一周内将油价预测下调两次的高盛集团表示，在贸易战升级、供应增加的极端情形下，布伦特油价可能 跌破每桶40美元。在全球GDP放缓和OPEC+减产全面解除这种更极端的情形下，我们估计布伦特原油 2026年底将跌破每桶40美元，不过可能性很小。这一观点并不代表该行目前的基本情景预测，即预计明 年12月布伦特原油价格将在每桶55美元。（彭博） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, major negative news such as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff", China's strong response, and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase have severely hit the international capital market, leading to a rare capital selling spree and panic in the market. There are no signs of improvement in market sentiment, and there is a possibility of further decline in risk assets [4]. - In the long - term, although the fundamentals of crude oil remain in a pattern of loose supply and demand, the current sharp decline seems too rapid [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary - Trump plans to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw its 34% tariff by April 8, 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce has strongly responded, stating that it will take counter - measures if the US persists [2]. - On April 7, the SC main contract on the domestic market hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. On the international market, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel [2]. - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of a 90 - day tariff suspension led to a sharp rebound in the stock market and oil prices, but they later gave up most of the gains. The EU has proposed a "zero - tariff" agreement and announced phased counter - measures. Geopolitically, the Houthi attack on US warships and the US retaliatory air - strike on Yemen did not improve market sentiment [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected monthly increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. On the demand side, the global trade war risk has weakened the expected demand for crude oil. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels in the week ending March 28 [3]. 3.2. Fuel Oil - On April 7, FU closed at 3057 yuan/ton, LU at 3497 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 207.6 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side. The supply of Russian and Iranian fuel oil is restricted by international trade, but if the geopolitical situation changes, the export channels may reopen. The high - sulfur variety has strong support, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety is not significantly pressured due to the release of refining capacity in China [5]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, most crude oil futures and spot prices declined. For example, SC futures price dropped by 5.89%, WTI by 8.51%, and Brent by 7.81%. Some spot prices like Oman and Dubai dropped by about 14%. Price spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI increased. The US dollar index rose by 1.48%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index declined. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.42% from March 21 to March 28 [7]. Fuel Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, fuel oil futures and spot prices mostly declined. For example, FU futures price dropped by 7.14%, LU by 6.27%, and NYMEX fuel oil by 4.80%. Some spot prices such as IFO380 in Singapore and Rotterdam also decreased. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil decreased by 2.47% from March 21 to March 28 [9]. 3.4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Price - On April 7, the SC main contract hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil decreased by 12.81% to 59.88 dollars/barrel [10]. Outer - market Price - On April 7, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 8.24% to 66.67 dollars/barrel, and other global crude oil spot prices dropped by about 14% [11]. Macro - aspect - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of tariff suspension led to a short - term rebound in the stock market and oil prices. The trade war is intensifying, with the EU proposing a "zero - tariff" agreement and counter - measures. Trump's tariff policy may lead to a tariff rate of nearly 104% between China and the US [12]. Supply - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. A Russian court's ruling may prevent a decline in Kazakhstan's oil exports [14]. Demand - If China's counter - measures are implemented, it may stop importing crude oil from the US. In 2024, China imported 9.63 million tons of crude oil from the US, accounting for about 1.7% of its total imports. Tariffs have limited impact on China's overall crude oil imports but may affect trade flows [15]. Inventory - In the week ending March 28, the US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels, strategic crude oil inventory increased by 285,000 barrels, oil production increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate decreased by 1% to 86%, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.551 million barrels, heating oil inventory increased by 209,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 264,000 barrels [16]. Market Information - US Energy Secretary Wright will visit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Trump said the US will have direct negotiations with Iran, and indirect high - level talks will be held in Oman on April 12. Trump is not satisfied with Russia's attacks on Ukraine and demands fair and reciprocal trade with the EU [17]. 3.5. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers in different regions, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of relevant data [18][21][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy leads to a sharp decline in international oil prices, and the possibility of trade - war escalation due to tariff issues will continue to impact the commodity market. The overall valuation of PX and PTA has declined, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain may continue to play a role. The short - term industry situation of polyester is severe, and it is necessary to pay attention to the internal structural opportunities in the industrial chain and the tariff negotiation trends of various countries [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Daily Market Summary PX & PTA - PX main contract PX2505 closed at 6392 yuan/ton, down 5.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 71 yuan/ton. PTA main contract PTA2505 closed at 4550 yuan/ton, down 5.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton [1] - Cost - end: Trump's tariff policy led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. WTI crude oil main contract closed at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent oil closed at 64.36 dollars/barrel. Supply - end: Multiple PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans, with PX domestic device operating rate at 77.8% and Asian operating rate at 72.5%, and PTA operating rate around 86.1%. Polyester operating rate is around 93.2%. Demand - end: The total transaction volume of Light Textile City is 750 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction is 863.87 million meters [2] Polyester - The short - fiber main contract PF2505 closed at 6154 yuan/ton, down 5.06% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market is 6560 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 306 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have reduction plans, and the supply - end pressure is expected to be greatly reduced. The restart of bottle - chip maintenance devices has increased the operating rate by 2.88% to 75.26%, and the supply - end is under pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and some spot prices have declined to varying degrees, and there are also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and other indicators. The prices of some products in the industrial chain such as Brent oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol have also changed, and the processing spreads of some products have increased significantly [6][7] 3. Industrial Dynamics Macro Dynamics - The US consumer confidence index dropped to the lowest in more than four years in March. China has launched a series of counter - measures against the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US products and implementing export controls on some rare earths [9] Industry Dynamics - Toray announced that it will stop producing PTA in Japan in 2026 and will turn to external procurement [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the industrial chain, including PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, operating rates, monthly spreads, processing fees, production benefits, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [12][14][15]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to decline, while spot gold prices have rebounded strongly, surpassing $3000, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to concerns over escalating trade wars [1][2] - President Trump emphasized the importance of tariffs to his economic agenda and stated that he has no plans to suspend tariff policies, indicating a potential for permanent tariffs while also suggesting negotiations could occur [2][4] - China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the US's threats of increasing tariffs by 50%, stating that if the US proceeds with these measures, China will take resolute countermeasures to protect its rights [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the recent statements from both US and Chinese officials have intensified market risk aversion, contributing to the rebound in gold prices after a previous decline [2] - Economies.com analysts reported that gold prices are attempting to recover some losses, testing the psychological resistance level at $3000, although the upward movement is constrained by short-term corrective downward trends [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Amid trade - war panic, the oil price has weakened and is mainly in a downward trend. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the US - Iran negotiation [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners, with higher tariffs on some. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9. The EU and Canada will take counter - measures. China has also imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imports. The market is worried that the escalating trade war will suppress oil demand. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels starting from May, and the US may have direct talks with Iran [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2505 fell 6.18% to 478.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 473.2 yuan/ton and a high of 494.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3021 to 19,593 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA has adjusted the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate down by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.27 million barrels per day, and the 2026 growth rate up by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels per day. It also raised the 2025 US crude oil production growth rate by 10,000 barrels per day to 390,000 barrels per day. OPEC kept its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts unchanged. IEA cut the 2025 global demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and increased the 2025 global surplus by 150,000 barrels per day to 600,000 barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of April 2, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 28 increased by 6.165 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.116 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.551 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 264,000 barrels, and heating oil inventories increased by 209,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.373 million barrels [3]. Supply and Demand - OPEC's January crude oil production was revised up by 28,000 barrels per day to 26.706 million barrels per day, and its February 2025 production increased by 154,000 barrels per day to 26.86 million barrels per day, driven by production increases in Iran and Nigeria. US crude oil production in the week ending March 28 increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, slightly recovering from the record high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.094 million barrels per day, a 0.86% decrease from the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 1.71% to 8.495 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand decreased by 1.86% from the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 1.18% to 3.679 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.67% from the same period last year [4]. - The weekly supply of US crude oil products increased by 4.59% month - on - month [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S., reaching the highest level since 1910, with a broad 10% minimum baseline tariff set to take effect on April 5 [4][10] - The tariffs on key trading partners vary significantly, with China facing a 34% tariff, Vietnam 46%, the EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Thailand 36% [4][31] - The report indicates that the U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with China, the EU, and Mexico contributing 25%, 20%, and 14% respectively [4][31] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been characterized by a strong strategic stance, implementing countermeasures including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and export controls on certain U.S. companies [3][8] - The report anticipates further escalation of the trade conflict, particularly given the U.S. administration's firm stance and the lack of effective agreements with other countries [9][10] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the face of high inflation and economic resilience is noted, with potential economic impacts from the tariffs expected to be more significant than previously anticipated [10][11] Group 3 - The report identifies "risk-off" sentiment in the market, with traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and the VIX index experiencing strong gains, while risk assets have faced significant declines [12][15] - It suggests that the current market environment is similar to past periods of heightened uncertainty, with a focus on defensive investment strategies [12][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend, domestic demand, and food security sectors as potential investment opportunities amid the ongoing trade tensions [15][20] Group 4 - The report outlines specific investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend sectors, gold, semiconductor companies, and domestic consumption as a response to the trade conflict [20][22] - It highlights the potential for gold stocks to benefit from increased geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, as well as the opportunity for domestic semiconductor companies to gain from increased restrictions on imports [21][22] - The report also notes that agricultural stocks may benefit from the trade tensions, particularly those related to food security, as China imposes tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [22]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 8 日 LLDPE：低位震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2505 | 7320 | -4.80% | 431,019 | -5885 | | 持仓变动 | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | 260 | | 6 0 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | 5 9 | | 5 8 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7580 | | 7750 | | | | 华东 | 7700 | | 7800 | | | | 华南 | 7850 | | 7900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格多数下跌，价格波幅在 20-150 元/吨。线性期货低开弱势震荡，且受中美互 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is facing a systemic risk, characterized as a short but intense storm, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear phase. However, this does not imply that all global markets will follow suit, as China's capital market may present mid-term opportunities after a short-term risk assessment [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has clearly entered a bear phase, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, which have detrimental effects on global wealth [4][13]. - Recent declines in gold and Bitcoin indicate a shift in market logic from risk aversion to liquidity shocks [5][15]. - The VIX volatility index and other indicators suggest that short-term liquidity concerns are overshadowing market sentiment [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economy is expected to face recession, with inflation risks likely to rise in the second half of the year [7][20]. - The impact of tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth over 25 years, with a potential 1% decline this year [20]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to market conditions will be significantly less than in 2020, limiting its capacity for quantitative easing [8][21]. Group 3: China Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market's performance will depend on internal factors and fundamental conditions rather than external shocks [9][26]. - China's risk premium is currently at a historical high, indicating that the economy may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery once policies are implemented [27][28]. - The mid-term outlook for China's capital market is optimistic, driven by technological advancements and new consumption trends [28][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on active defense, avoiding leverage, and waiting for market stabilization before making significant investments [40][41]. - Strategic asset allocation should prioritize technology, new consumption sectors, and traditional assets like gold and military stocks [43]. - The current market environment presents a unique opportunity for value investment, particularly in the context of China's economic resilience and potential recovery [38][44].

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to increase the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.4% to 34.45% [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney warned that Trump's tariff policies could lead the U.S. into a recession, significantly increasing the risk of economic downturn [1] - Carney emphasized that the tariffs fundamentally harm the U.S. economy and, consequently, the global economy, leading to market reactions [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries, effective April 5, with higher tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits to follow [2] - Carney stated that Canada would respond to U.S. auto tariffs with a 25% countermeasure, indicating ongoing trade tensions [2] - Economic experts predict that the tariffs could lead to a significant increase in U.S. inflation and a potential recession, with global economic growth slowing by at least 1 percentage point [3]

来源|证券时报 市场风险偏好急剧下降！ 由特朗普关税挑起的"贸易战"，让全球股市连续多日大跌。周一，美国股指期货继续暴跌，亚太股市也集体重挫。今日，加密货币也加入暴跌行列， 比特币大跌超10%，并跌破7.5万美元/枚，以太坊、XRP、Solana等跌幅均超过18%。 加密货币的快速下跌表明，美国总统特朗普所倡导的加密货币与其他任何风险资产一样，都会受到市场波动的影响。 Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓超13.6亿美元，爆仓人数超过44万人。有分析人士指出，加密货币通常是风险资产 的领先指标，预计美国股市今天开盘后将出现更剧烈的回调。 01 超44万人爆仓 周一，加密货币市场遭遇大幅抛售，突显出市场上明显的避险情绪。截至券商中国记者发稿，比特币跌破7.5万美元/枚，24小时内跌幅超过10%。 其他加密货币跌幅更大，以太坊跌近20%，XRP、狗狗币跌超20%，Solana跌超18%。 | 名称 : | 代码 = | 价格(USD) = | 成交量(24H) ; | 交易份额 : | 涨跌(24H) ; | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...