Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant rally since June, with prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Analysts express optimism about silver's future performance, attributing recent price increases to the passage of the U.S. tax reduction bill, which is seen as a fiscal stimulus that supports silver's commodity attributes [1] - Three factors are expected to influence silver's short-term performance: reduced uncertainty in tariff policies weakening silver's safe-haven appeal, the implementation of the U.S. tax reduction bill potentially boosting the economy, and a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, which constitutes 50% of its total demand, is expected to provide additional support as market expectations for an economic "soft landing" rise, leading to stronger performance in industrial metals [2] - The rotation of funds from high-priced gold to more elastic silver and other precious metals is noted, as investors seek better value during gold's plateau phase [2] Group 3: Long-term Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the confluence of industrial demand and improved financial attributes of silver may lead to continued excess returns [3] - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will break the $40 per ounce mark in the coming months, raising its three-month target price from $38 to $40 and its six to twelve-month target from $43 [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June, the overseas market saw a resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade, while domestic market sentiment was buoyed by a mild economic recovery[1] - The "Goldilocks" trade was driven by three factors: successful implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," lower-than-expected inflation data in May, and resilient employment data despite a mild economic slowdown[2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.3% since July 7, while the US dollar rebounded by 0.9%[5] Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - Domestic economic recovery was supported by effective consumption policies, with retail sales growth in May reaching a new high since 2024[3] - The core CPI in June rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating sustained domestic demand release[3] - Manufacturing PMI in June exceeded expectations, with domestic orders recovering faster than new export orders[3] Group 3: Key Concerns for July - Overseas, the focus shifted to potential inflation risks, with rising retail prices and manufacturing price indices indicating upward inflation pressure in the US[4] - Domestic attention remains on "anti-involution" policies aimed at balancing supply and demand, with a focus on structural upgrades in industries[4] - The US announced tariff increases on 14 countries effective August 1, with rates including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and 30% on South Africa[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls in June adding 147,000 jobs, primarily supported by government sectors[3][4] - The US fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to reach $804.4 billion, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years[5]

Group 1 - President Trump threatened to raise the baseline tariff rate to 20%, citing record stock market gains to alleviate concerns about global economic impacts [1] - The market appears to be experiencing "tariff fatigue," with traders seemingly desensitized to economic risks, as indicated by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping to its lowest level since February [2] - Analysts warn that the current market pricing reflects an overly optimistic view of tariff risks and economic conditions, with the S&P 500 index being considered overbought [2][3] Group 2 - The potential for increased tariffs may inadvertently provide a stronger basis for the administration to impose them, as financial indicators are viewed as measures of policy success by Trump [2] - Current economic impacts from tariffs have not yet materialized, with controlled inflation in the U.S. and strong Asian exports, although concerns about sustainability in growth remain [3] - The repeated threats of tariffs are seen as a strategy to accelerate negotiations, allowing Trump to claim victories without investors becoming overly concerned about each tweet or decision [3]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment is better than the previous cycle. The contraction of the US manufacturing industry is offset by the growth of personal consumption, leading to a significant decline in inflation without a notable increase in unemployment. With the Fed's good expectation management, the current economic cycle has the conditions for a "soft landing", and the liquidity release caused by preventive interest rate cuts is beneficial to commodities. In Europe, the "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and increase in terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [1][44]. - The domestic macro - environment is weaker than the previous cycle. The rapid decline of M1, the positive scissors - difference between M2 and the year - on - year growth of social financing stock, and the widening of the scissors - difference between M1 and M2 reflect the decline in social financing demand and the decrease in market risk preference. However, the appreciation of the RMB caused by overseas interest rate cuts is conducive to the implementation of domestic monetary policies. In the real estate industry, high household leverage and urbanization rates restrict the maneuvering space of the current real estate cycle. High inventory of commercial housing and insufficient potential purchasing power will lead to a deeper active de - stocking. In the manufacturing industry, changes in domestic consumption structure and the increase in potential external demand make the current manufacturing cycle more resilient. Although infrastructure funds are still increasing, they are mainly invested in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries is gradually declining. China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume. Although there are more trade barriers, cost advantages ensure that the export volume can still be maintained [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - environment Comparison 3.1.1 US: Interest Rate Cuts Lead to Liquidity Release and Commodities Benefit - In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, the US market was relatively stable with a low federal funds target rate of 0.25% from December 2008 to December 2015. Unemployment rate declined year - by - year, CPI and core CPI fluctuated within a controllable range, PMI data showed manufacturing expansion, and personal consumption expenditure was stable. In the current cycle, the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, with strong potential for interest rate cuts to release liquidity. The continuous significant decline in CPI and core CPI and the stable labor market lay the foundation for preventive interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the economy. The expected interest rate cuts will release liquidity in the money market, which is beneficial to commodities [5]. 3.1.2 Europe: Potential for Liquidity Release - Europe's "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted due to the unified management of the euro by the European Central Bank system and the large differences in economic volume and resilience among EU member states. Previous interest rate hikes suppressed terminal demand, causing CPI and manufacturing PMI to decline. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [11]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - and Meso - level Comparison 3.2.1 Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - M1 has contracted more severely in this cycle, indicating greater economic downward pressure. In terms of steel consumption potential, it may be weaker than the previous cycle as households are restricted by the real estate market and local governments are burdened with debt, while the central government still has room to increase leverage. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock has been lower than that of M2 since early 2022, and the widening scissors - difference between M1 and M2 shows a decrease in market risk preference. There is still room to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio and LPR, and the appreciation of the RMB after the Fed's interest rate cuts provides space for the implementation of domestic monetary policies [14][16][18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate Industry: Active De - stocking Continues and Downward Pressure is Greater than the Previous Cycle - The real estate industry is a pro - cyclical industry. There is a positive correlation between steel prices and real estate development investment, and M1 and commercial housing sales generally move in the same direction. In this cycle, the real estate industry has greater downward pressure. The real estate development investment and funds have been in negative growth since 2022, and the high household leverage and urbanization rates limit the maneuvering space. The inventory of commercial housing is increasing, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory through price increases. The active de - stocking behavior caused by weak supply and demand may lead to a decline in real estate - related commodity prices [20][22][24]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Industry: Domestic and External Demands Show Resonance - The manufacturing industry is a pro - cyclical industry, and there is a positive correlation between steel prices and manufacturing investment. In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, manufacturing investment declined from 30% to 5%. In the current cycle, manufacturing investment has been stable at around 10%, supported by new energy vehicles, ships, containers, and policy incentives. The "two - new" support funds in 2025 are 300 billion yuan, twice that of 2024, which is conducive to the benign cycle of domestic demand. There is a positive correlation between China's export amount and the PMI of European and American manufacturing industries, indicating resonance between domestic and external demands. The US economy may achieve a soft landing, and there is a possibility of upward resonance of domestic and external demands, which will not drag down steel consumption [30][33]. 3.2.4 Infrastructure: New - quality Productivity Industries Gain Momentum while Traditional Steel - consuming Industries Slow Down - Infrastructure is a counter - cyclical adjustment tool, and there is an inverse correlation between infrastructure investment growth rate and steel prices. In the 2010 - 2016 period, local governments were the main entities for leveraging through urban investment bonds. After 2022, with the decline in land transfer revenue, the proportion of special bonds increased, and policy - based development tools and ultra - long - term treasury bonds can also supplement infrastructure funds. Although the total infrastructure funds are still increasing, the investment is mainly in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries such as roads, railways, and public facilities is gradually declining [35][37][39]. 3.2.5 Export: Trading Price for Volume, Pattern Remains Unchanged - China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume, with an inverse correlation between export quantity and price since 2007. When domestic demand is strong, exports are restricted; when domestic demand is weak, high production leads to an exploration of export paths. Since 2022, some overseas countries have imposed high tariffs or conducted anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel products, increasing export costs and slightly reducing export volume. However, due to cost advantages, China's steel still has global appeal, and the high - volume export pattern is difficult to change. About 70% of steel exports go to Asia, and the trade pattern has been basically stable since 2010 [42][43].

Market Review - The international environment has become increasingly complex, with gold leading the rise among major asset classes. In the first half of 2025, uncertainties in U.S. policies, global trade, and geopolitical factors have intensified, particularly due to the "America First" policies of the Trump administration, which have significantly disrupted global capital markets. As a result, global asset volatility has increased, with gold leading gains, a weakening dollar, differentiated equity performance, and fluctuations in the bond market [2][10][9]. U.S. Market - The Trump administration's policies are expected to lead to a soft landing for the economy. The labor market is gradually cooling, with limited upward movement in the unemployment rate. Consumer spending is being affected by layoffs, tariffs, and demand exhaustion, but income growth is providing some support. Corporate investment sentiment is weakening, and profit growth is slowing, but the extent is manageable [2][30][36]. - Inflation is facing downward pressure, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed. Tariffs are likely to push prices up, particularly in the third quarter. The federal budget expansion will continue, and debt pressure is unlikely to ease significantly [2][30][36]. Dollar Cycle - A weak dollar cycle is expected to begin, leading to a rebalancing of global asset allocation. The dollar is likely to enter a long-term bear market due to interest rate differentials, inflation differentials, and pressures from international capital allocation. Historical data suggests that a new weak dollar cycle would likely lead to higher commodity prices and lower U.S. Treasury yields, with U.S. stocks underperforming emerging market equities [2][30][36]. - In the second half of the year, the dollar may still experience fluctuations due to the soft landing of the U.S. economy, sticky inflation, and delayed interest rate cuts. Geopolitical and trading factors may also drive short-term rebounds in the dollar [2][30][36]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The focus is on profit structure recovery, with expectations for upward potential. The domestic economy is expected to stabilize under supportive policies, leading to continued profit recovery in certain sectors. The liquidity environment is favorable, with foreign capital remaining optimistic about China's economic and policy certainty. The anticipated inflow of southbound capital and the active primary market will create investment opportunities in the secondary market [2][30][36]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for Hong Kong stocks in Q3, with potential for profit and valuation recovery in Q4 as domestic policy effects become evident and U.S. Treasury yields marginally decline. Key investment themes include technology innovation sectors, quality assets in domestic consumption supported by policy, and stable dividend-paying assets [2][30][36].

分析师表示，第一项催化因素是美联储年度压力测试的结果。测试显示，在假设的经济衰退情景下，所 有22家接受测试的银行的普通股一级资本充足率(CET1)均高于最低要求。分析师认为，测试结果可能 促使资金重新配置至地区性银行，投资者已开始计入CET1资本要求降低的可能性。 数据显示，自今年年初以来，截至上周五收盘，美国地区性银行股(KRX)累计下跌2.9%，落后于大型银 行股9.1%的涨幅、以及标普500指数5%的涨幅。 美银证券表示，美国地区银行股一直落后于大型银行股和整体股市，不过一些政策和宏观因素可能改变 这种状况。分析师Ebrahim Poonawala列出了一些可能促使地区性银行股迎头赶上的催化因素，并特别 指出，若出现有助于增强市场对美联储降息和实现经济软着陆信心的利好因素，将成为提振地区性银行 股的关键。 分析师在报告中写道："虽然地区性银行股此前表现不佳，但我们认为宏观经济前景改善及银行并购交 易的回暖，将成为推动该板块资金流入的催化剂。" 第二项催化因素是将于7月3日发布的美国6月非农就业报告。分析师指出："如果就业市场出现明显裂 痕，可能重新点燃对信贷质量的担忧——尽管目前大多数投资者对此几乎未 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing rapid shifts in sentiment due to various driving factors, including geopolitical risks, unexpected policy announcements, and conflicting macroeconomic data [1][2] - Geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., have a direct and strong impact on market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in oil prices (over 11%) and a rise in U.S. stock markets [1] - Unexpected policy announcements, particularly from political figures like Trump regarding trade negotiations and sanctions, can quickly reverse market gains, highlighting the fragility of the current optimistic sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The presence of contradictory macroeconomic signals, such as a decline in U.S. GDP alongside an increase in core PCE, indicates early signs of "stagflation," complicating market assessments of economic conditions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policies is heightened by these macroeconomic indicators, potentially affecting market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Upcoming bank stress test results, while routine, could amplify market vulnerabilities if negative surprises occur, especially following the banking turmoil of 2023 [2] Group 3 - The focus for the upcoming week will shift to key economic data, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report being crucial for assessing labor market health and its implications for economic growth and inflation [3] - The importance of the services PMI is emphasized, as the services sector is a major component of the U.S. economy, while global manufacturing challenges are indicated by China's PMI contraction [3] - European inflation and employment data will also play a significant role in shaping the European Central Bank's policy outlook [3] Group 4 - The upcoming holiday factors, such as Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day, are expected to reduce market liquidity, which could lead to more volatile market reactions to economic data and unexpected news [4] - In a low liquidity environment, even expected data releases may trigger more severe market movements, increasing the risk of "flash crashes" or "flash rallies" [4] Group 5 - The market is entering a critical period characterized by multiple intertwined uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, policy changes, conflicting macro data, and holiday liquidity [5] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant, focusing not only on the data results but also on their potential impacts on economic outlooks and policy expectations [5] - Effective risk management and flexible response strategies are essential in navigating this complex environment, as the market's next direction will largely depend on the evolution of these interacting forces [5]

Economic Growth and Structure - The Russian economy has shown resilience with an average GDP growth of over 4% in the past two years, surpassing the global average, and a 1.5% growth rate in the first four months of this year [2] - Non-resource GDP growth is more robust than overall growth, indicating a shift away from reliance on fossil fuel exports [2] - Inflation has decreased to single digits, allowing for potential cautious monetary policy easing [2] Transition to Balanced Growth - The key task for Russia this year is to ensure a transition to balanced economic growth, characterized by moderate inflation, low unemployment, and sustained positive development [3] - Five areas of transformation have been identified: changing employment and consumption patterns, optimizing the investment environment, enhancing technological innovation, improving the quality of foreign trade, and developing the military-industrial complex [3][4] Policy Discussions - The forum provided a platform for discussions on achieving a soft landing for the economy and structural changes, with varying opinions on the current economic situation [5][6] - The Ministry of Economic Development views the economy as being on the brink of crisis, while others believe it is merely in a cooling phase [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to maintain inflation at a target level of 4%, emphasizing the importance of sustainable economic growth [6] - There is a desire in the market for lower financing costs, with potential savings for the federal budget if the key interest rate is reduced [6] Currency Exchange Rate - The ruble is expected to gradually return to predicted levels as inflation eases and monetary policy is relaxed, with forecasts suggesting an average exchange rate of 94.3 rubles per dollar by 2025 [7] - Some experts argue for a moderate depreciation of the ruble to create favorable conditions for economic development [7]