Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the interdependence of the U.S. and Canadian electricity markets, particularly in light of recent trade tensions and proposed tariffs, highlighting the potential impacts on energy infrastructure and supply dynamics [1][12]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Electricity Interdependence - Canadian electricity has been crucial in meeting the demand in the U.S., especially in the Northeast, with peak electricity transfers from Hydro-Québec reaching 2,238 megawatts and from Ontario reaching 2,311 megawatts [3]. - The interconnection between the U.S. and Canadian electricity systems is significant, with exceptions occurring only during specific maintenance periods or demand surges [3]. - The Northeast U.S. shows a strong reliance on Canadian electricity, with ISO-NE and NYISO's average dependency reaching approximately 18% and 12% respectively in 2023, peaking at 21% and 17% [5]. Group 2: Future Infrastructure Developments - Despite the heavy reliance on Canadian electricity, the Northeast U.S. is not planning to reduce this dependency, as evidenced by the construction of four new transmission lines that will increase capacity by at least 55% [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties may affect energy infrastructure projects, raising questions about the impact of potential tariffs on these developments [12].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Mercedes-Benz Group, Ola Kaellenius, emphasizes the need for a fair solution to the EU-China tariff dispute, advocating for a competitive environment for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe [1][2] Group 1: EU-China Trade Relations - Kaellenius calls for a win-win approach and warns against using tariffs as a blunt tool, suggesting that a fair competition discussion is reasonable [2] - He previously indicated that the EU should encourage Chinese automakers to establish more factories in Europe as part of a deal to eliminate punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - The EU's decision to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has faced criticism, with a significant number of member states abstaining from the vote, reflecting unease about escalating trade tensions with China [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Details - The European Commission announced a five-year anti-subsidy tax on Chinese electric vehicles, with specific rates for various manufacturers: BYD at 17.0%, Geely at 18.8%, and SAIC at 35.3% [5][6] - Other cooperating companies face a 20.7% tariff, while Tesla, after a separate review, will incur a 7.8% tax rate [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Mercedes-Benz has experienced a decline in sales in China, attributed to intense competition from local rivals [7] - The company plans to focus on the Chinese market for its next generation of electric vehicles starting in 2025, highlighting the importance of mastering electric propulsion technology [7]

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3009，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 中美关税争端的爆发让美国农产业很受伤。 第一财经记者了解到，作为美国重要的农产品出口市场之一，特别是在大豆、乳清等农产品上中国一 直是美国的头号客户。2024年中国进口的大豆占到美国大豆出口约50%份额，乳清占出口总量的 40%。而随着中美关税争端的爆发，高企的关税成本让原本价格更有优势的美国农产品正在逐步失去 中国市场。 饲料乳清市场份额将被抢食 "短期内美国乳清已经在涨价，如果长期维持高关税，可能后续美国乳清生意就没法做了。"在国内经 营乳原料进口贸易的北京润发商贸销售人员告诉第一财经记者。 乳清是脱胎乳经提取酪蛋白以制造干酪或干酪素后留下的溶液，一般而言，中低蛋白乳清多用于饲料 等领域，高蛋白乳清和脱盐乳清等多用于营养品和婴幼儿配方奶粉。由于国内消费者没有吃奶酪的习 惯，因此原制奶酪生产规模较小，国内使用的乳清粉主要依赖于进口，美国也是主要的来源国之一。 海关数据显示，2025年1-2月中国共进口乳清类11.7万吨，同比增加35.4%；进口额1.3亿美元，同比 增加34.5%，其中来自美国的乳清占比达41.9%。2 ...

马耳他工商会发言人蕾切尔·邦迪·阿塔尔德日前接受新华社记者专访时表示，美国政府对欧盟商品加征 关税极有可能导致"双输"局面，促使包括马耳他在内的国家加速拓展与全球其他贸易伙伴合作。 近期，美国政府在全球范围内挥舞"关税大棒"，宣布对包括欧盟在内的所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关 税"，而且关税政策朝令夕改。此举不仅导致全球金融市场震荡，更引发市场对美国经济衰退和全球经 济形势恶化的担忧。欧盟委员会发布公报说，美国政府加征关税措施缺乏正当依据，不仅损害欧美双方 经济利益，也给全球经济稳定带来不利影响。 阿塔尔德认为，美国政府关税政策不仅会推高欧美双方贸易成本和抑制需求，还将对全球商业环境持续 造成重压，严重打击企业信心。 谈及马耳他所面临的影响，阿塔尔德表示，尽管马耳他与美国之间的直接贸易额不大，但作为欧盟成员 国，其经济高度依赖与欧盟主要国家的经贸联系，因此欧美之间的贸易争端将通过欧洲经济波动间接影 响马耳他。 新华社瓦莱塔4月22日电 专访｜美加征关税将促使马耳他在内国家加速与他国合作——访马耳他工商 会发言人阿塔尔德 新华社记者陈文仙 根据马耳他国家统计局近日公布的数据，今年前两个月，马耳他与美国的商品贸易额 ...

离岸市场上，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率同样升破7.29关口，盘中最高至7.2832，较前一交易日升值超200点。 4月21日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至9.2820，较前一交易日收盘价升值219点，16时30分人民币对美元即期汇率收盘报7.2880，较上一交 易日上涨159个基点，创4月3日以来的日间收盘新高。 4月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数遭遇大跌。美元指数开盘走低并跌破99关口，4月21日下午，进一步走低跌破98关口，为2022年3月 以来首次，日内跌幅超1.2%。欧元、日元走强，截至17时，欧元、日元对美元日内涨幅超过1.4%和1.1%。 随着美元指数日内接连跌破99、98关口，包括人民币在内的非美货币集体走强。 中泰证券在研报中指出，短期来看，美国政府违背世界贸易组织规则，引发贸易伙伴的反制，不断加剧的贸易争端冲击了美元信用体系。在特朗 普关税大棒的阴霾下，市场对全球经济陷入衰退的担忧情绪滋长，美元作为长期避险资产的光环被削弱，国际投资者纷纷抛售美元资产，使得美 元贬值，而美债收益率则因投资者对美债信心下降而上升。 中金公司研究部外汇组在研报中指出，从近几周的表现 ...

Group 1 - Several multinational companies have issued warnings about the potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on their performance [1] - French luxury brand Hermès announced it will increase sales prices across all business lines in the U.S. by an additional 6%-7% starting May 1 to offset the impact of new tariffs [1] - Hermès reported that its Q1 sales for fiscal year 2025 were slightly below market expectations, indicating rare weakness [1] - LVMH reported a 3% year-on-year decline in sales for Q1, falling short of analysts' expected 2% growth [1] - LVMH's CFO cited U.S. tariff policies and trade tensions as significant factors contributing to the sales decline [1] - LVMH's CEO warned that trade tensions could severely damage European industries [1] - Johnson & Johnson disclosed an expected profit loss of $400 million in 2026 due to announced tariffs on goods and raw materials, with the medical technology sector being the most affected [1] Group 2 - U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa stated that approximately 70% of its aluminum produced in Canada is sold to the U.S. [2] - Alcoa reported a loss of about $20 million in Q1 due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, with expected losses of $90 million in Q2 [2]

智通财经APP获悉，欧盟正在制定一项提案，拟对部分输美商品实施出口限制，以此作为对美国总统特朗普上月发起的全面贸易战的潜在报复手段。 知情人士透露，欧盟将把此类限制措施作为威慑工具，仅在与美国的谈判未能取得满意结果时才会启用。此前，美国已对价值约3800亿欧元的欧盟商品加征 新关税。 若欧盟实施报复，可能引发华盛顿的强力回应，意味着不断升级的贸易争端将进一步激化。上个月，在加拿大安大略省宣布计划对输美电力加征附加费后， 特朗普威胁要对加拿大金属征收50%关税。 知情人士表示，出口限制是欧盟正在考虑的若干选项之一，其他可能措施包括制定更多关税清单以及限制美国企业的公共采购准入。 特朗普宣称其全球关税攻势旨在促使制造业岗位回流美国，并通过增加财政收入为减税政策延期提供资金。欧盟贸易主管马洛斯·塞夫科维奇本周一在华盛 顿会晤美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔。 据媒体早前报道，塞夫科维奇在会后仍难窥美方立场全貌，对美方谈判目标亦感困惑。 欧盟已着手制定预案，若90天谈判期结束仍无法达成协议，将采取更多反制措施。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩暗示，另一选项是瞄准美国科技公司 的数字广告收入。 有知 ...

超三成销量阻 断，如何应对 129%出口关 税？中国罗非鱼 面临关键大考_ 南方+_南方plus 中国罗非鱼即将 面临美国市场 129%关税？ 订单停止，鱼价 大跌 "上周开始，我 们这情况明显恶 化了，这种关税 的情况，采购商 也不敢下 单。"海南文昌 某罗非鱼资深人 士告诉记者，目 前，加工厂虽然 开出报价，但收 购量很有限，对 下一步的形势变 化，也只能继续 观望。美国当地 时间4月2日，总 统特朗普宣布征 收"对等关税"措 施，其中对中国 再加征34%关 税，中国罗非鱼 输美关税累计已 达到79%。 近期，美国对中 国启动多轮加征 关税，从特朗普 上任至今，叠加 其第一个任期政 策，中国罗非鱼 输美关税已达到 79%。日前，特 朗普又在其社交 平台发文称，如 果中国不在4月8 日撤回对美反制 关税，美国将从 4月9日起，对所 有中国商品再加 征50%关税。综 合前期累计关税 税率，此举意味 着中国罗非鱼出 口美国，将面临 129%关税。 波士顿水产展 上，中国赴美参 展水产企业由 2024年的250家 锐减至180多 家。国际采购商 对贸易争端表示 深切担忧，如果 情况持续下去， 中国水产品有可 能失 ...

除了供应面的变化和地缘局势波动外，美国关税政策影响也令市场对石油需求前景更加悲观。根据特朗普的最 新表态，美国政府将对全球开始征收"对等关税"，并针对特定行业征收额外关税。国际货币基金组织总裁格奥 尔基耶娃称，美国政府关税政策的不确定性给全球经济活动带来风险，可能拖累全球经济增长。 展望后市，隆众资讯分析师认为，4月美国将公布新的加征关税政策，市场担忧贸易争端可能再次来袭，将拖 累全球经济和需求。此外，"欧佩克+"计划在4—5月坚持小幅增产策略，美元表现也相对强势，均对原油市场 带来利空压力。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油调价下调的概率较大。 广州金控期货认为，由于"欧佩克+"产油国存在补偿性减产、遭受美国制裁等情况，使得复产规模下调，市场 对年内原油过剩压力的担忧有所减轻，国际原油价格在短期内出现反弹。然而，非"欧佩克+"产油国（如美国 和巴西等）产出增加，将弥补"欧佩克+"产油国复产和出口下降带来的缺口，且全球原油需求继续疲软，原油 市场供应过剩格局未变，油价很可能短期反弹后再度下跌。 编辑：叶舒筠 国家发展改革委4月2日发布通知称，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年4月2日24时起，国内汽、柴 油价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The rapeseed meal market will follow the trend of soybean meal. The palm oil market will have short - term high - level oscillations. The cotton market will stop falling and consolidate. The jujube market will operate weakly. The pig market will have weak oscillations [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract closed at 2851 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The national average spot price was 3163.43 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The average national soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of different contracts also changed [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazilian soybean production is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended. The announced US soybean planting area decreased, but the ending inventory was higher than expected. The US will impose a 10% tariff on China in April, and China will impose a 10% tariff on US soybeans. In April, domestic soybean imports will increase, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons from April to June [1][3]. - **Outlook**: It will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. Near - month contracts need to pay attention to the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased this week, and the pressure marginally improved [1][5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, which was negative for Canadian rapeseed prices. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but rapeseed was not included, and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal, so the actual positive impact is limited [1][5]. - **Outlook**: It will follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term due to the lack of new fundamental guidance [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 9104 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The national average price was 9605 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment showed changes in the proportion of bullish, bearish, and neutral views [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Ramadan festival in March led to a decline in international import demand. Southeast Asian palm oil production began to recover in March. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff will be 124 US dollars/ton. The US plans to increase the biodiesel blending volume in 2026 and later, with the minimum increase exceeding 40% compared to 2025 [1][6][7]. - **Outlook**: It will have short - term high - level oscillations. The price is expected to change from strong to weak, and the current price increase is regarded as a rebound under event influence [1][6][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2505 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The domestic spot price increased slightly. The international and domestic cotton inventories,开机 rates, and other indicators showed certain changes [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: The USDA slightly lowered the US cotton planting intention, which provided limited support. Domestically, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, with slow - growing orders, low开机 rates, and negative corporate profits. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: It will stop falling and consolidate in the short term, with the market waiting for macro data. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to relevant industrial policies [11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main jujube contract CJ2505 closed at 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [12][13]. - **Influencing Factors**: The downstream market entered the off - season, with more arrivals in the sales area. Seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, squeezing the jujube market [13][14]. - **Outlook**: It will operate weakly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the new production season [14]. Pig - **Market Situation**: The main pig contract Lh2505 closed at 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The domestic pig spot price increased slightly. The inventory,出栏 volume,开工 rate, and profit indicators showed certain changes [15][16]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure in the pig market continued to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The demand was still weak, and the second - fattening enthusiasm decreased [16][17]. - **Outlook**: It will have weak oscillations. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure, and attention should be paid to the data of piglets for potential arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [17].