【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远不会停止！基本面来看， 供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全 球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需 求增加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下 房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is rising against the dollar, reaching a nearly four-year high, influenced by a weakening dollar and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariff suspension period of 90 days is set to end on July 9, contributing to the pressure on the dollar [1] - Analysts from Monex Europe suggest that if ECB President Lagarde expresses caution regarding interest rate cuts, it could provide additional support for the euro [1] - There is a potential limitation on the positive impact of Lagarde's comments due to the possibility of Fed Chair Powell also maintaining a cautious stance [1] Group 2 - Both central bank leaders will speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, at 21:30 Beijing time [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising gold prices driven by a weakening dollar and increasing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade agreements, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Gold price reached $3339.29 per ounce, marking a 1.11% increase, the highest in three trading days, reflecting the unique appeal of gold in the current market environment [1] - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, which has intensified bullish sentiment towards gold [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming labor market data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have been in a bullish trend, with potential upward movement towards $3400 if certain support levels hold [3] - The possibility of a bearish trend exists if gold prices fall below key support levels, which could lead to a decline towards $2500 or lower, although this scenario is currently deemed unlikely due to expected interest rate cuts [3]

新华财经北京7月1日电今年年初时，美国股市基准指数一度创下历史新高。但当美国4月份宣布对几乎 所有全球贸易伙伴提高关税的计划时，标准普尔500指数进入了熊市，从最高点短暂下跌了20%。美债 收益率也不祥地上升，美元暴跌，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指标）飙升。 据美国财政部数据，10年期美债收益率1月14日创下4.79%的年中最高纪录，而在4月4日创下4.01%的年 中最低纪录。 而超长期美债，如30年期美债上半年的走势与10年期美债在4月前基本一致，而5月下旬则创下年中 5.08%的最高纪录，显示投资者在这个时间段对长期限债券的抛售。 "在这种环境下，债券投资者可以获得相对于通胀更高的收益率，因此，对于目前投资债券的人来说， 这是一个明确的积极因素，"美银固定收益策略首席投资官马修·迪佐克表示。 他补充说，"对于高税率阶层的客户来说，目前固定收益市场中最具吸引力的机会之一是市政债券市 场。这类债券的供应并没有像美国国债债和公司债券那样增长。估值看起来更好。" 而在拟议的关税暂停后，金融市场反弹，并迅速收复了5月中旬的全部损失。美林和美国银行私人银行 首席投资官克里斯·海兹表示："这是一次强劲而迅速的反弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

| CE KERD | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | 人业资格号:F025 以 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | 震荡 | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场风险偏好改善, | 金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農汤 | 百金 | | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 白银 | | | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 外挤仓行情发酵,短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存5 | | | | | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化 | 氢化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steepening of the yield curve is partly a response to the high uncertainty surrounding the global economy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey highlighted that the yield curve's steepening reflects market reactions to economic uncertainties [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of curiosity in navigating uncertainty and fear, suggesting that curiosity can provide a sense of agency and connection in chaotic times [2][9]. Group 1: Curiosity and Fear - Curiosity has increased by 1%, as it allows individuals to confront fear and uncertainty more effectively [3]. - The relationship between fear and curiosity is explored, highlighting that curiosity can help individuals cope with fear by shifting focus from anxiety to learning and growth [4][9]. Group 2: Practical Strategies - The article provides actionable strategies to maintain resilience in the face of uncertainty, such as asking better questions to break the cycle of fear [7]. - It encourages individuals to articulate what is true in the present moment, countering the tendency of fear to project into the future [8]. - Maintaining curiosity about one's fears can reveal underlying values and desires, transforming fear from a threat into a signal for deeper understanding [8]. Group 3: Staying Grounded Amid Chaos - The strategies discussed do not eliminate chaos but offer a way to remain clear-headed and connected to oneself and others during uncertain times [9]. - Choosing curiosity over control and questions over answers can help individuals stay rooted in reality and remain sensitive to future developments [9].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant decline in American consumers' willingness to spend on consumer electronics amid the current economic climate, with low-income groups decreasing by 3 percentage points to -18% and high-income groups dropping by 18 percentage points to -9% [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The AlphaWise consumer survey reveals that as of June, consumer sentiment regarding the economic outlook has worsened, with spending willingness reaching a pre-tariff low. 10% of consumers expect the economy to deteriorate in the next six months, a 4 percentage point increase from May [1][2] - High-income consumers exhibit the most pronounced pessimism, with a 12 percentage point decrease in their economic outlook [1] Spending Intentions - In June, the net spending intention for consumer electronics fell by 2 percentage points to -3%, while the net spending intention for PCs dropped by 4 percentage points to -7%. Over the next six months, the net spending intention for consumer electronics is expected to decline further by 7 percentage points to -15% [2] - The decline in spending willingness is evident across both low-income and high-income groups, with high-income consumers showing a particularly sharp increase in pessimism [2] Impact of Tariffs - 33% of respondents indicated that tariffs would lead to reduced overall spending in the next three months, although this figure improved by 3 percentage points compared to May. The impact of tariffs is more pronounced among lower-income consumers, with 33% of those earning under $50,000 planning to cut spending, and 37% among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 [2] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the economic outlook for American consumers remains uncertain, predicting a more challenging market for consumer electronics over the next six months. This conclusion is supported by various data points, including consumer sentiment, spending intentions, and the impact of tariffs [2][4] Data Analysis - The report includes various charts and data, such as a direct positive correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.66) between the economic outlook and future consumer electronics spending intentions, as well as comparisons with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [4] - The findings highlight the severe challenges facing the consumer electronics market, driven by deteriorating consumer sentiment, declining spending intentions, and the effects of tariffs [4]