间或受限。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | 25 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19725 | -15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -37743 | -5128 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 65 | -94 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 538557 | 96 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 16083 | 1669 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10815 | -20 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 2 | | 现货市场 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/10 | 待定 中国5月金融数据 | 6/11 20:30 美国5月CPI、核心CPI | | --- | --- | | 6/12 20:30 美国5月PPI、核心PPI；美国截至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9188 | 6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2629 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 142 289086 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -2291 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 552069 | 10 10019 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 42967 | 5349 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11713 | 994 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 26649 | -415 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 694.6 | 2.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5066 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US trade relationship shows signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market. However, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under tariff impacts. The economic fundamentals are under pressure, limiting the upside space of the broader market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for large - cap blue - chip stocks to perform strongly. Small and medium - cap technology stocks with low valuations are expected to rise in the short term. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short single - side trades and try the arbitrage strategy of going long IC/IM and short IF/IH [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) is at 3867.8, up 14.0; IF next main contract (2509) is at 3802.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2506) is at 2676.6, up 3.8; IH next main contract (2509) is at 2641.4, up 6.0. IC main contract (2506) is at 5766.4, up 45.8; IC next main contract (2509) is at 5584.6, up 54.2. IM main contract (2506) is at 6167.8, up 73.6; IM next main contract (2509) is at 5912.6, up 77.2 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1191.2, up 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1898.6, up 28.6. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 401.4, up 26.6; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3089.8, up 38.0. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2300.0, up 55.2; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3491.2, up 64.6 [2] - IF quarterly - current month is - 65.4, up 6.6; IF next - quarter - current month is - 97.8, up 11.6. IH quarterly - current month is - 35.2, up 2.0; IH next - quarter - current month is - 34, up 4.2. IC quarterly - current month is - 181.8, up 8.4; IC next - quarter - current month is - 306, up 11.6. IM quarterly - current month is - 255.2, up 4.2; IM next - quarter - current month is - 432.6, up 6.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 28,228.00, up 443.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,105.00, down 123.0. IC top 20 net position is - 7,964.00, down 1837.0; IM top 20 net position is - 29,143.00, up 174.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3885.25, up 11.3; IF main contract basis is - 17.4, up 1.1. SSE 50 is at 2686.83, down 2.0; IH main contract basis is - 10.2, up 5.0. CSI 500 is at 5805.65, up 43.6; IC main contract basis is - 39.3, down 2.6. CSI 1000 is at 6218.96, up 66.1; IM main contract basis is - 51.2, up 1.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 13,126.55, up 1354.42; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 18,085.96, down 30.84. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 1249.86, down 171.83; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) is 0.0, up 1738.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) are + 3.93, down 265.05. MLF data is not provided. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 76.13, up 28.09; Shibor (daily, %) is 1.378, down 0.033 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) is 23.00, up 1.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) is 12.06, down 0.43. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) is 52.40, down 10.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) is 11.92, down 0.05 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) is 9.24, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) (6.6) is 54.89, down 2.38; position PCR (%) (6.6) is 67.17, down 0.13 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 7.30, up 2.50; technical aspect score is 7.60, up 2.80; capital aspect score is 7.00, up 2.20 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value was a 0.1% increase). PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value was a 2.7% decrease) and 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, a 7.2% year - on - year increase; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. In May, the total goods trade import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [2] - A - share major indices generally closed higher. The three major indices opened and rose in the morning and maintained high levels in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached 3400 points. Small and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased. Most industry sectors rose, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector strengthening significantly, and only the food and beverage sector falling against the market [2] 3.7 Key Data to Watch - China's May financial data is to be determined on 6/11 at 20:30. US May CPI and core CPI will be released on 6/11 at 20:30. US May PPI, core PPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released on 6/12 at 20:30 [3]

上周国内权益市场延续震荡走势，万得全A周涨幅1.61%，日均成交量维持在1.2万亿元附近。具体来 看，创业板、中证2000、和中证1000涨幅靠前。上周港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数均上涨2.2%。从行 业来看，上周通信、有色金属和电子上涨较多，交通运输、食品饮料和家电下跌较多。 事实上，自5月12日中美日内瓦会谈结束后，过去的4个交易周里，万得全A维持窄幅震荡，区间涨幅为 1.68%，区间振幅仅为2.84%。《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布后，双方承诺互相取消 91%的关税， 互相暂停24%的关税90天，仅保留4月2日以来10%的对等关税。然而从过去一个月的协议落实情况观 察，美方陆续新增出台多项对华限制措施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件 （EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。接下来将举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，意味着未 来中美沟通的领域将更加丰富。泓德基金认为，接下来的一周，全球资本市场会高度关注中美在英国会 谈结果。 从债券市场看，上周债市整体走出窄幅震荡状态，收益率"短强长弱"、曲线走陡。信用债收益率下行为 主。泓德基金分析，展望下一阶段，尽管目前市场对关税谈判逐步脱敏，但中美 ...

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E | 现值 | 2240 | 1155 | 5606 | 1718 | 693 d | 1667 | | CALL 运 | 前值 | 2073 | 1118 | 5172 | 1720 | 6243 | 1587 | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.09% | 3.34% | 8.39% | -0.12% | 11.15% | 5.04% | | ਵਿ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先 得！ 周末大事 何立峰将访问英国并举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 外交部发言人宣布：应英国政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8 日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 商务部：对稀土实施出口管制符合国际通行做法 已依法批准一定数量的合规申请 商务部新闻发言人就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问表示，稀土相关物项具有军民两用属 性，对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。随着机器人、新能源汽车等行业发展，各国对中 重稀土在民用领域的需求量正持续增长。中国作为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域 的合理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量 的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口 管制沟通对话，促进便利合规贸易。 商务部：目前中欧双方电动汽车案价格承诺磋商进入最后阶段 但仍需双方努力 商务部新闻发言人就王文涛部长赴法国期间与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇会 谈答记者问。 问：电动汽车反补贴案的价格承诺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].