特朗普：关税信函就是贸易协议内容。 ...

特朗普：共和党在参议院关于关税问题上行动强硬。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is likely to weaken significantly by the end of the year due to underwhelming economic growth in the Eurozone, despite current market expectations being more favorable than those for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Growth Expectations - Market expectations for Eurozone growth are currently better than those for the U.S. [1] - The company anticipates that even if the U.S. does not impose the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports, these growth expectations will still not be met [1] Fiscal Policy Impact - The company believes that loose fiscal policies will boost economic growth in Germany [1] - However, the overall impact of fiscal policy on the Eurozone is expected to be neutral [1] Tariff Effects - The macroeconomic research firm predicts that the impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth will be relatively mild [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican peso has fallen to an intraday low, hovering around 18.70 pesos per dollar, following Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso's depreciation indicates market reaction to geopolitical tensions and potential trade policy changes [1] - The specific exchange rate of 1 dollar to 18.70 pesos reflects significant currency volatility [1] - Trump's tariff threat represents a potential shift in U.S.-Mexico trade relations, impacting investor sentiment [1]

丹麦外交大臣：欧盟成员国认为特朗普威胁征收的30%关税"绝对不能接受"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists report that tariffs may have increased prices for goods with supply chains extending overseas, such as home goods, entertainment, and communication products [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Last month, airfare prices may have rebounded, but Goldman Sachs predicts that due to expected declines in used car prices and stable new car prices, the overall core inflation rate for June may be approximately 0.23% month-on-month [1] - The team anticipates that the monthly inflation rate for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will range between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to the potential severe impacts of tariffs [1]

美联储哈玛克：我们不确定关税会有什么影响。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：尚未看到高盛关于关税的报告。 ...

曾令投资者在4月惊慌失措的"特朗普关税噩梦"——价格飙升、货架空空、供应链混乱、经济衰退—— 至今尚未成真。而即便美方在全球贸易谈判中反复无常，金融市场却开始显得愈发淡定。 然而本周，随着摩根大通(JPM.N)与奈飞(NFLX.O)等巨头率先披露二季度财报，投资者的"新淡定"情绪 将迎来首次真正考验，更多企业高管也将在财报会上分享他们对经济和贸易环境的判断。 Aptus Capital Advisors的股票主管兼投资经理Dave Wagner表示，这些财报也将是对新关税影响的"第一 次真实测试"，因为这些影响尚未反映在第一季度的数据中。 在过去三个月，分析师下调企业盈利预期的幅度略高于往常，原因正是越来越多的企业对全球贸易环境 的不确定性持谨慎态度。同时，另一个华尔街关注重点——利润率——也预计会出现环比下滑。 根据FactSet数据，市场预计标普500成分股公司第二季度每股盈利将同比增长4.8%，为自2023年第四季 度以来最低增幅；净利润率预计为12.2%，低于第一季度的12.7%，但与去年同期持平，仍高于五年平 均值11.8%。 多家公司已发出预警：沃尔玛(WMT.N)和美泰(MAT.O)指出关税将推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main supporting factors for the market include declining interest rates, strong employment, and high profitability of large enterprises [1][6][7] Group 1: Market Performance - Cross-border US stock ETFs listed in China have returned to historical highs, with the Nasdaq ETF and US 50 ETF net values reported at 2.039 and 1.3 respectively [1] - The performance of domestic ETFs is closely aligned with recent trends in US stocks, particularly driven by technology giants [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for US stocks, predicting a 12-month point forecast of 6900, up from 6500 [1][6] Group 2: Tariff Impact - There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on US corporate profits and inflation, with recent data showing that tariff revenues have increased without a corresponding rise in inflation [1][4] - Morgan Stanley indicates that some sectors are experiencing deflationary signs, as companies may consider lowering prices instead of raising them due to high inventory levels [4][5] - The increase in tariffs has not yet translated into higher consumer prices, partly because companies are still selling old inventory purchased before the tariffs were announced [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.6% and 1.2% over the next two years [6] - The labor market remains strong, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in the next 12 months [6] - The strong earnings growth of the S&P 500, particularly from the "Tech Seven," has been a key source of resilience in the market, with a year-on-year EPS growth of 12% in Q1 [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Concerns remain regarding the future of US stocks, particularly with the elevated forward P/E ratio of 22, which is at the 97th percentile since 1980 [6][7] - The main uncertainty lies in how effectively companies can pass on tariff costs to consumers, which could impact profit margins and future earnings growth [7] - If companies maintain expansionary profit margins and benefit from fiscal stimulus, earnings growth may exceed expectations [7]