2025年5月，中美在日内瓦达成的"联合声明"为全球市场注入一剂强心针，但这场博弈远未结 束—— 美方取消对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税， 并暂 停24%的"对等关税"90天，中方也相应 取消91%的反制关税，暂停24%的报复性措施。 这种精巧的"条件对等"设计背后， 究竟隐藏着怎 样的战略考量？当美国平均关税水平触及1930年代大萧条以来的峰值，当"美元霸权终结论"再度 甚嚣尘上，全球经济是否正站在秩序重构的临界点？ 高盛集团首席经济学家哈哲思近期接受了我们的独家专访。这位精准预言2008年金融危机 的"华尔街预言家"，将解码三大核心议题：日内瓦联合声明是危机软着陆的开端还是更大风暴的 前奏？美元近期的表现是否会动摇美元霸权的根基？中国科技创新的"替代性增长动能"能否抵消 关税冲击？ 精彩观点 ： "90 天缓冲"风险 ： 90天之后会发生什么？ 哈哲思谈到："我认为有可能看到贸易壁垒进一步减少的机会，但也存在风险，如果在这90天内无法 达成协议，可能会重新升级。所以说这并不是一个永久性的解决方案是完全正确的，但它确实给了我们一 些喘息的空间，结果比我们预期的要好。" "特朗普救市"再现： 股市对"解放日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political dynamics in California, particularly focusing on Governor Newsom's response to immigration policies and the tensions arising from them, as well as the implications for future elections and political maneuvering [1][17]. Group 1: Political Context - California is a hub for tech elites who are largely immigrants, and the anti-immigration policies of the Trump administration have created significant resentment among these groups [2][3]. - The article draws parallels between the current immigration tensions and the Black Lives Matter movement, suggesting that both are fueled by emotional responses rather than rational discourse [3][4]. Group 2: Governor Newsom's Strategy - Governor Newsom is leveraging the current political climate to position himself against Trump, aiming to attract swing voters by emphasizing the importance of immigration and state rights [7][17]. - Newsom's approach includes framing the immigration debate in a way that separates American interests from Trump's policies, thereby appealing to a broader audience [15][18]. Group 3: Implications for Future Elections - The article suggests that Newsom's actions are not just about immediate political gains but are also aimed at positioning himself for the 2028 presidential election [14][17]. - By focusing on the perceived threats to American law and political traditions posed by Trump, Newsom seeks to galvanize support among moderate voters [18][22]. Group 4: Broader Political Landscape - The article highlights the ongoing tensions within the U.S. political landscape, noting that while there are significant conflicts, the elite class tends to find compromises to maintain the status quo [21][26]. - It argues that the real conflict in America is not between different social classes but rather among the elite, who share common interests in preserving American hegemony [25][26].

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期沪银期货价格创上市以来新高，国际白银ETF连续增仓的情况下，欧美降息预期抬升、叠加宏观市场情绪转暖预期提振白银工业 属性，沪银表现强于黄金、金银比小幅修复。 此前黄金屡创新高，白银被低估，金银比一度逼近105（历史均值60-80），随着避险情绪升温，白银成为"价值洼地"，资金涌入推动 其补涨，金银比回落至90。全球最大白银ETF持仓量持续增加，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）净多头持仓攀升，显示出资金对 白银强烈的看涨情绪。 2025年全球货币体系发生深刻变化，美元霸权遭遇挑战。特朗普政府的一系列政策，如强推制造业回流、关税壁垒等，导致全球美元 回流美国，美元流动性减少，且面临 "特里芬难题" 升级版，即美联储在加息抑制通胀与降息刺激经济维持贸易逆差之间两难抉择， 这削弱了美元信用。 投资者对美元信心下降，转而寻求其他避险资产，白银作为传统的避险资产之一，受到投资者青睐。全球政治经济不确定性增加，如 地缘政治冲突、贸易政策不稳定等， ...

今天特别高兴，因为我们要共同见证国内外知名学者郑永年教授新作《论单边开放》的国内首发式，这 部著作以深邃的历史视角和前瞻性的全球化战略思维，揭示了中国单边开放的独特路径及其世界意义， 这里我想用10多分钟时间，讲一个主题，"中国单边开放是世界近代史的奇迹"。 为什么说是近代史上的奇迹呢？ 我想有三点理由： 第一，中国的单边开放是对全球化逻辑和规则的创造性的突破。 回顾世界近代史，西方主导的"全球化"长期遵循"对等开放"原则，甚至以武力强迫他国打开市场，而中 国改革开放实践，尤其是加入WTO后的主动单边开放，打破了这一传统逻辑和规则。我们主动降低关 税，关税水平从加入WTO时承诺的平均关税15.3%降到7.4%，大大低于绝大多数发展中国家。参加这次 会议的WTO前总干事帕斯卡尔告诉我，中国是WTO的最好学生，是优等生。我们多次简化和放宽外资 准入，到2023年底，中国累计吸引外资总额达3.3万亿美元，在华外资企业已达66万户，连续30年位居 发展中国家首位。我们设立了自贸区和自贸港。中国不断地改善营商环境和加强知识产权的保护。中国 现已成为全球外商投资的"首选地"。 当前全球化遭遇逆流，单边主义、贸易保护主义和 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the internal chaos in the U.S., particularly in Los Angeles and New York, as a result of the current administration's actions, which are turning communities into "war zones" and prompting military intervention [1][22][26] - The U.S. is facing a decline in its global dominance due to the current administration's policies, which are undermining the strength of the dollar and the military, leading to a loss of credibility and trust among allies [3][10][11] - The imposition of tariffs by the current administration has not only harmed international trade but has also negatively impacted the U.S. economy, with allies distancing themselves and the credibility of the U.S. being severely affected [5][9][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing conflict between state and federal authorities, exemplified by the protests in Los Angeles against immigration enforcement, which reflect deeper societal fractures in the U.S. [22][26][29] - The current administration's attacks on prestigious institutions like Harvard are seen as detrimental to the U.S.'s global competitiveness, as these institutions are crucial for innovation and talent acquisition [15][20] - The article suggests that the current administration's actions are leading to increased political division, particularly between the Democratic and Republican parties, exacerbating tensions within the country [28][29][31]

自特朗普重新进入白宫以来，他曾扬言要引领美国重返伟大，但迄今为止，实际上他的成绩几乎可以用"一事无成"来形容。关税战的启动不仅没有带来实质 性成果，反而让美国与多个经济体的关系更加紧张；对俄乌局势发出的最后通牒也是徒劳无功，反而让特朗普的外交政策形象蒙上阴影；至于他尝试吞并加 拿大和格陵兰岛的计划，根本没有任何进展，最终都以失败告终。越来越多的事实证明，单边主义与霸权主义的时代已经过去。若特朗普继续不改其错误政 策，等待他的，很可能是"墙倒众人推"的结局。 近期，特朗普又迎来了6个令人震惊的噩耗。 第一件事，特朗普的支持率急剧下降。根据最新的民调数据显示，尽管特朗普已经执掌白宫100天，但他的支持率已跌至39%。对此，特朗普于6月6日表 示，纽约时报和华盛顿邮报的民调结果不可信，因为大部分受访者都是民主党人，因此他认为这是一次被操控的调查，并没有任何可信度。特朗普坚信，真 正的民调结果会显示他目前的表现比以往任何时候都要好。确实，虽然美国的主流媒体往往倾向于支持民主党，但全美各地的"反特朗普"抗议活动、一些共 和党议员倒戈民主党的现象，都是不容忽视的事实。如果特朗普真的认为自己的表现受到了选民的高度认可，那么 ...

Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 6 basis points and the 30-year yield surpassing 5% signals a looming economic crisis in the U.S. with a staggering $36 trillion in debt at risk of collapse [1] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit rating, with Moody's lowering it from "Aaa" to "Aa1" in May 2024, citing excessive government debt and interest burdens [3] - The U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035, alongside a fiscal deficit of $2.1 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year [3] Group 2 - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating triggered significant market reactions, with major stock indices falling, including a 1.49% drop in Nasdaq futures and a 4% pre-market decline for Tesla [4] - Investors reacted by selling off U.S. Treasuries, leading to a spike in the 30-year Treasury yield above 5% and the 10-year yield exceeding 4.5% [4] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, while gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% [4] Group 3 - Financial leaders, including JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, warned that extreme fiscal policies could lead to a crisis in the U.S. debt market, labeling the rising government debt as the "biggest risk" to the macroeconomy [6][7] - The potential collapse of U.S. Treasuries could create a dilemma for the government, as increasing taxes or cutting fiscal support would be challenging [7] - Trump's urgent desire to communicate with China is seen as an attempt to alleviate U.S. financial pressures, as China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt, now down to $765.4 billion [7][9] Group 4 - Despite some progress in U.S.-China negotiations, significant differences remain, with the U.S. imposing restrictions on China, complicating the potential for dialogue [9] - The crisis surrounding the $36 trillion U.S. debt is not only a domestic issue but poses a significant challenge to the global economy, indicating a potential shift in the global economic landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing distrust in the US dollar system, highlighted by Florida's legislation allowing the use of gold and silver as legal tender, amidst a backdrop of potential crises in the US debt market and the weakening of the dollar's global dominance [1][3][6]. Group 1: Legislative Actions - Florida's legislation allows for gold and silver to be used as legal tender starting in 2025, reflecting a local government's lack of trust in the federal dollar system [1][3]. - The law requires businesses to apply for licenses to accept precious metal payments, contradicting its stated goal of deregulation [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, leading to a sell-off of US Treasuries, with China's holdings dropping to $765.4 billion [3][6]. - The ten-year US Treasury yield is approaching 6%, raising concerns of a potential repeat of the 2008 financial crisis [3]. Group 3: Global Context - The article notes a trend of "de-dollarization," with countries like Russia and India moving away from the dollar in trade, and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves falling from 73% in 2001 to 58% [6]. - China's diversification of foreign reserves and the establishment of the CIPS covering 180 countries are highlighted as significant moves against the dollar's dominance [5][6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The article describes a paradox where saving the dollar requires fiscal tightening, which could trigger a recession, while continued borrowing accelerates credit collapse [9]. - The internal division within the US is evident, with contrasting views on inflation risks and ongoing infrastructure spending plans [9].

2025年06月07日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 "TACO 交易"或已过热,全球资金有望持续增配中国资产 报告摘要 核心观点: 作者 董忠云 分析师 SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 联系电话:010-59562478 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com 符肠 分析师 SAC 执业证书: S0640514070001 联系电话:010-59562469 邮箱:fuyyjs@avicsec.com 庞晨 研究助理 SAC 执业证书: S0640124040009 联系电话: 邮箱:pangc@avicsec.com 王警仪 研究助理 SAC 执业证书：S0640123090015 联系电话: 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com 杨子萌 SAC 执业证书:S0640124060008 联系电话: 邮箱:yangzm@avicsec.com 相关研究报告 中航策略周报:《全球配置再平衡,港股估 值重估正在路上》 中航策略周报:《全球市场波动或将加剧, 中国资产有望成为避风港》 中航策略周报:《关税阶段性缓和,市场焦 点或将回归基本面》 中航策略周报:《中美关税战或进入拉锯 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 当前国际货币体系正在经历一场深刻变革。美国公共债务长期无序扩张，俄乌冲突中的美元"武器化"[1]，以及特朗普2.0时期的一系列政策主张，持续侵 蚀美元作为国际储备货币的信用基础。这一结构性变化既影响全球贸易与经济稳定，也孕育着国际货币体系重构的历史契机。"有时候几十年里什么都没 发生，有时候几星期就发生了几十年的大事。"我们可能正在见证国际货币秩序的关键转折。然而，长期以来，人们对国际货币体系存在诸多认知偏差， 既有根深蒂固的传统误解，也有大变局下催生的新困惑。本文梳理了国际货币体系中最具代表性的十个"未解之谜"。尝试对这些谜题的分析与解答，有助 于我们理解国际货币体系的运行特点与演进方向，也可能成为全球治理的关键密码。 谜题一："特里芬难题"的误读与误导 布雷顿森林体系解体后，"特里芬难题"发展出经常账户与"安全资产"两个版本，既有对储备货币需要以经常账户赤字为前提的误读，更有故意以储备货币 地位导致赤字因而是严重负担的误导。这存在三个误区：混淆净资本与总资本流入，混淆"赚来的"和"借来的"外汇储备，混淆双边与多边资本流动。我们 认为，只要实现大规模对外投资， ...