Report Information - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, which may intensify the short - term fluctuations in the bond market and increase the difficulty of bond market operations. The Chinese economy shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be continuously strengthened [2][3][16] Chapter 1: Market Review - Key Point: The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average. Although the logic becomes less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, it remains the main logic in the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Key Point 1: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and keep liquidity abundant. It has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations this month, and there is a possibility of increasing the volume of MLF renewal [13] - Key Point 2: Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [15] - Key Point 3: The US has suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days since August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff [15] - Key Point 4: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [15] - Key Point 5: In July, M2 increased by about 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by about 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by about 11.8% year - on - year [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - Key Point: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2. Although the economy shows certain resilience, the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be strengthened [16] 3.2 Policy Aspect - Key Point: As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 9%, and the new social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - Key Point: The cost of funds has decreased since July 25. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low, but monetary easing remains an option if necessary [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - Key Point: The state will implement the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year. The special national debt has supported equipment renewal with 2000 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - Key Point: The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - end bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - end bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Key Point: The loose liquidity in the second half of the year may strengthen the stock market fluctuations and the short - term fluctuations in the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic and the loose liquidity logic make the bond market operations more difficult [29]

8月18日，上证指数上涨0.85%，收于3728.03点，盘中一度涨至3745.94点，创下2015年8月以来近十年的高点。 同时，深证成指涨1.73%，收于11835.57点；创业板指涨2.84%，收于2606.20点。深证成指、创业板指均突破2024年10月8日以来的高点。 "看着冲上3745点的大盘，老股民有些冲动。"一位投资者激动地表示。 从成交量来看，沪深两市全天成交额2.76万亿元，成交额再创2025年年内新高。此外，A股市值总和突破100万亿元，创历史新高，这也是A股历史上首次突 破100万亿元的大关。 8月18日，从整体盘面来看，市场热点集中在AI硬件和大金融方向，个股涨多跌少，全市场超4000只个股上涨。 从板块来看，券商、金融科技等大金融股一度冲高，指南针（300803.SZ）、同花顺(300033.SZ)双双续创历史新高。液冷服务器等AI硬件股持续爆发，强瑞 技术（301128.SZ）等20余股涨停。 稀土永磁概念股表现活跃，北方稀土(600111.SH)等涨停。板块方面，液冷服务器、影视、CPO（共封装光学）、稀土永磁等板块涨幅居前，煤炭、有色金 属、钢铁等板块跌幅居前。 近一段时间以 ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed weak performance last week (August 11-15, 2025), with yields generally rising across major bond types. The China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell by 0.33%, and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) decreased by 0.38% [14] - The yields of interest rate bonds across various maturities increased, while credit bonds also faced upward pressure on yields, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [14][15] - The liquidity in the market showed a slight contraction, highlighting the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds. The US Treasury market experienced narrow fluctuations with fluctuating rate cut expectations [15][16] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has continued to attract significant investment, with total assets surpassing 110 billion yuan, reaching 116.12 billion yuan as of August 15, 2025. Eight products exceeded 10 billion yuan in size, with the largest being the Harvest CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF at 20.03 billion yuan [18][19] - The overall market for bond ETFs has expanded significantly, with total assets reaching 538.2 billion yuan, nearly doubling from 179.99 billion yuan at the end of 2024. The number of products exceeding 10 billion yuan increased from 5 to 24 [18][19] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.93% since inception [3][21] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index remained unchanged last week, with a cumulative return of 4.12% since inception [4][21] - The Mid-to-Long-term Bond Fund Index fell by 0.16% last week, with a cumulative return of 6.30% since inception [5][21] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.04%, with a cumulative return of 3.32% since inception [6][21] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.51%, with a cumulative return of 3.62% since inception [7][21] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.44%, with a cumulative return of 5.17% since inception [8][21] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index increased by 1.29%, with a cumulative return of 17.35% since inception [9][21] - The QDII Bond Fund Index rose by 0.14%, with a cumulative return of 9.06% since inception [10][21] - The REITs Fund Index fell by 0.76%, with a cumulative return of 36.05% since inception [12][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from August 11 to August 15, 2025), the bond market performed weakly, with yields of major bond types generally rising. The ChinaBond - Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) dropped 0.33%, and the ChinaBond - Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00203) declined 0.38%. Yields of interest - rate bonds across all tenors generally increased, and those of credit bonds across all tenors and ratings were under upward pressure. Credit spreads showed a narrowing trend [2][10]. - The marginal convergence of the capital market was moderate, and the "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds was prominent. The US bond market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was inconsistent. The secondary market of REITs continued to adjust, and trading activity decreased [2]. - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF continued to attract funds. As of August 15, 2025, the total scale of the first - batch Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF products exceeded 110 billion yuan, reaching 116.124 billion yuan in total, with 8 products having a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market Review**: Last week, the bond market was weak. The ChinaBond - Composite Wealth Index and the ChinaBond - Composite Full - Price Index both declined. Yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally increased, and credit spreads narrowed. For example, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury yields changed by 1.06bp, - 1.47bp, 3.14bp, and 5.02bp respectively compared to the previous week [2][10]. - **Market Observation**: The capital market marginally converged moderately, and the "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds was obvious. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds led to a slight increase in capital interest rates. The US bond market fluctuated narrowly, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was inconsistent. The secondary market of REITs continued to adjust, and trading activity decreased [11][12][13]. 3.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF continued to attract funds. As of August 15, 2025, the total scale of the first - batch products exceeded 110 billion yuan, with 8 products having a scale over 10 billion yuan. The total scale of the bond ETF market in the whole market reached 538.2 billion yuan, nearly tripling compared to the end of 2024. Multiple fund companies are preparing to apply for the second - batch Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs [3][14][15]. 3.3. Performance Tracking of Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Indexes - **Money Enhancement Index**: It rose 0.02% last week and has accumulated a return of 3.93% since its establishment [4]. - **Short - Term Bond Fund Optimal Selection**: It had a flat return of 0.00% last week and has accumulated a return of 4.12% since its establishment [4]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Optimal Selection**: It dropped 0.16% last week and has accumulated a return of 6.30% since its establishment [4]. - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Optimal Selection**: It rose 0.04% last week and has accumulated a return of 3.32% since its establishment [4]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Optimal Selection**: It rose 0.51% last week and has accumulated a return of 3.62% since its establishment [4]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Optimal Selection**: It rose 0.44% last week and has accumulated a return of 5.17% since its establishment [4]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Optimal Selection**: It rose 1.29% last week and has accumulated a return of 17.35% since its establishment [5]. - **QDII Bond Fund Optimal Selection**: It rose 0.14% last week and has accumulated a return of 9.06% since its establishment [5]. - **REITs Fund Optimal Selection**: It dropped 0.76% last week and has accumulated a return of 36.05% since its establishment [5].

2025年8月15日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期 较2025年8月8日分别变动1.59BP、0.65BP、-0.68BP、4.94BP、4.94BP、5.74BP、8.75BP、10.5BP。 | | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)》 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 8月8日 | 8月15日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.1988 | 1.2237 | 2. 49 | | 0.08 | 1. 2783 | 1. 2987 | 2. 04 | | 0. 17 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 0 | | 0. 25 | 1. 2966 | 1.282 | -1.46 | | 0.5 | 1. 3356 | 1.3773 | 4.17 | | 0. 75 | 1. 3475 | 1. 3607 | 1.32 | | 1 | 1. 3506 | 1. 3665 | 1.59 | | 2 | 1. 3956 | 1. 4021 | 0. 65 | | 3 | 1.4159 | 1. 4091 | -0.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise this week, reaching new highs in both index points and average daily trading volume, with trading amounts exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days [2] - The Hang Seng Index also increased, but A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks overall [2] - The net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 35.876 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong assets [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a decline this week, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, leading to negative returns for pure bond funds [2] - The funding environment remained balanced but slightly loose, which typically supports bond performance [2] - Basic economic data showed weak credit data and continued deflation, which could provide some support for bonds despite the market's limited pricing of fundamental data [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices saw a significant pullback this week, influenced by cautious Federal Reserve attitudes and unexpected PPI data [3] - The overall commodity index rose by 0.52%, with agricultural and non-ferrous metals performing well, while precious metals declined [35] Stock Market Insights - The strong performance of the stock market is attributed to good recent profit effects, a strong overall atmosphere, and reduced external uncertainties due to the 90-day delay in US-China tariffs [6] - The market is believed to have substantial structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and potential for positive surprises [7] Industry Performance - In the industry performance, the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors showed significant gains, with increases of 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively [23] - Conversely, the banking, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [23] Economic Data - July economic data showed a 5.7% increase in industrial value added, with 35 out of 41 major industries reporting growth [31] - Social financing and M2 growth rates remained high, indicating continued liquidity in the economy [31] International Market - US stocks continued to rise, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increasing, which could present opportunities in US Treasury bonds [10] - The overall trend in global major economies is towards fiscal expansion, which may support fundamentals and risk appetite [10]

股债"跷跷板"又来了。 7月以来，A股走势回暖；另一边，债市却开始震荡。 面对股债的此消彼长，要不要把自己的钱搬来搬去？有没有什么简单的方法，能稳稳拿捏股债"跷跷板"？ 股债"跷跷板"——不建议单押哦 回看过去10年的股债代表指数，有六个时间段里，沪深300和中证全债的表现是相反的。 在大类资产轮动的规律下，不管是单押股市，还是"死磕"债券，都可能会轮流被市场"打败"。 2015年以来股债代表指数涨跌幅 | | 中证全债 | 沪深300 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2015 | 8.74% | 5.58% | | 2016 | 2.00% | -11.28% | | 2017 | -0.34% | 21.78% | | 2018 | 8.85% | -25.31% | | 2019 | 4.96% | 36.07% | | 2020 | 3.05% | 27.21% | | 2021 | 5.65% | -5.20% | | 2022 | 3.49% | -21.63% | | 2023 | 5.23% | -11.38% | | 2024 | 8.83% | 14.68% | 数据来源： ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the impact of the stock market rally on the bond market, suggesting that while the stock market's rise suppresses the bond market, the bond market's adjustment space is limited [6][26]. Group 2: Market Performance - This week, the bond market declined significantly, especially long - term bonds. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 5.7bps and 8.7bps to 1.75% and 2.05% respectively, reaching new highs since April this year. The short - end was relatively stable, with the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 1.6bps to 1.37%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield rising slightly by 2.0bps to 1.64% [1][9]. - The stock market has been strong recently, rising 1.7% this week, closing near 3700 points on the 15th, with significantly enlarged trading volume [9]. Group 3: Reasons for Bond Market Decline - The decline in the bond market is mainly due to the increased risk appetite brought about by the stock market rally. The market's expectation of the continuous rise of the stock market has increased, leading to significant selling by trading desks with long - duration and heavy - position bond holdings, resulting in a market pullback [1][9]. Group 4: Factors Unaffected by the Stock Market - **Funding situation**: The current loose funding situation is determined by weak financing demand and the central bank's maintenance of abundant liquidity. The "anti - arbitrage" measure aims to improve credit quality rather than change the loose funding situation. If credit data remains low, funding may become even looser [2][16]. - **Banks' bond - buying power**: Although the stock market rally causes a shift in household deposits, total bank deposits remain unchanged, so the stock market rise does not affect banks' asset - allocation ability. Banks, especially small and medium - sized banks, face a large asset shortage gap and need to increase bond investments. Assuming a 20% year - on - year growth rate by the end of the year, banks need to increase bond holdings by 8.3 trillion yuan in the next five months, which is significantly larger than the remaining government bond supply, indicating a continued asset shortage [3][17]. - **Interest rate spread and bond yields**: The stock market rally does not change loan interest rates. The short - end interest rate remains stable due to loose funding, while the long - end interest rate is affected by market sentiment in the short term. In the long run, long - end interest rates are more in line with loan interest rates. Assuming the interest rate spread between the general loan weighted average rate and R007 in Q3 remains the same as in Q2 at 200bps, the corresponding 10 - year treasury bond yield is around 1.8% [4][21]. Group 5: Relationship between the Stock and Bond Markets - The stock - bond seesaw effect does not always hold. During the 2014 - 2015 bull market, bond yields remained stable. The stock market's net financing in 2024 was only about 2% of the bond market's, so the stock market's impact on the bond market's trend is limited [5][10]. Group 6: Investment Suggestions - Although the stock market rally suppresses the bond market, the bond market's adjustment space is limited. The 10 - year treasury bond's adjustment upper limit is estimated to be between 1.75% - 1.8%. Investors should pay attention to stock market changes and fund duration. When the stock market stops rising unilaterally or the fund duration drops to a low level, it may be a signal to increase bond positions [6][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the bond market. It suggests that if there is a significant adjustment, one can use a small position to bet on an oversold rebound (not for buying at high prices) [3][41]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has experienced a steep decline this week despite weak fundamental data, and the problem lies in the bond itself, as it lacks the conditions to rise from both the asset and liability sides [3]. - The current trading main - line of the bond market may not be data, and single - month data may not confirm trends. The re - inflation trading brought by anti - involution may be in the first stage, with signs possibly appearing at the price level by the end of the year at the earliest [3][16]. - The view that the stock - bond seesaw causes the bond market to fall has logical flaws. The bond market's potential positives mainly rely on other assets and central bank actions, indicating insufficient internal positives [3][21]. - This year, the incremental funds of traditional bond market allocators such as banks and insurance in the bond market have significantly decreased, and it is hard to say that it is still an asset - shortage pattern [3][33]. - Mid - to long - term pure bond funds with shorter durations and earlier duration - reduction timings have achieved better returns this year [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Review (2025.8.11 - 8.15) - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by equities. Despite negative credit growth and economic data falling short of expectations, the bond market continued to be weak. By August 15, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 5.74BP to 1.75% compared to August 8, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 2.05%. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened [6]. 2. Why Isn't There Weak - Data Trading Despite Weak Data? - There are differences in the bond market from multiple perspectives: - Inflation: There is a divergence between the limited price - pulling effect of anti - involution and the view that inflation has bottomed out. The bulls focus on the limited improvement in PPI and the time lag in price transmission, while the bears focus on the phased stabilization of PPI and the super - seasonal improvement of CPI. In July, PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year and - 0.2% month - on - month, with the month - on - month decline narrowing for the first time since March. CPI increased 0.4% month - on - month [3][9]. - Financial data: There are divergences between social financing and credit, and between negative credit growth and M1 growth. The bulls note that the rise in social financing is mainly driven by government bond financing, and credit was unexpectedly weak in July, with a rare negative growth of 50 billion yuan. The bears point out that M1 growth continued to rise to 5.60% in July, indicating active capital activation [3][11]. - Economic data: There is a divergence between trends and single - month fluctuations in production, investment, and consumption growth. The bulls see a slowdown in July's economic data, while the bears believe that the annual economic target is likely to be achieved, and consumption will support the economy in the second half of the year [3][13]. - The bond market's trading main - line may not be data, and single - month data may not confirm trends. The re - inflation trading brought by anti - involution may be in the first stage, with signs possibly appearing at the price level by the end of the year at the earliest [3][16]. 3. Did the Bond Market Fall Due to Anti - Involution and Stock Market Suppression? - Many market views believe that anti - involution and the stock market's suppression led to the bond market adjustment. However, this week, the commodity performance was average, and there were cases where stocks fell but bonds did not rise, accelerating market doubts about bond assets themselves [18][20]. - Using high - volatility assets to judge the trend of low - volatility assets has logical flaws. The view that the stock - bond seesaw causes the bond market to fall implies that the bond market's opportunities mainly rely on other assets' weakness, indicating limited long - term opportunities [3][21]. 4. The Problem of Bonds Lies in Themselves - Asset side: Since July, policies related to anti - involution have increased market expectations of rising inflation. At the same time, the good performance of the equity market has driven up market risk appetite. From the perspective of insurance institutions, the cost - effectiveness of bond assets is insufficient. The average net investment yield of five major insurance companies has declined from 5.35% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2024 [23][26]. - Liability side: The allocation funds of insurance and banks are limited. Insurance has shifted to equity assets, and the incremental funds for bond allocation have not increased significantly compared to last year. Banks' liability sides have suffered serious losses due to factors such as deposit rate cuts and resident deposit migration. In July, the growth of wealth management scale was weak, with a monthly incremental of only 26 billion yuan, far lower than the seasonal level of 1.8 trillion yuan in the past four years [3][29]. - Asset - shortage pattern: The incremental funds of banks and insurance in the bond market have significantly decreased this year. Banks' bond investment increments are close to zero, and insurance's incremental funds for bond investment have dropped to 66.98 billion yuan [33]. 5. Should Bond Market Investment "Focus on Trading"? - Mid - to long - term pure bond funds with better performance have shorter durations, around 3 - 4 years, while the median duration of mid - performance funds is around 4 - 5 years [35]. - The top - performing bond funds reduced their durations earlier. As of August 15, the median duration of mid - to long - term pure bond funds generally increased compared to the beginning of the year, but the duration of the bottom 20% of funds changed little. The median duration of top - performing funds reached its maximum in late April, and the duration reduction was more significant compared to other funds [35]. - Technically, the long - end varieties of Treasury bond futures have shown oversold signals. Attention can be paid to short - term oversold trading opportunities [37].