Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]

期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the industrial metal sector is experiencing price increases due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with specific impacts on copper, aluminum, and zinc prices [1] - Copper prices are influenced by the U.S. Section 232 investigation into copper imports, leading traders to ship record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant inventory shortage outside the U.S. [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with spot prices reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices are benefiting from supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [1] - Zinc prices are showing strength due to ongoing depletion of LME inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are tightening, with expectations of reduced copper smelting and processing fees potentially leading to production cuts, indicating strong medium to long-term price support [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 1.3%, tracking the performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sub-sectors including precious and rare metals [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider related ETF products such as Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The weakening US dollar index has led to a strong rise in Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance in the spot market is poor, and spot premiums have further declined. The expected increase in the Fed's interest rate cuts has slightly weakened the spot price of alumina, and smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. Consumption is showing marginal weakness, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, weekly production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6]. Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,635 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar index has pushed up Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance is poor, and spot premiums have declined. The expected Fed rate cuts have slightly weakened alumina prices, expanding smelting profits. Supply is stable, and there is no significant impact from the Middle - East crisis on Iranian electrolytic aluminum. Consumption is weakening marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July, but the inventory level is still low historically [3]. Alumina Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3,075 yuan/ton, 3,080 yuan/ton, and 3,180 yuan/ton respectively, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 2,945 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous trading day. The alumina social inventory is rising, and the current alumina warehouse receipt is 21,000 tons, with the 07 - contract position at 51,000 tons [2][5]. Market Analysis - The cost of bauxite is stable, with the 3rd - quarter long - term contract price of Guinea's mainstream bauxite miners at 74 - 75 US dollars/ton, similar to the 2nd quarter. Alumina producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the purchase prices of Baotai's civil and mechanical raw aluminum were 15,300 yuan/ton and 15,400 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 price was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total aluminum alloy inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 21,000 tons [2]. Market Analysis - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6].

Group 1: Latest Gold Price Dynamics - The current gold prices as of July 1 show significant increases, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 CNY/gram, Chow Tai Fook at 998 CNY/gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 995 CNY/gram, reflecting a daily increase of 15 CNY, 9 CNY, and 11 CNY respectively [1] - Compared to June 30, there was a notable rebound after a drop of 50 CNY in mid-June [1] Group 2: International Gold Price Movement - The spot gold price is reported at 3321.53 USD/ounce, showing an increase of 0.57%, while COMEX gold futures are at 3333.3 USD/ounce, up by 0.77% [2] Group 3: Reasons for Price Increase - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by pressure from Trump, have weakened the USD, enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - A significant 95% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, with China purchasing 244 tons in Q1, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] - Renewed demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties has led to a return of funds into gold [6] - A technical rebound occurred after gold prices fell below 3300 USD, triggering algorithmic buying [7] Group 4: Consumer and Market Reactions - Investors are showing a strong willingness to cash out at high prices, with notable transactions such as a man in Wenzhou selling 8 kg of gold for a profit of 3.12 million CNY [8] - Essential consumers are shifting towards smaller gold jewelry or rental models, with increased sensitivity to processing fees, while demand for traditional wedding gold has decreased [8] - There is a segment of the market waiting for a price correction to 600-700 CNY/gram, perceiving current prices as inflated [8] Group 5: Practical Recommendations - For essential purchases, it is advisable to choose markets like Shenzhen Shui Bei with lower processing fees or bank gold bars with a premium of about 3% [13] - Non-essential buyers should monitor the technical support level at 3250 USD, with potential declines to 3100 USD [13] - It is recommended to keep physical gold as 5%-10% of household assets and consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs [13]

Group 1 - The black metal sector is experiencing a compression in steel mill profits, with rebar prices being driven up by raw material fluctuations [1] - Current trading logic includes acceptable steel mill profitability, short-term strong pig iron output, and a decline in raw material supply leading to a rebound, while seasonal steel demand is weakening [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the upcoming vote on a new fiscal bill are increasing market sentiment towards dual easing in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Rebar price expectations remain stable, with inventory levels low and limited expectations for significant accumulation in the future [1] - The acceleration of special bond issuance in June is noted, but the allocation towards practical work funds is decreasing, and real estate sales are weakening [1] - Attention is required on the July Politburo meeting for potential new policy stimuli for the real estate sector, with cautious outlooks on rebar prices and rebound heights [1] Group 3 - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown a recent increase in year-on-year demand, but there are expectations of weakening in reality, leading to a contraction in the price difference between hot and cold rolled products [1] - The steel mills are experiencing weaker order intake, with exports increasing year-on-year, but a significant decline in June exports is anticipated [1] - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but demand expectations remain under pressure [1] Group 4 - Iron ore prices are showing strength due to seasonal declines in shipments expected in July and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Global shipments and arrivals have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, while iron water output remains stable with strong profit margins for blast furnaces [1] - The trading strategy suggests a gradual shift to short positions after a rebound, with resistance levels for the September contract noted at 720-740 yuan and support levels at 680 yuan and 640-650 yuan [1]

一、现货黄金基本面： 1.避险需求方面：6月23日凌晨，以色列中部多地响起防空警报，胡塞武装声称对以色列发动导弹袭击。23日早，有消息称伊朗支持的组织正准备袭击美国 在伊拉克和叙利亚的基地，随后伊朗攻击了美军驻卡塔尔基地，还向巴林发射了导弹等。这些冲突事件使得中东地区局势的不确定性和紧张程度大幅上升。 不过，6月24日特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗同意停火，紧张局势有所缓和。这会使市场的避险情绪降温，对黄金的避险需求减少，金价面临回调压力。 2. 市场预期方面：中东战局的发展可能会对全球经济产生一定的影响，进而影响货币政策预期。例如，如果冲突持续升级，可能会导致石油等大宗商品价格 上涨，引发通胀预期上升，这将对黄金构成支撑。但如果冲突导致全球经济增长放缓，各国央行可能会采取宽松的货币政策来刺激经济，这也会对黄金有 利。然而，目前来看，虽然中东局势紧张，但市场对美联储货币政策的预期主要还是受美国国内经济数据的影响。6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，市场 对9月降息的预期从55%降至25%，导致美元指数反弹，压制了黄金的吸引力。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is undergoing subtle changes, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its interest rate cut expectations from a single cut in December to three cuts starting in September, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic environment and inflation trends [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that preliminary evidence suggests the impact of tariffs on inflation is less severe than previously expected, with May's personal consumption expenditure data showing an unexpected decline due to the fading effects of pre-tariff purchasing [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed would likely have begun cutting rates this year, indicating that tariffs have significantly raised inflation forecasts [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Market Expectations and Policy - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with 10 officials advocating for at least two cuts this year while 7 officials express concerns over persistent price pressures from tariffs [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintains a forecast for one cut this year and three cuts by 2026, emphasizing the gradual impact of tariffs on prices and the need for more information before making rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if tariffs remain around 10%, the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of 2025, contingent on the resolution of tariffs by July [5]. - Several investment banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, expect the Fed to cut rates three times in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting two additional cuts in 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline of the US dollar, which has led to a strong rebound in gold prices, marking a potential new trend in the market [1][3]. - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in 50 years, dropping over 10% in the first half of 2025, while gold has surged by 5.5% in the second quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [3][5]. - The upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data are expected to further influence gold prices, with historical data suggesting that lower non-farm payroll numbers could lead to substantial gains in gold [1][3]. Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including expansive fiscal policies leading to increased national debt and concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal health [7]. - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves by 30% year-on-year, providing structural support for gold prices amid rising demand [7]. - Market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also driving gold prices higher, with predictions of multiple rate cuts in the coming year [7]. Group 3 - The second quarter's performance of gold, with a 5.5% increase, breaks the typical seasonal volatility patterns, reflecting strong market reactions to global economic uncertainties and the weakening dollar [5][6]. - The investment strategies that contributed to gold's performance include geopolitical tensions, interest rate cut bets, and opportunistic trading in response to the dollar's decline [4]. - Historical data indicates that significant economic data releases can lead to notable price fluctuations in gold, creating trading opportunities for investors [8].