1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 27, 2025, the stock indices fluctuated throughout the day and closed nearly flat. The total market turnover was 1.70 trillion yuan, a decrease of 93.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to weak incremental policy signals recently, the upward momentum of the stock indices has weakened. With the influence of the overseas Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the risk of AI investment bubbles, the willingness of funds to take profits and leave temporarily has increased, and market sentiment has declined compared to before. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October 2025 was 1.9%, with a slowdown in growth rate. Considering the weakening of consumption and investment data in October, there are still strong expectations for policy benefits in the future, and the inflow trend of long - term funds remains unchanged, so the stock indices have strong support. - In general, with the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, the current market main trend is unclear, and the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread strategy can be considered after a significant correction of the stock indices [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Option Indicators - On November 27, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.06% to 3.112; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.09% to 4.622; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.21% to 4.768; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.05% to 4515.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.12% to 7257.45; 500ETF (SSE) fell 0.21% to 7.050; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.28% to 2.817; the GEM ETF fell 0.50% to 3.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.36% to 3.358; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.02% to 2972.27; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.22% to 1.38; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.30% to 1.34 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 92.73 (previous day: 89.94), and the open - interest PCR was 100.17 (previous day: 100.08) [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 was 12.49%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.36% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [21]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [73]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [86]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Included charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [98]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [137]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [147].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

Market Performance - Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty reached new lifetime highs during intra-day trade, closing slightly higher due to positive global trends and expectations of a US Fed rate cut [1][6] - The BSE Sensex increased by 110.87 points or 0.13% to close at 85,720.38, hitting a record high of 86,055.86 during the day, which is a rise of 446.35 points or 0.52% [2] - The NSE Nifty ended up by 10.25 points or 0.04% at 26,215.55, with an intra-day peak of 26,310.45, reflecting a gain of 105.15 points or 0.40% [3] Sector Performance - Major gainers among Sensex firms included Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech, and HDFC Bank [3] - Conversely, Maruti, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, and State Bank of India were identified as laggards [4] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth ₹4,778.03 crore on Wednesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth ₹6,247.93 crore in the previous trade [4] Global Market Influence - The Indian markets were buoyed by improved global risk appetite, driven by rising expectations of an interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which provided a strong tailwind for domestic markets [6] - Brent crude oil prices slightly decreased by 0.05% to $63.10 per barrel [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a 13-month high, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a more stable outlook for Sino-US relations [2][3][5]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since November 21, the yuan has appreciated from around 7.11 to approximately 7.07 against the dollar, with the central bank's mid-point rate rising to 7.0779 on November 27, the highest since October 14, 2024 [2]. - On November 26, the offshore yuan broke below 7.07, indicating a significant strengthening of the currency [2][3]. Federal Reserve Influence - The market's expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to over 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The dollar index fell below 100, trading around 99.6, reflecting a broader trend of weakening for the dollar [3]. Sino-US Relations - Optimism regarding the stability of Sino-US relations has contributed to the yuan's strength, as market participants perceive reduced external uncertainties for the Chinese economy [3][5]. Economic Fundamentals - Analysts suggest that previous counter-cyclical policies will support the Chinese economy, making it likely to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, which in turn supports the yuan's exchange rate [5][6]. - The yuan's recent appreciation is primarily driven by market forces, with a closer alignment between the central bank's mid-point rate and market prices [5][6]. Corporate Demand for Currency Exchange - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange is seen as a key factor supporting the yuan's exchange rate, particularly as the fourth quarter is a seasonal peak for such demand [6]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China issued 450 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong to manage offshore liquidity, which is viewed as a stabilizing measure for the yuan's exchange rate [6]. - Some analysts believe that the central bank's actions are part of a broader strategy to promote the internationalization of the yuan [6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, if the Chinese government implements strong stimulus policies, the yuan could continue to appreciate, with predictions suggesting a potential exchange rate of 6.95 by the end of 2026 [7]. - The long-term outlook for the yuan remains positive, supported by domestic economic fundamentals and a favorable external environment [7].

Market Overview - On November 27, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3895 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26 points, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 12875.19 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,233 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[7] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, electronic components, batteries, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, while the pharmaceutical, cultural media, gaming, and internet services sectors lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in paper printing, batteries, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic equipment[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.86 times and 47.74 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The trading volume is above the median daily trading volume of the last three years, indicating a robust market activity[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a potential rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid chasing highs or lows, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery delays, and international relations affecting the economic environment[4]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：国泰基金微幸福） 进入 2025 年四季度，黄金市场告别了 8-10 月急速上行、屡创新高的强势行情，在多空力量博弈加剧、 市场分歧持续扩大的背景下，价格波动幅度显著加大，整体围绕 4000 美元 / 盎司关口呈现区间震荡态 势。 从本周表现来看，金价在震荡格局中迎来小幅抬升，伦敦金现盘中价格一度触及4173美元/盎司，创近 两周新高，今日虽有小幅回落但整体仍维持在高位区间运行，短期震荡上行的格局未发生根本改变。 近期黄金为什么涨？ 近期金价上涨是美联储降息预期升温、流动性改善与地缘政治风险抬头多重因素共振的结果。 目前市场正在加大对美联储12月议息会议进一步降息的押注。根据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 储12月降息25个基点的概率已由一周前的32%上升至85%。 降息预期的抬升一是受联储相关官员表态的影响。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五表态称，在劳动力市场 疲软的背景下，他预见"近期"存在降息空间；美联储理事米兰也表示，当前就业形势要求大幅降息。 另外，美联储周三公布的经济景气状况褐皮书报告显示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，但整体消费者 支出进一步下滑；就业方面，约半数地区劳动力需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which support the rise in precious metals prices [4]. - As of November 27, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 941.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.16 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 947.16 yuan per gram [3]. - The international gold price increased by 0.79%, closing at 4162.35 USD per ounce, with a peak of 4173 USD [5]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that economic activity has remained stable, with some regions reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting a risk of economic slowdown in the coming months [3]. - The U.S. job market shows improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, which is below the expected 225,000 [3]. - The medium to long-term bullish trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with potential to rise above 4200 USD after breaking previous resistance levels [6].

Group 1 - The global stock market is recovering as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, and concerns over an AI bubble have subsided [1] - The UK budget report revealed a fiscal buffer increase to £22 billion and a significant GDP growth downgrade to 1.4% for 2026, causing volatility in the GBP [1] - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the GBP, suggesting that the currency's appeal is diminishing due to a lack of local economic drivers and a near-zero correlation with the stock market [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.2% at 50,167.10 points, while the Korean Composite Index rose 0.7% [5] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remained stable at 1.3245, and the US dollar index was flat at 99.596 [5] - Silver prices increased by nearly 0.7% to $53.69 per ounce, while gold prices fell by 0.05% to $4,151.69 per ounce [5] Group 3 - The Japanese yen remains weak despite verbal intervention from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, trading at 156.22 against the US dollar [8] - Oil prices have slightly declined as the market awaits developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [10]

新华财经北京11月27日电周三（11月26日），国际金价小幅震荡攀高，日K线呈现小阳线形态，继续逼 近4200美元关口。当日金价开盘4131.67美元，最高4173.34美元，最低4129.44美元，收盘报4163.58美 元，全天波幅43.90美元，上涨33.33美元，涨幅0.81%。 但要注意的是，随着美国感恩节假期的来临，市场整体交投相对清淡，金价波动幅度受限。当前美国推 迟披露的经济数据表现疲弱，以及美联储官员的鸽派言论，仍是支撑金价的主要利多。 技术上看，当前金价自4381的历史高点以来的调整格局进入第6周，价格波动幅度逐渐收窄，重点关注 金价回落的机会。 短期走势方面，目前金价仍处于向上冲击布林带上轨4210美元一线阻力的过程之中。从均线系统形态来 分析，金价的短期均线经过前期的相互缠绕，目前逐渐理顺，呈现多头排列状态，金价从4115美元的5 日均线开始，下方大约15美元的间隔位置，都存在均线的支持，限制了金价短期内大幅回落的空间。 综合判断，短期金价虽然处于修正期，但是目前依然处于冲击布林带上轨4210美元的过程之中，然而， 受美国假期临近影响，波动幅度受限。预计4177–4210美元区域依然是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a short-term bullish trend driven by multiple favorable factors, but it is facing critical technical resistance levels. Group 1: Influencing Factors - The market has significantly increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to approximately 85%, following dovish comments from several Fed officials [2] - U.S. retail sales data for September fell short of expectations, and the consumer confidence index declined, indicating potential economic cooling [2] - The U.S. dollar index has dropped to a one-week low, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains near a one-month low [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are encountering trendline resistance around the $4173-$4175 range, leading to a consolidation phase after a recent spike in this area [4] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy leans towards a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended if prices rebound to the $4170-$4175 range, targeting $4150-$4130 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - If support is found in the $4130-$4140 range, a long position may be considered, targeting $4150-$4160 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - A strong breakdown below the $4130 support could lead to further declines towards $4110-$4100, while a strong breakout above $4175 could push prices towards $4185 or even $4200 [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on November 27 will lead to a market closure, resulting in significantly reduced liquidity and potentially increased volatility, with major price movements expected primarily during the Asian and European trading sessions [6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the bullish logic for gold remains intact, supported by the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases and the overarching direction of Fed rate cuts, suggesting a strategy of "buying on dips" [7]