避险

Search documents
多空因素交织,黄金走势震荡
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 13:43
周度报告-黄金 | 多空因素交织,黄金走势震荡 | | --- | [Table_Rank] 走势评级: 黄金:震荡 报告日期: 2025 年 7 月 6 日 [Table_Summary] ★市场综述: 伦敦金涨 1.9%至 3337 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.34%,通胀 预期 2.33%,实际利率升至 2%,美元指数跌 0.23%至 97.2,标普 500 指数涨 1.72%,离岸人民币小幅升值,内外价差窄幅波动。 金价有所反弹,市场交易重心再度转向美国对等关税,随着 90 天暂缓期逐渐到期,美国与越南达成协议,将对越南进口商品加 征 20%、转口商品加征 40%关税,欧盟和日本尚未达成协议,特 朗普政府表示将于 7 月 7 日对 12 个国家发关税信函。后续美国至 少会对贸易伙伴加征 10%及以上的关税,提振了黄金的避险属性, 但目前关税的烈度和不确定性不如 4 月份是高,因而黄金的涨幅 也相对有限。而美国经济数据表现尚可,也没有给黄金带来增量 利多,6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人,4 月和 5 月数据小幅上修, 近三个月平均增速 15 万人,而失业率下降至 4.1%低位,新增就 业主 ...
铂金涨幅超黄金 黄金还会继续亮眼吗
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-06 13:06
Group 1: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 54.27% as of July 5, making it the standout performer in the precious metals sector, often referred to as the "gold alternative" [1] - In contrast, gold prices have seen a more modest increase of 27.16% year-to-date, with the current price at $3,336.94 per ounce, down 4.7% from a peak of $3,500.12 [1] - The rise in platinum prices is attributed to both supply constraints and increased demand, particularly as platinum substitutes gold in investment and jewelry sectors due to gold's high prices [1] Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - There is a divergence in short-term outlook for gold prices, with some analysts predicting a potential decline due to improved global economic prospects and reduced geopolitical tensions [2] - Citibank forecasts that gold prices may drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing that the market has already priced in interest rate cuts [2] - Despite short-term concerns, long-term projections remain optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026 [3] Group 3: Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported a decline in physical gold demand in China, with a 35% decrease in gold outflows from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in May [4] - Global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion in May, marking the first monthly outflow since November of the previous year, leading to a 1% decrease in total assets under management [4] - Despite these challenges, the World Gold Council believes that gold may still attract investors seeking alternative safe-haven assets, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for gold demand [4]
白银、铂金 “涨”声不断!现在是入手的好时机吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 11:34
Group 1 - The global precious metals market has shown a divergence in trends this year, with silver and platinum prices significantly outperforming gold, attracting investor attention [1] - As of July 5, 2023, the spot silver price stabilized above $36, nearing a 13-year high, and has risen for six consecutive trading days. Platinum prices have surged by 36% this year, surpassing 300 yuan per gram [1][2] - The price of silver jewelry has generally increased by 15%-20%, with a silver bracelet that previously cost 400 yuan now priced close to 500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The rise in silver prices is supported by both industrial and financial demand. The industrial demand for silver has increased significantly due to its use in sectors like electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G, leading to a continuous supply shortage in the silver market [2] - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has seen a year-on-year increase of over 40% in sales, indicating strong consumer interest in silver as a hedge and investment asset [2] - As of July 5, 2023, the spot silver price rose by 0.27% to $36.91 per ounce, with analysts noting that silver is approaching a critical resistance level of $37 [2] Group 3 - Platinum prices have increased by over 36% this year, with a notable rise in demand for platinum jewelry, which has seen a 50% increase in sales compared to the previous year [3] - The increase in platinum prices is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and a shift in market sentiment, particularly due to rising demand from the automotive industry and the jewelry sector [3] - The global demand for platinum jewelry is expected to grow, with a projected 9% year-on-year increase in demand across various regions, totaling 17 tons by the first quarter of 2025 [3] Group 4 - The concentration of platinum mining in regions like South Africa limits supply, while the automotive industry's recovery and stricter environmental regulations are driving up demand for platinum in catalytic converters [3] - There is a growing interest among investors in platinum as part of a diversified asset allocation strategy, with an increase in inquiries and purchases of platinum investment products [3] - The counterfeit rate for platinum products has reached 17.3%, resulting in consumer losses exceeding 2 billion yuan annually, highlighting the need for caution when purchasing [3][4]
有色金属周报:大美丽法案推升美国财政赤字,看好金价长期走势-20250706
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 09:47
铜:本周 LME 铜价-0.27%到 9852.00 美元/吨,沪铜-0.24%到 7.97 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数涨至-44.25 美元/吨。截至本周四,全国主流地区铜库存较周一增加 0.57 万吨至 13.18 万吨,较上周四增加 0.17 万吨。消费端,据 SMM,本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率超预期降至 63.74%,环比下滑 10.27 个百分点,较 预期值低 9.74 个百分点,同比转负下滑 4.75 个百分点;本周铜线揽企业开工率降至 67.81%,环比下降 2.37 个百分 比,同比降 13.55 个百分比;本周漆包线行业开机率降至 79.53%,环比降 2.07%,超预期下滑。高铜价抑制下游订单, 叠加传统淡季需求疲软,市场表现低迷。 铝:本周 LME 铝价+0.01 %到 2597.50 美元/吨,沪铝+0.27%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,本周四国内主流消费 地电解铝锭库存 47.4 万吨,较本周一增加 0.6 万吨,环比上周四增加 1.1 万吨;国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社会库 存 23232 吨,较上周四增加 2646 吨。成本 ...
威尔鑫点金·׀为何美股强劲而商品市场滞涨? 风险厌恶还是偏好 能动摇黄金牛市根基吗
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 07:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].
多家明星私募最新观点出炉!看好这些机会
券商中国· 2025-07-06 01:48
进入2025年下半年 ,股市将会如何演绎,明星私募最新观点受到市场关注。 和谐汇一董事长兼总经理林鹏在投资月报中表示,6月的外部环境并不太平,在以 伊 冲突升温、美联储政策博 弈等外围市场扰动下,中国资本市场仍展现出较强的韧性,A股、港股同步走强,市场情绪保持了相对的亢 奋。 积极的一面是,中美经贸关系继续呈现持续缓和态势。国内经济基本面是下一阶段行情更为关键的变 量。 聚鸣投资董事长刘晓龙表示,经济总量需求依然比较低迷,处于底部状态,多数行业呈现总量平淡,结构性有 少数亮点的状态。流动性方面,在四月关税冲击后,全球总体风险偏好回升,虽然发生了以伊冲突,但总体平 稳。A股和港股市场也呈现流动性结构牛的迹象。高股息类资产、避险资产、结构增长的资产,还是市场共识 所在。 也要注意,政府高度重视内卷带来的经济负面冲击,在一些行业,可能会逐步学习电解铝行业,走出 行业恶性内卷,这可能是未来机会所在。 重阳投资合伙人、战略研究部主管寇志伟对市场总体不悲观。 他近期表示,现在无论是中国内地市场还是中 国香港市场,流动性都非常充裕,港元和美元短期利率发生了历史上从没有过的背离。中国内地经济和股票市 场都在4月份经历了关税战 ...
对等关税大限将至【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-07-05 08:02
Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].
【财经分析】黄金上半年涨势喜人 短期波动或不改长期牛市
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-05 05:23
Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices reached a historical high in Q2, with a more than 25% increase over the past six months, and spot gold was reported at $3342.80 per ounce as of July 4 [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may face pressure in the second half of 2025 due to weakening demand and increasing supply, despite ongoing support from geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar [1][3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have been accumulating gold to hedge against inflation and diversify assets, with global central bank net gold purchases exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [2] - In the first four months of 2025, central banks net purchased 256 tons of gold, maintaining high demand levels [2] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2296.37 tons as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase for seven months [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Alternatives - The rising gold prices have led jewelers to diversify into platinum, which has seen a price increase of over 30% this year, reflecting strong demand in the jewelry market, particularly in China [4][5] - Analysts suggest that even a small shift in demand from gold jewelry to platinum could significantly increase the supply gap for platinum [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The gold sector has shown strong performance, with COMEX gold futures up 26.89% year-to-date, and several Hong Kong gold and jewelry stocks have surged over 100% [7] - Investors are advised to consider a long-term holding strategy for gold, as it may provide good returns despite short-term volatility [8]
美国出手了!千万小心自己的财富
大胡子说房· 2025-07-05 04:50
美国本月会有一个非常关键的事件,它的重要性要比老美的关税暂缓到期更加重要。 这个事件就是即将要通过的—— 大漂亮 法案(One Big Beautiful Bills) 这个法案的重要之处在于: 但是我发现,这么重要的法案,市面上还没有真正深度的解读,大家似乎不是很关注这个老美为未来几年布局的法案。 接下来这篇文章,建议大家一定要看到最后! 因为如果你看完且看懂的话,可能会在下半年给你带来 一个潜在的财富机会。 上周末,懂王和他的团队加班加点,终于在美国参议院以51票赞成对49票反对的结果,投票通过了大美丽法案可以进行公开讨论的权利。 注意,这只是可以公开讨论的阶段,也就是法案可以上台面在国会讨论了,还没有正式通过。 昨天,参议院又以51-50的微弱优势投票通过了大美丽法案, 它可能会主导整个全球资本市场接下来下半年的走势,也很有可能会影响你下半年甚至明后两年的财富走向。 减税,目的不是给穷人减税,而是为了给企业减税、给富人减税。 因为懂王目的是 制造业回流 。 要制造业回流,就需要降低成本、需要政府让利,用减税的手段吸引有钱人和国外的资本流入,投资老美的实体产业。 现在,这个法案距离正式通过只需要最后一步: ...
把存款逼出银行?2.46万亿存款大逃亡!银行急了,存款去哪儿了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 23:51
Core Insights - A silent wealth defense battle is unfolding in China, triggered by a record increase in household deposits of 9.22 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating underlying financial instability [1] Group 1: Deposit Migration - The recent interest rate cuts have pushed three-year fixed deposit rates below 1.8%, leading to a significant decline in interest income for depositors [2] - The average growth rate of M2 money supply over the past five years has been 9.5%, causing a visible erosion of savings in banks [2] Group 2: Wealth Management Market - In April 2025, the scale of wealth management products surged by approximately 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching a historical peak of 31.1 trillion yuan, with an enticing annualized yield of 2.4% [2] - Despite the allure of higher returns, there are numerous cases of losses in wealth management products, highlighting the risks involved [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - A total of 8.73 million new stock accounts were opened in the first five months of 2025, indicating a significant influx of retail investors into the stock market [4] - The contrasting experiences of investors reveal the volatility of the stock market, with some achieving substantial gains while others face significant losses [4] Group 4: Gold as a Safe Haven - In Q1 2025, the consumption of gold bars and coins surged by 29.81% to 138 tons, while gold jewelry consumption plummeted by 26.85%, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [6] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons during the same period, reinforcing the trend of gold accumulation among the public [6] Group 5: Consumer Spending and Real Estate - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, yet underlying data suggests a decline in household spending [6] - The real estate market shows conflicting trends, with a 2.1% decrease in property sales but a record high in new personal housing loans of 567.2 billion yuan in May [6] Group 6: Corporate Lending Issues - New loans to enterprises and institutions amounted to 8.66 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, but much of this funding is not effectively reaching the real economy [8] - Reports indicate that loans are often used for payroll and debt repayment rather than productive investments [8] Group 7: Deposit Insurance Concerns - The leaked draft of new deposit insurance regulations has caused public anxiety, leading individuals to split large deposits into multiple accounts to mitigate perceived risks [10]