特朗普要求仍不明确，欧盟面临两难 特朗普推迟欧盟关税大限，市场暂时松了一口气，但美欧之间的贸易较量仍远未结束，分析师警告投资 者应"系好安全带"，为更多波动做好准备，贸易战威胁依然笼罩在全球市场之上。 据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日， 他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。欧盟委员会也证实，欧美贸 易代表定于26日周一（欧洲时间）下午进行通话，并表示特朗普与冯德莱恩的对话为谈判注入了"新动 力"。 这一消息点燃投资者的乐观情绪。欧股周一集体大涨，一举扭转上周五的颓势，欧元兑美元升至一个月 高点，而作为避险资产的黄金价格应声下跌。然而，在分析师们看来，欧美谈判的前景仍不明朗，市场 波动性恐将加剧。 伦敦Zaye Capital Markets首席投资官Naeem Aslam警告称，关税延期虽然引发了"试探性的风险偏好反 弹"，但前景仍不明朗。他在一封电子邮件中表示： 展望未来，欧美贸易舞蹈是一场"高风险的探戈"，7月9日将是下一个引爆点。欧盟正在推动 分阶段降低关税和"相互尊重""谈判，但特朗普的"美国优先"姿态可能会将 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, exceeding market expectations and highlighting rising uncertainties due to government tariff policies [1] - Concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy are growing amid a global trade war, leading to declines in consumer and business confidence, which in turn affected U.S. stock index futures [1] U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has recently signaled a willingness to significantly reduce tariffs on China, but this was clarified by China as non-existent, and subsequent talks have not materialized [3] - The U.S. continues to demand negotiations with China, emphasizing the need for "fairness" in trade [3] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. Department of Commerce has intensified export controls on semiconductor technology to China, specifically targeting Huawei's Ascend chips, which serves as a warning to other countries against purchasing these chips [5] - China's Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral actions, claiming they violate international law and market principles, and warned that such measures could lead to retaliatory actions under China's anti-foreign sanctions law [5][6] Implications for China - If China cannot access advanced foreign chips, it may accelerate its efforts in self-research and development, potentially leading to a complete independence from foreign semiconductor suppliers [5] - The historical precedent suggests that once China commits to self-research, it is likely to achieve domestic production capabilities, which could negatively impact foreign chip manufacturers' access to the Chinese market [5] Global Semiconductor Supply Chain - The U.S. actions are viewed as a form of unilateral bullying that could destabilize the global semiconductor supply chain, prompting China to enhance its innovation capabilities [6] - The ongoing trade tensions and restrictions are seen as counterproductive to global cooperation and innovation, which are essential for mutual benefits in the technology sector [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative reported that China agreed to lift export countermeasures imposed after April, including restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, although no changes were made to rare earth export controls [1] - China holds 70% of global rare earth mining and 92% of refining capacity, making it a dominant player in the rare earth supply chain [4] - The U.S. has been slow to develop its rare earth sector due to environmental regulations and high costs, with companies like Neo Performance Materials stating that it takes at least 29 years to establish a rare earth mine in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Rare earths are critical for high-tech and military industries, used in advanced equipment such as F-35 fighter jets and renewable energy technologies [4] - Recent reports suggest that China issued four rare earth export licenses, the first since imposing restrictions on certain rare earths, which may be a strategic move ahead of negotiations [6] - The U.S. military and energy sectors are heavily reliant on rare earths, and China's control over pricing and supply has led to significant price increases, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising over 200% [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. has attempted to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths through various measures, but lacks the necessary separation and purification technology, making it difficult to rebuild the supply chain [6][8] - Analysts indicate that rebuilding a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China could take 10 to 15 years, during which time U.S. industrial security may be compromised [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周五威胁要再次升级贸易战，建议从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%的关税； 伊朗与美国代表团周五在罗马结束第五轮谈判，迹象显示会谈取得有限进展，外交人士指出，鉴于协 议的复杂性，从技术角度讲不太可能在今夏前达成具体协议；哈萨克石油部长称，预计该国今年石油 产量料超过原计划产出目标9620万吨，因雪弗龙主导开发的Tengiz油田产出增加，尽管该国正面临来 自OPEC+方面要求其削减石油产出的压力；中性 2.基差：5月23日，阿曼原油现货价为63.31美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war by suggesting a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $150 last week due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, but the extension of the tariff deadline to July 9 may lead to a potential price correction [3][1] - The WTI crude oil futures experienced fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding to above $61 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][6] Group 2 - The gold market is currently showing signs of potential adjustment after reaching a high of $3365, with technical indicators suggesting a possible downward movement [3][1] - Oil prices are in a volatile state, with support observed at the $60 mark, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern unless significant news or data emerges [6][4] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes risk management, highlighting the importance of avoiding significant losses while navigating market fluctuations [6]

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地风险仍存，震荡探底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美欧贸易战担忧、美豆收跌，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡走势缺乏驱动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：等待老鸡淘汰驱动 | 10 | | 生猪：被动累库形成，趋势反套 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 2025年05月26日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 26 日 棕榈油：产地风险仍存，震荡探底 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.15% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. The new - year US soybeans may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise while domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has support from low inventories in some regions, but if the production continues to recover rapidly, the oil price will still be under pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - The sugar market may face a weakening trend as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [15][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates [18][19]. - The egg market is under pressure with increasing supply, and a bearish view is maintained on near - month contracts [21][22]. - The short - term trend of the pig market is restricted, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [24][25]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybeans closed down on Friday due to concerns about exports. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas has disturbances, which may affect sowing. The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuates slightly, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing [2][3]. - **Supply Forecast**: According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume last week was 2.21 million tons, and it is expected to be 2.25 million tons this week [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports show different trends in different periods. The domestic spot basis of oils has a slight downward trend [6][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oils market is expected to be volatile. Bearish factors include the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Bullish factors are the low inventories in some regions [13]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The number of ships waiting to load sugar and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports decreased [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply situation has eased, and domestic imports are expected to increase, so the sugar price is likely to weaken [16]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The downstream operating rates decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates, the cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and may fill the upper gap [19]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price first fell and then stabilized over the weekend, with some areas rising. The supply of newly - laying hens continues to increase, and the demand is mostly stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts such as 06 and 07, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts such as 09 [22]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price mostly rose over the weekend, with some areas having a resurgence of secondary fattening and a cautious attitude from the breeding side [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not go long in the short - term, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the future [25].

智通财经APP注意到，过去一个月股市的狂热反弹现已暂停，因对财政赤字的担忧加剧推动国债收益率飙升，同时特朗普总统再次威胁提高关税。 上周五，特朗普威胁将对非美国制造的苹果产品直接征收25%关税，并警告可能在6月初将欧盟关税提高至50%。这导致主要股指连续一周下跌：纳斯达克 综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数当周均下跌约2.4%，标普500指数下跌约2.6%。 未来一周，贸易战进展和特朗普悬而未决的税收法案仍将是关注焦点。英伟达(NVDA)周三盘后公布的季度财报预计将成为市场焦点。Okta(OKTA.US)、 Salesforce(CRM.US)和好市多(COST.US)的财报也将受到投资者关注。经济数据方面，美联储青睐的通胀指标——4月核心PCE物价指数将于周五公布。美股 周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。 不过上周五债券抛售有所缓解，因特朗普再次威胁提高关税，提醒投资者即使对多国关税实施90天暂停期，贸易政策的不确定性仍远未结束。 Piper Sandler首席投资策略师迈克尔·坎特罗维茨写道，"可以说目前我们正处于贸易不确定性的低谷期，""现阶段市场需要看到这些关税被撤销且债券收益率 不再飙升，才能实现实质性上涨。" ...

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着投资者对贸易战的担忧再度加剧，过去一周，美股三大指数累计跌幅均超过2%，纳指跌2.47%，标 普500指数跌2.61%，道指跌2.47%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议从2025年6月1日起对欧 盟产品直接征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无需缴纳关税。欧盟设置了强大的贸易 壁垒、征收增值税、企业罚款、非货币贸易壁垒、货币操纵、针对美国公司不公平且不合理的诉讼等。 同一天，特朗普还表示，对不在美国生产的手机制造商征收25%的关税，将在6月底前对苹果公司和三 星征收关税。 受关税消息冲击，上周五标普500指数收跌0.67%，报5802.82点，连续四天下跌；纳指跌1%，报 18737.21点；道指跌0.61%，报41603.07点。 不过，目前有限的跌幅显示，市场目前并不完全相信美国会在6月1日对欧盟加征50%的关税，"朝令夕 改"的关税政策仍充满不确定性，市场仍在观望这些威胁落地的可能性。 不确定性高悬 面临关税不确定性，美国经济笼罩在滞胀阴霾下，9月前美联储或不会下调利率。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，政策制定者 ...