President Trump responded to China's expansion of export controls for a large swath of its rare earth supply chain with threats of retaliation of a "massive†increase in tariffs. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The industries covered in the report are classified as follows according to the outlook provided: - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to "oscillate" [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [10]. - **Pigs**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to "oscillate" [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to "oscillate within a range" [16]. - **Cotton**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [17]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [19]. - **Pulp**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to "oscillate" [21]. - **Logs**: Expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [23]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil led the rise in the oil market yesterday. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report. The main bullish factors include the expected positive impact of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased consumption of palm oil by biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil gradually entering the production - reduction season, continued reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: After the holiday, the spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated at a low level. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient. In the international market, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are likely to continue oscillating [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: With the arrival of the new grain selling pressure, the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, there may be a slight rebound due to tight inventory, but in the long term, the market is expected to be "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and pig prices are falling. In the short term, the pig market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to whether the new - year production increase is less than expected and changes in macro - trade negotiations [17]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, the price is in a bearish pattern [19]. - **Pulp**: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. The market supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - **Logs**: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil led the rise yesterday. Due to factors such as the rebound of US soybeans and soybean oil, Indonesia's planned biodiesel B50 policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in September, the domestic oil market was boosted. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are expected to oscillate. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: New grain selling pressure is emerging, and the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, inventory is tight, and there may be a slight rebound, while in the long term, the market is "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, consumption decreased, and pig prices fell. In the short term, the market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to production and trade negotiation changes [17]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, it is in a bearish pattern [19]. - **Pulp**: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. Supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - **Logs**: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Oils and Fats, Protein Meal, Corn, Starch, Pigs, Cotton, Sugar, Pulp, Offset Paper, Logs**: The report lists relevant data for these varieties, such as prices, production, and inventory, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides a rating standard for the outlook of varieties, including definitions of "upward - biased", "oscillating with an upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a downward bias", "downward - biased", and explanations of the time period and standard deviation [180]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87% [182]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: On October 9, 2025, the index was 937.50, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 1.42%, a 1 - month decline of 3.48%, and a year - to - date decline of 1.80% [184].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Grease Market Review: Positive Expectations from Indonesia's Biodiesel Policy, Palm Oil Leads the Grease Market" [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market outlook for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil is oscillating upward. Key positive factors include favorable expectations from Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased palm oil consumption for biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil entering the production - reduction season, continuous reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of reduced US soybean yield [5] 3. Summary by Directory Price Performance - Today, palm oil led the domestic grease market. The closing price change rate of palm oil's 01 contract was 4.13%, that of soybean oil's 01 contract was 2.69%, and that of rapeseed oil's 01 contract was 2.01% [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Market Analysis** - Palm oil led the grease market today due to the recent rebound of US soybeans and US soybean oil, Indonesia's plan to enforce the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September [4] - Macroeconomic environment: The US federal government is in a "shutdown" state, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties are increasing. The US dollar has been strengthening recently, and crude oil prices are fluctuating [4] - US soybeans: Affected by the US government shutdown, recent US soybean data updates have been suspended. Considering the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and weather conditions this year, there is a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield and production in the later period. The market hopes for a package of assistance plans for farmers from the US government and demand improvement. However, China has not imported US soybeans yet, and Sino - US trade relations are still uncertain, so US soybean export demand faces great uncertainty. The expected seasonal decline in domestic imported soybeans may lead to a peak - to - decline in domestic soybean oil inventory [4] - Palm oil: MP0A and SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% and 2.42% month - on - month respectively. ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in September increased by 9.6% and 7.3% month - on - month respectively. The market expects a slight decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September. Indonesia's biodiesel demand for palm oil is expected to increase. GAKPI data shows that from January to July 2025, Indonesia's domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil was 7.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 793,000 tons. If Indonesia enforces the B85 biodiesel policy in 2026, the domestic biodiesel consumption of palm oil will reach 20.1 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of about 29% [4] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by China's restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and the fact that Russian rapeseed has not been widely available on the market, the expected volume of domestic rapeseed imports is low, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [4]

Group 1 - The ongoing "government shutdown" in the U.S. has led to significant challenges, affecting over 1.3 million military personnel who have not received their pay, causing some families to seek food assistance [1] - The economic impact of the shutdown has resulted in over $15 billion in losses, while the U.S. debt situation is becoming increasingly difficult, with a decline in confidence from global investors, particularly as China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt for eight consecutive months [1] - The U.S. defense sector is experiencing leadership resignations, raising concerns about potential chaos within the military if the shutdown continues [1] Group 2 - European countries, particularly Italy and Switzerland, are reassessing their relationships with the U.S. and exploring closer cooperation with China, indicating a shift in sentiment towards the U.S. [3] - Former President Trump has expressed urgency regarding the housing market, criticizing major real estate firms and urging them to accelerate construction projects to address high housing prices, likening them to monopolistic organizations [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has indicated that high-level discussions between the U.S. and China will take place during the upcoming APEC meeting, focusing on critical issues such as soybean trade, which has seen a significant decline in imports from China [4] Group 3 - The U.S. is in a more urgent position regarding trade relations with China, as it seeks cooperation to alleviate economic pressures, although China has not yet formally responded to U.S. requests [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, who previously expressed satisfaction with tariffs, has now indicated that significant breakthroughs are expected in U.S.-China trade negotiations, suggesting a shift in stance due to internal pressures [1][3][11] - The recent lack of soybean purchases by China, which has reached zero for the first time since records began in 1999, highlights the urgency of addressing agricultural trade issues [5][9] - The decline in U.S. soybean prices by 23% this year, coupled with competitive pressures from Argentina, has intensified the economic challenges faced by American farmers [7][9][19] Economic Impact - The U.S. soybean association estimates that farmers are facing losses of $100 to $150 per acre, indicating severe financial distress for agricultural families [7][9] - Argentina's suspension of export taxes has made its soybeans more competitive, leading to a shift in Chinese purchases away from U.S. products [9][21] - The political ramifications of these economic issues are significant, as agricultural states are crucial to the Republican base, and farmer dissatisfaction could impact upcoming elections [11][19] Political Dynamics - The upcoming midterm elections are creating pressure for the U.S. administration to deliver satisfactory outcomes for farmers, as failure to do so could jeopardize electoral support [11][19] - The shift in U.S. trade policy may be influenced by lobbying from business leaders concerned about declining profits and rising consumer costs due to tariffs [15][19] - The potential for a limited agreement in trade negotiations may involve selective tariff reductions in exchange for increased Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products [21][23] Strategic Considerations - The U.S. may seek to balance domestic economic needs with ongoing strategic goals to contain China's technological advancements, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [23][24] - China's resilience and market significance are underscored by the U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent comments, suggesting that negotiations will require a focus on mutual benefits rather than unilateral concessions [24][25] - The evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations reflect a recognition that extreme pressure tactics have not yielded the desired outcomes, necessitating a return to dialogue [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on Sino-US negotiations in the fourth quarter. Without new agreements, the outer market will remain range - bound at the bottom. With effective agreements, it will rebound above the cost line. The upside of the domestic soybean sector is limited by high inventory, and the downside is supported by purchase costs. The previous trading logic of a domestic soybean supply gap has weakened, and Brazilian soybean planting will add pressure in the fourth quarter. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal in the fourth quarter. Before November, rapeseed meal may be stronger than soybean meal due to the extension of anti - dumping investigations on rapeseed. After November, it will face the arrival of Australian rapeseed, and inventory may increase by the end of the year. - The overall market trend is expected to be range - bound, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2800 - 3200 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The outer market is affected by Sino - US negotiations and export orders. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and supported by purchase costs. The previous supply - gap logic has weakened [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal. Before November, it may be stronger due to anti - dumping investigations. After November, inventory may increase [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Range - bound oscillation. - **Price Range**: M2601 oscillates between 2800 - 3200. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or exit previous long positions; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Trend Judgement**: Range - bound oscillation. - **Price Range**: M2601 oscillates between 2800 - 3200. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - **Trading Strategy**: Reduce or exit previous long positions; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options. - **Basis Strategy**: Use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk, and expect the basis to turn positive and strengthen. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Consider a positive spread strategy for M3 - 5 at lows (150, 160). - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 at highs (650, 700) [18][20][24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: Includes closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [26]. - **Spreads**: Covers various spreads such as futures spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: Lists import costs, daily and weekly changes, and pressing profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US weather is favorable for crop maturity and harvest in some areas but may affect transportation. China's soybean and rapeseed import forecasts are adjusted. Brazilian weather is favorable for soybean sowing in the south but dry in the central region [28][29]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean export declarations reach a seven - year high. Chinese importers have ordered a large amount of Argentine soybeans. Brazilian soybean sowing is accelerating [30]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Includes USDA reports on export inspections, crop growth, quarterly inventory, export sales, and oilseed pressing, as well as the CFTC agricultural product position report [39]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: Soybean meal prices dropped due to Argentina's export policy, then rebounded slightly. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal but was relatively stronger. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable seats are mainly hedging seats, and foreign capital seats increased short positions. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 calendar spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal weakened due to the decline of the 01 contract. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened, and the spot spread between them narrowed [36][38][51]. - **Foreign Market**: - **Foreign Market Trend**: The outer and domestic markets diverged. The outer market was affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and Argentina's export policy. - **Capital Positions**: The net position of CBOT soybean management funds decreased and oscillated around the zero axis [66][72]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - US soybean production area pressing profits are strong due to biodiesel policies. South American production areas' pressing profits are falling. Canadian rapeseed pressing profits are neutral [78]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - Brazilian soybean pressing profits are positive but declining. China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans. Rapeseed imports offer pressing profits, but purchases will be cautious due to import margins [82]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - crop balance sheet shows that production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. Demand for crushing will increase, and export is weak. Ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [88]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean imports will decline in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. Soybean meal production will also decline, with 2 - 3 vessels of imports expected [90]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean crushing will remain high in the fourth quarter but will decline. Soybean meal consumption will have limited growth after high - level stocking [93]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at seasonal highs but will decline in the fourth quarter [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is currently in a weak and volatile state. In the short - term, there may be a downward trend due to large domestic supply pressure and no clear positive factors in the cost side. In the medium - term, the overall global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. [2][3][4] - The oil market is in a state of current supply - demand balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is expected to be in a medium - term volatile and upward trend, and the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization. [6][8] - The sugar market is generally bearish in the long - term, but in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to technical factors. [9][10] - The cotton market is influenced by both bearish factors such as weak downstream demand and bullish factors like low domestic inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [13][14] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [16][17] - For pigs, the short - term trend is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, US soybeans fluctuated with low valuation and few positive factors. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the price in East China at 2,900 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1892 million tons, and the port soybean inventory increased to 9.385 million tons, expected to peak but remain at a high level. This week, the expected crushing volume is 1.76 million tons. [2] - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal after achieving its export target, which still has a large impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazil's soybean planting progress is relatively fast, reaching 3.2% as of last Thursday, and the premium is temporarily stable. [3] Strategy View - The domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's export tax has driven the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. Currently, the soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. [4] Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but then increased month - on - month in the subsequent periods. The palm oil production decreased month - on - month in the same period. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months and reach about 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year. [6] - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The recent decline in oils is due to weak palm oil exports from Malaysia and short - term price cuts in Argentina. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. [6] Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decrease in exportable volume of palm oil in Southeast Asia support the oil price center. The oil market is in a state of current balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is recommended to buy on dips and stabilization in the medium - term. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot price of sugar in some regions decreased or remained stable. [9] - Consultancy firm StoneX predicts that the sugar cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.4 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons year - on - year, and that in India is expected to be 32.3 million tons, an increase of 6.2 million tons year - on - year. [9] Strategy View - Affected by factors such as the record - high sugar imports in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the sugar price is generally bearish. However, from a technical perspective, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day. [9][10] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also decreased. [12] - As of September 26, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. [13] Strategy View - Although it is the peak consumption season, the downstream operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low, which may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased to 3.45 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average. It is expected that the egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in most areas today. [16] Strategy View - The spot price is expected to decline further. The near - month contracts of the futures market are weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. The supply side may improve marginally, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 11.79 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce prices weakened, and the pig supply may be stable or decrease. The demand is at a high level and shows no sign of further increase. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively balanced today, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. [19] Strategy View - The short - term trend of the pig market is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of sufficient spot supply of soybean meal and a narrowing supply gap in the long - term, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be mainly in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [5]. - The U.S. soybeans have entered the concentrated harvesting period with normal progress. Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and most of the main producing areas will have good rainfall in the next two weeks, which is suitable for sowing. The Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal but later resumed the withholding tax on agricultural products such as grains after reaching the quota. China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of soybeans for November - December shipments from Argentina at low prices, narrowing the supply gap of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, which is a long - term negative factor for soybean meal. The China - U.S. trade relationship remains a focus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral Strategy**: The pressure level of soybean meal 2601 is recommended to refer to 3100 - 3200. For options, it is advisable to go long on volatility [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the weather conditions in the U.S. soybean producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, the domestic demand for soybean meal, and the China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the medium and long term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Last week, soybean meal futures were in a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to Argentina's temporary cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the planting area by 200,000 acres, raised the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and reduced the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from 290 million bushels in August to 300 million bushels [16]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a relatively low level in history. It is recommended to wait and see. The 1 - 5 price difference of soybean meal was in a weak and volatile trend, and it is also recommended to wait and see [23][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **U.S. Soybean Sales Data**: As of September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [33]. - **U.S. Soybean Pressing Data**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the U.S. soybean pressing profit was $3.22 per bushel, a 2.55% increase from the previous week and a 6.94% decrease compared to the same period last year [37]. - **China's Soybean Import Volume**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% [40]. - **China's Rapeseed Import Volume**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [42]. - **China's Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Data**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [46][48][50]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Pig Price and Breeding Profit**: Relevant data charts of China's commercial pig slaughter price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and外购 profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [54][58]. - **Chicken Breeding Profit**: Relevant data charts of white - feather broiler breeding profit and laying hen breeding profit are provided, but no specific text summary data is given [63]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of September 19, the national port soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a 5.26% decrease from the previous week and a 1.02% increase compared to last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, a 7.35% increase from the previous week and a 14.28% decrease compared to last year [69]. - **Domestic Feed - Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days**: As of September 26, 2025 (week 39), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 9.60 days, a 1.83% increase from September 19 and a 6.68% increase compared to the same period last year [72]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of September 19, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 41,500 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week [74].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]