Group 1: US Economic Data and Market Reactions - The ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - Following the disappointing employment report, the FOMC is expected to lower interest rates by 50-75 basis points this year, with potential further cuts in March and June 2026 [1] - US stock markets declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 220.43 points (0.48%) and the Nasdaq Composite down by 7.3 points (0.03%) [1] Group 2: Trade Policies and Tariffs - A confidential memorandum revealed that Japan agreed to let Trump decide the investment direction of its $550 billion in capital in the US to avoid high tariffs [2] - Trump signed an executive order adjusting the scope of import tariffs, allowing for zero tariffs on certain goods that cannot be produced in the US or are in short supply [3] Group 3: Domestic Economic Policies - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $332.22 billion as of the end of August, up by $29.9 billion (0.91%) from July [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [7] - Shenzhen announced new real estate policies to stimulate housing demand, allowing non-residents to purchase two homes in certain districts and removing restrictions on corporate purchases [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Bond Yields - The bond market saw rising yields, with 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bond yields at 1.3959%, 1.8260%, and 2.1123% respectively, indicating a widening yield spread [8] - The stock market's strong performance may continue to attract funds, potentially diverting investment away from the bond market [9]

Market Review - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by a gap between expectations and reality, particularly regarding the anticipated "moderate easing" monetary policy that did not materialize as expected [2][12][15] - The macroeconomic narrative has shifted, with a focus on combating "involution" and promoting high-quality development, as highlighted by various government initiatives [21][25] - The economic environment remains cold, with GDP growth in the first half of 2025 recorded at 5.3%, indicating a stabilization after three consecutive quarters of improvement [15][60] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes short-term positioning while engaging in long-term trading, with a focus on the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9% [110] - The bond market is expected to experience a weak overall trend with potential for rebounds, driven by the accumulation of realistic market expectations [65][69] - The current bond market participants are increasingly unstable, with a notable rise in individual investors holding public bond funds, which increased by 3.6% to 7.6% in the first half of 2024 [82][83] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield curve has shown a widening in term spreads, with the 10-1 year government bond spread at 43 basis points and the 30-10 year spread at 28 basis points as of September 3, 2025 [71][73] - The absolute level of interest rates remains low, with credit spreads for major bond varieties at historical lows, indicating a crowded secondary market with low coupon rates [93][104] - Historical data shows that years with a flat yield curve have occurred 67% of the time since 2010, suggesting a tendency for bond markets to rise during such periods [99][100]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant decline in bond prices, particularly highlighting the 30-year government bond yield rising from around 2.06% to over 2.11% in a single day [1][11] - The article attributes the bond market's volatility to new public fund regulations regarding redemption fees and rumors about tax exemptions, which have created a sensitive environment for bonds in a low-interest-rate context [12][11] - It emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation, suggesting that investors should adopt a diversified approach rather than focusing solely on the performance of individual assets like bonds [17][16] Group 2 - The article notes that A-shares have seen a decrease in trading volume, dropping from 3 trillion to 2 trillion, leading to a "pants-snatching" situation where liquidity is concentrated in a few hot sectors [21][22] - It highlights the performance of specific stocks, particularly in the AI and battery sectors, which have shown significant trading activity and volatility [25] - The article mentions the strong performance of Alibaba in the Hong Kong market, with substantial net buying from mainland investors, indicating a positive sentiment towards the stock [26][27]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant rise in gold prices driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns over debt, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to political pressures [2][15][16] - The market is currently pricing in a high likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with estimates suggesting 3-4 cuts totaling 75-100 basis points [2][15] - Concerns about fiscal discipline in developed countries, particularly with upcoming long-term bond issuances, have led to increased demand for gold as a "credit benchmark" [2][15][16] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic market may not experience the expected benefits from overseas interest rate cuts, as previous patterns of capital inflow have not been evident [25][26][29] - The divergence in monetary policy between domestic and overseas markets has persisted for nearly three years, suggesting that domestic interest rates may not follow the trend of international cuts [29][30] - The report notes that the current market environment may accelerate the reallocation of assets from bonds to equities, potentially putting further pressure on the bond market [31][35] Group 3 - The bond market has shown signs of weakness, with a notable "double kill" scenario where both stocks and bonds declined simultaneously, indicating fragile market sentiment [4][33] - Despite a brief recovery in the bond market, the overall performance remains lackluster compared to equities, which have shown resilience after recent corrections [5][32][35] - The report suggests adopting a "weak asset" mindset towards bonds, focusing on minimizing losses and seeking short-term trading opportunities rather than expecting sustained upward trends [6][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market has been in a "passive defense" mode, with a "follow - down but not follow - up" pattern. However, as the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may gradually shift from "passive defense" to "active repair." Although a trend - based repair may still need to wait, there may be a short - term repair window, allowing for the search of structural opportunities. But the stock - bond "seesaw" logic remains, and further stock market rises could suppress the bond market [4][30][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Review: Stable First, Then Decline, and Seasonal Easing of Funds - **Asymmetric Stock - Bond Linkage and Differentiated Long - and Short - End Performance**: The bond market continued the "passive defense" mode. When the stock market adjusted, the bond market's confidence needed to be strengthened, showing an oscillatory repair. When the stock market recovered, the bond market declined almost unilaterally. The long - and short - ends showed different characteristics: the short - end was "easy to rise and hard to fall," and the long - end was "down first, then up." The curve flattened, with the short - end being weak and the medium - and long - ends rising first and then falling. As of 9/5, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds changed by 2.6, - 2, - 1.2, - 2.5BP respectively compared to 8/29 [7][8]. - **Seasonal Easing of Funds at the Beginning of the Month**: The central bank's net reverse - repurchase liquidity withdrawal exceeded one trillion yuan at the beginning of the month, and the funds became seasonally loose. The volatility of fund rates decreased significantly, and the willingness of state - owned banks to lend recovered rapidly. The yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) fluctuated slightly. As of 9/5, compared to 8/29, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 decreased by 1.32BP, 7.86BP, 5.75BP, and 6.05BP respectively, and the secondary yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs changed by - 0.9, + 1.0, + 1.1, + 0.4, + 0.5BP respectively [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: Why Does the Bond Market "Follow Down but Not Follow Up"? - **Lack of Clear Driving Forces for Bond Market Repair**: Neither the fund nor the fundamental aspects provided clear driving forces for the bond market's repair. The fund was basically loose enough, mainly providing "bottom - support" rather than "driving strength." The fundamental faced structural repair pressure, and the market had sufficient expectations. The restart of government bond trading was uncertain in the short term [20]. - **Boosted Market Risk Appetite and Potential Negative Pressures**: The continuous efforts in real - estate policies and the rising "anti - involution" expectations boosted market risk appetite. The bond market was still worried about potential negative factors, and the sentiment was weak [21]. - **Absence of Allocation - Disk Support and Increased Bond Market Volatility**: The support of the allocation - disk was limited this year. The net purchase of over - 10 - year interest - rate bonds by relevant institutions decreased marginally. The initiative of the trading - disk to go long was not strong, and there was passive selling pressure. Bond funds were cautious about extending durations [25][26]. 3.3 Next Week's Concerns: Will the Bond Market's "Main Logic" Return? - **Weakening Stock Market Momentum and Bond Market Repair Foundation**: The A - share trading volume declined from its high last week, indicating that the upward momentum of the stock market may be weakening. The market's consensus on the weakening of the stock market's upward momentum will promote the repair of bond market sentiment. After the adjustment, the bond yield curve has certain trading value, and the abundant liquidity can support the bond market's repair [30]. - **Short - Term Repair Window and Potential Risks**: Although a trend - based repair may need to wait, the bond market may have a short - term repair window. However, the stock - bond "seesaw" logic still exists. If the stock market continues to rise moderately, it may suppress the bond market, and the redemption pressure of hybrid products may disrupt the repair process [31].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Market Adjustment, Bond Market Rebound - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was to rise first and then fall. There is an obvious seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds has changed little. The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand being slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly. The export of South Korea in August showed a certain growth. The wholesale price of agricultural products continued to rise, and the inflation pressure was limited in the short term. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - The main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On Monday, they refused to fall and rebounded to close a medium - positive line. On Tuesday, there was a small - scale fluctuation adjustment. On Wednesday, they attacked again and closed a medium - positive line. On Thursday, they rose and then fell slightly. On Friday, they fell sharply. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.18%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] Stock - Bond Seesaw - The Wind All - A Index hit a new high on Monday this week, then fell for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday. Although the Treasury bond futures showed independence on some single days, the overall stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [7] Changes in the Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Cash Bonds at Maturity - As of September 5, compared with August 29, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.11% [9] Manufacturing PMI in August - The official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. Large - scale enterprises continued to expand in the boom range, medium - sized enterprises' prosperity declined, and small - scale enterprises hovered at a low level. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased. The procurement volume index increased, indicating that corporate procurement activities accelerated [12] Production and Demand in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The production index in August was 50.8%, showing continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, indicating that market demand was still slightly weak. Industries such as medicine and computer communication electronics had rapid production and demand release, while industries such as textile and clothing and chemical raw materials had insufficient production and demand [14] New Export Orders and Import Index in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The new export order index in August was 47.2%, and the import index was 48.0%. The new export order index changed little compared with July. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, the two sides agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, and China's export growth in August might be acceptable [17] Price Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The purchase price index of major raw materials in August was 53.3%, and the ex - factory price index was 49.1%. The purchase price index of raw materials continued to be in the expansion range, and the expansion amplitude increased in August. The prices of some industries rose, while those of some industries were below the critical point. The average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in August was basically the same as that in July [19] Inventory Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The raw material inventory index in August was 48.0%, and the finished - product inventory index was 46.8%. The finished - product inventory index fell to a relatively low level again. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth of finished - product inventory was 2.3%. Manufacturing enterprises were cautious about increasing inventory [22] Business Expectation Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The employment index in August was 47.9%, hovering at a relatively low level. The business activity expectation index was 53.7%, showing a slight rebound in the expectation of future prosperity [24] Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August - The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, and the service industry business activity index was 50.5%. Some industries such as capital market services and transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity [26] Construction Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 40.6%, and the employment index was 43.6%. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%. Affected by weather conditions, the prosperity of the construction industry slowed down [29] Service Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 47.7%, and the employment index was 45.9%. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, showing a slight upward trend [31] South Korea's Exports in August - South Korea's exports increased by 1.3% year - on - year in August. The daily average export amount calculated by working days increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The semiconductor export amount reached a record high, and the automobile export also showed strong momentum [34] Agricultural Product Price Index - The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index on September 5 was 117.93, higher than that on August 31 but significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the price continued to rise but was still lower than last year [37] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline after hitting a closing high on July 25. It declined slightly in August and fluctuated narrowly this week, indicating limited short - term inflation pressure [39] Capital Interest Rates - After the end of the month, the capital interest rates fell to a low level this week. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was around 1.44%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was around 1.66%. The central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation on Friday, which fully offset the due amount [41] Market Logic and Trading Strategies - The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with economic downward pressure still obvious. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately. The strong rebound of the Wind All - A Index on Friday corresponded to the unilateral decline of Treasury bond futures. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [44][45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the bond market, with various government bond futures experiencing notable drops, particularly the 30-year and 10-year contracts [1][2] - As of the afternoon close, the yields on major government bonds have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.15 basis points to 1.765% and the 30-year yield rising by 1.55 basis points to 2.0275% [1][2] - Analysts attribute the bond market's decline to recent volatility in the equity and commodity markets, with a notable increase in risk appetite among investors leading to a shift in capital away from bonds [3][4] Group 2 - The recent bond market adjustment has seen an overall increase in yields by approximately 15 to 20 basis points, which is less severe than previous adjustments in earlier quarters [3] - The current market sentiment is influenced by expectations of potential favorable policies before and after the National Day, as well as the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies, including buying on dips and being mindful of profit-taking opportunities [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw continues, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is influenced by the stock market, risk preference adjustment, Fed rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. It oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short-term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - Due to the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are fluctuating. Traders are advised to focus on the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium-term adjustment pressure, short positions can use far-month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month-on-month increase and 0.00% year-on-year change, while China's PPI (monthly) has a -0.20% month-on-month and -3.60% year-on-year change [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 trillion yuan increase and a 0.24% growth rate; M2 year-on-year is 8.80%, up 0.50% with a 6.02% growth rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, up 0.10% with a 0.20% growth rate [9]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 98.29, up 0.13 with a 0.13% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1406, down 0.004 with a -0.05% change; SHIBOR 7-day is 1.44, up 0.00 with a 0.28% growth rate; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.51% growth rate; R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 with a -13.67% change; the 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.55, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate; the AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trends, price changes, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios, long-short positions ratios, spreads between government bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts [12][13][16]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Charts show the trading statistics of interbank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Charts present the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][35][36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][46][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][55]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [58][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [65][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are seeing a trend of capital rotation, with the market style possibly returning to a dumbbell structure, and investors are advised to adjust their portfolios accordingly [7] - Stock index options should continue with a hedging and defensive approach, and it is recommended to hold put options for defense [7][8] - The stock - bond seesaw continues to drive the release of long - term sentiment in treasury bond futures, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the subsequent trend may be oscillatory [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 15.81 points, - 10.67 points, - 51.45 points, and - 38.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 14.02 points, 1.32 points, 28.21 points, and 26.12 points [7] - The price difference between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 7.4 points, 0.0 points, 57.6 points, and 59.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.8 points, - 2.2 points, 7.6 points, and - 8.2 points [7] - The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 12436 lots, 8984 lots, 16332 lots, and 5496 lots [7] - The equity market declined across the board, with the Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index leading the decline. The technology sector may experience capital withdrawal, and investors are advised to switch to a dumbbell - style portfolio or reduce IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The equity market continued to weaken, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.25% in a single day. The trading volume of each option variety increased by 22.27%, the average position PCR indicator decreased by 12.68%, and the implied volatility of current - month contracts strengthened [7][8] - It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and position changes of T, TF, TS, and TL next - quarter contracts varied. The cross - period and cross - variety price differences also had corresponding changes, and the basis of each variety also changed [8] - The central bank announced a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, but considering the maturity of 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase this month, it is hard to say it is beneficial to the bond market [8][9] - Trend strategy: Oscillation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Look for long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Consider steepening the yield curve [9] 2. Economic Calendar - In the EU, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in July was 6.2%, the preliminary CPI year - on - year in August was 2.1%, the preliminary core CPI year - on - year was 2.3%, the PPI month - on - month in July was 0.4%, and the PPI year - on - year was 0.4% [10] - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, the ADP employment number in August was 134,617,000, and the new ADP employment number was 54,000 [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - end, intelligent, and green development of the industry [11] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Releasing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Sports Industry", focusing on expanding sports consumption scenarios [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - July 2025, the credit bond trend has generally shown an "M" shape. Short - term bonds are more resilient than long - term bonds. Compared with previous "stock - strong and bond - weak" market conditions, this credit bond adjustment has different characteristics, mainly due to fewer significant negative factors. In the current situation where the equity market trend is not clear, it is recommended to adopt a medium - short - duration credit sinking strategy, and then consider a credit bond duration - extension strategy when market warming signals are observed [3][13][16]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The credit bond trend has generally shown an "M" shape since mid - July - From July 21 to August 29, 2025, short - term bonds were more resilient than long - term bonds. One - year short - term urban investment bonds and bank ordinary bonds performed better, with yield adjustments of about 4 - 7BP and little widening of credit spreads. Five - year and above urban investment bonds and secondary perpetual bonds had more significant declines, and urban investment bonds performed poorly [3][14]. - The reasons for the credit bond adjustment were mainly the strong performance of the equity market suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The short - term bonds were more resilient because the popularity of "fixed income +" funds increased, and short - duration bonds could provide coupon income and reduce portfolio volatility [16]. 2. Differences between this credit bond adjustment and previous "stock - strong and bond - weak" market conditions - Different from previous adjustments, this credit bond adjustment had a smaller amplitude compared with interest - rate bonds and previous credit bond adjustments. The short - term yield increase was smaller, and short - term credit spreads were partially compressed, while they widened significantly in the past [3]. - The reasons for these differences were that in addition to the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the previous two rounds were also affected by factors such as redemption pressure and liquidity tightening, while there were no significant negative factors in this round [3]. 3. Outlook for credit bonds - Previous bond market adjustments caused by the "stock - bond seesaw" effect usually ended when the stock market entered a correction. Either credit bonds or interest - rate bonds might recover first. - Currently, with the equity market trend still unclear, it is recommended to focus on a medium - short - duration credit sinking strategy and pay attention to short - term credits with coupons. When market warming signals are observed, a credit bond duration - extension strategy can be considered [3][37].