"在周末宣布关税休战后，我们看到股市大幅上涨，至少在短期内，这已经消除了近期推动黄金创下新 高的部分避险焦点，"盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森表示，"如果跌破3200美元的水平，那么我 们可能会很快测试3165美元。" 全球股市在中美贸易紧张局势缓解的背景下上涨，同时也受到相对温和的美国通胀数据的支持。 据外媒报道，周三，黄金价格下跌，因中美贸易紧张局势缓解，缓解了潜在全球衰退的担忧，提升了投 资者的风险偏好，同时削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金下跌0.4%，报每盎司3233.69美元。上个月，在贸易局势担忧加剧的情况下，黄金价格曾创下 3500.05美元的历史新高。美国黄金期货下跌0.3%，报3238.10美元。 交易员现正等待周四公布的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）数据，以获取有关美联储利率路径的线索，此 前低于预期的4月消费者价格指数数据引发了市场对今年晚些时候可能降息的猜测。 市场预计美联储今年将降息53个基点，最早从9月开始。 尽管黄金传统上被视为对冲通胀的工具，但在低利率环境下，黄金也往往会表现强劲，因为它不产生利 息。 现货白银下跌0.2%，报每盎司32.83美元，铂金上涨0.8%，报995 ...

周一（5月12日）亚洲市场刚开盘，现货黄金就低开低走，因为上周末中美在瑞士日内瓦开了个高层会谈，谈得挺不错，有了实质 性进展。这一下子就把市场的冒险情绪给提起来了，大家都不怎么想买黄金来避险了。再加上普京说15号要在土耳其恢复俄乌直接 谈判，印巴也停火了，这些消息都让黄金的多头信心受挫。2025年5月12日，在瑞士日内瓦举行的首轮高层中美贸易谈判中，双方 联合声明发布后，金融市场反应强烈，美元指数、现货黄金和布伦特原油都出现了大幅波动。 今日黄金低开低走，接近前期低点附近止跌反弹。四小时级别图显示，自3500至3440区域已构筑下跌趋势通道，当前下方支撑位在 3164附近。需注意该支撑位生效的前提是金价有效跌破3200前低点。通道中轨位于早盘高点3292位置，目前金价运行于通道中下轨 之间，因此3292可作为中期多空分水岭参考。在此关键位下方，翁富豪建议整体思路仍以看空为主。 1.黄金建议反弹3252-3258区域做空，止损在3265，目标看3240-3230 . 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪 老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责 ...

周三（5月7日）因美联储按兵不动，以及鲍威尔重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动，美元指数走强，最终收涨0.64%，报99.90。基准的10年期美债收益率收报 4.274%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.787%。因市场对贸易谈判持乐观态度，加上美元走强，现货黄金日内大跌逾60美元，最终收跌 1.93%，报3364.24美元/盎司。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上明确表示，美联储并不急于降息。当前经济面临极大的不确定性，尤其是在美国政府正与多国就关税问题展开谈判 的背景下。鲍威尔多次强调，目前判断这些关税将对经济产生何种影响还为时过早。对于未来是否还会进一步降息的问题，鲍威尔没有给出明确答案。他表 示，他可以设想以下情形：今年内美联储可能会降息，但也有可能不会采取这一举措。在地缘政治持续不稳定、贸易环境不确定以及美国今年晚些时候降息 预期的背景下，黄金的避险地位仍得到良好支撑。 综合来看，金价周初涨幅太大，所以周三早间就迎来了一波回调，但是仍然没有改变多头走势，日内还是震荡上行来看待，操作上可以参考3350-3360区域 布局多单，看至3430-3440区域。 因伊朗与美国达成核协议的希望缓解了市场对 ...

此外，本周美联储将公布利率决议。据每日经济新闻，当地时间5月7日（北京时间5月8日凌晨2： 00），美联储将公布最新利率决议，投资者希望美联储能够尽快降息。不过，目前市场普遍预计美联储 将在此次会议上维持利率不变，降息或出现在6月。 5月6日，国际金价持续走高，COMEX黄金涨逾2%至3390美元/盎司，现货黄金升至3380美元/盎司上 方。 受此拉动，黄金相关ETF纷纷走高，截至10:16，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨2.32%；黄金股ETF （159562）涨4.01%，其持仓股四川黄金、华钰矿业、晓程科技、周大福等股纷纷走强。 消息面上，据新华社，美国商务部4月30日公布数据显示，2025年第一季度，美国国内生产总值 （GDP）环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。这是2022年以来美国经济的最差季度表现。 华福证券表示，短期而言，美"对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价，整体呈现 易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交 易的核心，长期配置价值不改。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 ended a nine-day rally, influenced by Trump's new tariff policy targeting Hollywood, imposing a 100% tariff on overseas film productions, causing stock prices of companies like Amazon and Netflix to drop [3] - Skechers, a "delisting concept stock," surged 24% due to a $9.4 billion privatization offer from 3G Capital, representing a 28% premium [3] - Alibaba's stock rose by 0.64%, reflecting market confidence in its "cloud intelligence" transformation, while TSMC fell by 1.61% due to Intel's announcement of risk trial production for its 1.4nm process, directly challenging TSMC's 2nm technology [3] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, with Saudi Arabia focusing on "price for volume," leading to a 2% drop in WTI crude oil prices, and Goldman Sachs lowering its oil price forecast to $56 for the year [4] - Asian demand remains weak, with China's April import growth primarily driven by stockpiling rather than real demand, potentially pressuring U.S. shale oil production due to higher costs [4] - The decline in oil prices may present short-term opportunities for the aviation and logistics sectors in the A-share market [4] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices surged over 3%, reaching $3,340 per ounce, driven by Trump's tariff policy, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and a weakening dollar with rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $3,700 by year-end, with extreme scenarios suggesting $4,500 [4] - Despite the rapid increase, there may be short-term corrections, but long-term factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold accumulation remain supportive [4] Group 4: European Stock Market - The FTSE 100 in the UK has risen for 15 consecutive days, marking its longest streak since 2021, attributed to low valuations and early interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [5] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14, less than half that of U.S. stocks, with improving corporate earnings expectations [5] - Increased investments in renewable energy and defense sectors in Europe may become a key theme for the coming years, suggesting potential opportunities in infrastructure and energy transition-related ETFs [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by "risk aversion" and "divergence," with U.S. stock adjustments possibly ongoing, and Chinese concept stocks facing policy risks [6] - Short-term pressure on oil prices exists, but there are long-term speculative opportunities, while gold and European stocks serve as safe havens for medium to long-term investments [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in India-Pakistan, Iran-US relations, and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are driving a return to safe-haven assets like gold, which saw a significant increase of $100 recently [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the release of gold reserve data by the central bank are highlighted as key events to watch this week [1] Group 2 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, indicating a correlation between the two precious metals [3] - The US dollar index faced resistance at the 100 mark, with a potential upward breakout that could lead to a bullish trend [3] - The US stock market is anticipated to remain bearish in the medium term, despite a recent recovery from a significant drop [3] Group 3 - The S&P futures are facing resistance at the 5700 level, with potential for a downward correction if this resistance is not broken [5] - Crude oil prices experienced a decline due to news of increased production from oil-producing countries, followed by a slight rebound [5] - The formation of a double bottom pattern in crude oil prices is being monitored, with potential upward movement if confirmed [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold exhibits a unique price fluctuation mechanism influenced by multiple factors, including currency pricing systems, macroeconomic risks, market structure evolution, supply-demand elasticity, and technical reinforcement mechanisms. Group 1: Currency Pricing System Linkage - The international gold price is negatively correlated with the US dollar index, where a 1% increase in the dollar index raises gold purchasing costs, suppressing investment demand [1]. - Major central banks' balance sheet expansions directly elevate gold price benchmarks, with each additional $1 trillion in quantitative easing raising gold valuations by 8%-12% [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Risk Matrix - The forward price of gold is determined by the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations, with gold prices reaching a historical peak of $2075 per ounce when the real yield on US Treasuries fell below -1% [3]. - A 10-point increase in the global geopolitical risk index results in a 3.2% increase in average monthly gold holdings, evidenced by events like the Crimea crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 3: Market Structure Evolution - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases for 13 consecutive years, with global official reserves rising by 1136 tons in 2022, accounting for 23% of annual supply [5]. - An increase of 100,000 open contracts in COMEX gold futures raises price volatility by 1.8 basis points, with significant spikes in implied volatility during events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident [6]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Elasticity - The average extraction cost of the top ten gold mines has risen to $1250 per ounce, with newly discovered reserves declining by 15% year-on-year [7]. - India and China account for 55% of global physical gold demand, with a 40% surge in imports during festive seasons, despite India's recent increase in import tax to 15% [8]. Group 5: Technical Reinforcement Mechanisms - Algorithmic trading strategies hold over 30 million ounces of gold, with momentum factors contributing over 35% to price volatility, triggering significant buy orders upon breaking key price levels [9]. - A 50% year-on-year increase in Google searches for "gold investment" correlates with a 68% probability of gold price increases in the following 30 days [10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have raised concerns among investors, highlighting the risks associated with gold as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [3][4]. Market Dynamics - An investor recently lost 470,000 yuan after purchasing gold at 829 yuan per gram, only to sell the next day as prices fell [3]. - The current spot gold price has dropped by 2%, falling below 3,230 USD per ounce, with gold jewelry prices also declining to 995 yuan per gram [3]. - Three months ago, the World Gold Council reported a 38% increase in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, but the situation has reversed with the dollar index rising above 100 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields approaching 4.3% [3][4]. Institutional Responses - Banks have issued risk warnings and increased fees for gold accumulation, indicating concerns about market volatility and the potential inability of retail investors to withstand price fluctuations [4]. - The increase in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation from 100 yuan to 500 yuan reflects institutional caution in the current market environment [4]. Long-term Outlook - Gold is fundamentally viewed as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset, but short-term price movements are heavily influenced by market sentiment and the strength of the dollar [4]. - The potential for a recession due to continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could lead to a resurgence in gold prices, but current economic indicators suggest caution in betting on a rebound [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised not to use essential funds for gold trading due to its high volatility compared to stocks [4]. - A long-term investment strategy should involve waiting for clearer trends, such as a peak in the dollar index or a reversal in Treasury yields, before entering the gold market [4]. - Silver may present a more attractive investment opportunity at this time, given the historical high ratio of gold to silver prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged dramatically, with international gold prices approaching $3500 per ounce after a significant increase from $2050 per ounce at the beginning of 2024, marking an over 70% rise in eighteen months, reminiscent of the 1970s gold bull market [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, predicting that gold will replace the US dollar as the "ultimate currency" by 2026 [3] - The market is experiencing a split, with gold ETFs growing to 160 billion yuan in six months, while physical gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 35.7% year-on-year, reaching a three-year low [3] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global central bank gold accumulation race [3] - Short-term catalysts for gold's rise include the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, renewed Middle Eastern conflicts, and the bursting of the tech bubble in US stock markets, positioning gold as a preferred asset for capital flight [3] - The dual nature of gold is highlighted, with retail investors seeking gold as a hedge against inflation while institutional investors use algorithms to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current upward trend in gold prices is driven by a significant breakout from a prolonged consolidation period between 2020 and 2023, influenced by worsening global geopolitical and economic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - The analysis suggests that gold is currently in the third wave of an upward trend, with expectations of a potential fourth wave correction followed by a fifth wave increase [1] - Recent price movements have shown extreme volatility, with gold reaching 3500, but closing with a long upper shadow candlestick, signaling potential risks despite the overall upward trend [3] Group 2 - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend for the next 1-2 years, reinforcing the expectation of continued price increases in gold [2][4] - The daily chart reflects a transitional phase with significant local pullbacks, but the overall upward momentum remains intact, supported by moving averages below current prices [6] - The four-hour chart indicates a clear range-bound movement, with critical support at 3260; a break below this level could lead to further declines, while a rise above 3371 would signal renewed strength [7][8]