Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply from the US is expected to decrease in mid - late May as the tariff grace period for "in - transit goods" ends, while the Middle East will maintain high output. China's demand may decline due to high tariffs, and India's demand is expected to increase. The EIA inventory has risen, and the price shows a pattern of FEI with butane stronger than propane and May CP with propane stronger than butane. After May 13th, the US exports to China may significantly decrease, and the future situation in Japan and India needs further attention [10]. - **Methanol**: The supply, including domestic production, imports, and traditional downstream, is under pressure. The demand from downstream and olefins is weakening. The inventory situation shows that the support of low inventory for the basis is weakening. The price structure is weak, and the overall pattern of methanol is bearish. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the price above 2300 points in the long - term is under pressure [56]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of PP and PE has support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, but the demand is weakening as it enters the off - season. The inventory, cost, and price structure show certain characteristics. Affected by oil prices and tariff policies, the market sentiment is poor, and the polyolefin market is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [124]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG - **Supply** - **US**: The "in - transit goods" tariff exemption is about to end, and the output will gradually decrease in mid - late May, with the export focus shifting to other regions [10][14]. - **Middle East**: It is expected to maintain a strong output pattern to China and India in May [10][22]. - **Demand** - **Asia**: South Korea's demand is poor, and Japan will receive a large amount of US LPG in May [29]. - **China and India**: The arrival volume of US LPG will decrease in mid - late May, and India is turning to the US to purchase cheaper propane [35]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 2, the US propane and propylene inventory level has risen for the third consecutive week, and the production has slightly decreased but is still higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Price and Structure** - **Price**: As of May 8, FEI propane prices were stable, and butane prices were relatively strong. The May CP price of propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and butane decreased by 15 dollars/ton [10]. - **Structure**: The FEI - MOPJ spread widened, and the CP propylene - butane spread widened, reflecting China's attempt to find alternative supplies [10]. Methanol - **Supply** - **Domestic**: Short - term maintenance is rare, and the high - level supply pressure will be maintained. The weekly average output in late May is expected to slightly decrease to the range of 95 - 100 tons [56]. - **Import**: The arrival is increasing, and the pressure of import recovery will gradually appear in May. The overseas overall start - up has slightly declined [56]. - **Traditional**: The start - up of formaldehyde and acetic acid is at a high level, but the start - up of MTBE continues to decline [56]. - **Demand** - **Downstream**: The olefin load has decreased due to coal - chemical maintenance. As of May 8, the MTO start - up rate was 75.99% (- 2.08%) [56]. - **Inland**: The inland market has entered the off - season with low inventory [56]. - **Inventory** - **Inland**: As of May 7, the sample inventory of inland production enterprises was 30.39 tons (+ 2.06), and the pending orders were 23.78 tons (- 1.19) [56]. - **Port**: As of May 9, the total inventory was 61.9 tons (+ 0.1), and the negotiable inventory was 21.2 tons (- 1.2). The support of low inventory for the basis is weakening [56]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The near - end basis in East China is around 09 + 150/160, and the spread MA9 - 1 = - 63 ( + 2 compared with before the holiday) [56]. - **PP - 3MA**: As of May 9, 09MTO = 286 ( + 6 compared with before the holiday), and the spread trend is difficult to predict [56]. Polyolefins - **Supply**: The start - up rates of PP and PE are 80.2% (+ 3.9%) and 79.2% (- 1.95%) respectively as of May 8. There is support from coal - chemical summer maintenance, and attention should be paid to the PDH start - up and the impact of tariff policies on PE imports from the US [124]. - **Demand**: The start - up of PP downstream industries has seasonally declined, and the start - up of PE downstream industries has also weakened, with the industry entering the off - season [124]. - **Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of the two major oil companies was 79 tons (- 1.5), and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion speed after the holiday [124]. - **Cost**: The oil price performance is poor, and the support for polyolefin valuation is limited [124]. - **Price and Structure** - **Basis and Spread**: The PP9 - 1 = 81 yuan/ton ( + 23 compared with before the holiday), and L9 - 1 = 65 yuan/ton ( + 4 compared with before the holiday) [124]. - **PP - L**: As of May 9, 09PP - L = - 9 yuan/ton ( + 33 compared with before the holiday), and the spread is dominated by the difference in the fluctuation range of the two varieties [124].

上周受渤化等装置提负影响，PVC产能利用率环比+0.70%至79.33%。上周管材开工率环比+1.05%至 48.34%，型材开工率环比-6.5%至34.15%。 截至5月8日，PVC社会库存新（41家）样本统计环比减少0.41%至65.10万吨，对外出口集中交付依旧带 动市场库存去化。 5月8日PVC常州市场价4660元/吨（-40），主力基差-179元/吨(+3），广州市场价4790元/吨（0），杭州 市场价4730元/吨（-40）。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年5月9日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4805元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持182689 手。 本周（5月6日-5月9日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4930元/吨，最高触及4960元/吨，最低下探至 4800元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.54%。 消息面回顾： 中辉期货：供给端，1月新增新浦化学50万吨装置投产。供给端高位承压，产能利用率为79%。需求 端，房地产竣工面积降幅收窄，下游开工率季节性下降。出口方面，2025年1-3月PVC累计出口98万 吨，累计同比+56%，5月台塑报价环比持平。综上，开工继续上行，上游累库，仓单持续注册， ...

期货热点追踪 炎热干燥的天气威胁小麦生产，中国罕见大量进口小麦，市场供需将有何变化？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to have an oscillatory trend [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased due to the US's attempt to curb oil flow, leading to reduced supply from Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya. The US's expanded sanctions have increased market concerns and caused oil prices to rebound. The oil market will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories decreased. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle Eastern summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased. With the improvement of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate, and terminal demand is supported, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by increased supply [3]. - **Polyester**: PTA, EG, and PX futures prices rose on Thursday. PTA's load decreased and then is expected to rise. The overall ethylene glycol start - up load increased. Some MEG devices restarted or plan to shut down. The production and sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta are weak. The prices of PX and PTA will follow cost fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is relatively resistant to decline [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The start - up loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The rubber market fundamentals are weak, but the delayed rubber tapping in Thailand will support prices in the short term [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed certain trends. In May, domestic supply is expected to increase, while demand will remain relatively stable, and price support will weaken [6]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the average national price of polypropylene (PP) was reported, and the prices of polyethylene (PE) in different regions decreased. Supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but demand will enter the off - season, and the decline in inventory will slow down. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The real estate construction off - season will drag down the demand for PVC downstream products, and exports may decline. In May, the PVC market fundamentals are loose, and prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 8th and 9th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC's oil production in April may have slightly decreased, despite the relaxation of voluntary production cuts. The organization plans to accelerate production increases in May and June, but the impact of the US's restrictions on Iran and Venezuela remains uncertain. Kazakhstan has no plan to cut crude oil and condensate production in May [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are provided, showing the basis trends over the years [28][32][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products, such as the spreads between 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 contracts of fuel oil [44][45][46]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spread charts between different varieties are presented, including the spreads between domestic and foreign crude oil, B - W spreads of crude oil, and the spreads between fuel oil and asphalt [60][64][65]. - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [68][69][72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Report 1: Zinc Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bearish outlook [1] 2. Core View - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - Due to the trade war, Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates. After China imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Teck's lead - zinc concentrates from the Red Dog mine in Alaska became a "victim" of the Sino - US trade conflict. The company's business team is evaluating various solutions [1] Supply - Mining enterprise profits are affected by tariff policies, with single - ton profits shrinking from over 6,000 to around 4,000. However, TC prices have not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. The supply side is generally becoming looser, and the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting and integrated enterprises is extremely low [2] Demand - The peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end. Galvanizing shows low capacity utilization and production, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline in the short term. In the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide markets, demand is weak [3] Conclusion - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, short - term supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is an overall surplus, so it should be viewed bearishly [3] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short; if there is no rebound, the downside space is limited [4] Report 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Short after a rebound; Stainless steel - Hold [5] 2. Core View - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In the first week of May 2025, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore (CIF) increased by $1.1 per metric ton, while the price of 1.2% grade nickel ore (CIF) remained stable. Some processed product prices declined [5] Supply - Indonesia has increased mining royalties, and the price at the mine end is firm. The probability of the mine end becoming looser is high. The profit of ferronickel produced from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while the profit from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel remains at a high level, and the cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline [5] Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point for external - purchasing manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [6] Conclusion - Although the Sino - US trade concerns remain, market sentiment has eased. Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term, but the fundamental trend of surplus remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable [6] Operation Suggestion - Short [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's 2024 financial report indicates continued growth, but the company has set a surprising revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, marking the first single-digit growth expectation in eight years and the second lowest since its listing [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth Expectations - The revenue growth target for 2025 is a significant adjustment from the previous range of 10.5% to 15% set since 2017, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [1]. - The decline in wholesale prices of Moutai has put the long-standing "Moutai faith" under unprecedented pressure, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer confidence have directly impacted Moutai, as it is highly sensitive to economic conditions, with reduced demand for high-end consumption, business events, and gifting [1][2]. - The luxury and high-end consumption sectors are experiencing a shift from impulsive buying to more cautious decision-making, affecting Moutai's sales [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - Moutai has historically maintained a "tight balance" in the market through strict control of production and a complex distribution system, but recent increases in direct sales and supply have led to price declines amid weak demand [2][4]. - The financial attributes associated with Moutai have diminished, as the expectation of continuous price increases has proven unsustainable, leading to a reassessment of its value [2][4]. Group 4: Brand Strategy and Future Challenges - Moutai is attempting to diversify its product offerings by introducing cross-border products like ice cream and chocolate, targeting younger consumers, though the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [4]. - The company faces significant challenges from changing consumer preferences, generational shifts, and increased competition within the industry [4][5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net earnings for Q2 2025 increased to $10.2 million from $6.9 million a year ago, with earnings per share rising to $0.52 from $0.35 [5] - Gross profit for the quarter rose to $24.5 million, an increase of 8.8% year-over-year, while gross margin expanded to 12.3% from 11.3% [8] - Cash flow from operations used $3.3 million in the quarter compared to providing $1.4 million last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments for the quarter increased by 0.9% year-over-year and sequentially from Q1 [5] - Average selling prices declined by 2.2% year-over-year but rose by 0.1% sequentially from Q1 [6] - G&A expenses increased to $10.8 million or 10.7% of net sales, compared to $7.9 million or 7.2% of net sales in the prior year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The supply of wire rod in the US market has become more constrained, leading to price increases of approximately $150 per ton during Q1 [7] - The architectural billing index (ABI) ratio score was 45.5%, indicating declining billings, while the Dodge Amendment Index saw a decrease of 0.9% in March [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on securing an adequate supply of raw materials to minimize potential disruptions to operations [7] - The recent tariff strategy has been viewed positively, as it applies to imports of PC Strand, eliminating previous inequities [25] - The company has lowered its full-year capital expenditure target to $17 million from $22 million due to acquisitions and integration activities [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about market outlook, supported by strong demand and shipment trends [17] - There are uncertainties related to US trade policies and potential economic fallout from tariff strategies [18] - The company is aware of risks related to the administration's tariff policies but is positioned to maximize shipments and optimize costs [35] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.1 million of its common equity, equal to approximately 40,000 shares [16] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 23.2%, slightly up from 22.5% last year [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company viewing and managing the broader operating environment? - Management noted a distinct acceleration in business beginning in Q1, with robust conditions expected to continue [39] Question: What are the thoughts on the disconnect between macro indicators and on-the-ground conditions? - Management acknowledged the lack of objective data but emphasized solid quotation activity and customer optimism [43] Question: How is the company thinking about pricing in the current environment? - Management indicated that the extension of tariffs to PC Strand is positive, but US steel prices remain higher than world market prices [48] Question: How does the current situation compare to the disruptions seen during COVID? - Management stated that the underlying fundamentals today are much more solid than during the COVID recovery [58] Question: Will there be ASP growth year-over-year next quarter? - Management believes it would be hard to see a deterioration in ASP growth during Q3 [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].