Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term performance of cotton may be stable with a slight upward trend, but as prices rise, it may face pre - hedging pressure from new cotton. The overall market atmosphere is warm due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and potential domestic stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which supports commodity prices [3][36]. 3. Summary by Section First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes**: From August 15th to August 24th, the CRB commodity price index rose by 4.46 points to 300 points; ICE cotton futures' December contract rose 0.52 cents/lb to 68 cents/lb, a 0.77% increase. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures (01) closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7,288 lots in positions to 485,000 lots. Domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, with CCI3128 rising from 15,216 yuan/ton to 15,243 yuan/ton [2][10][11]. - **Imported Cotton Quotes**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton at major ports increased, with the quotes of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M rising by 0.7 cents/lb [9]. Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 24th, compared with August 15th, the price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose rose by 214 yuan/ton, CCI3128 rose by 82 yuan/ton, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 90 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: Domestic yarn prices rose, while the prices of imported cotton yarn in RMB and foreign yarn prices declined. The domestic - foreign yarn price spread narrowed [18][20][21]. - **Cotton Price Comparison**: On August 24th, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,243 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 948 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [25]. Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 24th, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 7,198 lots (336,000 tons), and the effective forecasts were 63 lots. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 312,000 tons, down from 347,000 tons on August 15th [30]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On August 24th, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,213 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with August 15th [32]. - **Price Analysis**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and the domestic market may introduce favorable policies in the fourth quarter. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historically low level, and the downstream market is in a benign operation. Technically, the indicators of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton weakened [33][34][39]. Fourth Part: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: From August 8th - 14th, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 56% compared with the previous week, and the shipment decreased by 32%. There was no signing of next - year's upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [43]. - **ICE Cotton Futures**: On August 24th, the main December contract of ICE cotton futures was 68 cents/lb, up 0.52 cents/lb from August 15th, with a 0.77% increase. Technically, the indicators strengthened [47]. Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when raw material prices fall, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, Trump threatened economic sanctions on Russia and Ukraine if they don't talk, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when prices decline [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of spot Shanghai Gold T+D was 773.40, down 1.72 from the previous day and 4.26 from the previous week; the closing price of the futures active contract was 9192.00, up 30.00 from the previous day and down 66.00 from the previous week. The closing price of London Gold Spot was 3334.25 dollars/ounce, down 4.05 from the previous day and 9.60 from the previous week. The closing price of London Silver Spot was 38.01 dollars/ounce, up 0.44 from the previous day and down 0.31 from the previous week [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai Gold T+D on August 22, 2025, was 21306.00, down 918.00 from the previous day and up 2276.00 from the previous week. The open interest of the futures active contract was 303690.00, down 3408.00 from the previous day and 47052.00 from the previous week [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (spot - futures) of gold on August 22, 2025, was - 1.77, up 1.69 from the previous day and 1.09 from the previous week. The spread (near - far) of gold was - 16.00, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.00 from the previous week [1] Important Information - **Fed and Interest Rates**: Wall Street Journal reporter Mick Timiraos said that Powell signaled a September rate cut while suggesting the market should not expect aggressive easing. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in mainly short - term Treasury bonds in Q3 to replenish the cash account, and the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. US inflation data in July increased, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] - **International Politics**: Trump said that if the leaders of Russia and Ukraine don't hold a direct meeting within two weeks, he will make "very important decisions", possibly "large - scale sanctions or tariffs" [1] - **Global Central Banks**: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1] Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to lay out long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: London Gold has support around 3200 - 3300 and resistance around 3400 - 3500; Shanghai Gold has support around 760 - 770 and resistance around 800 - 810; London Silver has support around 34 - 36 and resistance around 37 - 40; Shanghai Silver has support around 8500 - 8700 and resistance around 9100 - 9500 [1]

上周五鲍威尔放鸽后，市场押注9月降息概率升高至84%，提振亚太股市表现。但欧美股指期货稍有回调，表明市场谨慎对待本周的关键 事件和经济数据，包括周三公布的英伟达财报，周五公布的美国7月通胀数据等。 8月25日周一，美股期货跌超0.1%，欧股低开，亚洲股市走高。美元小涨0.1%结束三周连跌，美债收益率微升，黄金微跌，原油微涨。以 下为核心资产走势： 美股期货下跌，标普500指数期货，纳指100期货，道指期货均跌超0.1%。 欧股低开，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘跌0.4%，德股跌0.6%，法股跌0.3%，英国股市因假期休市。 日经225指数收涨0.4%。日本东证指数收涨0.1%。韩国首尔综指收盘涨1.3%。 美债收益率普涨，2年期和10年期美债收益率均上行不足1个基点。 美元指数涨约0.1%。日元跌超0.2%。英镑跌超0.1%。加元、欧元、瑞士法郎跌不足0.1%。 现货黄金跌超0.1%至3370美元下方，现货白银涨约0.1%。 美油小幅上涨0.08%至63.70美元上方。布油涨约0.06%至67.75美元上方。 比特币24小时跌幅超2.6%，以太坊24小时跌幅超3%。 亚洲股市，原油上涨 日股涨0.4%，韩股涨1.3 ...

周一（8月25日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微跌，目前交投于3369.21美元/盎司附近。上周五金价大涨 1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69美元/盎司，收报3371.78美元/盎司，因美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森 霍尔年度央行研讨会上的讲话，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场对通胀的担忧，同时点燃了投资者对9月 降息的热切期待。这不仅推动金价强势反弹，更让美元汇率大幅下挫，黄金市场迎来新一轮看涨浪潮。 尽管亚洲实物需求仍显低迷，但华尔街专业分析师和普通投资者均对黄金前景充满信心。 特朗普过去多次批评鲍威尔降息过慢，并暗示其任期结束后将任命更鸽派继任者，这加剧了市场波动。 在债市方面，上周五美国两年期公债收益率大跌10.2个基点至3.69%，创逾一周低点，而10年期收益率 下跌7.2个基点至4.259%。两年期与10年期收益率曲线差距扩大至58.1个基点，为7月中以来最陡峭水 平，这反映出交易员对短期降息的强烈预期。债市收益率的下挫降低了持有黄金的机会成本，使其在低 利率环境中更具吸引力，美国银行经济学家报告强调，现在阻止9月降息的责任落在了数据身上。鲍威 尔鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的转折点，推动金价反弹、美元走弱和债市调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is interpreted as a signal for potential interest rate cuts, which has led to a significant rally in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Powell's hints at rate cuts, U.S. stocks surged, with the Dow Jones achieving a record high [1] - Prior to this rally, the U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index falling for five consecutive days [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Sun Wu, Chief Financial Market Analyst at MUFG Bank (China), indicated that the Jackson Hole meeting has ushered in a "loose monetary policy" sentiment, enhancing expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - The combination of technical pullbacks and macroeconomic uncertainties contributes to an increased risk of market retracement [1] - The recent pullback in U.S. tech stocks has triggered a reallocation strategy, suggesting a shift towards diversified investment approaches [1]

整体来看，鲍威尔鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的转折点，推动金价反弹、美元走弱和债市调整，营造出有利于贵金属的宏观环境。尽管短期内需警惕数据波动 和地缘政治风险，如特朗普对美联储的干预，但降息预期的强化让黄金的投资价值显著提升。本周交易者将关注美国GDP及PCE数据，另外继续留意美联储 官员讲话。 技术面： 基本面： 周一（8月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金开盘后小幅回吐上周五部分涨幅，目前暂交投于3363美元附近。上周五金价大涨1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69 美元/盎司，收报3371.78美元/盎司，因美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔年度央行研讨会上的讲话，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场对通胀的担忧，同时点燃了 投资者对9月降息的热切期待。这不仅推动金价强势反弹，更让美元汇率大幅下挫，尽管亚洲实物需求仍显低迷，但华尔街专业分析师和普通投资者均对黄 金前景充满信心。 在债市方面，上周五美国两年期公债收益率大跌10.2个基点至3.69%，创逾一周低点，而10年期收益率下跌7.2个基点至4.259%。两年期与10年期收益率曲线 差距扩大至58.1个基点，为7月中以来最陡峭水平，这反映出交易员对短期降息的强烈预期。债市收益率 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures was under pressure. The US economic data recovery, inflation concerns, and the Fed officials' suppression of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar, dragging down lead prices, but Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting improved interest - rate cut expectations and boosted lead prices [2][7][8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates remained tight, and the raw material inventory of electrolytic lead smelters in Henan and Hunan was low. Electrolytic lead showed a pattern of co - existence of reduction and resumption of production. The profit of secondary lead smelters was poor, and some reduced production due to losses. The battery consumption did not improve significantly, and the peak - season effect was insufficient [2][7][8]. - Overall, the interest - rate cut expectations improved, but the fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. Supply was regionally tight, but consumption was lackluster, and inventories remained at a relatively high level. The LME inventory increase trend continued, putting pressure on lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and the inversion of refined and secondary lead prices provides some support [2][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 15th to August 22nd, the SHFE lead price decreased from 16,850 yuan/ton to 16,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the LME lead price increased from 1,981 dollars/ton to 1,992 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.51 to 8.42, a decrease of 0.08; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,154 tons to 63,690 tons; the LME inventory increased by 11,950 tons to 273,050 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 155 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures continued to be under pressure and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 16,780 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.42%. The LME lead price was weak due to the rising US dollar and inventory increase, but finally closed at 1,992 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.56% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22nd, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the spot market trading was light [6]. - As of August 22nd, the LME weekly inventory was 273,050 tons, an increase of 11,950 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63,690 tons, a decrease of 1,154 tons. As of August 21st, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous Thursday [7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22nd, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal degree, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous period; the average imported ore processing fee was - 90 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton [9]. - In July, the import volume of lead concentrates was 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.59% and a year - on - year increase of 28.35%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 793,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The export volume of refined lead and lead alloys in July was 4,199 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04%, and the import volume of refined lead and lead products was 16,317 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.1% [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][15][18][19][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has led to an increase in gold prices, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes [1] - The long-term outlook suggests a clear trend of weakening dollar credibility, with expectations for a sustained increase in gold price levels [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry is showing strengthening fundamental support, with price upward momentum expected to remain strong [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which focuses on gold mining, smelting, and processing sales, covering both A-share and Hong Kong markets [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index features a mid-to-small market capitalization style while also incorporating leading companies, providing a comprehensive reflection of the overall performance of listed companies in the gold industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link A (021673) and Link C (021674) [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish remarks may strengthen interest rate cut expectations, emphasizing the importance of asset direction sustainability [6][8] - The global stock markets mostly rose, with A-shares leading, while major commodity futures such as oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also increased [6][8] - The U.S. labor market appears balanced but carries rising hidden risks, with Powell indicating that the unemployment rate, although slightly up to 4.2%, remains at a historically low level [11][12] Group 2: Company Reports - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) is experiencing steady growth in its core traditional Chinese medicine business, with successful procurement outcomes for its flagship products [17][20] - Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285) reported a revenue of 2.099 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.14%, driven by both internal development and external expansion [21][24] - Yangjie Technology (300373) achieved a revenue of 3.455 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.58%, with significant contributions from automotive electronics and AI server sectors [26][30] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic equity market showed a strong performance, with a daily average trading volume of 25.477 billion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [7][33] - The semiconductor sector led the market with a 7.66% increase, while defensive sectors like agriculture and consumer goods faced declines [37] - The overall market is expected to maintain upward momentum, with significant inflows of large capital into growth sectors [33][34]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]