into 2026, providing strong confidence support for the market [12]. Liquidity Factors - The record trading volume is supported by significant inflows of new capital. Long-term funds, including public funds and newly issued ETFs, have contributed to market liquidity. The margin trading balance has increased to over 2.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust bullish sentiment among investors [13]. Market Sentiment - The previous widespread increase in individual stocks has led to positive feedback among investors, attracting more capital into the market. Analysts suggest that advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance are becoming new growth engines, indicating further upward potential for the Chinese stock market [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Core Viewpoint - The market is at the peak of a 35-year cycle, and 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year where forgotten assets will surge, potentially creating a significant bubble [1][50]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Inflation - A continued interest rate cut in January is highly probable, which could lead to a surge in precious metals if the U.S. long-term inflation expectations remain uncontrolled [4][52]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from approximately $9.1 trillion to just over $6 trillion, impacting liquidity and potentially leading to further rate cuts [15][59]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Analysis - Gold has formed a standard "cup and handle" pattern since 2011, with a 99% probability of price increase once this pattern is established [4][21]. - The fair value of gold is estimated to be around $4,500, indicating it is currently in a reasonable valuation range [5][27]. - Silver has also formed a 60-year giant "cup and handle" pattern, suggesting that its price has not yet reached its peak [7][30]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - If gold prices do not decline, other commodities are expected to rise, as various gold-related ratios remain at historical lows [7][72]. - The current market conditions, characterized by abundant liquidity, are likely to lead to a significant bubble by 2026, coinciding with the peak of the 35-year cycle [10][54]. - The relationship between global liquidity and asset prices indicates that silver's price is expected to continue rising over the next 3 to 6 months [32][77].