目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 核心观点 宏观：6月7日讯，美联储哈克表示，在美国金融体系面临日益增长的挑战之际，赤字必须受到控制，对当前政府财政状况"非常担忧"。哈 克还表示："在关键数据方面，我们正变得越来越盲目。我们担忧经济数据的质量正在下降。不确定性使得预测货币政策前景变得非常困难 。但在不确定性之中，今年晚些时候美联储仍有可能降息。 基本面：上周锌价延续震荡整理走势，宏观方面相对平淡，进入6月份，传统淡季趋近，关注社库拐点。从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿 周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至 冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求 一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也 难有增量预期 ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail giants, under pressure from tariffs, initially sought to have Chinese suppliers bear the cost of tariffs but later agreed to have U.S. parties cover the costs after discussions with Chinese authorities [1] - Recently, U.S. retailers have attempted to shift the burden of shipping costs onto Chinese suppliers, exacerbated by a surge in shipping prices due to increased imports during the tariff suspension period [1][4] - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Nike, are negotiating with Chinese suppliers to share up to 66% of the U.S. tariff costs, which were previously absorbed by U.S. buyers [2] Group 2 - Shipping costs have skyrocketed, with rates for containers to the U.S. West Coast reaching $6,000 to $7,000, nearly double the rates from late May [4] - The cost of shipping from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the U.S. West Coast has increased to $3,000, three times the price from April, raising concerns among exporters about their ability to absorb these costs [4] - The shipping industry is facing capacity shortages due to a surge in demand, with significant delays expected in restoring normal shipping operations [4][5] Group 3 - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is taking measures to handle the increased export orders, anticipating a recovery in shipping volumes to the U.S. following the tariff reductions [5] - The port plans to enhance service levels and improve operational efficiency to accommodate the expected rise in shipping demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Rio Tinto Group and China Baowu Steel Group have officially launched the West Pilbara Iron Ore Project in Australia, which is expected to benefit both companies and the local economy [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The West Pilbara Iron Ore Project is located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, with a designed annual production capacity of 25 million tons [1]. - The total investment for the project is approximately $2 billion, with Rio Tinto holding a 54% stake and Baowu holding 46% [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The project is expected to enhance the economic development of the Pilbara region and contribute to the economy of Western Australia through royalties and taxes [1]. - The West Pilbara Iron Ore Project is seen as a critical component for the long-term operation of the Paraburdoo mining center, which is one of Rio Tinto's oldest mining sites [3]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - Baowu Steel is Rio Tinto's largest customer, and the project represents a strategic partnership between the two industry leaders, showcasing the cooperation between China and Australia [3]. - The project is viewed as a model for economic cooperation between the two countries, with commitments to sustainable development and innovation [3]. Group 4: Market Context - Australia exports over 900 million tons of iron ore annually from the Pilbara region, primarily to China, amidst increasing uncertainties in the steel industry due to rising tariffs [1][4]. - Current iron ore prices are around $95 per ton, with production costs for Australian companies estimated at $33 per ton for 2024 [4].

欧洲央行于北京时间6月5日晚间公布利率决议，下调三大关键利率25个基点。 多家机构认为， 随着欧元区通胀率回落至2%目标下方且经济复苏乏力，本次降息符合预期。 欧央行在2024年6月开始第一次降息，当前已经将存款便利利率从4%降至2%。 此前，高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、野村和 Berenberg 等机构均表示，欧央行此次会将存 款利率下调 25 个基点至 2% 。 // 欧央行可能加大货币宽松力度 // 欧洲央行管委Simkus此前表示，对于欧洲央行的利率，没有一个核心设想。欧洲央行6月降息是必要 的，6月之后有可能再次降息。不清楚6月后的降息是在7月还是9月。 高盛预计，欧洲央行将在9月再降息25个基点，使2025年最终利率降至1.5%。 桑坦德银行的 Antonio Villarroya同样 认为，欧洲央行可能会在 9 月再次降息 25 个基点， 如果"对等关税"暂缓期结束后，美国启动加征额外关税，欧洲央行可能会加大宽松力度。 华创证券指出，德国失业率反超意大利，欧元区经济增长面临下行风险，欧洲央行可能加大货币宽松力 度。 欧元区制造业 PMI 5 月终值 49.4 仍处收缩区间。欧元区 5 月综合 P ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core Views - For成材, it is expected to have an oscillatory consolidation with a downward trend in the price center, running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4] 3) Summary According to Related Content For成材 - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will have production disruptions, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - **Market Performance**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase. The price of成材 continued to decline, hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Outlook**: It will run in an oscillatory consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [3] For Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment has eased. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by about 258 yuan/ton last week to about 17,200 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase. The profit of aluminum plants has been compressed. The average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY. As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [3] - **Industry Index**: The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range, a 1.8 - percentage - point MoM decrease and an 8.7% YoY increase [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, macro policy changes, macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4] - **Tariff Policy**: The US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% on June 4 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the overnight rate at 2.75%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate adjustments amid increasing uncertainty in the economic landscape [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Economists and markets anticipate that the Bank of Canada, led by Governor Macklem, will keep the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% [1] - The central bank may indicate readiness to act swiftly if economic data worsens or if they gain sufficient insight into the developments of trade disputes [1] - **Economic Conditions** - The lack of clarity in the global trade situation may compel the Bank of Canada to remain inactive for the time being [1] - Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities, suggests that the central bank is unlikely to feel more certain about the global trade outlook for the remainder of the year [1] - The domestic economy is described as resilient enough, allowing the central bank the flexibility to wait until July before considering a rate cut [1]

与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特上周日表示，特朗普预计将解决包括关键矿产争端在内的贸易问题。 周一欧盘，现货黄金日内大涨近2.00%，重回3350美元关口。WTI原油日内大涨3%，布伦特原油涨 2.9%。 特朗普在上周五表示，他计划将进口钢铁和铝的关税从25%提高到50%，这促使欧盟委员会警告欧洲已 准备好进行报复。 黄金被认为是地缘政治和经济不确定时期的一种避险资产，并且倾向于在低利率环境中表现良好。 KCM贸易首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒（Tim Waterer）表示："随着贸易和地缘政治担忧再次浮出水 面，本周初看到黄金价格上涨不足为奇。" 在伊斯坦布尔举行第二轮和谈之前，乌克兰和俄罗斯冲突升级，发生了一波袭击，其中包括乌克兰在冲 突中最激进的一次打击和俄罗斯的夜间无人机袭击。 此外，一些美国参议员正在推动对俄罗斯实施更严厉的制裁，提议对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收500% 的关税。共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）和民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔（Richard Blumenthal）希望在六月中旬的G7峰会前实施制裁。 尽管美国总统特朗普似乎对俄罗斯总统普京越来越不满，但他迄今仍不愿施 ...

Group 1 - India's Ministry of Finance announced a 12% tariff increase on steel imports from China, marking a significant policy shift in the context of global trade disputes [1][3] - China has become India's second-largest source of steel imports, with import volumes reaching a nine-year high in both 2024 and 2025 [1] - India's steel production capacity gap is reported to be 120 million tons, with a current production target of 300 million tons, but only achieving 180 million tons [3] Group 2 - The Indian government claims the tariff is aimed at curbing Chinese dumping, despite the significant production capacity shortfall [3] - The Indian steel industry is facing pressure as domestic steel prices have dropped by approximately 15%, impacting small and medium-sized steel manufacturers [3] - Analysts suggest that India's reliance on Chinese imports for coking coal while exporting iron ore to China creates a policy contradiction that may affect long-term outcomes [3] Group 3 - Predictions indicate that the tariff could lead to increased costs for infrastructure projects in India [5] - Chinese companies have already begun relocating production to countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to avoid tariffs, with Baosteel keeping rough processing domestic while moving refining operations abroad [5] - China's special steel export prices are three times higher than those of India, and recent advancements in corrosion-resistant deep-sea steel by Ansteel may mitigate the actual impact of tariffs [5] Group 4 - China's control over coking coal exports to India presents a potential leverage point, as tightening exports could significantly impact Indian steel production [7] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has stated it will take necessary measures to protect the rights of its enterprises, indicating confidence in its position [7] - China's steel exports cover 103 countries, with India accounting for only 6%, suggesting a dynamic balance in global steel trade driven by interdependence [7][9]

欧盟委员会声明称，美政府这一决定进一步给全球经济增添了不确定性，提高关税也破坏了正在进行的 通过谈判解决问题的努力。声明强调，欧盟委员会目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最终磋商。如果未能达 成双方均可接受的解决方案，欧盟现有措施和附加措施将于7月14日自动生效，或根据需要提前生效。 欧盟准备采取反制措施。 当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至50%。随后，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日(周三)起生效。 当地时间5月31日，欧盟委员会在一份声明中对美国宣布提高进口钢铝关税表示遗憾，并表示欧盟准备 采取反制措施。 欧盟：准备采取反制措施 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响， 从下周起，美国进口钢铁关税将从25%提高至50%。" 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12日， 特朗普对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 欧盟：欧美贸易谈判前景面临不确定性 欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德.朗格表示，欧盟始终主张通 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国银行预计到今年年底或 2026 年初，黄金价格将达到每盎司 4000 美元，白银价格将达到每盎司 40 美元。去年10月，该行 金价将达到3000美元，目前已经超过这一水平。美银分析师表示，贸易引发的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑金属价格，而对美国政府财政状况日益 加剧的担忧可能会推动金属价格进一步上涨。 至于白银，Branch称其为"不错的投资选择之一"。白银具有双重属性，即是贵金属，也是工业金属。Branch称："白银的贵金属属性一直在推高其价 格，而工业属性则处于次要地位，但这种情况最终会改变。当然，关税意味着贸易环境趋弱，去年第四季度到今年第一季度期间，投资者因预期关 税而抢先大量买入，当时贸易形势相当乐观。如今关税已实施，接下来的几个月工业活动会放缓，但最终工业活动会再度活跃起来。" 2024 年工业对白银的需求创下纪录，致使白银市场连续第四年出现结构性赤字。尽管关税担忧和供应链中断带来了一些不利因素，但预计 2025 年 工业需求仍将保持强劲。Branch指出，从长期来看，白银价格通常与黄金价格走势一致，但全球经济走势的不确定性正在形成阻力。 美银分析师们表示："迄今为止，贸易 ...