新华财经纽约5月7日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对美联储降息的预期降温，7日美元兑除瑞士法郎以外 的一揽子货币走高，美元指数在隔夜市场和当日上午走强，当日午后涨幅显著扩大，尾盘时美元指数明 显上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.43%，在汇市尾市收于99.665。 美国联邦储备委员会7日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储在当日表示，经济前景的不确定性已经进一步增加。美联储公开市场委员会关注就业和物价稳定 两个方面的风险，认为失业率上升和通胀走高的风险已经上升。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）在7日下午5:07分公布的数据显示，美联储到2025 年6月份议息会议时把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变的概率从前一日的68.8%升至 80.1%。 麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·阿尔伯特·维兹曼（ThierryAlbertWizman）表示，关税对通胀影响 的不确定性，以及通胀预期上升的长期影响，迫使美联储公开市场委员会劝阻交易员不要假设未来会大 幅降息。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1. ...

美元指数DXY日内涨幅达0.50%，现报99.77。 ...

美元指数DXY短线上扬15点，现报99.49。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy while the RMB maintains resilience in both domestic and offshore markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates is expected to support the stable development of the Chinese economy, contributing to the resilience of the RMB exchange rate [1]. - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield remained stable at around 1.64%, keeping the China-U.S. interest rate differential at approximately -268 basis points, which has deterred speculative capital from shorting the offshore RMB [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The offshore RMB exchange rate showed limited volatility, with fluctuations of less than 200 basis points, indicating a calm market response to the monetary policy changes [3]. - Following the announcement, the offshore RMB rate initially fell from 7.188 to 7.229 but stabilized thereafter, reflecting a lack of strong short-selling interest from overseas speculators [4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $41 billion in April, reaching $3.2817 trillion, which has contributed to the RMB's resilience against short-selling pressures [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index from 104.3 to 99.6, enhancing the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the potential for downward pressure on the RMB from the monetary policy adjustments, the ample foreign exchange reserves provide strong support against depreciation, deterring speculative short-selling [7]. - The RMB is expected to remain stable around the 7.2 level, influenced by the ongoing strength of the Asia-Pacific currencies and the negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [2][7].

每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜张益铭 5月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年4月末，我国外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%。 专家指出，按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外储规模都处于适度充裕水平。短期内美元指数下行和全球金融市场下跌还将形成对冲效应，我 国外储规模有望保持基本稳定。这将为保持人民币汇率处于合理均衡水平提供坚实基础，成为抵御各类潜在外部冲击的压舱石。 2025年4月末，官方黄金储备连续第6个月增加。专家分析，在国际金价大幅上行，迭创历史新高的背景下，近期央行持续增持黄金，主要原因是全球政治、 经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。 温彬接着指出，4月的中央政治局会议提出要"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"。5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会迅速落实政治局会议工作部署，联合推出"一揽子"金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，国内宏观经济将在政策的大力支持下延续 稳中向好态势，为国际收支保持整体平衡和外汇储备规模保持基本稳定奠定坚实基础。 王青指出，按不同标准测算，当 ...

截至目前，我国外汇储备规模已经连续17个月稳定在3.2万亿美元以上。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者 表示，4月份外汇储备规模较大幅度上升，主要受当月美元指数大幅下跌带动。按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的 外汇储备规模处于适度充裕水平。短期内美元指数下行和全球金融市场下跌还将形成对冲效应，我国外汇储备规模有望保持基 本稳定。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，4月份，国际金融市场剧烈波动，美元快速贬值，全球资产价格涨 跌不一。在汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用下，我国外汇储备规模上升。 本报记者 韩昱 5月7日，国家外汇管理局（以下简称"外汇局"）公布2025年4月末外汇储备规模数据。截至2025年4月末，我国外汇储备规 模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%。 外汇局表示，2025年4月份，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌 互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 温彬表示，长期来看，我国全产业链优势无可替代、商品国际竞争力强，出口将持续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作 ...

技术面显示，黄金早间剧烈波动符合近期凌晨洗盘特征，但需警惕连续慢涨后出现大幅回落，或为多头动能衰竭信号。若日内无 法有效突破3404分水岭，则短线见顶概率将进一步上升。操作层面，建议投资者避免盲目追高，重点关注美联储决议对实际利率 及美元的影响，若决议偏鸽则黄金或延续反弹，偏鹰则需警惕回调风险。目前上方阻力在3397-3407。下方支撑在3360-3350，操 作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 国际地缘局势骤然升温，市场避险情绪再度推高黄金价格，但今晚美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话将成为多空博弈的关键节点。当 前美元指数维持99.3附近震荡，暂未显现明确方向，市场对决议结果分歧显著。黄金昨日以光头阳线强势突破3437关口，但今日 早盘突发跳水，最低触及3360，跌幅达77点，随后反抽至3404附近，形成短线重要阻力位。 操作策略2：建议反弹3414-3419空，损3426，目标看3380-3350。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。本人徐老师解读世界经济体 制，全面剖析海内外交易品种，重点把握第一时间重要财经基本面的解说，引领投资者正确导向，投资是一 ...

中信证券研报认为，近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈 判预期的升温等有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中 枢双向波动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出 口基本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对于 人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经济数据 持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投资者对于非 美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.59% to 99.237, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from Europe and the election of a new German Chancellor [2] - The Eurozone's composite PMI for April was reported at 50.4, slightly above the initial estimate of 50.1 but below March's 50.9 [2] - The UK’s composite PMI for April was 48.5, higher than the initial estimate of 48.2 but lower than March's 51.5 [2] Group 2 - The US trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, exceeding market expectations and significantly higher than the previous year's $68.6 billion [3] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, with 1 euro exchanging for 1.1371 dollars, up from 1.1313 dollars in the previous trading day [3] - The dollar weakened against several currencies, including a drop to 142.45 yen from 143.92 yen and to 0.8217 Swiss francs from 0.8229 [3]